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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 12, 2016 16:50:56 GMT -5
1. Who replaces Papi's bat? Encarnacion is the obvious choice, notwithstanding that he is a RHH and will cost a 1st round draft pick (#26). Could also seek a trade for a LHH 1B such as Eric Hosmer. Where does Sam Travis fit in?
Pablo Sandoval takes Ortiz's spot in the lineup, which improves the defense, and Hanley takes over as DH. Of course it's a downgrade, but there's no improvement that makes sense in terms of benefits versus costs (unless Altanta wants to trade Freddie Feeman for a lot less than he's worth), and they're still good enough to be clear favorites to win the division. If they sign Encarnacion, I'll be able to punt the season. Maybe the team for the foreseeable future. It's that stupid. Note that if you do sign a DH, you have no spot on the roster for a bat to platoon with Sandoval / Shaw / Holt. That's one of the ways you're losing value offensively (the other being that you lose Hanley's non-trivial DH performance premium) with that move, and hence (when combined with a near 1-win defensive downgrade at 1B) you end up paying a ridiculous amount for an extra win or two ... which simply make you a really clear favorite to win the division. Oh, and long before the contract is up you'll likely have a much better player for that lineup spot, for league freaking minimum, in Devers. This team's track record with elite hitting talent has been unreal. It's going to continue. Travis is in AAA trying to work his way into a platoon role. 2. Who's the starting catcher?
CV and Leon should split time more or less equally to begin with. A smart team could identify the pitchers that can exploit Leon's weaknesses. Swihart (the only one with options left) catches in AAA and tries to get himself into the mix and/or re-establish his trade value. 3. Who's the third baseman?
The assumption that Sandoval is a better defender than Shaw is not backed up by data. You sign Sean Rodriguez to platoon with Shaw (with Holt getting some starts on the road), play Sandoval at 1B (where he platoons with Hanley, with Chris Young and Leon at DH), and wait for Moncada. I'm willing to bet that everyone who fears Sandoval as a starter feared Hanley as well (BTW, my prediction last winter for -5 DRS at 1B proved to be on the nose). Again, I invite everyone to consider a batting order versus RHP of Pedroia, Betts, Benintendi, Ramirez, Bradley, Bogaerts, Shaw / Sandoval, Leon / Vazquez, Sandoval / Holt, and look at other playoff teams. Actually look at the stats, too ... JBJ and X are better than the 5th and 6th best hitters on every other team. 4. Do we change any starters? I sure as hell hope not, since that would be senseless. Who would you trade? Not Porcello or Price. E-Rod has insane upside. Pomeranz has some health questions and you'd be selling low on second-half performance (I think he'll be much closer to his SD version if healthy). And no one would give you what Wright is worth. Keeping all six gives you pennant-winning depth. Whoever ends up as #6 probably makes 20 starts. 5. Who fills out the bullpen? Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Ross and the 6th starter (assuming no injuries/trades) seem like locks. I'll assume Smith is not ready to start the year and Taz/Abad are gone. Hembree is out of options. Does Koji and/or Ziegler return for one more year at short money? Can Robbie Scott make the big club or will he ride the shuttle? Is it worth spending big bucks in the bullpen?You re-sign Koji. You probably want to pick up a LHR to complement Ross. Scott is in AAA as a guy who can ride the shuttle. Hembree gets moved the first time everyone is healthy and/or when Smith returns. 6. Which prospects are likely to be traded to fill out the roster? Does Moncada's awful September free him up in Dombrowski's eyes for a trade? What about Leon/JBJ's awful ALDS? Will Benny's trade value be too high to pass on a potential blockbuster?You could trade anyone from 8 down except Hernandez, who will be useful as a shuttle guy, if you have a LHR you want to target. I haven't looked into them at all, but it seems unlikely that you'd give up much of value if you target a guy with c. 2 years of control left. You had a 106-win team (with neutral karma, against neutral opposition), except it may have been better than that because the pitching improved dramatically after Bannister went into the dugout. If they don't understand how good the team is, and start making major moves (let alone ones of the caliber of the Kimbrel trade) ... well, I just don't buy that DDo is that stupid, and the entire analytics department ought to be saying similar stuff to him. Really, the most important change would be to hire a new pitching coach, and come up with a way to essentially take decisions on lifting starters and managing the pen out of JF's hands. For instance, the pitching coach monitors the scouting side, Bannister does all the analytics, they talk continually, and JF's role is to follow them when they agree (which should be most of the time) and be the tie-breaker when they don't. And you pick up his 2018 option only on the condition that he agrees to do that. Eric, I know #1 is hyperbole but still. I don't think EE is a need but to react that strongly to signing one of the top 10 RHH hitters in the game is crazy. Go to the "EE Value Estimation" thread and put your numbers in. Then we'll see. Yeah, like I insisted all winter that Porcello was a proven #2 starter, that Wright was definitely a #3, and that Hanley would be a perfectly adequate (-5) defender at 1B and bounce back as a hitter.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 12, 2016 17:10:32 GMT -5
As good a place as any for this data: a breakdown of every Joe Kelly BFP (including the post-season) after his return as a reliever, by quality of opposition hitter.* I looked at wRC+ this season versus RHP, and divided them into two convenient groups, regulars and part-timers, by the # of PA they had versus RHP.
