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2017 Draft Thread
redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 6, 2017 19:19:14 GMT -5
From what I read Romero projects as a #4 starter or a good reliever so I must have read something different.
Honestly, with all the trouble he's been in, I'd prefer they stay away from him. I don't think he has Groome upside. If it had been one incident..but it's been a handful, nothing that screams stay away, but enough that I'd be really concerned.
If available I'd rather see Houcke or definitely Hiura whose bat sounds intriguing. I doubt Peterson drops to 24. I don't really think Hiura gets that far either - I've read Houston would grab him by then. Who really knows?
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Post by larrycook on Jun 6, 2017 20:22:43 GMT -5
Yeah I wouldn't touch Romero with our first round pick. No way. His talent doesn't seem that much greater (if at all) than the alternative potential options at #24 to risk his behavior. My current board of feasible options is something like: 1. David Peterson – LHP (although I feel like he has moved up to the 10-20 range so he's pretty unlikely to be here) 2. Evan White – 1B/OF 3. Tanner Houck – RHP 4. Keston Hiura – 2B/OF/DH 5. Griffin Canning – RHP 6. Blayne Enlow – RHP 7. Bubba Thompson – OF 8. Hans Crouse – RHP 9. Nate Pearson – RHP 10. Nick Allen – SS I like your list. It is possible the first 5 are off the board by 24. Which is sad become I am a huge houck fan. I would be extremely happy if we could draft and sign enlow. Love the delivery and I think he could be a starter in the big leagues.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 7, 2017 1:10:17 GMT -5
From what I read Romero projects as a #4 starter or a good reliever so I must have read something different. Honestly, with all the trouble he's been in, I'd prefer they stay away from him. I don't think he has Groome upside. If it had been one incident..but it's been a handful, nothing that screams stay away, but enough that I'd be really concerned. If available I'd rather see Houcke or definitely Hiura whose bat sounds intriguing. I doubt Peterson drops to 24. I don't really think Hiura gets that far either - I've read Houston would grab him by then. Who really knows? Yeah, per MLB. I take that as their likely (50%) outcome, but he's got plus-or-better velocity for a LHP (sitting 93-94, although inconsistently) with a swing-and miss slider and varying reports on the CH. His command is solid, even above-average. And, he misses a lot of bats against good collegiate hitters. He's obviously had work ethic and conditioning issues, and while I don't see him as physically projectable in terms of growth, there may be some refinement/conditioning/coaching gains there. BA rates him a little more highly, and I think a 2 or even 1a is his upper-tier (10-20%) projection. He's got the raw stuff to get there with some moderate improvement. HS pitching is by far the worst gamble in the draft, so if they're going pitching, they're better off (IMO) going for a reclamation project like Romero, or a CW-defying collegiate (short, reliever-to-SP conversion, that sort of thing). There's also the issue of MLB proximity...with the coming salary crunch, it would benefit them to have options to add to Shawaryn/Anderson/Beeks in the 2-3 year ETA range for mid-rotation to back-end SPs. Right now it looks like Sale will be a re-sign (hopefully) and Porcello gone via FA. All of that said, I'd hope they would take BPA...the roster considerations are secondary and should only come into play if it's a coin-flip. Obviously (see Kopech), great arms are readily available in that range or later if the scouting is done right. I guess that while I generally prefer taking some risks on upside, in this instance some of "BPA" (given the state of their minor leagues) may be "lower risk."
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Post by telson13 on Jun 7, 2017 1:19:17 GMT -5
FWIW, as Jimoh alluded to, I think some of the issue may lie with an ineffective coaching/leadership environment. Behavioral/attitude issues are almost invariably brought out or severely exacerbated by culture, and the childish behavior of the coach almost surely filtered down. My sense is that, in a structured professional environment, Romero's acting out would disappear. Research shows that dysfunctional subordinate behavior in the most problematic employees is frequently a mirror of the most dysfunctional behaviors in the immediate next-tier of supervisors. I don't doubt that it's even more pronounced in a team environment, where there's only one "supervisor."
