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Wild Card, Pre-ALDS Gameday Thread
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 5, 2016 5:55:23 GMT -5
Tim Britton @timbritton 17 u Clay Buchholz is pitching Game Three for the Red Sox.
Not sure how I feel about this. I rather see E-Rod.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 5, 2016 6:22:52 GMT -5
Tim Britton @timbritton 17 u Clay Buchholz is pitching Game Three for the Red Sox. Not sure how I feel about this. I rather see E-Rod. Buchholz has been a bit better lately and has the ability to go deeper in games.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Oct 5, 2016 7:59:06 GMT -5
Tim Britton @timbritton 17 u Clay Buchholz is pitching Game Three for the Red Sox. Not sure how I feel about this. I rather see E-Rod. Buchholz has been a bit better lately and has the ability to go deeper in games. Agree. Also, Buchholz has had some post season experience. I watched the O's postgame show last night and Rick Dempsey was fuming over why Showalter didn't at least use Bundy in that last inning.
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Post by Coreno on Oct 5, 2016 8:23:31 GMT -5
Also makes the rotation R, L, R, L.
Btw has anyone realized that if it came to it, game 5 would be the Cy Young game, with the Porcello v. Kluber?
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 5, 2016 8:33:56 GMT -5
At the very least, Buck should have brought Britton in for Encarnacion with runners on 1st and 3rd.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Oct 5, 2016 8:53:45 GMT -5
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Post by Coreno on Oct 5, 2016 8:59:11 GMT -5
At the very least, Buck should have brought Britton in for Encarnacion with runners on 1st and 3rd. They also could have opted to face Joey Bats with the bases loaded to have a force at every base, instead of pitching to Edwin at all. I know Bautista already had a homerun in the game and definitely could have had the same result, but he's probably less of a threat at this point in time.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 5, 2016 9:17:05 GMT -5
I absolutely dread the season where the Red Sox lose a wild card game, especially if they're playing at home and won an extra 5 games over the 2nd wild card team. I hope it never happens. I hate the play-in game. The trade off for having so many more teams competing down the stretch is making the playoffs a lot more random and less meaningful.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 5, 2016 9:52:17 GMT -5
OK, I'll plead ignorance here. Saw this all over my Twitter timeline last night and don't get the reference. Help a guy out? I'll take the beating that comes with this post if I'm missing an obvious one here.
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 5, 2016 10:00:32 GMT -5
Just do yourself a favor and watch The Wire Season 1.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 5, 2016 11:09:05 GMT -5
Just do yourself a favor and watch The Wire Season 1. Ah, got it. Thanks. The Wire's on my list of TV I need to watch. I basically haven't watched any of the "essential" TV shows other than Mad Men. Offseason should help with that.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 5, 2016 11:09:52 GMT -5
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 5, 2016 11:15:34 GMT -5
Just got 2 tickets for alcs home game 2, RF Box!
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 5, 2016 11:35:45 GMT -5
The Red Sox/Indians game on Friday is the 4:38 game. Booo! Totally screwed by this. Have tickets to the Pats game Sunday but our plan does not land until about 15 minutes before games time for the Sox or I would have grabbed tickets for that too. Boo Urns!
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 5, 2016 11:57:10 GMT -5
Just do yourself a favor and watch The Wire Season 1. Ah, got it. Thanks. The Wire's on my list of TV I need to watch. I basically haven't watched any of the "essential" TV shows other than Mad Men. Offseason should help with that. Man how I envy anyone who still hasn't watched The Wire, it's so good it makes you wish time travel was a thing just so you could go back in time and watch it again for the first time.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Oct 5, 2016 12:14:53 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 5, 2016 12:19:02 GMT -5
There are lots of interviews with David Simon online, as well, all fascinating and highly recommended.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 5, 2016 12:38:57 GMT -5
WPA is such a cool stat when used correctly (as it is here). Good find!