wRC+ 300+PA < 205 PA 130+ 1/7, K, PU, 2 GB, 1 LD 2/2, 2 LD 110-129 0/15, BB, 6 K, 3 PU, 3 G, 2 LD 0/3, 2 SO, GDP 90-109 2/11, BB, 6 K, PU, 3 GB, LD 1/3, 2 GB 70-89 1/3, BB, HR, PU 1/4, K, 2 GB, LD 50-69 0/1, SO 1/7, 3 K, GB, 2 LD 0-49 0/4, 4 K Above average regulars (110 wRC+) were 1/22 with 7 SO, 4 PU, 5 GB, and 3 LD. He was actually less impressive against the other regulars.
He actually fanned the 6 weakest hitters in the part-timers group, all of whom were worse than any of the regulars. The others had 5 LD in 13 times made contact (.385), versus 4 for 23 (.174) among the regulars. He also fanned 4/17 of the non-terrible part-timers (.235), versus 14/40 (.350) of the regulars. There's a strong suggestion that he benefited from having a book on guys. And his FB% varied widely from appearance to appearance, suggesting they do pitch different guys very differently.
Everything here supports the notion that he can be a great late-inning guy.
*You can copy a FG game log, and every batter has a link you can click on. It takes 15 seconds to grab each guy's data, and he only faced 53.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 12, 2016 20:25:05 GMT -5
"6. Which prospects are likely to be traded to fill out the roster? Does Moncada's awful September free him up in Dombrowski's eyes for a trade? What about Leon/JBJ's awful ALDS? Will Benny's trade value be too high to pass on a potential blockbuster?" I actually think the Sox would be dumb to pass up a chance to sell high on JBJ. I doubt he has another 25+ homerun season in him in the American League. The trade possibilities are endless. You could use him in trade packages for Chris Sale or Lucas Giolito for example. I would then put Benintendi at CF and find a LF replacement, like a Carlos Gonzalez. I guess you could trade JBJ and sign someone without a QO like Carlos Gomez for a corner OF spot, but I wouldn't make that decision based on a 3 game series sample size. JBJ is a very good player. Ohh I know he's a quality player, I was just hoping to shop him around and see what kind of number one pitcher the Sox could get in exchange. The 3 games playoffs mean nothing to me either.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 12, 2016 21:45:18 GMT -5
Not sure what the market will be for Encarnacion, but his agent will have a pretty solid argument that he's a $25+ million a year player, at least if Fangraphs is any guide and he'a a 3.7 to 4.0 fWAR player or more given park effects. He also appears to play an acceptable first base if he doesn't get more than 75 or so games at the position.
I'm not advocating acquiring him or embracing him at this point. But it will be interesting to see what they do. They'll have about $40-53 million coming off the books, but they'll also need to pick up some ancillary pieces, a likely be looking at atleast one extension (Mookie). They will also be looking forward to the 2018 off-season as they do business this winter with (hopefully) a specific strategy, whether it's an eye on free agent player acquisitions after the 2018 season - perhaps one of Harper/Machado/Kershaw/Donaldson/Quintana - and some still expensive but stepped down from the crazy potential buys - including Andrew Miller, Dallas Keuchel, etc. And they'll need a plan within all this to fill Price's roll if he opts out.
Acquiring any of these guys and/or a Price opt out could lead to big trades as we look to fill gaps and eliminate overlap. Ideally this off season will be the first segment of a cohesive strategy aimed at the dynamic of the team from 2017 to 2019. This would be so much fun - and such a challenge to be a part of.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 13, 2016 3:55:39 GMT -5
Shohei Otani-
Will he be the number one player to focus on all off-season or will he be some blurp from Japan saying he won't be posted this year?