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Post by jdb on Jun 7, 2017 8:47:06 GMT -5
I think Telson changed my opinion of a Romero pick.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2017 9:03:20 GMT -5
FWIW, as Jimoh alluded to, I think some of the issue may lie with an ineffective coaching/leadership environment. Behavioral/attitude issues are almost invariably brought out or severely exacerbated by culture, and the childish behavior of the coach almost surely filtered down. My sense is that, in a structured professional environment, Romero's acting out would disappear. Research shows that dysfunctional subordinate behavior in the most problematic employees is frequently a mirror of the most dysfunctional behaviors in the immediate next-tier of supervisors. I don't doubt that it's even more pronounced in a team environment, where there's only one "supervisor." For sure, that's what you have scouts and stuff for. They'll meet Romero and try to find out if he's childish and in need of some direction or if something worse is going on. And sometimes you have to balance risk and reward. All of the worst fears about Jonathan Denney basically came true, but in the third round it would probably a sensible risk. On the opposite ends of the spectrum, the Red Sox were convinced that Buchholz was more immature than anything criminal with the laptop incident, and they ended up being right and ended getting fantastic value for a #42 pick (even if his career was totally frustrating). And it depends on who else is on the board, too. Jay Groome was clearly the best talent at #12 last year. If the Red Sox have Romero clearly ahead of everyone else on the board and they think he'll stay on the right path then they should obviously go for it. But if it's close, talent-wise? If Romero is slightly ahead of someone who hasn't had those problems? That's part of what makes the draft so tough. My issue is that I don't know if I love Romero on talent alone at #24, even without the off-field silliness.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2017 9:40:41 GMT -5
Sneak preview: Nice discussion of Romero, Hiura, and others on the podcast that'll hopefully be out today, on which we spoke with JJ Cooper from Baseball America.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 7, 2017 11:19:07 GMT -5
FWIW, as Jimoh alluded to, I think some of the issue may lie with an ineffective coaching/leadership environment. Behavioral/attitude issues are almost invariably brought out or severely exacerbated by culture, and the childish behavior of the coach almost surely filtered down. My sense is that, in a structured professional environment, Romero's acting out would disappear. Research shows that dysfunctional subordinate behavior in the most problematic employees is frequently a mirror of the most dysfunctional behaviors in the immediate next-tier of supervisors. I don't doubt that it's even more pronounced in a team environment, where there's only one "supervisor." Let me begin by saying I generally agree with most of your opinions Telson, but I can't really get behind this. I hate to see makeup downplayed particularly in this sport. No other sport requires draftees to make it through long, grueling, and likely monotonous seasons of development before being ready for the big show. It takes serious dedication to persevere and maintain focus through the minor leagues for 2-6 years. I would be particularly worried if our front office and scouting staff subscribed to the mentality bolded above. I can't see how the research you mention would't have serious 'chicken or the egg' or 'it takes two to tango' issues that cloud interpretation. For Romero specifically, sure its not like there are reports of rape, but there are repeated incidents in a relatively short timeframe. That to me, suggests an inability to learn/adapt and gives me immediate Denney warning signs (potentially Chris Acosta now?). These are guys who seem to blow every additional chance you give them. Ultimately, like Dunne mentioned, I'll leave it to the team/scouts to evaluate, and I'm not saying Romero isn't worth evaluation. I just don't see an appreciable different in talent between Romero and the other guys in this range to take on the risk of his character. I'll always put my money on the Sam Travis/Michael Chavis types, who by all accounts, are obsessed with the game and will put every ounce of their energy into making the most out of their talents. These are the guys that go home and watch baseball after playing it all day, and couldn't be less concerned with the nightlife scene in Fort Meyers (which I realize isn't likely to be much of a 'thing').
