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Post by grandsalami on Oct 28, 2016 10:22:07 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 28, 2016 10:27:45 GMT -5
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Post by Coreno on Oct 28, 2016 11:56:46 GMT -5
He looks to be in decent shape, hope he keeps at it.
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Post by tjb21 on Oct 28, 2016 12:30:44 GMT -5
I think he would have a better offensive season than Shaw's 2016.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 28, 2016 13:34:20 GMT -5
Pablo is huge for the Sox in 2017.
I really do believe that Shaw is trade bait this off season and Moncada will need more time in AAA.
It would be awesome if he slimmed down and reestablished his value to make him tradeable at some point again.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 28, 2016 15:24:10 GMT -5
Svelt. That's no Panda. That's a Panther.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 28, 2016 16:41:25 GMT -5
Pablo is huge for the Sox in 2017. I really do believe that Shaw is trade bait this off season and Moncada will need more time in AAA. It would be awesome if he slimmed down and reestablished his value to make him tradeable at some point again. Trade bait for what? I agree Moncada needs a half season or more in minors to work on his strikeouts. So for me to trade Shaw we have to get some real value and I'm not sure he has it. I don't want to hand Sandoval anything, make him work for a starting spot. Sandoval does look good, glad to see he's been working on getting in shape. Now he just needs to continue that for another 5 months.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 28, 2016 17:56:41 GMT -5
Pablo is huge for the Sox in 2017. I really do believe that Shaw is trade bait this off season and Moncada will need more time in AAA. It would be awesome if he slimmed down and reestablished his value to make him tradeable at some point again. Trade bait for what? I agree Moncada needs a half season or more in minors to work on his strikeouts. So for me to trade Shaw we have to get some real value and I'm not sure he has it. I don't want to hand Sandoval anything, make him work for a starting spot. Sandoval does look good, glad to see he's been working on getting in shape. Now he just needs to continue that for another 5 months. I don't know, catching depth, relief help, a right handed bat like Danny Valencia. I'm not going to speculate but Shaw has some value on the market because he's cheap. That has some value to small market teams like Oakland.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 28, 2016 20:00:34 GMT -5
Pablo is huge for the Sox in 2017. I really do believe that Shaw is trade bait this off season and Moncada will need more time in AAA. It would be awesome if he slimmed down and reestablished his value to make him tradeable at some point again. Trade bait for what? I agree Moncada needs a half season or more in minors to work on his strikeouts. So for me to trade Shaw we have to get some real value and I'm not sure he has it. I don't want to hand Sandoval anything, make him work for a starting spot. Sandoval does look good, glad to see he's been working on getting in shape. Now he just needs to continue that for another 5 months. Absolutely. I think trading Shaw before knowing Moncada is close enough to make the move and play passably, and/or Sandoval can approximate his past performance would be a bad idea. I'm hopeful on both of those counts, but trading depth at this point really sets them up for failure. Don't make holes where you don't have them.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 28, 2016 20:03:40 GMT -5
Trade bait for what? I agree Moncada needs a half season or more in minors to work on his strikeouts. So for me to trade Shaw we have to get some real value and I'm not sure he has it. I don't want to hand Sandoval anything, make him work for a starting spot. Sandoval does look good, glad to see he's been working on getting in shape. Now he just needs to continue that for another 5 months. I don't know, catching depth, relief help, a right handed bat like Danny Valencia. I'm not going to speculate but Shaw has some value on the market because he's cheap. That has some value to small market teams like Oakland. I do agree that Shaw has value as a good defensive 3b and passable hitter who has minimal salary and lots of control years. But at the moment, he's probably more valuable to the Sox than anyone else. It's not like he'll lose value over the winter/ST. If Panda looks good in ST, then maybe a move is warranted.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 28, 2016 22:48:01 GMT -5
I don't know, catching depth, relief help, a right handed bat like Danny Valencia. I'm not going to speculate but Shaw has some value on the market because he's cheap. That has some value to small market teams like Oakland. I do agree that Shaw has value as a good defensive 3b and passable hitter who has minimal salary and lots of control years. But at the moment, he's probably more valuable to the Sox than anyone else. It's not like he'll lose value over the winter/ST. If Panda looks good in ST, then maybe a move is warranted. I just see Shaw as a guy who couldn't keep his third base job even against Brock Holt by September, never mind Pablo if he's in shape. Shaw proved over a full season that Pablo is clearly the superior player if Pablo is serious about getting his job back. If not, there's always Holt or Marco Hernandez. The Sox have plenty of depth at third base. They may even have Moncada and/or Maricio Dubon as depth by mid 2017. Shaw is as good as trade bait imo.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 29, 2016 0:25:55 GMT -5
Shaw never has gotten a lot of respect on this board. I don't know how he is going to develop but his second half poor performance should not be taken as a predictor of his future. He has done better than expectations in his past and it may well do that in the future. I am not arguing that he will but that it is a bit too soon to throw in the towel on him.
