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Realistic outcomes for the 2017 season
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 15, 2017 12:51:30 GMT -5
I'll bet against Benintendi putting up an 800+ OPS in his first full year; it's rare to do that. And so I don't think he should hit 2nd (which should be your best hitter), although his LH-ness is ideal. Benintendi won't be JBJ/Xander 2014 bad - but he also isn't Mookie Betts and we can't just assume that it'll be a bump-less transition This is one of those times where OPS is really a wrong measure to use, because the only question I have with Benintendi is how quickly his power will develop. High OBP-low SLG players are underrated by OPS, because OBP is the much more important statistic but SLG has a much larger variance. And since the inverse of OBP is out percentage, you want the highest OBPs toward the top of the lineup. Benintendi may not put up a .450+ SLG in his first full season, but I do expect an OBP over .350 and wouldn't be surprised by one close to .375. "Isn't Mookie Betts" is an unfair standard. I actually think that Mookie Betts is Benintendi's best comp. His defense won't be as good, but his hitting profile looks similar.
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Post by soxjim on Jan 15, 2017 13:05:44 GMT -5
You yourself stated that these concerns are just concerns, and that this team is built to win. I don't think anyone here wears deeply tinted rose colored glasses. It is true that injuries to CV, Swihart, Leon could again decimate the catching staff; (or any other position); or that the Sox offense could falter. This is true for EVERY team. That's the game, any game. Murphy's Law is real. But the Sox young, versatile and talented team seems better able to cope with their problems than other teams with theirs. Poor hitting from Leon and CV won't sink this team. An injury to a starter or reliever won' t sink this team. Young, Castillo, Brockstar, Rutledge, Hernandez, Travis, Swihart, Butler, are actually pretty good positional depth; better then most teams. As are all the mLB FA signings like Dominguez. So while being aware of potential problems is always smart, accepting just how strong, balanced and talented is this young team seems the most realistic and healthiest approach. Maybe I'm tainted by 3 of the last 5 years being disasters but I see a lot more questions/concerns on this team than other people seem to. I still love the roster and expect big things but I see enough realistic red flags that I can see a non playoff team without there even being anything out of the ordinary happening. Can't this be said for nearly every team other than the Cubs and maybe Cleveland? The Red Sox went from last to 1st/champion then back to last again. Anything can happen if you just focus on "what if it all goes wrong?" It has gone "all wrong" in the past. So what does "out of the ordinary mean" when we've done the last to 1st to last in successive years? Once you've seen a 3 year run like we have had recently, then anything is possible.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 15, 2017 14:14:20 GMT -5
I guess I should have put speedy in quotes, but yes, he is "speedy" vs alternatives like Panda, Leon, CV, Moreland, who would not be leading off. The Sox should remain among the best baserunning teams, especially after adding Beni. Pedey, while not a burner, uses the speed he has very well, has always been a good base runner, and will swipe 10 - 15 bases, stretch singles and score from 1B and 2B easily. So, yes, a top of the order of speedy, good running Pedey, Beni, Betts sets up the heart of the order beautifully. It's a good thing.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jan 15, 2017 14:49:16 GMT -5
Other positive developments that I think we (could) likely see take place this season include:
-Xander taking another step forward in power department, which I still personally think is more "when" than "if" -Swihart forcing his way into every day role with enough glove to allow bat to play, earns rep as one of better offensive backstops in league -Wright shows last season is not a fluke, and drives his value way up as a potential trade piece/controlled asset
I also think a prospect or two (Dalbec, Travis?) will take an unexpected (by most) step forward, somewhat easing anxiety over a depleted system.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 16, 2017 1:06:11 GMT -5
Other positive developments that I think we (could) likely see take place this season include: -Xander taking another step forward in power department, which I still personally think is more "when" than "if" -Swihart forcing his way into every day role with enough glove to allow bat to play, earns rep as one of better offensive backstops in league -Wright shows last season is not a fluke, and drives his value way up as a potential trade piece/controlled asset I also think a prospect or two (Dalbec, Travis?) will take an unexpected (by most) step forward, somewhat easing anxiety over a depleted system. Love it. But do not want to trade Wright. He is much too valuable, especially if he shows consistency that you seek
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 16, 2017 1:13:23 GMT -5
Other positive developments that I think we (could) likely see take place this season include: -Xander taking another step forward in power department, which I still personally think is more "when" than "if" -Swihart forcing his way into every day role with enough glove to allow bat to play, earns rep as one of better offensive backstops in league -Wright shows last season is not a fluke, and drives his value way up as a potential trade piece/controlled asset I also think a prospect or two (Dalbec, Travis?) will take an unexpected (by most) step forward, somewhat easing anxiety over a depleted system. Love it. But do not want to trade Wright. He is much too valuable, especially if he shows consistency that you seek Yeah you never trade quality starting pitching, especially when you're trying to win. Also Swihart probably won't get enough at bats to show that he turns into one of the better hitting catchers in the league next year unless there's injuries. I hope he does show strides and shows this year that he's the starting catcher of this team going forward from 2018 and beyond though. I hope he forces the Sox into thinking that with his play.
