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Red Sox trade Clay Buchholz to Phillies for 2B Josh Tobias
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Post by telson13 on Dec 20, 2016 21:16:00 GMT -5
I'm disappointed with the trade return as I think Tobias might have a decent hit tool, but little else and he's pretty fringy. The real objective is obvious and Dombrowski, as usual, has been up front and honest about it. He has a mandate from management to get under the luxury tax limit. That's the biggest reason why he's stayed away from Edwin Encarnacion and a pretty big reason why he's pretty pleased with himself - getting Chris Sale, an elite starter, without going over the luxury tax limit. The fact of the matter is that getting rid of Buchholz's salary was worth more to the Red Sox at this point than what they actually got in return. It was obvious they weren't going to get a Luis Castillo type prospect for Buchholz as the Marlins would have been stupid to surrender him for Buchholz. I think Dombrowski looked around, determined that the market wasn't that great for him. If it had been, I think he would have dealt him already. At this point the real prize is to be a good deal under the luxury tax limit so they can make a deal if they need to at the deadline, whether they need bullpen help or if they need a better bat than Mitch Moreland - for example, perhaps Bautista signs elsewhere for a year and the Red Sox acquire him at the deadline to DH and would have the funds available without going over the limit. Staying away from going over the limit is crucial. If Otani is available after the offseason the Red Sox need to be in position to bid a huge amount for him without worrying about huge penalties, and of course, the season afterwards the free agent market is flush with talent, and of course the Sox have their own talent to tie up, starting (and maybe ending) with Betts. The return on Buchholz is less important than the other benefits they get by going under the limit, so I can't complain too much. And yeah, I have no doubt that Buchholz will pitch very well for the Phillies, become prime trade bait at the deadline, net the Phillies a really good prospect, much better than Tobias, and then Buchholz will disappoint whatever team picks him up. Then he'll be a free agent and get himself a good contract elsewhere and be the same maddening pitcher he's always been. Buchholz was a good pitcher for the Sox, but not what I had hoped he'd be. He was kind of a disappointment, but certainly not a failure. I'll always fondly remember the no-hitter and how good he was in 2010 and how great he was when he took the mound in 2013. I'll remember how many times I thought he needed to be booted back to Pawtucket, and I'll always be annoyed that he came up so small when he was needed in 2016. If he had held up his end of the bargain the Red Sox would still have Anderson Espinoza or Michael Kopech (Pomeranz would not have been needed and only one of those pitchers would have went for Sale) in the organization. So Carl Pavano (along with Tony Armas gotten for Mike Stanley) begot Pedro Martinez which begot Clay Buchholz (as a compensation pick) which now stands as Josh Tobias. Yeah, .254 in high A at 23 with poor defense and no speed is nothing to get excited about. "Good bat" is a relative term. I don't see anyone here talking about their plans for Jantzen Witte in the team's future trade plans.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 20, 2016 23:37:15 GMT -5
I'm disappointed with the trade return as I think Tobias might have a decent hit tool, but little else and he's pretty fringy. The real objective is obvious and Dombrowski, as usual, has been up front and honest about it. He has a mandate from management to get under the luxury tax limit. That's the biggest reason why he's stayed away from Edwin Encarnacion and a pretty big reason why he's pretty pleased with himself - getting Chris Sale, an elite starter, without going over the luxury tax limit. The fact of the matter is that getting rid of Buchholz's salary was worth more to the Red Sox at this point than what they actually got in return. It was obvious they weren't going to get a Luis Castillo type prospect for Buchholz as the Marlins would have been stupid to surrender him for Buchholz. I think Dombrowski looked around, determined that the market wasn't that great for him. If it had been, I think he would have dealt him already. At this point the real prize is to be a good deal under the luxury tax limit so they can make a deal if they need to at the deadline, whether they need bullpen help or if they need a better bat than Mitch Moreland - for example, perhaps Bautista signs elsewhere for a year and the Red Sox acquire him at the deadline to DH and would have the funds available without going over the limit. Staying away from going over the limit is crucial. If Otani is available after the offseason the Red Sox need to be in position to bid a huge amount for him without worrying about huge penalties, and of course, the season afterwards the free agent market is flush with talent, and of course the Sox have their own talent to tie up, starting (and maybe ending) with Betts. The return on Buchholz is less important than the other benefits they get by going under the limit, so I can't complain too much. And yeah, I have no doubt that Buchholz will pitch very well for the Phillies, become prime trade bait at the deadline, net the Phillies a really good prospect, much better than Tobias, and then Buchholz