He well could be the kind of player Billy Beane takes a flier on and before long he is a key player on that team. It has happened before a couple of times with players the Sox gave up on when they still were developing.
I don't believe there is any chance the Sox will trade him unless they sign, or trade for, a DH, 1B or 3B slugger to replace Ortiz and unless they are reasonably confident that Panda is going to perform well.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 29, 2016 1:12:09 GMT -5
I think that's what some people are missing. Shaw is a streaky hitter, we got the good at end of 2015 and first half of 2016 and the bad for the second half of 2016. I don't think the second half is the real Shaw, just like the first half wasn't the true Shaw. The fact is he was an above average starting 3B even with his bad second half. He shocked us all with his above average D at third which was a huge surprise.
He could also be in play at 1B next year. I love the depth this team has and don't want to get rid of it. By next year's trade deadline if things have worked out right for our young guys and we don't have injuries you might consider moving him then.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 29, 2016 1:51:42 GMT -5
Calling Shaw a streaky hitter is a huge stretch. Besides 3 months in the majors, he has been a bad hitter. His decline didn't even start in the second half, it started in June. The only thing Shaw has going for him is Fenway Park. It's really the only thing that kept his major league career alive, even with his above average defense. Ohh and Shaw is usless with his offsense at first base. Give me Sam Travis over Shaw at first if it comes to needing first base depth.
Shaw's hot streaks are very short lived and his cold streaks are very real and very long. Everyone brings up how he took Pablo's job away but no one brings up that he lost his job by mid September to utility man Brock Holt.
Shaw was a player who was looked at as organizational depth at one point. If you can get any sort of value for him, I'd jump on it.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 29, 2016 2:22:14 GMT -5
Calling Shaw a streaky hitter is a huge stretch. Besides 3 months in the majors, he has been a bad hitter. His decline didn't even start in the second half, it started in June. The only thing Shaw has going for him is Fenway Park. It's really the only thing that kept his major league career alive, even with his above average defense. Ohh and Shaw is usless with his offsense at first base. Give me Sam Travis over Shaw at first if it comes to needing first base depth. Shaw's hot streaks are very short lived and his cold streaks are very real and very long. Everyone brings up how he took Pablo's job away but no one brings up that he. Know lost his job by mid September to utility man Brock Holt. Shaw was a player who was looked at as organizational depth at one point. If you can get any sort of value for him, I'd jump on it Point is neither you nor I nor anyone else knows how he will hit in ST or April or August. I would bet he and his dad and friends are working on that right now. We do not know, and anything to the contrary is pure speculation or obsession. However, we do know he is a.very good defeatve 1B and 3B who might also cover some LF. We know, at the very least, he is a solid backup for Panda & Hanley at those positions; and maybe Moncada &Travis down the road. And if he is hitting well at the time, he is a valuable DH, PH when needed. That is a very valuable player under team control and, as the elected Mayor of ding dong city, an integral part of this young core, one who added 21 bombs to the pile. He is still learning and adjusting. It is fair and honest to cut him slack.
