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How long should the Red Sox wait on JBJ? (This Year)
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 21, 2019 22:23:54 GMT -5
I'd be curious, you're the GM of a team and need a CFers, what do you think his value is worth? He's basically a 2 WAR CFer whose currently hot. He's controlled for a year and a half. Relievers don't have the same value as an every day regular. It's funny, In a round about way, it sounds as though you're still agreeing with me. That he's not that great and if you could pull the trigger, you would. You're arguing a team wouldn't even offer that, which I think is debatable. Nothing that would make it a productive trade for a Red Sox team that doesn't have a good 4th outfielder. So, you're saying he's not worth a good reliever, but if you're the Red Sox, you wouldn't trade him for one anyways even if they were offered and it was above your percieved value of JBJ? And if JBJ goes back to hitting like he was back in May? That's the risk. If he's hitting between .750-.800 OPS he's very valuable, but that can come crashing down. He wasn't worth anything over a month ago and was a dead even 0.0 wins above replacement. If he continues his up trend he'll finish to where ZiPs had him, 2.7. He's a gamble.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 21, 2019 22:41:34 GMT -5
Nothing that would make it a productive trade for a Red Sox team that doesn't have a good 4th outfielder. So, you're saying he's not worth a good reliever, but if you're the Red Sox, you wouldn't trade him for one anyways even if they were offered and it was above your percieved value of JBJ? And if JBJ goes back to hitting like he was back in May? That's the risk. If he's hitting between .750-.800 OPS he's very valuable, but that can come crashing down. He wasn't worth anything over a month ago and was a dead even 0.0 wins above replacement. If he continues his up trend he'll finish to where ZiPs had him, 2.7. He's a gamble. To answer all of your questions, no, I don't think the Red Sox should trade Bradley.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 21, 2019 22:46:12 GMT -5
So, you're saying he's not worth a good reliever, but if you're the Red Sox, you wouldn't trade him for one anyways even if they were offered and it was above your percieved value of JBJ? And if JBJ goes back to hitting like he was back in May? That's the risk. If he's hitting between .750-.800 OPS he's very valuable, but that can come crashing down. He wasn't worth anything over a month ago and was a dead even 0.0 wins above replacement. If he continues his up trend he'll finish to where ZiPs had him, 2.7. He's a gamble. To answer all of your questions, no, I don't think the Red Sox should trade Bradley. Fair enough. I wasn’t even demanding it originally. I just asked if it would be worth exploring since before you couldn’t give him away and now he’s raking. If he continues hitting he’s worth more than you could get back. If he reverts then you’re in trouble over there.
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Post by soxjim on Jun 21, 2019 23:51:37 GMT -5
He's worth way more than any middle relief pitcher you idiot. Only the best possible closers come close to 2.5 wins per year. And the Red Sox wouldn't fill that spot with someone else? Billy Hamilton has a 0.8 WAR and would cost nothing. Say they traded JBJ for a 1.0 WAR RP, you'd have to add JBJs replacement to the equation. So really it's 1.8. They wouldn't just not have a CFer. That's also assuming JBJ continues this uptrend. He's shown regression each of the last two seasons and was absolutely abysmal until late. I'm not a big fan of JBJ but you take the risk with JBJ. IMO you are a "scared GM." Suggesting Billy Hamilton in any manner -- you just want a floor of someone that isn't completely abysmal and you are scared JBJ will revert to 2014. That's 5.5 years ago. Billy Hamilton?? His OBP is averaging .300 the last 3 years and he gives you zero power. IMO Billy Hamilton only belongs on a championship team as a Dave Roberts. JBJ WAS on a championship team and WAS a big contributor. The big risk is that you as a GM is scared to take risks though the bigger risk is being cautious and going with a guy who can't get on base much with zero power. We've had discussions on here that WAR can be overrated but you are treating it like it is the defining stat. JBJ helped the Sox win a title. Hamilton helps his teams get top draft picks. IMO you are making an enormous mistake in undervaluing JBJ because you are so nervous that his 2014 is "real." I had posted last year on another site that I would platoon JBJ until he started to get on base and i used WAR as a stat. I got vilified and one poster for example said something like "JBJ is a good hitter because the Red Sox score more runs when he is in the lineup vs when he is out." - I kid you not he said it without taking into account a ton of other factors such as who is pitching etc. ANd many people seemed to agree with him. That's over-the-top. But you're suggesting of Billy Hamilton while you saw JBJ perform in playoffs last year with a slash of .200/.360/.500./835 is over-the-top. You're not giving a champion his due respect. Instead you want to see the Sox manage the game in your view - which I think is scared GM. From your discussions of trading Betts, breaking down the core, scared of Tampa Bay - you're scared that you're seeing ghosts.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 22, 2019 1:36:15 GMT -5