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2016 12:40:28 GMT -5
At the very least, Buck should have brought Britton in for Encarnacion with runners on 1st and 3rd. They also could have opted to face Joey Bats with the bases loaded to have a force at every base, instead of pitching to Edwin at all. I know Bautista already had a homerun in the game and definitely could have had the same result, but he's probably less of a threat at this point in time. Actually, that situation has been studied, and 1st and 3rd is generally the way you want it, not bases full. Teams hit better with the bases full because they know the opposing pitcher wants to avoid a walk; in a walk-off situation that's amplified. You'd make an exception with a pitcher with tremendous control who also does throw ground balls.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 5, 2016 12:41:16 GMT -5
I just saw an article that echoes what I've been thinking and saying for a few weeks now: I realize it's a huge request of a relatively recent rookie, but Benintendi's best fit in the lineup is in the #2 spot right now. It would demand OB skills of him more than power skills, which I think might lead him to better performance at this early stage of his career, and with him in the #2 spot the lineup against Cleveland's RH-dominated pitching staff writes itself:
Pedroia Benintendi Betts Ortiz Ramirez JBJ Bogaerts Leon Shaw/Holt
Young bats for Benintendi if it comes to it against Miller in the 9th, and Hill bats for Shaw/Holt I guess.
One could switch Bogaerts and JBJ if desired, though it keeps the lineup alternating throughout to deal with relief juggling in the 6th/7th/8th. Maybe that might not be as much of an issue though, because Cleveland's staff Miller, whose role is pre-ordained, and not a whole lot of other LH weapons, so other LH would probably be saved to pitch to Ortiz.
Yes, it's a big responsibility to load onto AB. But it makes so much sense.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2016 12:53:19 GMT -5
WPA is such a cool stat when used correctly (as it is here). Good find! I love it when people do insane amounts of work to realize fairly simple conceptual goals. This one involved running 121.35 million season simulations to derive a set of 2427 Championship Leverage Index ratings, and then applying the proper CLI to every one of over 190,000 plays.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2016 13:03:16 GMT -5
I just saw an article that echoes what I've been thinking and saying for a few weeks now: I realize it's a huge request of a relatively recent rookie, but Benintendi's best fit in the lineup is in the #2 spot right now. It would demand OB skills of him more than power skills, which I think might lead him to better performance at this early stage of his career, and with him in the #2 spot the lineup against Cleveland's RH-dominated pitching staff writes itself: Pedroia Benintendi Betts Ortiz Ramirez JBJ Bogaerts Leon Shaw/Holt Young bats for Benintendi if it comes to it against Miller in the 9th, and Hill bats for Shaw/Holt I guess. One could switch Bogaerts and JBJ if desired, though it keeps the lineup alternating throughout to deal with relief juggling in the 6th/7th/8th. Maybe that might not be as much of an issue though, because Cleveland's staff Miller, whose role is pre-ordained, and not a whole lot of other LH weapons, so other LH would probably be saved to pitch to Ortiz. Yes, it's a big responsibility to load onto AB. But it makes so much sense. I like it, but I like the one with AB 5th quite a bit better. (Xander's table-setting is really wasted in yours.) Hanley is actually below average at providing his teammates RBI opportunities (because he's selfishly knocking them in himself!). You really want to follow him with a second leadoff hitter. And the 5 hitter generally fits that description; after you put your best 4 hitters 1 through 4, in rough order from most table-setter to most RBI guy, you want to start over and do that again 5-6-7. Then weakest hitter, and then the third best of your three guys who are table-setters above all. Really, the lineup I posted earlier is so good I'll post it again. Note how much pressure you put on the opposing pitcher with this top 4. And the more Pedey thinks the guys behind him are studly, the better he hits. Pedroia Betts Ortiz Ramirez Benintendi Bogaerts Bradley Leon / Vazquez Holt / Shaw
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,261
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Post by radiohix on Oct 5, 2016 13:31:58 GMT -5
Just do yourself a favor and watch The Wire Season 1. Ah, got it. Thanks. The Wire's on my list of TV I need to watch. I basically haven't watched any of the "essential" TV shows other than Mad Men. Offseason should help with that. The Wire should be the only thing on your list By far the greatest TV show ever.
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Post by Nick Rabasco2 on Oct 5, 2016 15:54:19 GMT -5
Ah, got it. Thanks. The Wire's on my list of TV I need to watch. I basically haven't watched any of the "essential" TV shows other than Mad Men. Offseason should help with that. The Wire should be the only thing on your list By far the greatest TV show ever. I prefer Breaking Bad as the greatest show ever, but this pretty much sums it up:
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Oct 5, 2016 17:46:07 GMT -5
Just means I have an actual reason to leave work early this time. I can't take off early, but at least I can work from home. Luckily for me I have the day off. Actually I'm retired so I ALWAYS HAVE THE DAY OFF!!! Eat your hearts out! :-)
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