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Post by sparkygian on Jan 16, 2017 1:44:07 GMT -5
I'm hoping this is a suitable thread for this thought. It has to do with the outcome, only what if Pedey goes down for the season? How many more times can he keep coming back from injury, aging, and still be the same cornerstone? I know he's not that old, but he goes 'all-out', and that seems to me to take a heavy toll on players.
How nice it would have been to have a Moncada to take his place. I thought we had the nucleus of a good, solid young, potential all-star infield coming up between Devers, Xander, Moncada, and maybe Travis. To go along with The B's in the outfield. There's always the potential that one, or more, of these youngsters flames-out, and comes up short of being an All Star, or just a solid career. Still, it was exciting to dream about.
So, I worry about Pedroia staying healthy, cause he's a difference maker for us, and gives the Sox two first division starters in the infield. Without Pedey the Sox only have one, and three biq question marks. That doesn't sound like a playoff-bound team, to me anyways.
I hope Pedey stays healthy, and Sale is also healthy and dominant.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 16, 2017 2:45:03 GMT -5
I'm hoping this is a suitable thread for this thought. It has to do with the outcome, only what if Pedey goes down for the season? How many more times can he keep coming back from injury, aging, and still be the same cornerstone? I know he's not that old, but he goes 'all-out', and that seems to me to take a heavy toll on players. How nice it would have been to have a Moncada to take his place. I thought we had the nucleus of a good, solid young, potential all-star infield coming up between Devers, Xander, Moncada, and maybe Travis. To go along with The B's in the outfield. There's always the potential that one, or more, of these youngsters flames-out, and comes up short of being an All Star, or just a solid career. Still, it was exciting to dream about. So, I worry about Pedroia staying healthy, cause he's a difference maker for us, and gives the Sox two first division starters in the infield. Without Pedey the Sox only have one, and three biq question marks. That doesn't sound like a playoff-bound team, to me anyways. I hope Pedey stays healthy, and Sale is also healthy and dominant. Well Pedrioa is signed until 2021. Moncada wouldn't of been replacing Pedrioa anyways. He would of been replacing either Sandoval or JBJ down the road. The Sox probably wouldn't be content to pay 14 million a year for Pedrioa to be a bench player by 2018 or 2019. I hope for good health from Pedrioa but the Sox could survive if he went down for some amount of time as long as they didn't lose him for extended period of time or the rest of the year even. The two players that the Sox need to keep healthy is Sale and Mookie. This is the 2 best and most irreplaceable players on the team. Sure they got Chris Young and could move Benintendi to RF but that isn't even to close to what Mookie can give the team. The Sox have Eduardo Rodriguez for depth in case of a Sale injury but he isn't close to what Sale is. Keeping Mookie and Sale might be the two most important things the Sox do this year until it comes to playoff time. Yes they're a playoff team with everyone in the division getting worse and the Sox getting better outside of losing Ortiz.