And the Red Sox wouldn't fill that spot with someone else? Billy Hamilton has a 0.8 WAR and would cost nothing. Say they traded JBJ for a 1.0 WAR RP, you'd have to add JBJs replacement to the equation. So really it's 1.8. They wouldn't just not have a CFer. That's also assuming JBJ continues this uptrend. He's shown regression each of the last two seasons and was absolutely abysmal until late. I'm not a big fan of JBJ but you take the risk with JBJ. IMO you are a "scared GM." Suggesting Billy Hamilton in any manner -- you just want a floor of someone that isn't completely abysmal and you are scared JBJ will revert to 2014. That's 5.5 years ago. Billy Hamilton?? His OBP is averaging .300 the last 3 years and he gives you zero power. IMO Billy Hamilton only belongs on a championship team as a Dave Roberts. JBJ WAS on a championship team and WAS a big contributor. The big risk is that you as a GM is scared to take risks though the bigger risk is being cautious and going with a guy who can't get on base much with zero power. We've had discussions on here that WAR can be overrated but you are treating it like it is the defining stat. JBJ helped the Sox win a title. Hamilton helps his teams get top draft picks. IMO you are making an enormous mistake in undervaluing JBJ because you are so nervous that his 2014 is "real." I had posted last year on another site that I would platoon JBJ until he started to get on base and i used WAR as a stat. I got vilified and one poster for example said something like "JBJ is a good hitter because the Red Sox score more runs when he is in the lineup vs when he is out." - I kid you not he said it without taking into account a ton of other factors such as who is pitching etc. ANd many people seemed to agree with him. That's over-the-top. But you're suggesting of Billy Hamilton while you saw JBJ perform in playoffs last year with a slash of .200/.360/.500./835 is over-the-top. You're not giving a champion his due respect. Instead you want to see the Sox manage the game in your view - which I think is scared GM. From your discussions of trading Betts, breaking down the core, scared of Tampa Bay - you're scared that you're seeing ghosts. You can scroll back a page and see all the numbers I've posted by JBJ including a month by month breakdown over the last 3 seasons and how he's been progressively getting worse each of the last 3 years. In terms of qualifying defense at CF this year, he's 10th. He's been abysmal with the bat this year and is just turning it on. I never said that Billy Hamilton was a better player. In fact, I've acknowledged that he's worse with the bat with lesser upside. What I did say is that despite being atrocious with the bat, Hamilton has been slightly better in regards to WAR, just slightly. I've said JBJ has higher upside than what you could get back, but the floor is an abysmal player, like he was for the first couple of months, like he's been for prolonged stretches of times each and every year of his career and his seasonal value has been going down. I also never advocating for a swap of the two. I feel like you could get a good reliever for JBJ and get Hamilton as a plug. Again, also said that was a quick example of a guy whose available and cheap. I can put more thought into it if you'd like. I'm not scared of him reverting to 2014. I'm scared of him reverting back to April and May. In regards to trading Betts. When did I ever once say he's not an MVP caliber player? I've said the organization likely can't afford both Betts and Martinez now that Xander and Sale are on the books. If they don't think they're going to retain Betts, move him. That's nothing against the player. Yeah, what's wrong with Tampa Bay? They still have a better record than you despite how poor they've played and how white hot you've gotten. They were very far ahead, but they've slowed down tremendously recently. Their run differential is better than the Red Sox, they've beaten you head-to-head and Snell is lights out (so was Glassnow before his injury). They have very, very good pitching, depth, and young talent. In a 1-game series facing Snell, that's a scary matchup.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 27, 2019 16:07:52 GMT -5
Here, have some baseball statistics.