This is one of the real questions this off-season. This is the only player I prefer over EE.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 13, 2016 7:15:10 GMT -5
Shohei Otani- Will he be the number one player to focus on all off-season or will he be some blurp from Japan saying he won't be posted this year? This is one of the real questions this off-season. This is the only player I prefer over EE. Why would they post him? He's the best pitcher in the country and only 22.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 13, 2016 7:59:14 GMT -5
Shohei Otani- Will he be the number one player to focus on all off-season or will he be some blurp from Japan saying he won't be posted this year? This is one of the real questions this off-season. This is the only player I prefer over EE. Why would they post him? He's the best pitcher in the country and only 22. Well usually they post their best players when the players directly asked to be posted. Why would the Japanese team he's playing on want to keep a player that clearly doesn't want to play for them anymore? I know he's under contract and all but the team does have a 20 million dollar incentive to let him go to the states and in the end, the money always talks.
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2016 8:05:01 GMT -5
His team has every incentive to wait until he's one year away from free agency before posting him. He's the best and most exciting player in NPB who drives a lot of team success and revenue-- why give that up before you have to?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 13, 2016 8:22:56 GMT -5
His team has every incentive to wait until he's one year away from free agency before posting him. He's the best and most exciting player in NPB who drives a lot of team success and revenue-- why give that up before you have to? Hmm? Maybe the player forces the team's hand and comes out and says he wants to play for the United States? When is Otani's last year before free agency?
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Post by Guidas on Oct 13, 2016 8:43:11 GMT -5
His team has every incentive to wait until he's one year away from free agency before posting him. He's the best and most exciting player in NPB who drives a lot of team success and revenue-- why give that up before you have to? Hmm? Maybe the player forces the team's hand and comes out and says he wants to play for the United States? When is Otani's last year before free agency? I believe he has six more years of service time with his team.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 13, 2016 8:49:14 GMT -5
Hmm? Maybe the player forces the team's hand and comes out and says he wants to play for the United States? When is Otani's last year before free agency? I believe he has six more years of service time with his team. Wow so 4-5 years until the Sox even have a chance to bid on this guy if the team sticks to their guns and keeps Otani? So why is everyone hating the idea of EE again? Who else is worth money this off-season besides free agent relievers?
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2016 8:49:33 GMT -5
His team has every incentive to wait until he's one year away from free agency before posting him. He's the best and most exciting player in NPB who drives a lot of team success and revenue-- why give that up before you have to? Hmm? Maybe the player forces the team's hand and comes out and says he wants to play for the United States? When is Otani's last year before free agency? NPB players have to accrue seven years before domestic free agency (and nine before international free agency) so I think he's something like three or four years away. I'd be very surprised if he was posted this offseason. Otani can say whatever he wants, but he has very little leverage. He's under contract, and there are strong nationalistic/cultural pressures to stay in NPB until he's closer to free agency. Remember, he was the guy who told NPB teams that he didn't want to be drafted and wanted to go amateur-to-MLB, but Nippon drafted him anyways, and he acquiesced.
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Post by p23w on Oct 13, 2016 10:13:25 GMT -5
Lots of good ideas and interesting speculation in this thread. Now that the front office has saved face by making the playoffs (and remained intact) they are somewhat under pressure to validate their moves from this year, going forward into next year. Personally I was very pleased (with one notable exception) of the late season performance of the bullpen. I was disappointed with the performance of the starting pitching both leading up to the playoffs and in the Cleveland series. That said, this team is an offensive juggernaut. I expect the loss of Ortiz will hurt some, but I expect some of that loss will be offset by both the return of Swihart and the Panda, and (dare I say) better seasons from Betts and AB. This is going to be fun. As of today I have no opinion regarding trades or free agent signings, there is always much more that goes into these decisions than meets the outsiders eye. One final observation, coming from a character counts perspective, whilst I was opposed to signing Chapman when he became available from Cincinnati, I very much liked the way he shut down the Giants after the Cubs rallied. I am very tempted to favor throwing money at Chapman. I just love the idea of lock down bullpens, perhaps even more than my character counts sensitivities.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Oct 13, 2016 10:29:13 GMT -5
Just say no to EE! I mean, we saw how the "Big" acquisitions ended up: Crawford, Sandoval, Hanley, Price, Kimbrel... The goal every year is to make the playoffs and I don't see any team in the division challenging us for the AL East title. The Blue Jays: Martin and Tulo have already started their decline, Bautista and EE are leaving via FAcy and even if they stick around they're getting old (Bautista was injured for like half the season). They have a very good rotation but that's about it. The Orioles: They'll lose Trumbo and their starting catcher to FAcy plus their rotation is aweful. The MFY and Rays: LOL I would allocate the extra money to lock some of our young core and see what I could get in terms of relief pitchers (Koji, Taz, Holland...), pick up a reclamation project or 2 and call it a day. I know the team have few questions mainly about the CIF/DH positions but our opponents have much much more.