will disappoint whatever team picks him up. Then he'll be a free agent and get himself a good contract elsewhere and be the same maddening pitcher he's always been. Buchholz was a good pitcher for the Sox, but not what I had hoped he'd be. He was kind of a disappointment, but certainly not a failure. I'll always fondly remember the no-hitter and how good he was in 2010 and how great he was when he took the mound in 2013. I'll remember how many times I thought he needed to be booted back to Pawtucket, and I'll always be annoyed that he came up so small when he was needed in 2016. If he had held up his end of the bargain the Red Sox would still have Anderson Espinoza or Michael Kopech (Pomeranz would not have been needed and only one of those pitchers would have went for Sale) in the organization. So Carl Pavano (along with Tony Armas gotten for Mike Stanley) begot Pedro Martinez which begot Clay Buchholz (as a compensation pick) which now stands as Josh Tobias. Yeah, .254 in high A at 23 with poor defense and no speed is nothing to get excited about. "Good bat" is a relative term. I don't see anyone here talking about their plans for Jantzen Witte in the team's future trade plans. I was being kind of generous. I think he has a shot (as in small shot but not non-zero) at getting some ABs in the majors, but that's what it is - a shot. He's better than "organizational filler", but the word "fringy" comes to mind. I think he'll hit in high A ball and find himself in AA at some point this season. At age 24 you can't get too excited about it. He can play other positions, but probably not too well. So he might be able to hit for a reasonable average, but do little else. Huge comedown from the hopes of getting somebody like Luis Castillo. Had no problem understanding why Dombrowski would shoot for the moon and had no trouble understanding why the Marlins would say no friggin' way. But I hoped it would at least be a AAAA arm that could replace Elias on the PawSox/Red Sox shuttle if need be, somebody with some practical use if they weren't going to get a prospect that had a chance to be more than marginal. The other hope was that it would be some raw lottery ticket type. I think at the end of the day it didn't matter much - it was all about the benefits of being under the luxury tax limit, which does make sense.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 20, 2016 23:44:07 GMT -5
If (and I know it’s Buchholz so a rather big if) Clay stays healthy for a half season for the Phillies, I bet they turn around and trade him for a hell of lot more than a non prospect like Tobias. I'm willing to bet the above quote happens. It's a really important point when it comes to evaluating the Sale trade. Before the Sale trade, when Clay was the 6th starter projected to make 15 - 20 starts because of likely injuries, there was a scenario where he's a sought-after commodity in July, and we can afford to move him because Henry Owens and/or Brian Johnson (and maybe even an Elias who cleared waivers) are clearly good enough to be the 6th starter on your depth chart. And of course in that scenario, where your 6th starter is in Pawtucket rather than your bullpen, you're opening up a bullpen spot for Carson Smith or an acquisition. If in fact Buchholz gets traded for a nice package, and it's clear that we would have been in a position to deal him ourselves, you have to add whatever talent Philly gets to Moncada, Kopech, and the rest (not, in this case, the Professor and Mary Ann*). I sure hope we win the division by a game or two and/or Sale is so spectacular in the post-season enroute to a WS win that it's clear that we couldn't have it done it with just Price, Porcello, and your choice of 2 of Pomeranz, E-Rod, and Wright as the post-season rotation. (Just saying that makes me want to bash my head against a wall.) Otherwise, what was the point of that trade? *Extremely obscure in-joke that depends upon knowing the history of that theme song!
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 21, 2016 1:31:01 GMT -5
I'm glad that Buchholz is gone. He was a heartbreaker. He would be terrific for a short period of time and then not so much. I think many here overvalued him. It makes perfect sense to get rid of his salary. However, considering what the Sox got for him, I am not sure why they picked up his option.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 21, 2016 1:33:03 GMT -5
No doubt, I'd have liked a better return, but have to accept the $13.5M, combined with the up and down performance made this a deal only teams like Philly, (too low a payroll and no desire for any commitments beyond 2017) could make.
Now they likely go to camp with what they have. Someone could offer an overwhelming package for any of their pieces, but I doubt it. In camp they'll assess 7th, 8th, and 9th bullpen pieces; 7th and 8th starters, the Catchers, and likely most important, Pablo Sandoval. If all looks good, a minor deal or two are likely, but nothing earth shattering unless they deal a Catcher, unlikely imo.
I'm good; thought maybe better could have been had; but will never know enough details to insist it should have been that way. They are deep, young and talented and ready to compete. I could ask for no more.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 21, 2016 7:22:14 GMT -5
I am not sure what all the confusion is with the Buchholz trade. He was making a substantial salary. If he were a free agent and signed a one year 13.5 dollar contract would that have seemed to be a good deal, to anyone?