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Post by sparkygian on Jan 16, 2017 6:43:23 GMT -5
PedroFF45, how long do you expect Pedroia to be a steady, good contributor, with his injury-prone, all-out demeanor? Do you think he will be able to go that far, as an A.S. caliber player? He has to be one of the most under appreciated players in either league. I look at his career, and think if any young player put up two or three years of production similar to what Pedroia has done every year for ten years now, that player would be talked about much more than Pedroia seems to be. Also, your response got me to thinking about how shallow this team is with position players who are proven, consistent, above average producers at the plate. Except for Xander, Betts, and Pedroia, every other position player is really a big uncertainty. Where a bad year of production at the plate is pretty much an outlier for those three, a bad season offensively, from the other positions would definitely not be a shock to me at all. Maybe I could say that Moreland should also be mentioned with Xander, Betts, and Pedroia, as far as being a safe bet to know what to expect from on offense, but Moreland isn't known for offense, and the Sox aren't counting on him putting up big offensive numbers. So on offense, the Sox really only have three players that are 'consistent, sure things.' I would love to see JBJ take that next step forward, cause I would like to be able to count on his offense, as well as his defense. As for DH, it would also be nice if the real Hanley Ramirez stepped forward this year. He's obviously quite capable of big things, but so unpredictable in the latter half of his career.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 16, 2017 10:27:40 GMT -5
It was realistic outcomes not expectations and the point was to highlight the negative because the positive has been highly covered. Was trying to highlight a realistic bottom of the range that doesn't include catastrophic injuries. Most of your negatives are based on nothing or at least nothing apparent.
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Post by rookie13 on Jan 16, 2017 11:10:51 GMT -5
PedroFF45, how long do you expect Pedroia to be a steady, good contributor, with his injury-prone, all-out demeanor? Do you think he will be able to go that far, as an A.S. caliber player? He has to be one of the most under appreciated players in either league. I look at his career, and think if any young player put up two or three years of production similar to what Pedroia has done every year for ten years now, that player would be talked about much more than Pedroia seems to be. Also, your response got me to thinking about how shallow this team is with position players who are proven, consistent, above average producers at the plate. Except for Xander, Betts, and Pedroia, every other position player is really a big uncertainty. Where a bad year of production at the plate is pretty much an outlier for those three, a bad season offensively, from the other positions would definitely not be a shock to me at all. Maybe I could say that Moreland should also be mentioned with Xander, Betts, and Pedroia, as far as being a safe bet to know what to expect from on offense, but Moreland isn't known for offense, and the Sox aren't counting on him putting up big offensive numbers. So on offense, the Sox really only have three players that are 'consistent, sure things.' I would love to see JBJ take that next step forward, cause I would like to be able to count on his offense, as well as his defense. As for DH, it would also be nice if the real Hanley Ramirez stepped forward this year. He's obviously quite capable of big things, but so unpredictable in the latter half of his career. What exactly do you mean by the "real" Hanley Ramirez? I don't think there's many people on this forum who are unhappy with how he performed last year.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 16, 2017 11:58:50 GMT -5
I've said it for about 8 years now but - This Team is Nothing Without Big Papi. That said the 2017 Red Sox have enough to win the AL East - and Toronto still looks strong all of you who think it will be a walk - especially with the pitching (if everyone stays healthy, of course but same could be said for any starting staff). Still, I think the line-up falls off pretty quickly after 1-5 if we assume the top five are some iteration of Mookie, Benintendi (looks great, but this will be first full year of MLB ball), Pedroia, Ramirez, Bogaerts (who can be a bit streaky). I like Bradley very much, but his past performance really lends itself to the "streak hitter" moniker. This doesn't mean he's stuck with that but, until he proves otherwise it's prudent to assume that's his profile. Sandoval at his career averages is a #6 or 7 hitter, but whether he can still be that - and I am hopeful that he can - remains to be seen. And then we have some real question marks at First Base and Catcher. I agree with jimed14 that catchers should be first and foremost defense first, hit second, and legitimately really should be your #9 hitter in an