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Post by mgoetze on Oct 29, 2016 2:34:15 GMT -5
Pablo is huge for the Sox in 2017. No, please, not huge!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 29, 2016 3:24:56 GMT -5
Calling Shaw a streaky hitter is a huge stretch. Besides 3 months in the majors, he has been a bad hitter. His decline didn't even start in the second half, it started in June. The only thing Shaw has going for him is Fenway Park. It's really the only thing that kept his major league career alive, even with his above average defense. Ohh and Shaw is usless with his offsense at first base. Give me Sam Travis over Shaw at first if it comes to needing first base depth. Shaw's hot streaks are very short lived and his cold streaks are very real and very long. Everyone brings up how he took Pablo's job away but no one brings up that he lost his job by mid September to utility man Brock Holt. Shaw was a player who was looked at as organizational depth at one point. If you can get any sort of value for him, I'd jump on it. OPS in 2015 August .985, Sept/Oct .736. 2016 April/March .885, May .850, June .556, July .818, August .542, Sept/Oct .602. That nine full months he was good in 5 months, bad in 3 months and ok in one month. I'm counting Sept/Oct as one month as he had very few ABs In Oct. So how is he not streaky? How are his hot streaks short lived and his cold streaks very long? How can you say outside of 3 months he's been a bad hitter?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,968
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Post by jimoh on Oct 29, 2016 5:58:08 GMT -5
OPS in 2015 August .985, Sept/Oct .736. 2016 April/March .885, May .850, June .556, July .818, August .542, Sept/Oct .602. That nine full months he was good in 5 months, bad in 3 months and ok in one month. I'm counting Sept/Oct as one month as he had very few ABs In Oct. So how is he not streaky? How are his hot streaks short lived and his cold streaks very long? How can you say outside of 3 months he's been a bad hitter? Not just July: Jun 28 to Aug 7, 2016 .255 .307 .543 .849. Very valuable backup at 3 positions.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 29, 2016 11:36:46 GMT -5
Let's hope this is not true. I really do believe that Shaw is trade bait this off season and Moncada will need more time in AAA. It would be awesome if he slimmed down and reestablished his value to make him tradeable at some point again. Shaw is a valuable asset as he can play first and third fairly well. Now he's working out in the corner OF. Pablo's performance should have no bearing in a decision on Travis.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 29, 2016 15:52:33 GMT -5
I like Shaw- he's cheap and he can play 1st or 3rd. He's good for a cheap bench player. But he doesn't belong as a number 5 or 6 hitter.
Start Brock Holt at 3rd - Holt is a better player. In the 2nd half of the year Moncada should be ready. So in 2nd half of the year Holt can be relegated to being more of what he is - a super-sub and he won't wear down in the 2nd half like he did in 2014 and 2015.
Panda is a bad defensive player. His limited bat - can only hit righties doesn't make up for it. I wouldn't have him play 3rd (unless Holt and Shaw are awful.) or go against lefties. Either 1st or DH. Even 1st is questionable. But if he could hit vs righties, I don't care that his power numbers aren't that of a DH or 1b. He can hit and imo that is most important. He's a better hitter vs righties than Shaw so I think that's how I'd play the early season out.
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Post by buffs4444 on Oct 29, 2016 17:57:22 GMT -5
Go get'em Panda!
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Post by telson13 on Oct 30, 2016 0:52:24 GMT -5
Calling Shaw a streaky hitter is a huge stretch. Besides 3 months in the majors, he has been a bad hitter. His decline didn't even start in the second half, it started in June. The only thing Shaw has going for him is Fenway Park. It's really the only thing that kept his major league career alive, even with his above average defense. Ohh and Shaw is usless with his offsense at first base. Give me Sam Travis over Shaw at first if it comes to needing first base depth. Shaw's hot streaks are very short lived and his cold streaks are very real and very long. Everyone brings up how he took Pablo's job away but no one brings up that he lost his job by mid September to utility man Brock Holt. Shaw was a player who was looked at as organizational depth at one point. If you can get any sort of value for him, I'd jump on it. Shaw has been worth 3.0 fWAR in about 800 PA over his career. As Ted Williams said, and JBJ (and Xander Bogaerts, to a lesser extent) has been excellent evidence of, you really can't properly evaluate a hitter until he's had 1000 MLB AB (or PA, I suppose). So Shaw has been a marginally above-average player so far in his short, 1.5-year career, at roughly 2.5 fWAR per full season. Yes, he's very streaky. He's also an above-average defensive 3b. He costs nothing. He's entering his prime. He's still on the theoretical upswing of his plate approach development curve. Since HR power peaks at 27-28, his best power years are probably in the near future, too. He's shown an ability to exceed expectations, and odds. He's outperformed Sandoval two years in a row, one of which was due to a season-ending Sandoval shoulder injury--the type of injury that affects hitting, and power in particular. It literally makes no sense whatsoever to trade Shaw right now, unless they get a "can't refuse" offer. They can wait until the 3b depth situation is more stable, and it costs them nothing. They have no critical need, and their only significant needs are (and this is arguable) DH/CIF (and he fits one need as a wholly serviceable MLB starter), and RP. Both of those can be addressed via FA. Absolutely, if a good deal comes around, I hope they take it. But their rotation is set, their OF is set, C is in flux but with multiple options, and MIF is set. They're a roughly 95-win team as constituted. There's no point in pre-emptively creating holes, unless the "want" they fill is as (reliably) much better than the option there as the loss of Shaw figures to be. I don't think counting on Sandoval or Moncada for anything is wise. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than (as with the rotation 4-5 through July this past year) horribly disappointed. That just puts them in a *need* situation where they give up another Espinoza to fill a hole they created.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 30, 2016 1:02:02 GMT -5
I like Shaw- he's cheap and he can play 1st or 3rd. He's good for a cheap bench player. But he doesn't belong as a number 5 or 6 hitter. Start Brock Holt at 3rd - Holt is a better player. In the 2nd half of the year Moncada should be ready. So in 2nd half of the year Holt can be relegated to being more of what he is - a super-sub and he won't wear down in the 2nd half like he did in 2014 and 2015. Panda is a bad defensive player. His limited bat - can only hit righties doesn't make up for it. I wouldn't have him play 3rd (unless Holt and Shaw are awful.) or go against lefties. Either 1st or DH. Even 1st is questionable. But if he could hit vs righties, I don't care that his power numbers aren't that of a DH or 1b. He can hit and imo that is most important. He's a better hitter vs righties than Shaw so I think that's how I'd play the early season out. Please provide some empirical evidence that Brock Holt is a "better player." He's certainly not a better hitter based on OPS. And I'd like some evidence that he's a better defensive 3b than Shaw. Beyond that, using Holt as a starter 1) clearly wears him down and kills his performance, and 2) means that they lose his outstanding flexibility between positions as a superutility, which is where his true value arises from. I think this approach would be an unmitigated disaster.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 30, 2016 13:00:17 GMT -5
Calling Shaw a streaky hitter is a huge stretch. Besides 3 months in the majors, he has been a bad hitter. His decline didn't even start in the second half, it started in June. The only thing Shaw has going for him is Fenway Park. It's really the only thing that kept his major league career alive, even with his above average defense. Ohh and Shaw is usless with his offsense at first base. Give me Sam Travis over Shaw at first if it comes to needing first base depth. Shaw's hot streaks are very short lived and his cold streaks are very real and very long. Everyone brings up how he took Pablo's job away but no one brings up that he lost his job by mid September to utility man Brock Holt. Shaw was a player who was looked at as organizational depth at one point. If you can get any sort of value for him, I'd jump on it. Shaw has been worth 3.0 fWAR in about 800 PA over his career. As Ted Williams said, and JBJ (and Xander Bogaerts, to a lesser extent) has been excellent evidence of, you really can't properly evaluate a hitter until he's had 1000 MLB AB (or PA, I suppose). So Shaw has been a marginally above-average player so far in his short, 1.5-year career, at roughly 2.5 fWAR per full season. Yes, he's very streaky. He's also an above-average defensive 3b. He costs nothing. He's entering his prime. He's still on the theoretical upswing of his plate approach development curve. Since HR power peaks at 27-28, his best power years are probably in the near future, too. He's shown an ability to exceed expectations, and odds. He's outperformed Sandoval two years in a row, one of which was due to a season-ending Sandoval shoulder injury--the type of injury that affects hitting, and power in particular. It literally makes no sense whatsoever to trade Shaw right now, unless they get a "can't refuse" offer. They can wait until the 3b depth situation is more stable, and it costs them nothing. They have no critical need, and their only significant needs are (and this is arguable) DH/CIF (and he fits one need as a wholly serviceable MLB starter), and RP. Both of those can be addressed via FA. Absolutely, if a good deal comes around, I hope they take it. But their rotation is set, their OF is set, C is in flux but with multiple options, and MIF is set. They're a roughly 95-win team as constituted. There's no point in pre-emptively creating holes, unless the "want" they fill is as (reliably) much better than the option there as the loss of Shaw figures to be. I don't think counting on Sandoval or Moncada for anything is wise. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than (as with the rotation 4-5 through July this past year) horribly disappointed. That just puts them in a *need* situation where they give up another Espinoza to fill a hole they created. Travis Shaw is going to have a prime? I'm not so sure about this at all. Hanley Ramirez had the same exact shoulder operation and continued to hit well throughout his career. I expect this to continue with Pablo. I know your approach is to keep everything in house and conserve. Dave Dombrowski doesn't fit this style. I think you're going to be disappointed with the way he thinks. He sees needs and fills them. There's a chance he keeps Shaw if they don't sign Edwin Encarnacion, but if they do, I'm expecting a trade.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 30, 2016 13:33:04 GMT -5
