Post by telson13 on Oct 30, 2016 19:27:48 GMT -5
Beyond that, using Holt as a starter 1) clearly wears him down and kills his performance, and 2) means that they lose his outstanding flexibility between positions as a superutility, which is where his true value arises from.
I think this approach would be an unmitigated disaster.
Look at when they both played a complete season. Brock Holt's 2015 season vs Shaw's 2016. Holt had a higher ba, and obp, while Shaw has the higher slugging and they had near equal OPS. Holt imo has a better chance to hit left-handed pitching in that he hit left-handers pretty well for a full season in 2015 (and in 2014) while Shaw hit left handers pretty well in 2015 it was a shortened season. Both got wipted out vs lefties this year- but as far as a hitter and they have the same OPS- the guy that is more complete is better. If you want to look at 2016 season only - I'm nto sure that is fair - in that Holt had a concussion which crushed him for lots of at bats during his concussion and I remember him saying when he first came back it hurt him afterwards.
I don't believe 2015 season of Shaw is relevant. With just 248pa's, the opposing pitchers hadn't found his weaknesses. While Holt had 2 years of being consistent in 2014 and 2015 with pa's doubling Shaw of 492 and 509 respectively.
As far as 3b, I don't have that. Just an opinion. Holt hasn't been given one position to start. Therefore he is working on all positions. If he was allowed to work primarily at one position naturally I believe he would improve at it. As far as Shaw defensively - I don't believe he charges well, I don't believe his arm is better than Holt. I believe Holt can have better range if he was allowed to work at it. So in summary I'll take the more consistent hitting of Holt and the above mentioned fielding.
As far as
1-- "Clearly wearing him down:" Holt gets worn down when he is playing every day over the course of a full season. In July I'm expecting Moncada to become available. And there are days before July that Shaw can sub for Holt. PLUS what I have proposed is the Red Sox to go after Pearce. Pearce hits lefties so Holt won't be playing everyday even before the Moncada arrival. Therefore he can sub for some players on an occasional day as well. In 2014 and 2015 he showed he was pretty good through July 4th of both 2014 and 2015 season when he was playing nearly every day. Now if we get Pearce and Holt doesn't bat vs lefties, I don't believe he'd wear down before Moncada arrives.
1A-- I don't want Holt or Shaw being much of a sub in the outfield to start the season. I thought Young was the better player last year, so super-sub Holt is already behind the 8-ball to start as far as an outfield sub. We don't need Holt there much.
2-- Holt offers outstanding flexibility but if he is better than another player - which imo he is better than Shaw- then I want the guy that is better getting more at bats everyday. I'm trying to play my best and trying to win everyday. If Holt is better than Shaw, then he should be used more than Shaw at every opportunity because he gives us the best opportunity to win. As mentioned in number 1 - he can still be a sub in the 1st half of the season before the Moncada arrival while being a primary starter while he doesn't paly much vs lefties if we get that right-handed bat which I feel we should get.
I think it's important the Sox go after a righty bat that hit lefties that can play 1st and 3rd. This righty bat will limit Moncada's at bats vs lefties too but in terms of being worn down, the righty bat takes that issue away barring injury. I'd be open to giving sporadic at bats to Holt or Shaw or Panda and definitely Moncada vs lefties. As well as if Pearce is hitting the cover off the ball vs lefties then give him sporadic bats vs righties. Then see how they do. Maybe Shaw is more like 2015? We did that with Young. Young reduces the chance of Holt wearing down. The same with getting Pearce.
IMO to rely on Shaw though - or Panda and have them play full time and have them go against lefties without them showing us they've improved is the potential disaster.
Travis Shaw's career OPS is 50 points higher. That's a huge difference. Now, OBP is more important for scoring, but Shaw still leads wRC+, 97 to 92. And Shaw is an above-average 3b: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11982&position=1B/3B
Holt almost certainly isn't better defensively, and is probably worse, perhaps significantly so. Shaw has been worth 3.0 fWAR to Holt's 4.2, but in half as many PA.
Holt has worn down every time he's started regularly. What do you do if Moncada isn't ready?
Holt isn't better, he's probably not even as good, and he may be actually slightly to moderately worse. Plus you're giving up depth and flexibility.
I say, keep both Shaw and Sandoval until somebody claims the position, or Moncada's ready, barring a great offer for Shaw. They have nothing to lose by doing so.