AL line-up unless he can prove otherwise. It is likely Leon's job to start the season with Vazquez as the back-up. Swihart is the real wild-card here if he can improve his defense. But, barring an injury to the other two he's likely in AAA until June. Moreland is a strict platoon player at best (but with Farrell...), and even then, he took a dip last year vs. RHP. Was that the beginning of the end or just an aberration remains to be seen. I am not as bullish on Sam Travis here as others, mostly because 1) he was injured last year; 2) he hasn't played MLB ball; and 3) I am not sure his skill set profiles as an MLB first baseman. The bench is weak - Brock Holt! Young, Vazquez and a replacement-level player. Rusney Castillo could finally prove some value but then he'd be a 5th OF which is unlikely worth the price tag, barring a significant injury. I've lost any hope for Allen Craig and you should, too. There is no position player I can look at - besides Swihart and maybe - maybe - Travis - currently in the system who could come up say in June or so and make a positive impact. As someone who didn't want to overpay in years or dollars for Encarnacion, I am disappointed they didn't get him at the cost he settled for. Three years at that money is going to prove a bargain. I get the luxury tax implications but next year's FA class is weak when it comes to offense, and I still don't think Devers will be ready until 2019 at the earliest - even then, he'll be a very young rookie. The season and how far this team goes will ride on the pitching. They are still a big, high OBP bat light as far as I'm concerned and I don't see that being found for dollars only until the 2018-19 FA market, which means, barring a significant trade or someone playing above his projections, this is what you have for the next few years. Unless, of course, some guy who's now working as a tennis pro decides to come out of retirement.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 16, 2017 12:25:01 GMT -5
PedroFF45, how long do you expect Pedroia to be a steady, good contributor, with his injury-prone, all-out demeanor? Do you think he will be able to go that far, as an A.S. caliber player? He has to be one of the most under appreciated players in either league. I look at his career, and think if any young player put up two or three years of production similar to what Pedroia has done every year for ten years now, that player would be talked about much more than Pedroia seems to be. Also, your response got me to thinking about how shallow this team is with position players who are proven, consistent, above average producers at the plate. Except for Xander, Betts, and Pedroia, every other position player is really a big uncertainty. Where a bad year of production at the plate is pretty much an outlier for those three, a bad season offensively, from the other positions would definitely not be a shock to me at all. Maybe I could say that Moreland should also be mentioned with Xander, Betts, and Pedroia, as far as being a safe bet to know what to expect from on offense, but Moreland isn't known for offense, and the Sox aren't counting on him putting up big offensive numbers. So on offense, the Sox really only have three players that are 'consistent, sure things.' I would love to see JBJ take that next step forward, cause I would like to be able to count on his offense, as well as his defense. As for DH, it would also be nice if the real Hanley Ramirez stepped forward this year. He's obviously quite capable of big things, but so unpredictable in the latter half of his career. I think Pedrioa has a long career ahead of him. I'm pretty sure he'll last until the remainder of his contract. Has he been fully healthy the past 3 years? No. Has he really suffered anything really career threatening to this point either? Not really. It's up to Pedroia and the Sox to keep him healthy with more days off and what not. It's achievable. Players go as hard as Pedrioa does and they have lasted late in their careers. For example, Adrian Beltre. Pedrioa is still only 33/34, so he should be good for a few more healthy years without too much decline in play either. I know no one would notice he's declining with his swing. Maybe the range at second will get a little worse, but he'll still have plenty of range there to get the job done for a few more years. As far as position players, Benintendi is going to be a part of that solid group of Pedroia, Betts, and Xander. He's that solid and can flat out play. I have no idea what Moreland will bring. If he can't perform, then the Sox have Sam Travis waiting around in AAA or they can make a trade at first base mid season. Pablo and Hanley should be solid offensively at least, who knows about Pablo defensively. Swihart could also be some sort of upgrade offensively if Vasquez and Leon can't hit at all. The Sox have options and depth position wise, which is exactly what a team wants and needs in order to go far into the season. Important depth is just as much of a need in a organization than anything else to make it through a season. The Sox are in a great position this year.