I like Shaw- he's cheap and he can play 1st or 3rd. He's good for a cheap bench player. But he doesn't belong as a number 5 or 6 hitter. Start Brock Holt at 3rd - Holt is a better player. In the 2nd half of the year Moncada should be ready. So in 2nd half of the year Holt can be relegated to being more of what he is - a super-sub and he won't wear down in the 2nd half like he did in 2014 and 2015. Panda is a bad defensive player. His limited bat - can only hit righties doesn't make up for it. I wouldn't have him play 3rd (unless Holt and Shaw are awful.) or go against lefties. Either 1st or DH. Even 1st is questionable. But if he could hit vs righties, I don't care that his power numbers aren't that of a DH or 1b. He can hit and imo that is most important. He's a better hitter vs righties than Shaw so I think that's how I'd play the early season out. Please provide some empirical evidence that Brock Holt is a "better player." He's certainly not a better hitter based on OPS. And I'd like some evidence that he's a better defensive 3b than Shaw. Beyond that, using Holt as a starter 1) clearly wears him down and kills his performance, and 2) means that they lose his outstanding flexibility between positions as a superutility, which is where his true value arises from. I think this approach would be an unmitigated disaster. Look at when they both played a complete season. Brock Holt's 2015 season vs Shaw's 2016. Holt had a higher ba, and obp, while Shaw has the higher slugging and they had near equal OPS. Holt imo has a better chance to hit left-handed pitching in that he hit left-handers pretty well for a full season in 2015 (and in 2014) while Shaw hit left handers pretty well in 2015 it was a shortened season. Both got wipted out vs lefties this year- but as far as a hitter and they have the same OPS- the guy that is more complete is better. If you want to look at 2016 season only - I'm nto sure that is fair - in that Holt had a concussion which crushed him for lots of at bats during his concussion and I remember him saying when he first came back it hurt him afterwards.
I don't believe 2015 season of Shaw is relevant. With just 248pa's, the opposing pitchers hadn't found his weaknesses. While Holt had 2 years of being consistent in 2014 and 2015 with pa's doubling Shaw of 492 and 509 respectively.
As far as 3b, I don't have that. Just an opinion. Holt hasn't been given one position to start. Therefore he is working on all positions. If he was allowed to work primarily at one position naturally I believe he would improve at it. As far as Shaw defensively - I don't believe he charges well, I don't believe his arm is better than Holt. I believe Holt can have better range if he was allowed to work at it. So in summary I'll take the more consistent hitting of Holt and the above mentioned fielding.
As far as 1-- "Clearly wearing him down:" Holt gets worn down when he is playing every day over the course of a full season. In July I'm expecting Moncada to become available. And there are days before July that Shaw can sub for Holt. PLUS what I have proposed is the Red Sox to go after Pearce. Pearce hits lefties so Holt won't be playing everyday even before the Moncada arrival. Therefore he can sub for some players on an occasional day as well. In 2014 and 2015 he showed he was pretty good through July 4th of both 2014 and 2015 season when he was playing nearly every day. Now if we get Pearce and Holt doesn't bat vs lefties, I don't believe he'd wear down before Moncada arrives.
1A-- I don't want Holt or Shaw being much of a sub in the outfield to start the season. I thought Young was the better player last year, so super-sub Holt is already behind the 8-ball to start as far as an outfield sub. We don't need Holt there much.
2-- Holt offers outstanding flexibility but if he is better than another player - which imo he is better than Shaw- then I want the guy that is better getting more at bats everyday. I'm trying to play my best and trying to win everyday. If Holt is better than Shaw, then he should be used more than Shaw at every opportunity because he gives us the best opportunity to win. As mentioned in number 1 - he can still be a sub in the 1st half of the season before the Moncada arrival while being a primary starter while he doesn't paly much vs lefties if we get that right-handed bat which I feel we should get.
I think it's important the Sox go after a righty bat that hit lefties that can play 1st and 3rd. This righty bat will limit Moncada's at bats vs lefties too but in terms of being worn down, the righty bat takes that issue away barring injury. I'd be open to giving sporadic at bats to Holt or Shaw or Panda and definitely Moncada vs lefties. As well as if Pearce is hitting the cover off the ball vs lefties then give him sporadic bats vs righties. Then see how they do. Maybe Shaw is more like 2015? We did that with Young. Young reduces the chance of Holt wearing down. The same with getting Pearce.
IMO to rely on Shaw though - or Panda and have them play full time and have them go against lefties without them showing us they've improved is the potential disaster.
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