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Post by deepjohn on Dec 6, 2016 4:43:21 GMT -5
I think that's fundamentally correct in general. Position player free agent signings for aging players have become hard to justify, especially in the later years. But this was not a free agent signing, and the question is, what would the free agent market have been now? If it would have been more, given the increase in projected revenues, and the increase in salary caps, than there could actually be excess value in this particular case. Also, as you suggest, Miggy may look like the kind of player who holds his value well as he ages, not dependent on speed or traits that decline with age. And (as you suggest) the Red Sox may have some inside knowledge about keeping a player like Miggy (i.e., Papi) healthy as he ages. It's exponentially worse than a FA signing. It's doubtful that, at his age, Cabrera would get that deal on the FA market. And to top it off, they get the pleasure of financially hamstringing the team by obliterating its youth. In three years, when Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, and ERod (or whoever is left) is looking for their $15-30M per year, the Sox will already be stuck with a bloated contract for Miggy (whose defense, already atrocious, will almost certainly get worse, if that's even possible), and no minor league system to speak of...meaning no low-cost starters. This is an early-2000s Yankees move. It's horrible. I'd have no problem taking on Cabrera's contract, but not if it costs much of anything in return. He's going to be 34 next spring. He's not the healthiest fellow. He might put up a couple more 4 to 5-WAR seasons, but beyond 37, when he's a DH only, he'll be lucky to crack 3.5. People talk about FA WAR equivalents, but at $8M per, you'd have to drop $400M for a Championship-caliber team. You've gotta save $200M somewhere, and this trade proposal makes that essentially impossible. Fair points. Not nitpicking. Fangraphs had this, I'm guessing you saw it: What that author left out is that RHH power is rare, and the 1B/DH position is more expensive than most others. But even leaving that out, that author thinks the contract has excess value over the next four to five years, and also breaks even over six years. (It's only the last year he's worried about, in 2023, because the 40M that year, with the 8M buyout, and the assumption that Miggy won't produce at age 40, gives a negative 33M for that year alone). But the Red Sox need all that excess value over the next four to five years, as their young offense matures, and especially next year, when their pitching looks to be very strong (as I think you've agreed elsewhere). In hindsight, they really needed Miggy's elite RHH power this last postseason when a lot of the young bats (and Papi) went cold. And will Betts hit 30 HRs again, without Papi in the lineup? How much better does Miggy make everybody else, with his presence? Maybe ownership figures that the one blow out year in 2023 over the salary cap won't really hamstring anything, even assuming Miggy can't produce at age 40.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 6, 2016 8:25:27 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 14h14 hours ago Farrell on MLB Network just said the team is not having a full time DH next year, it will be a rotation of players in and out of the spot.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 6, 2016 8:34:01 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 14h14 hours ago Farrell on MLB Network just said the team is not having a full time DH next year, it will be a rotation of players in and out of the spot. Which in essence means that 600 plate appearances by Big Papi will be replaced by about 450 plate appearances of Sandoval and the others by Chris Young. The rotating will be defensive with Sandoval and Shaw splitting 3b, Ramirez and Shaw splitting 1b, and Sandoval and Ramirez splitting DH ABs. And occasionally somebody else will get a day off from the field. But the playing time is basically going from Papi to Panda, which is a very steep drop offensively, even if Panda is healthy and relatively fit.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 6, 2016 10:48:21 GMT -5
From MLB Trade Rumors:
Despite reported interest in Holliday and now-Astro Carlos Beltran, Boston didn’t make offers to either, Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “I figured we would wait to see what takes place later on, who’s out there. Our priority is to try to get a guy that can pitch the eighth inning for us,” said Dombrowski, who’s working with a limited amount of spending room because of a desire to stay under the $195MM luxury-tax threshold. “There’s a little bit more of a drive to [stay under]. But I can’t tell you where we we’re going to end up,” he stated. “There are penalties attached that I would rather not be in a position that we have to incur.” That would seem to rule out any possibility of Encarnacion to Boston, which already looked unlikely entering Monday. As for the bullpen, Dombrowski is unsure whether he’ll acquire a setup man via trade or free agency, but he hasn’t ruled out re-signing either Brad Ziegler or Koji Uehara.