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Post by ctfisher on Jan 16, 2017 13:33:41 GMT -5
I think the pitching staff on this team is the type of staff that 100+ win teams have. The lineup should have 6 hitters (Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Pedroia, Benintendi, Ramirez) that range from above average to excellent, and hopefully Sandoval can provide league average production, which I think is a reasonable expectation given that I don't think anyone's ever seen him in better shape. I think there's a decent chance that Hanley really takes to DH and he actually improves on last year.
I also think that people are overlooking the possibly or even likelihood of Bogaerts, Bradley and Betts continuing to take steps forward. If Mookie adds a little and shows the ability to drive the ball the other way with a little more authority, there's almost no way to pitch to him. I think this is the year that Xander puts it all together for a full season, assuming that Farrell gives him rest at appropriate intervals. I think .300 and 25+ homers is a probability all things considered- even with the way he fell off the second half of the year, he finished at .294 and 21, with a 3.2 percentage point jump in walk rate too, and he'll play the entire season at 24. Bradley is entering his statistical peak as well, and he cut about 5 points off his k rate last year- I think if he gets it down to 20%, he probably winds up at .275, and there's no reason to think that he can't provide similar pop. On top of all that, given the way Benintendi plays and the fact that he now has some good major league experience under his belt, I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't give us a very solid year.
Catcher is the one spot that concerns me, but I'm still bullish on Swihart in the long(ish) term. Maybe he needs more time to work on his defense- we'll see if that's the case in time, but even if he does, I think he should be considered a viable depth option for the corner infield spots. He's an excellent athlete by all accounts, and even if his bat doesn't exactly match the typical profile, I think he'd give us perfectly acceptable production if nothing more. He was a top 30 prospect in baseball a year ago at this time if memory serves, and that talent didn't just disappear. In the meantime, I think between Leon and Vazquez we should get top tier defense so as long as they crack the mendoza line, take a few walks and plant a few mistakes in the monster seats, I will not be complaining. In my mind, the only thing that can derail this team would be the injury bug running wild. That's not to say that I expect them to win it all necessarily, but I will be very surprised if we stay healthy and someone else wins the AL East
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 16, 2017 14:47:23 GMT -5
I think people are overlooking how much of an issue catcher could be for this squad. Everyone is so nonchalant about this trio like it's just a given that one of them will be good enough. Remember when you have 3 options but no clear cut number one you can be in for a difficult situation. When one struggles the itch with be to jump To the next one right away. If you do that then you run the real risk of no one having a chance to get comfortable and in a groove. If you don't then you run the risk of long stretches of bad performance. Then you make a switch and if the next guy needs an adjustment period it extended it etc. Try and look at these guys without the Red Sox prospect homer lenses. Vasquez has given us no real reason to feel comfortable his bat will be good enough. That's different than shown signs he might be able to. Sure those are there, but anyone who's comfortable he will is lying to themselves. Swithart is the opposite... sorta. There is no reason to think his defense, framing and game calling is even major league average and his bat isn't the type that can carry that. Leon is probably the safest bet but before a 2.5 month insane hot streak that was followed but a couple of utter crap; he wasn't even in the picture for good reason. Baseball history is littered with guy's who had a good 2 month run and didn't do a thing other wise. I'm more concerned about catching than I am 3rd base. Are you aware the average AL catcher hit .230/.295/.386. I doubt it. I think most people are unaware just how low the bar is offensively at catcher. If you are even just below those numbers above but well above average defensively then overall you would be above average.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 16, 2017 15:40:54 GMT -5
I also think a prospect or two (Dalbec, Travis?) will take an unexpected (by most) step forward, somewhat easing anxiety over a depleted system. Not a bad point. However, the concerns stem from the fact that the guys we're saying this about are ranked in the top 5. For pretty much the past decade, the players we'd say that about were usually ranked outside the top 10, and pre-Kimbrel trade were ranked in the later teens. Consider that last offseason Luis Ax. Basabe was ranked 12th after a Lowell campaign that forecasted a similar breakout. It's more pronounced if you were to go back farther. Of course, those deeper systems were behind an MLB team with as stacked a U-25 list (Betts, Bogaerts, Rodriguez, the catchers) as the club has now either.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 16, 2017 18:05:13 GMT -5