Btw, when it gets closer to spring training teams generally are not handing out 13.5 million dollar deals. Do you remember how much Folwer signed for last year?
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 21, 2016 8:32:34 GMT -5
Clay Buchholz is totally winning the Cy Young Award this year.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 21, 2016 9:14:01 GMT -5
Clay Buchholz is totally winning the Cy Young Award this year. Can pitchers win the CY going from the NL to the AL at the trade deadline? I can honestly see him doing well in the NL east (not exactly an offensive juggernaut division + facing pitchers), then get traded to the NYY for one of their many prospects & helping them get a WC. Obviously this is not going to happen, would just be funny if it did.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 21, 2016 9:19:37 GMT -5
I'm glad that Buchholz is gone. He was a heartbreaker. He would be terrific for a short period of time and then not so much. I think many here overvalued him. It makes perfect sense to get rid of his salary. However, considering what the Sox got for him, I am not sure why they picked up his option.First of all, why does it matter? They got something for him and didn't pay a dime. Second, they picked it up because they probably weren't counting on trading for Sale and they also didn't know how much the luxury tax threshold was going to be. If the LTT went up to $210 million, they could have kept him if they wanted. It's not that puzzling and I've seen it mentioned so many times in this thread.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 21, 2016 9:22:10 GMT -5
And maybe Craig and Castillo also? The White Sox have no use for Buchholz. They're rebuilding. Did you forget that the rebuilding Phillies just traded for him? It's all about hoping he pitches well and they can flip him for prospects at deadline. Apparently, he had almost no value, so what is the point? The Phillies have more money to spend than the White Sox, I'd imagine.
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Post by costpet on Dec 21, 2016 9:57:45 GMT -5
So now we know that a bag of balls actually has a name.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 21, 2016 10:09:37 GMT -5
I guess my disappointment with this trade comes from the fact that I buy the late season adjustments and the resulting improved performance. He produced a 3.22 second half ERA with a reduced walk rate between his 8 starts and bull pen work. Perhaps it's a fool me twice (thrice/four times, etc. . ) scenario but I had the expectation of a decent year from Buchholz (and therefore a higher trade value). I'm not going to change my opinion on that just because he's no longer a Red Sox. I hope he throws well and I think Philadelphia made a smart move with their payroll flexibility. I mean 13.5 million is not really that much for a starter these days. As a free agent I could have seen Clay getting 2 and 20. l also wouldn't be surprised if he gets a little Rich Hill-like love next offseason.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 21, 2016 10:13:13 GMT -5
I'm glad that Buchholz is gone. He was a heartbreaker. He would be terrific for a short period of time and then not so much. I think many here overvalued him. It makes perfect sense to get rid of his salary. However, considering what the Sox got for him, I am not sure why they picked up his option.First of all, why does it matter? They got something for him and didn't pay a dime. Second, they picked it up because they probably weren't counting on trading for Sale and they also didn't know how much the luxury tax threshold was going to be. If the LTT went up to $210 million, they could have kept him if they wanted. It's not that puzzling and I've seen it mentioned so many times in this thread. Good points.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 21, 2016 10:15:18 GMT -5
Clay Buchholz is totally winning the Cy Young Award this year. Can pitchers win the CY going from the NL to the AL at the trade deadline? I can honestly see him doing well in the NL east (not exactly an offensive juggernaut division + facing pitchers), then get traded to the NYY for one of their many prospects & helping them get a WC. Obviously this is not going to happen, would just be funny if it did. They can but he's totally getting traded to the Dodgers or Giants. Or sticking with the possibly sneaky-good Phillies. Nola, Hellickson, Velasquez, Eickhoff, and Buchholz, plus some depth in the upper minors, is a pretty neat little rotation.
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Post by tjb21 on Dec 21, 2016 10:29:37 GMT -5
Bummer. I liked Clay.