Just surprised there was no offer for Beltran whom they reportedly really wanted. I bit disappointing they didn't make an offer at Beltran's eventual price tag. The rest of this statement is playing out with the Thornburg trade.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2016 11:15:14 GMT -5
The attempting to stay under the luxury tax threshold bit is interesting. If true (and it isn't necessarily true-- might just be posturing), they have less than $10M in wiggle room to work with, which means even the likes of Napoli, Moss, etc. might be out of their price range.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 6, 2016 11:27:50 GMT -5
The attempting to stay under the luxury tax threshold bit is interesting. If true (and it isn't necessarily true-- might just be posturing), they have less than $10M in wiggle room to work with, which means even the likes of Napoli, Moss, etc. might be out of their price range. Based on his quote I think he sees an excess of players at the corner OF/1b/DH positions and expects someone will be left at the end desperate for a job. If he waits then he can get that player and still remain under the luxury tax.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 6, 2016 11:41:41 GMT -5
Ken_Rosenthal Source confirms: #RedSox strongly in mix for Mitch Moreland.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 6, 2016 11:48:01 GMT -5
Ken_Rosenthal Source confirms: #RedSox strongly in mix for Mitch Moreland. Eh. I would rather them roll with what they have and just season Moncada for half a season in AAA. Moreland is a lefty, but he will just take up room. Give the job to multiple players and rotate days off. Devers and Moncada are the future at 1st and 3rd unless of course Anibal Sanchez rebounds somewhat. Then we all know what Dombrowski will do. Trade both for him of course.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 6, 2016 17:40:10 GMT -5
I'm not dying to see Mitch Moreland bring his 2016 87 OPS-plus and .7 WAR to town.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2016 17:45:21 GMT -5
The only upside for Moreland is that he'd be cheap and looks like he'd love the Green Monster. They must have a dire want to be under the luxury tax threshold. Definitely have to trade a pitcher now.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 6, 2016 18:55:58 GMT -5
The only upside for Moreland is that he'd be cheap and looks like he'd love the Green Monster. They must have a dire want to be under the luxury tax threshold. Definitely have to trade a pitcher now. Well we can't afford an established all-star offensively at every position. Moreland is a very top defensive 1B man and that will count for something. Pitching and defense is what we ordered up today. Isn't that the time honored formula?? If Moreland hits .250 (likely with a half season at Fenway) with 20+ hrs., that is acceptable stuff given his defense. Agreed about your opinion of trading a pitcher. I think Clay is the next shoe to drop in an effort to lower payroll hopefully for a couple of good prospects. Pablo is at third for at least a couple of seasons while Devers gestates. One thing that you have to admit, DD identifies and gets. No moss...rather than no mas.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 6, 2016 21:08:22 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 14h14 hours ago Farrell on MLB Network just said the team is not having a full time DH next year, it will be a rotation of players in and out of the spot. Which in essence means that 600 plate appearances by Big Papi will be replaced by about 450 plate appearances of Sandoval and the others by Chris Young. The rotating will be defensive with Sandoval and Shaw splitting 3b, Ramirez and Shaw splitting 1b, and Sandoval and Ramirez splitting DH ABs. And occasionally somebody else will get a day off from the field. But the playing time is basically going from Papi to Panda, which is a very steep drop offensively, even if Panda is healthy and relatively fit. With Gold glove winning Moreland in the fold now and manning first, Hanley takes over the majority of AB at DH. Sandoval gets the keys to the car at third. I wonder if Hanley could play third on an emergency basis as I'd say our weak spot is at the corner and not only because it's the giant unknown in Sandoval but because of the depth with Holt now backing him up. Moncada most of us here believed was about a half year away but Devers is likely 2+ year out. Young will likely get the next most AB at DH. Looking at where Ortiz AB is not how you should look at it but, whose IP is Sale replacing.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 6, 2016 22:31:46 GMT -5
Which in essence means that 600 plate appearances by Big Papi will be replaced by about 450 plate appearances of Sandoval and the others by Chris Young. The rotating will be defensive with Sandoval and Shaw splitting 3b, Ramirez and Shaw splitting 1b, and Sandoval and Ramirez splitting DH ABs. And occasionally somebody else will get a day off from the field. But the playing time is basically going from Papi to Panda, which is a very steep drop offensively, even if Panda is healthy and relatively fit. With Gold glove winning Moreland in the fold now and manning first, Hanley takes over the majority of AB at DH. Sandoval gets the keys to the car at third. I wonder if Hanley could play third on an emergency basis as I'd say our weak spot is at the corner and not only because it's the giant unknown in Sandoval but because of the depth with Holt now backing him up. Moncada most of us here believed was about a half year away but Devers is likely 2+ year out. Young will likely get the next most AB at DH. Looking at where Ortiz AB is not how you should look at it but, whose IP is Sale replacing. When I made my post Chris Sale was a member of the White Sox, so that would not have been a consideration. He will probably replace Pomeranz' innings (I'd hope), so yes, there's a considerable upgrade there. Of course there's a considerable downgrade to the Red Sox' long-term future today, but that's a different post. That doesn't change the fact that there's a considerable downgrade offensively from Ortiz to Mitch Moreland in the lineup. Basically Sandoval is now replacing Shaw in the lineup and he has a low bar to clear to be better, but then again Shaw had a low bar to clear to be better than Sandoval was. And we already know that Sandoval defensively isn't as good as Shaw. We do know that will be mitigated by Hanley sliding over to the DH spot and 1b getting considerably better defense with Moreland. So pitching is better (Thornburg was a good pickup), but the lineup should be slightly better at 3b, significantly better in LF, and from a lineup standpoint the drop to Moreland from Ortiz is huge, but that's because the Red Sox didn't want to go over the tax limit.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Dec 6, 2016 23:15:37 GMT -5
I think some are underestimating the upgrade on defense from Ramirez to Moreland. Hanley was a butcher out there and we picked up a gold glover. Not to mention Moreland went from .315 BABIP in 2014, .317 in 2015 to .266 in 2016. His hard contact was actually up in 2016 too by half a percent. All this suggests he's due for a bounce-back year. He isn't a world beater, but there's a lot of reasons to like this deal compared to the other options.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2016 0:00:23 GMT -5
Mariners are talking to Trumbo and need starting pitching. Vogelbach+ might be a package that could really work for us. Maybe they'd flip Valencia, and I know Vogelbach isn't good in the field, but he has long term control and has a nice offensive ceiling.
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