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 7, 2017 11:45:54 GMT -5
I agree with that sentiment. People do not change. Definitely dig deep into Romero's effort and decisions, but I also prefer folks who have always shown the right actions and drive. I feel this more than ever after watching the albatross known as The Panda attempt to play baseball every night. I really liked Ben Cherington, but man that is not a "gift that keeps on giving". It was known how Sandoval didn't take care of his weight and how he had no plate discipline. How has that worked out?
Check the kid out thoroughly, but you have to be totally sure. If his talent or ceiling is the same as some others...I'd go with the others.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 7, 2017 12:10:58 GMT -5
Let me begin by saying I generally agree with most of your opinions Telson, but I can't really get behind this. I hate to see makeup downplayed particularly in this sport. No other sport requires draftees to make it through long, grueling, and likely monotonous seasons of development before being ready for the big show. It takes serious dedication to persevere and maintain focus through the minor leagues for 2-6 years. I would be particularly worried if our front office and scouting staff subscribed to the mentality bolded above. I can't see how the research you mention would't have serious 'chicken or the egg' or 'it takes two to tango' issues that cloud interpretation. For Romero specifically, sure its not like there are reports of rape, but there are repeated incidents in a relatively short timeframe. That to me, suggests an inability to learn/adapt and gives me immediate Denney warning signs (potentially Chris Acosta now?). These are guys who seem to blow every additional chance you give them. Ultimately, like Dunne mentioned, I'll leave it to the team/scouts to evaluate, and I'm not saying Romero isn't worth evaluation. I just don't see an appreciable different in talent between Romero and the other guys in this range to take on the risk of his character. I'll always put my money on the Sam Travis/Michael Chavis types, who by all accounts, are obsessed with the game and will put every ounce of their energy into making the most out of their talents. These are the guys that go home and watch baseball after playing it all day, and couldn't be less concerned with the nightlife scene in Fort Meyers (which I realize isn't likely to be much of a 'thing'). Are you kidding? You've apparently never been to Blu Sushi.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 7, 2017 12:18:23 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jun 7, 2017 12:24:02 GMT -5
I've got to say, Warmoth reminds me of Chatham in a way that he has no standout tool but is seemingly solid across the board with a chance to stick at SS. I can't see our SP group reacting well to him as our first round draft pick.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 7, 2017 12:43:49 GMT -5
I've got to say, Warmoth reminds me of Chatham in a way that he has no standout tool but is seemingly solid across the board with a chance to stick at SS. I can't see our SP group reacting well to him as our first round draft pick. Most people want to dream on upside instead of being bored by safe picks with higher floors.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 7, 2017 13:02:37 GMT -5
I've got to say, Warmoth reminds me of Chatham in a way that he has no standout tool but is seemingly solid across the board with a chance to stick at SS. I can't see our SP group reacting well to him as our first round draft pick. I'd be pretty happy, and not just because I'm on the UNC faculty and have seen him play several times. Almost every projection I've seen has him gone before us. Also not worryingly oversized at Chatham is; 6-0, 180 or 190, decent power and speed. On his walk-up song: www.dailytarheel.com/article/2017/05/weekly-walk-up-shortstop-logan-warmoth-shares-his-reasoning-ahead-of-acc-tournament
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 7, 2017 13:14:21 GMT -5
I took this picture at the gym at work recently; thought it might be useful for the draft:
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Post by Guidas on Jun 7, 2017 13:14:39 GMT -5
Any word/reports on which (if any) top 10 guys may fall, or which "difficult sign" guys Sox may be considering?