Since 5/20 (35 games):
Marcus Betts .217/.345/.420 Jackie B. Junior: .300/.408/.608
Am wondering if we're looking at some kind of Freaky Friday body-swap situation.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 27, 2019 17:14:45 GMT -5
Here, have some baseball statistics. Since 5/20 (35 games): Marcus Betts .217/.345/.420 Jackie B. Junior: .300/.408/.608 Am wondering if we're looking at some kind of Freaky Friday body-swap situation. Do we need a "How long should the Red Sox wait on Mookie?" thread?
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 28, 2019 9:13:34 GMT -5
Here, have some baseball statistics. Since 5/20 (35 games): Marcus Betts .217/.345/.420 Jackie B. Junior: .300/.408/.608 Am wondering if we're looking at some kind of Freaky Friday body-swap situation. Or maybe a Space Jam type thing where Jackie stole Mookie’s talent?
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Post by ivor on Jul 2, 2019 18:25:48 GMT -5
JBJ OPS month by month:
March/April: .406 May: .843 June. .992
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 2, 2019 18:26:40 GMT -5
JBJ OPS month by month: March/April: .406 May: .843 June. .992 Best player on the Red Sox for more than a month.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 2, 2019 19:00:32 GMT -5
JBJ OPS month by month: March/April: .406 May: .843 June. .992 Best player on the Red Sox for more than a month. What if it’s just making his swing change muscle memory?! 🤣 The eternal conundrum of JBJ. Just when you think he’s figured it out, when you’re sure there’s some consistency baked in...well, you know. It is good to see, though. He’s been hot for a while but scorching lately. Still think he might end the year in the .260/.360/.460 range, which is probably asking a lot. My frustration with the team has relegated me to watching individuals like JBJ (especially with the impending potential offseason drama), Devers, and Bogey. Still curious what Chavis ends up doing, too. I am simultaneously dreading the trade deadline, when they send Casas, Duran, and Darwinzon to Detroit for Boyd, who then goes 2-6, 4.48 with a 5.13 xFIP but “kept them in games” and “gave them a chance at the WC.” My ultimate Sox nightmare: an extremely talented but underperforming team faced with the cusp of a possibly harshly closing window and limited minor league talent, convinced to “go for it.” I cant watch 🤣🤣🤣. But yeah, prob see me on the tail end of a 15-3 run.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 2, 2019 20:35:25 GMT -5
Best player on the Red Sox for more than a month. What if it’s just making his swing change muscle memory?! 🤣 The eternal conundrum of JBJ. Just when you think he’s figured it out, when you’re sure there’s some consistency baked in...well, you know. It is good to see, though. He’s been hot for a while but scorching lately. Still think he might end the year in the .260/.360/.460 range, which is probably asking a lot. My frustration with the team has relegated me to watching individuals like JBJ (especially with the impending potential offseason drama), Devers, and Bogey. Still curious what Chavis ends up doing, too. I am simultaneously dreading the trade deadline, when they send Casas, Duran, and Darwinzon to Detroit for Boyd, who then goes 2-6, 4.48 with a 5.13 xFIP but “kept them in games” and “gave them a chance at the WC.” My ultimate Sox nightmare: an extremely talented but underperforming team faced with the cusp of a possibly harshly closing window and limited minor league talent, convinced to “go for it.” I cant watch 🤣🤣🤣. But yeah, prob see me on the tail end of a 15-3 run. I'm biased. I thought this is the JBJ we'd get from day 1 after I saw his spring training swing with no movement. But now I think this is JBJ.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Jul 2, 2019 20:38:34 GMT -5
Jbj is hitting .240 with a .754 ops that’s just ridiculous considering the start he got off to. Color me amazed
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 2, 2019 20:46:05 GMT -5
Maybe next year we can not do this crap when JBJ is hitting .180 in May...you'd think we'd learn eventually.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 2, 2019 21:12:27 GMT -5
Maybe next year we can not do this crap when JBJ is hitting .180 in May...you'd think we'd learn eventually. Very doubtful.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 3, 2019 21:14:42 GMT -5