The bench is weak - Brock Holt! Young, Vazquez and a replacement-level player. Rusney Castillo could finally prove some value but then he'd be a 5th OF which is unlikely worth the price tag, barring a significant injury. I've lost any hope for Allen Craig and you should, too. There is no position player I can look at - besides Swihart and maybe - maybe - Travis - currently in the system who could come up say in June or so and make a positive impact. I'm not sure how many teams have a better bench than Holt, Young and Vazquez. The biggest problem is the lack of outfield depth in AAA. I hope Castillo can do something, but then again, they'll be hurting to keep under the salary cap if that's the mandate for this season if they need to resort to Castillo for a long period of time.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 16, 2017 18:14:31 GMT -5
PedroFF45, how long do you expect Pedroia to be a steady, good contributor, with his injury-prone, all-out demeanor? Do you think he will be able to go that far, as an A.S. caliber player? He has to be one of the most under appreciated players in either league. I look at his career, and think if any young player put up two or three years of production similar to what Pedroia has done every year for ten years now, that player would be talked about much more than Pedroia seems to be. Also, your response got me to thinking about how shallow this team is with position players who are proven, consistent, above average producers at the plate. Except for Xander, Betts, and Pedroia, every other position player is really a big uncertainty. Where a bad year of production at the plate is pretty much an outlier for those three, a bad season offensively, from the other positions would definitely not be a shock to me at all. Maybe I could say that Moreland should also be mentioned with Xander, Betts, and Pedroia, as far as being a safe bet to know what to expect from on offense, but Moreland isn't known for offense, and the Sox aren't counting on him putting up big offensive numbers. So on offense, the Sox really only have three players that are 'consistent, sure things.' I would love to see JBJ take that next step forward, cause I would like to be able to count on his offense, as well as his defense. As for DH, it would also be nice if the real Hanley Ramirez stepped forward this year. He's obviously quite capable of big things, but so unpredictable in the latter half of his career. I think Pedrioa has a long career ahead of him. I'm pretty sure he'll last until the remainder of his contract. Has he been fully healthy the past 3 years? No. Has he really suffered anything really career threatening to this point either? Not really. It's up to Pedroia and the Sox to keep him healthy with more days off and what not. It's achievable. Players go as hard as Pedrioa does and they have lasted late in their careers. For example, Adrian Beltre. Pedrioa is still only 33/34, so he should be good for a few more healthy years without too much decline in play either. I know no one would notice he's declining with his swing. Maybe the range at second will get a little worse, but he'll still have plenty of range there to get the job done for a few more years. As far as position players, Benintendi is going to be a part of that solid group of Pedroia, Betts, and Xander. He's that solid and can flat out play. I have no idea what Moreland will bring. If he can't perform, then the Sox have Sam Travis waiting around in AAA or they can make a trade at first base mid season. Pablo and Hanley should be solid offensively at least, who knows about Pablo defensively. Swihart could also be some sort of upgrade offensively if Vasquez and Leon can't hit at all. The Sox have options and depth position wise, which is exactly what a team wants and needs in order to go far into the season. Important depth is just as much of a need in a organization than anything else to make it through a season. The Sox are in a great position this year. He's actually had surgery nearly every year of his career, mostly off-season. I predicted several years ago that he's likely to be more injury prone because he plays all out diving for balls when the team is up ten in the ninth and he was on the wrong side of 30. By 34 YO decline is normal no way around it, you must have grown up in the steroid era to believe otherwise. I also said he'd likely have 1 more good year in him and I fear we just saw it. I wanted to trade him a few years ago for Kole Calhoun and relief pitching. Kole is a similar hitter to Pedroia plays very good D in right and we'd have had Betts at second. But he was "healthy" last year and that gives me hope. Edit: He actually had surgery on his knee this offseason a few days after the season ended.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 16, 2017 18:20:37 GMT -5
Even if Pedroia slides to a 2-3 win player, he's still worth his contract and won't hurt the team. There is something to be said for having a few long-term Red Sox players around in leadership roles, especially with Papi gone now. He's a great role model on a young team.