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 7, 2017 13:35:38 GMT -5
I took this picture at the gym at work recently; thought it might be useful for the draft: Haha...Yes, please "No Floor(s)" in the upcoming draft, particularly those who have comps like Marrero, Chatham, etc. The Red Sox need to take some risks with some guys with higher ceilings.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 7, 2017 14:50:04 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2017 16:00:07 GMT -5
A thank you to vermontsox for always being an MVP this time of year with the links. Outstanding.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 7, 2017 16:26:29 GMT -5
A thank you to vermontsox for always being an MVP this time of year with the links. Outstanding. I second that! He's the man.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 7, 2017 16:34:27 GMT -5
A thank you to vermontsox for always being an MVP this time of year with the links. Outstanding. Happy to contribute!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2017 18:02:26 GMT -5
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Post by azblue on Jun 7, 2017 19:03:03 GMT -5
ramireja: "I've got to say, Warmoth reminds me of Chatham in a way that he has no standout tool but is seemingly solid across the board with a chance to stick at SS. I can't see our SP group reacting well to him as our first round draft pick."
I would disagree. Baseball America rates him as having the best infield arm among college players in the draft.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 8, 2017 0:19:45 GMT -5
I still gamble on Ramero as of right now. Baseball America says fastball that tops out at 97, slidder that's been dominant all year and a change up that's improving and has a chance at being plus. Control is his biggest flaw as a pitcher. No surprise there.
If you want a safer guy Nick Allen SS is interesting. Callis calls him best defender in draft. He's 5'8'' like 160 so almost no power, but is said to be a good hitter. Also has good speed. We could use a young Marrero if he can actually hit for average.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 8, 2017 10:43:30 GMT -5
FWIW, as Jimoh alluded to, I think some of the issue may lie with an ineffective coaching/leadership environment. Behavioral/attitude issues are almost invariably brought out or severely exacerbated by culture, and the childish behavior of the coach almost surely filtered down. My sense is that, in a structured professional environment, Romero's acting out would disappear. Research shows that dysfunctional subordinate behavior in the most problematic employees is frequently a mirror of the most dysfunctional behaviors in the immediate next-tier of supervisors. I don't doubt that it's even more pronounced in a team environment, where there's only one "supervisor." Let me begin by saying I generally agree with most of your opinions Telson, but I can't really get behind this. I hate to see makeup downplayed particularly in this sport. No other sport requires draftees to make it through long, grueling, and likely monotonous seasons of development before being ready for the big show. It takes serious dedication to persevere and maintain focus through the minor leagues for 2-6 years. I would be particularly worried if our front office and scouting staff subscribed to the mentality bolded above. I can't see how the research you mention would't have serious 'chicken or the egg' or 'it takes two to tango' issues that cloud interpretation. For Romero specifically, sure its not like there are reports of rape, but there are repeated incidents in a relatively short timeframe. That to me, suggests an inability to learn/adapt and gives me immediate Denney warning signs (potentially Chris Acosta now?). These are guys who seem to blow every additional chance you give them. Ultimately, like Dunne mentioned, I'll leave it to the team/scouts to evaluate, and I'm not saying Romero isn't worth evaluation. I just don't see an appreciable different in talent between Romero and the other guys in this range to take on the risk of his character. I'll always put my money on the Sam Travis/Michael Chavis types, who by all accounts, are obsessed with the game and will put every ounce of their energy into making the most out of their talents. These are the guys that go home and watch baseball after playing it all day, and couldn't be less concerned with the nightlife scene in Fort Meyers (which I realize isn't likely to be much of a 'thing'). Sure, I don't necessarily disagree re: the preference for guys like Travis or Chavis who seem single-minded about the game. The point I'm trying to make is kind of the old adage, "there are no bad students, only bad teachers." Now, that's not really a universal truism, but there is a lot of truth to it. Toxic environments affect different people to varying degrees, depending on their personalities and what else is going on in their lives. Often, it can be related to the same qualities that make a person great (see the Sale jersey incident). The trick is to take that misdirected negative energy and channel it. "Fiery" properly directed in the right instance is a positive, but the same quality can be crippling in others. But I agree with you and James (I'd love to see Peterson or Houck land in their laps) that if the talent differential isn't large enough, or the sense in scouting interviews that Romero is truly coachable isn't there, it's not worth the risk.
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