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jimed14
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 13, 2016 11:03:16 GMT -5
First I heard of this:
Brian MacPherson @brianmacp
Dustin Pedroia underwent surgery on his left knee Wednesday. He's expected to be ready for spring training.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 13, 2016 11:14:41 GMT -5
That's because the Sox just announced it half an hour ago. The full release:
BOSTON, MA – Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia underwent successful left knee arthroscopy yesterday. A partial medial meniscectomy and chondroplasty was performed by Head Team Orthopedist Dr. Peter Asnis at Massachusetts General Hospital. Pedroia is expected to make a full recovery in time for Spring Training 2017.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 13, 2016 11:32:14 GMT -5
The more I think about it the more I like the idea of locking up the Red Sox core as opposed to chasing free agents. They can always find a DH at the trade deadline if they need to.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 13, 2016 12:32:56 GMT -5
They can always find a DH at the trade deadline if they need to. They can?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 13, 2016 15:33:35 GMT -5
I believe he has six more years of service time with his team. Wow so 4-5 years until the Sox even have a chance to bid on this guy if the team sticks to their guns and keeps Otani? So why is everyone hating the idea of EE again? Who else is worth money this off-season besides free agent relievers? Mookie Betts for starters.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Oct 13, 2016 15:46:17 GMT -5
Just say no to EE! I mean, we saw how the "Big" acquisitions ended up: Crawford, Sandoval, Hanley, Price, Kimbrel... The goal every year is to make the playoffs and I don't see any team in the division challenging us for the AL East title. The Blue Jays: Martin and Tulo have already started their decline, Bautista and EE are leaving via FAcy and even if they stick around they're getting old (Bautista was injured for like half the season). They have a very good rotation but that's about it. The Orioles: They'll lose Trumbo and their starting catcher to FAcy plus their rotation is aweful. The MFY and Rays: LOL I would allocate the extra money to lock some of our young core and see what I could get in terms of relief pitchers (Koji, Taz, Holland...), pick up a reclamation project or 2 and call it a day. I know the team have few questions mainly about the CIF/DH positions but our opponents have much much more. Accidentally gave you a "thumbs up". Just wanted to point out that for every bad contract (Crawford, Pablo, ect), there are large contracts that work out (Kershaw, Nellie Cruz, Andrew Miller, A-Gon). Hanley may break even on his deal. I do agree with the weaknesses in our division.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 13, 2016 16:37:07 GMT -5
Wow so 4-5 years until the Sox even have a chance to bid on this guy if the team sticks to their guns and keeps Otani? So why is everyone hating the idea of EE again? Who else is worth money this off-season besides free agent relievers? Mookie Betts for starters. Well Mookie makes the league minimum and is under control for 4 more years. There's plenty of time for that.
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 13, 2016 16:38:32 GMT -5
They can always find a DH at the trade deadline if they need to. They can? Sure. Carlos Beltran will be kicking around for 3-4 more years.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 13, 2016 19:29:56 GMT -5
Re Castillo/Craig, as long as they don't get put on the 40 man, their salaries don't count against the cap. Unless there's a major epiphany, I'd expect them to be minor leaguers for a long time to come or part of another team unless they decide to throw away their contracts which would be foolish.
The 5th rotation spot will be a competition between Buchholz, Wright and Pomeranz with the loser to the pen.
Another corner infielder to remember is Sam Travis who has spent most of the year injured. If he makes the team, we'll have to think about who we're talking about. Holt and Hernandez also play 3B.
I doubt if the Sox will sign Hill, Holaday, Abad or exercise Hanigan's option (Vazquez is out of options). I'm guessing they will re-up Tazawa (arb. eligible), Buchholz (team option) and take a run on signing Koji and Ziegler.
I don't expect a major trade or draft pick loss free agent signing. Maybe a smaller trade like a lefty pen piece for a spare part like Dubon. (Elias gets a shot here or is traded (options problem).
I'm expecting Moncada, Swihart (as a catcher), Owens, Johnson, Dubon, Hernandez and Travis to be in Pawtucket since they all have options. I doubt if Moncada will be up before mid June no matter how he's doing (unless the rules change at the upcoming collective bargaining). I'm expecting Elias to be turned into a reliever.