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Post by sparkygian on Jan 16, 2017 18:31:22 GMT -5
PedroFF45, how long do you expect Pedroia to be a steady, good contributor, with his injury-prone, all-out demeanor? Do you think he will be able to go that far, as an A.S. caliber player? He has to be one of the most under appreciated players in either league. I look at his career, and think if any young player put up two or three years of production similar to what Pedroia has done every year for ten years now, that player would be talked about much more than Pedroia seems to be. Also, your response got me to thinking about how shallow this team is with position players who are proven, consistent, above average producers at the plate. Except for Xander, Betts, and Pedroia, every other position player is really a big uncertainty. Where a bad year of production at the plate is pretty much an outlier for those three, a bad season offensively, from the other positions would definitely not be a shock to me at all. Maybe I could say that Moreland should also be mentioned with Xander, Betts, and Pedroia, as far as being a safe bet to know what to expect from on offense, but Moreland isn't known for offense, and the Sox aren't counting on him putting up big offensive numbers. So on offense, the Sox really only have three players that are 'consistent, sure things.' I would love to see JBJ take that next step forward, cause I would like to be able to count on his offense, as well as his defense. As for DH, it would also be nice if the real Hanley Ramirez stepped forward this year. He's obviously quite capable of big things, but so unpredictable in the latter half of his career. What exactly do you mean by the "real" Hanley Ramirez? I don't think there's many people on this forum who are unhappy with how he performed last year.
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Post by sparkygian on Jan 16, 2017 18:33:24 GMT -5
I mean that his stats have been all over the place the last half-dozen years. There's only a couple of proven, consistent offensive performers on this team, imo, after Ortiz left.
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Post by sparkygian on Jan 16, 2017 18:39:47 GMT -5
The Sox essentially lost their best hitter this offseason, and gained a new best pitcher. A wash maybe? Obviously this team is pitching loaded. Without Ortiz in the lineup it's going to be quite interesting to see how the lineup performs, especially with Betts and Ramirez. Now that the Sox (Dombrowski) have set themselves up to go for it right now, what's gonna happen if Bradley really regresses, Benintendi is decent, and Ramirez regresses significantly from last year, without Ortiz in the lineup. Does that mean that Devers, and maybe Groome is gone by midseason after we go for a big bat, that's consistent, year-in, year-out?
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Post by tookme55 on Jan 16, 2017 19:44:40 GMT -5
Sox will not bring in $10M to luxury tax calculation by putting Castillo back on 40 man roster.
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Post by rookie13 on Jan 16, 2017 20:07:02 GMT -5
The Sox essentially lost their best hitter this offseason, and gained a new best pitcher. A wash maybe? Obviously this team is pitching loaded. Without Ortiz in the lineup it's going to be quite interesting to see how the lineup performs, especially with Betts and Ramirez. Now that the Sox (Dombrowski) have set themselves up to go for it right now, what's gonna happen if Bradley really regresses, Benintendi is decent, and Ramirez regresses significantly from last year, without Ortiz in the lineup. Does that mean that Devers, and maybe Groome is gone by midseason after we go for a big bat, that's consistent, year-in, year-out? I get what you're saying, but to just focus on Ramirez, I was thrilled with the way he performed this last season. I don't think there's any huge red flags that indicate his performance will plummet. The transition back to the infield clearly helped his confidence, which in turn helped his performance. His defense may not be great, but he's still a threat on offense.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 16, 2017 21:02:00 GMT -5
I don't know if this is exactly what is meant by realistic outcomes, but I'll try making my predictions as to what I think will happen during the 2017 season.
I think that Price/Porcello/Sale won't be as dominating as Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, but they'll pitch pretty well. I think their biggest asset will be quantity as in the innings they soak up.
I think Porcello takes a step back and will have mediocre luck as far as run support/bullpen support just because he had such great offensive support, etc in 2016 and those extreme things always seem to reverse the following season for no apparent reason. Still, I think he'll pitch fairly well. I expect an ERA in the upper 3s.