Seems like DD overestimated his trade value (I did too) -- this return is disappointing.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2016 11:13:41 GMT -5
I'm disappointed with the trade return as I think Tobias might have a decent hit tool, but little else and he's pretty fringy. The real objective is obvious and Dombrowski, as usual, has been up front and honest about it. He has a mandate from management to get under the luxury tax limit. That's the biggest reason why he's stayed away from Edwin Encarnacion and a pretty big reason why he's pretty pleased with himself - getting Chris Sale, an elite starter, without going over the luxury tax limit. The fact of the matter is that getting rid of Buchholz's salary was worth more to the Red Sox at this point than what they actually got in return. It was obvious they weren't going to get a Luis Castillo type prospect for Buchholz as the Marlins would have been stupid to surrender him for Buchholz. I think Dombrowski looked around, determined that the market wasn't that great for him. If it had been, I think he would have dealt him already. At this point the real prize is to be a good deal under the luxury tax limit so they can make a deal if they need to at the deadline, whether they need bullpen help or if they need a better bat than Mitch Moreland - for example, perhaps Bautista signs elsewhere for a year and the Red Sox acquire him at the deadline to DH and would have the funds available without going over the limit. Staying away from going over the limit is crucial. If Otani is available after the offseason the Red Sox need to be in position to bid a huge amount for him without worrying about huge penalties, and of course, the season afterwards the free agent market is flush with talent, and of course the Sox have their own talent to tie up, starting (and maybe ending) with Betts. The return on Buchholz is less important than the other benefits they get by going under the limit, so I can't complain too much. And yeah, I have no doubt that Buchholz will pitch very well for the Phillies, become prime trade bait at the deadline, net the Phillies a really good prospect, much better than Tobias, and then Buchholz will disappoint whatever team picks him up. Then he'll be a free agent and get himself a good contract elsewhere and be the same maddening pitcher he's always been. Buchholz was a good pitcher for the Sox, but not what I had hoped he'd be. He was kind of a disappointment, but certainly not a failure. I'll always fondly remember the no-hitter and how good he was in 2010 and how great he was when he took the mound in 2013. I'll remember how many times I thought he needed to be booted back to Pawtucket, and I'll always be annoyed that he came up so small when he was needed in 2016. If he had held up his end of the bargain the Red Sox would still have Anderson Espinoza or Michael Kopech (Pomeranz would not have been needed and only one of those pitchers would have went for Sale) in the organization. So Carl Pavano (along with Tony Armas gotten for Mike Stanley) begot Pedro Martinez which begot Clay Buchholz (as a compensation pick) which now stands as Josh Tobias. Yeah, .254 in high A at 23 with poor defense and no speed is nothing to get excited about. "Good bat" is a relative term. I don't see anyone here talking about their plans for Jantzen Witte in the team's future trade plans. That .254 is in 34 games and last year was his first full season in minors. So yea he's older, but it's because he was a college senior when drafted. It's not like it took him 5 years in minors to reach high A. In his first 188 games he's hit .301 on base% of .362 and an OPS of .801. So yea I think you can say he has a good bat. www.baseballamerica.com/majors/phillies-add-veteran-arm-clay-buchholz/#LkdmxX1c61WjKUMz.97
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Post by tonyc on Dec 21, 2016 16:08:59 GMT -5
Will always be grateful to him for game 4 2013 WS, which I regard as the key turnaround game. The sox had just lost that devastating game 3 due to interference on Middlebrooks against a strong club. Buccholtz was clearly hurt, threw no pitches 90mph, but mixed and matched pitches, ala Curt Schilling's bloody sock game (which received much more notoriety) until the bullpen and bats took over. Thanks Clay
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 21, 2016 16:24:51 GMT -5
Tobias also went to the Univ of Fla which has a great BB program. Not exactly Mountain State A&M. I'll give him this year to be on tract (AA/AAA), maybe becoming a Sean Coyle type. Worse case he's org filler & there is at least some value in that. IMO we now realize the importance (to DD) of being under the cap so I don't see anything that brings us over that #. At least until after the season starts.
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Post by soxjim on Dec 21, 2016 21:35:53 GMT -5
I''ve been supporting DD for his moves though thought for example we gave up too much for Kimbrel - but I understood/understand.
This - I don't like. After the Big 3 of Sale, Price, Porcello all other pitchers are a question. Two of the three you can't trust to pitch a full season and the other is Wright who hasn't played one full season either but he also has major questions when it comes to the weather.
From what I understood we were under the cap. So this move is solely to get lower so we can move one larger or two smaller moves.