What if it’s just making his swing change muscle memory?! 🤣 The eternal conundrum of JBJ. Just when you think he’s figured it out, when you’re sure there’s some consistency baked in...well, you know. It is good to see, though. He’s been hot for a while but scorching lately. Still think he might end the year in the .260/.360/.460 range, which is probably asking a lot. My frustration with the team has relegated me to watching individuals like JBJ (especially with the impending potential offseason drama), Devers, and Bogey. Still curious what Chavis ends up doing, too. I am simultaneously dreading the trade deadline, when they send Casas, Duran, and Darwinzon to Detroit for Boyd, who then goes 2-6, 4.48 with a 5.13 xFIP but “kept them in games” and “gave them a chance at the WC.” My ultimate Sox nightmare: an extremely talented but underperforming team faced with the cusp of a possibly harshly closing window and limited minor league talent, convinced to “go for it.” I cant watch 🤣🤣🤣. But yeah, prob see me on the tail end of a 15-3 run. I'm biased. I thought this is the JBJ we'd get from day 1 after I saw his spring training swing with no movement. But now I think this is JBJ. Same. I was genuinely close to convinced that he had made a fundamental shift. I think the inconsistency will always be there, but I do also think he may, on balance at the end of the year, be a “solid” hitter, in the 105-110 wRC+ range. His ability to draw walks really helps.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 15, 2019 16:41:52 GMT -5
SSS, but any concerns that JBJ might be going into another skid?
In his last 39 AB over 15 days Jackie is slashing .231/.318/.308/.626 with 0 HR.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 17, 2019 0:57:46 GMT -5
Another poor showing for JBJ. He's quietly having a bad month so far.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 17, 2019 14:14:52 GMT -5
He is streaky. He will always be streaky. I don't get why this isn't universally understood yet.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 17, 2019 14:27:20 GMT -5
He is streaky. He will always be streaky. I don't get why this isn't universally understood yet. He's very streaky and last month he hit like he was MVP of the league. At the end of the day, if he has a .650 OPS it doesn't matter if he had a .500 in one month and a .900 another. If he finishes .650 he should be treated like a .650 player. Right now, his overall numbers aren't good enough to allow him to go on another cold streak.
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Post by beavertontim on Jul 17, 2019 15:29:05 GMT -5
Not sure he is worth the 10,000,000 or there about he will get next year and 12 to 15 million a year his next contract will demand. Trade him while he ha value to the team. The team has too many other guys that will need big dollars to retain. JBJ dollars will be needed elsewhere.
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 17, 2019 15:31:22 GMT -5
I feel like there's been an adjustment to his streak. Seems like a larger diet of off-speed pitches recently which might be the league adjusting to his hot streak.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2019 15:37:20 GMT -5
Everyone is in such a rush to be right with doom and gloom conclusions. Every single player goes through slumps. Just because JBJ is in a week long one doesn't mean it's the beginning of a 2 month one.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 17, 2019 15:45:29 GMT -5
Everyone is in such a rush to be right with doom and gloom conclusions. Every single player goes through slumps. Just because JBJ is in a week long one doesn't mean it's the beginning of a 2 month one. In his last 11 games (49 plate appearances) he is hitting: .186/.286/.279/.565 I do admit the sample is small, but considering his overall numbers this year are bad, any sustained slump is going to be problematic for him. One thing I found interesting: At Fenway: .274/.389/.474/.863 162 PA Away: .191/.276/.321/.597 184 PA
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 17, 2019 15:50:49 GMT -5
Everyone is in such a rush to be right with doom and gloom conclusions. Every single player goes through slumps. Just because JBJ is in a week long one doesn't mean it's the beginning of a 2 month one. In his last 11 games (49 plate appearances) he is hitting: .186/.286/.279/.565 I do admit the sample is small, but considering his overall numbers this year are bad, any sustained slump is going to be problematic for him. One thing I found interesting: At Fenway: .274/.389/.474/.863 162 PA Away: .191/.276/.321/.597 184 PA At Fenway he's rewarded for going the other way. On the road not so much so he gets pull happy and hits into the shift. I really don't know why JBJ doesn't add the bunt to his arsenal. He's got the speed to beat them out and maybe if he did it often enough it might keep the defenses a bit more honest.
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