I think Sale will have issues with the 1st year in Boston thing. I think his ERA will wind up around 3.5, pretty good but not what people were really expecting.
I think David Price will actually be the ace of the staff. I think he'll bounce back, not to 2015 levels, but I can see him with an ERA around 3.25.
I think out of Pomeranz, E-Rod, and Wright, Wright will emerge as the reliable 4th starter, putting up a season that would rate as one of Wakefield's better seasons. I can see more injury issues for E-Rod (that's not hard to see) and ineffectiveness and injuries for Pomeranz - I'm just not sold on him.
I think Kelly will emerge as the big guy out of the pen. It wouldn't shock me if Kimbrel's control got to the point he even loses his job to Kelly or possibly Thornburg. I think Carson Smith will help the Sox down the stretch after he shakes off some rust.
All in all, the pitching will be pretty darn good.
I'm more concerned about the offense. I can see the Red Sox scoring 75 less runs, not all because of the loss of Ortiz, but there will be a huge dropoff from Ortiz to Moreland, and I have trouble believing that Hanley, despite being mostly a DH, and Pedroia will stay healthy all season the way they did in 2016. I can see dropoffs in their 2017 performances.
I'm not sold that they'll get much offense out of Moreland who might give them a 2016 Travis Shaw performance.
Betts and Bogaerts should be great, although it's hard to see Betts topping what he did last year as his season was ridiculous. Maybe he wins the batting title but with less home runs. Hard to see him blasting 31 again, but you never bet against Mookie.
I think Bogaerts will need to take a step forward and hit with the consistency the way he did in 2015 but with the emerging power he showed in 2016. I think eventually he'll have a ridiculously huge MVP type season. It could be next year, but it wouldn't shock me if it occurred in 2019.
JBJ is tough to gauge. It's as if a ton of his offense came during that hitting streak. The rest of the year, his stats weren't that hot. I'd like to think with maturity he'll put up roughly the same numbers but with better consistency, so maybe 2017 is that year.
I think Sandoval is the big key to the offense. They are depending heavily on him and don't have much of a safety net behind him other than Brock Holt who's better off as a supersub and might be needed if Pedroia gets injured. It's encouraging to see Sandoval in shape and motivated. I do question if his hitting skills from his early days are still intact. They're really paying him to do what they thought he'd do if he was in a hitter's ballpark, rather than put up the surface stats he was putting up in San Fran. I do think that's what they'll get out of him, though, a .710 OPS, which is a step up from what Shaw gave them. The Red Sox will have to find a RH bat better than Rutledge though.
The Sox will get a ROY performance from Benintendi although I think he won't emerge until the 2nd half. With some experience I can see him having a torrid 2nd half, hitting .300 with 20 plus homers, so the Sox will definitely get an upgrade in LF.
I think the Sox will start Leon, watch him hit like he did in the minors and majors prior to his ridiculous two months last season, and he'll lose his job to Vazquez who won't hit either. I anticipate the Red Sox to get very little offensively out of the catchers until July when I think Swihart will take the job and run with it. I'm thankful that Varitek has his back and Dombrowski is listening to him.
I also think that by the end of July the Sox will be looking for a power bat and/or will be playing Sam Travis at 1b. I think Travis will be better than some people are projecting, can help them by August, and could be a reasonably decent to good regular next season.
I think the Sox offense will be in the top 5 as other teams improve their offense. There will be plenty of nights where they miss Ortiz, but I think just by the law of averages they won't be so extreme as to winning 15-1 and then losing 4-3 the way they so often seemed to do last season.
I don't see the Red Sox as a juggernaut that will win 100 games. They haven't done that since 1946 and I don't expect this team to be the one that accomplishes that. I do think this team will win around 92 games. I think they won't be quite as good as last season talent wise but will play closer to their pythagorean record. I think they'll finish 1st in a close race with Toronto and will win a playoff round (David Price will actually start and win a game!) before losing to Tito in a 7 game series where we're complaining about the difference between Tito and Farrell.
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