But this team is built on the starters. DD left risk that the 3 backend starters (2 or maybe even 3) might not cut it. I'd like to have had a 4th. I don't want to have to see the Big 3 have to pitch too many extra innings before the playoffs. I would have liked Erod and Pomz for example to have had a light number of innings to start with. Now we've added risk when I don't feel we should have and got nothing in return. Just don't like it.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 21, 2016 22:49:47 GMT -5
Furthermore, he was behind Rodriguez, Pomeranz and Wright in the rotation pecking order here so he wasn't going to get the chance to pitch like a 3. I meant he would pitch like a 3 for Philly, perfect case of a guy who needed a change of scenery. As for Miley, how about 200IP of terrible rather than mediocrity. Maybe I just remember too much of the good Clay and give him too much credit. But I still think he has the ability to be very good for 150 innings. That's worth more than nothing. I relly wont be surprised if he pitches really well next year. Then again I wont be surprised if he sucks. Well you summed up Clay well enough and that inconsistency is maddening. Wade has tailed off, especially the last year, but prior to that he has pitched 194,203,201,194 with an ERA+ of 122,109,86 and 96. He has a career OPS+ of 96 with a FIP of 3.91. He's been for the most part the epitome of mediocre and 200 IP along with that has alot more value then even some of those who think they know number more than most regarding stats etc. The volume is under-rated by most because they think finding a dependable league average replacement is easy, it's very hard to dependably find that.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 21, 2016 23:08:44 GMT -5
Yeah, .254 in high A at 23 with poor defense and no speed is nothing to get excited about. "Good bat" is a relative term. I don't see anyone here talking about their plans for Jantzen Witte in the team's future trade plans. That .254 is in 34 games and last year was his first full season in minors. So yea he's older, but it's because he was a college senior when drafted. It's not like it took him 5 years in minors to reach high A. In his first 188 games he's hit .301 on base% of .362 and an OPS of .801. So yea I think you can say he has a good bat. www.baseballamerica.com/majors/phillies-add-veteran-arm-clay-buchholz/#LkdmxX1c61WjKUMz.97Just like Jantzen Witte. Tobias will be 24 and 5 months, starting the season in high-A. Again, "good bat" is a relative term here.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 22, 2016 6:49:25 GMT -5
Just like Jantzen Witte. Tobias will be 24 and 5 months, starting the season in high-A. Again, "good bat" is a relative term here. www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post/_/id/6086/rotation-overstock-bumps-buchholz-out-of-bostonWitte is an organizational player, a guy that's not seen as a prospect, he's not even in our top 60. While Tobias is a fringy prospect, he's a prospect with a chance to play in majors as a bench guy or an up and down guy. Law also thinks he moves to third long term.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 22, 2016 7:01:53 GMT -5
The Red Sox didn’t score gold in Tobias, but Buchholz has seemed to have fallen out of favor in Boston. To get him and his salary off the books for a player with a bat-first second base profile isn’t a bad haul. Now freshly 24 years old, it wouldn't be surprising to see a quick start in Salem before he is sent off to Portland in Double-A. He may never be Jose Altuve, but some fine tuning, especially in the field, he could be a serviceable role player down the road. At the very least, he isn't $13.5-million.www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/21/14036862/the-boston-red-sox-get-josh-tobias-from-phillies
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Post by Sammy on Dec 22, 2016 16:57:33 GMT -5
Picking up 13.5 million was too much for a 6th starter. That's kind of what Buchholz proved he could be last season. He's in his 30's and he's losing his "upside" by the minute. I thought it was a poor move to pick up the option when Vance Worley is getting nontendered for 3.5 million by the Orioles and he had the better season last year. We have some people saying they did not get enough for Clay and others saying that Clay was not worth the $13.5M to begin with, which would mean DD got Philly to overpay. If you average it out this was probably a reasonable enough trade. It was worth it to some teams to gamble on Clay at $13.5 on a short term commitment, but there was little surplus value.
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Post by Sammy on Dec 22, 2016 17:23:03 GMT -5
As usual, this particular trade can be justified in isolation ... Buchholz really isn't all that valuable a chip, is unreliable, the salary relief is a reasonable consideration, etc, etc. But, when looked at in overall context, it starts to break down. Since this is a direct comparison, would you rather have Buchholz and Espinoza, or Pomeranz and Tobias? I realize that wasn't the trade, of course, but that's the effect of Dombrowski's moves when you boil it down. He jumps from trade to trade, trying to use whatever assets he can to upgrade the major league roster at that particular moment. Which, you know, isn't the worst thing, doesn't make him the devil. But I do think it almost inevitably weakens the team over the long haul. He should look south to Foxboro. Belichick knows that luck plays a big enough role in the playoffs that you should shoot for 12 wins every year instead of 16 in any particular year. Because, even when you win 16, someone can always catch a pass on his own helmet and screw everything up for you. You can't really compare a trade deadline deal to an offseason deal when pennant race and playoffs were part of the Pomeranz equation. I don't want to revisit the value of Pomeranz vs. Espinoza, but are you saying (or would you have said, without the benefit of hindsight) that DD shouldn't have made the move for Pomeranz and banked on a Clay rebound instead, with the way Clay had been pitching in 2016? Even if you want to compare apples to oranges, you have to consider 13.5m minus whatever Pomeranz gets in arbitration in with the fruit.
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