For other notable prospects, I'm expecting Devers and Kopech to be in Portland. Basabe to be in Salem and Groome, Chatham & Dalbec to be in Greenville.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 13, 2016 23:06:53 GMT -5
1) I would exercise Buchholz's option and keep him as the sixth starter. Price/Porcello/ERod/Wright/Pomeranz. I think Pomeranz just got tired. If he improves a little efficiency-wise, and pitches somewhere in the range I think he will (FIP/ERA in the 3.5 range), he's a good 3, out of the 5. Wright, I think, can maintain as a solid 3, out of the 4. ERod, if healthy, should be a 2 out of the 3. There is absolutely ZERO "need" to upgrade the rotation, and acquiring anyone in the 2 range is likely to provide such minimal benefit as to be a huge waste of resources. Their 4/5 pitchers were historically awful for 2/3 of the season. Even if Price stays the same, and Porcello and Wright regress some, it's still a VERY good bet that their starting pitching is slightly to substantially better.
2) Re-sign Koji. After wearing down, Tazawa might be a cost-effective re-sign. I hope they keep Ziegler, but I think he's gone. Kelly's performance in the past out of the 'pen, and this year, are highly suggestive of him being a good to excellent high-leverage-situation reliever. Barnes made progress, and given his velocity and three pitches, has clear upside provided he takes further steps with command. Ross is very good. With Buchholz in the swing position, Scott becomes the shuttle guy. Smith is probably back later summer (July?). So Hembree has a spot until then. They could use one outstanding 8th-inning lefty. Kimbrel obviously stays put unless Kelly or Barnes suddenly becomes the real deal. Both Buchholz (if one of the AAA troika steps up) and Kimbrel (unlikely, but who knows?) could bring back a lot at the deadline. With Kelly, and Barnes perhaps improving, and Kimbrel hopefully at least mildly better, I think the bullpen will be as good as this year, if not better. Smith is a nice wildcard to have. A couple of buy-low depth "big" arms would be nice to add to Martin et all. Ysla has potential as well.
3) I am strongly opposed to signing Encarnacion. I think Benintendi will give a boost to the offense (and defense) with a full season in LF. I'm unsure about Moncada's readiness by the trade deadline, but I think it's reasonable to expect he'll be up, and can replace Shaw or Panda. I hold out hope that Panda can be a borderline productive player, either at third or first. Hanley should DH most of the time, and I think he'll be a step down from Ortiz, but not a huge one. He's historically hit very well as a DH. So I see moderate drop in production at 1b (Panda or Shaw vs Hanley), and a mild drop at DH (Hanley vs Ortiz). An increase in LF should offset about half of the total drop, particularly with a healthy Young. I can live with that to save $100M and extend Betts, not lose the 26th pick, and have some salary flexibility. I do think they'll need a bat-first backup option. Holt and Hernandez are fair to solid defensive options at 3b, SS, and in the OF (Holt), with Young as the 4th OF.
4) The loss of Ortiz is huge, but the additions of Benintendi and a healthy ERod, Pomeranz, and Buchholz as the 6th starter should offset it by adding some offense, and *preventing* AT LEAST the balance of runs from his absence. In essence, I think their run differential will be similar, or even slightly better. The caveat there is that offense is not linear, so the loss of Ortiz is likely to create a ripple effect. Still, I think they have two established young guys in Betts/Bogaerts, and a ROY candidate, who can help in that dept. Leon coming back to earth is a potential problem, which might be the only thing to tempt me into EE.
5) Moncada should be up at some point, but I don't expect a sudden bump in offense. It wouldn't surprise me, but I wouldn't count on it. Swihart is another offensive/depth wildcard. Travis should provide depth. And Vazquez, healthy, is capable of being starting-caliber, I think. There's a lot of depth there, and I'd be hesitant to trade any of it, especially with the questions about Leon. Moncada looks ticketed for 3b, so the only upgradable spot is 1b. TBH, given the market inefficiency around defense, I'd much rather see them acquire a top-notch defensive 1b than Encarnacion It would be a lot more cost-effective. They still have a lot of talent in the system, and if they traded away veterans at the deadline with young guys stepping up, bat-first minor leaguers (and major-leaguers, really) who are 1b/DH types are undervalued. I think they can wait to fill that spot.
6) Kopech has an outside shot at being up late in the year. Owens and Johnson, too. That may make someone like Pomeranz a fungible trade piece at the deadline, particularly if he pitches well. Buchholz, obviously, too. So I'd prefer that they accumulate relief depth in the offseason, and hold steady on the rotation. If things break right, trade vets for high-upside minor league bats at LF/1b/DH. If things break wrong, they should have ample depth throughout the staff to weather it, and they can revisit the offense at 1b next winter, when they'll have a better idea re: what to expect from Moncada, Travis, Benintendi, et al.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 13, 2016 23:48:50 GMT -5
Mookie Betts for starters. Well Mookie makes the league minimum and is under control for 4 more years. There's plenty of time for that. His point was that they need to think about extending him, among others.
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