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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2013 20:35:19 GMT -5
I think it's time we start a thread on the Red Sox 2nd best prospect, RHP Matt Barnes.
He went 7-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 133 K's over 119.2 innings over two levels this past year. He struggled towards the end, but that could be credited to arm fatigue or a high .312 BABIP.
MLB.com says he has everything you want in a front-line starter, while soxprospects.com says a 2 or 3 starter. His fastball touches 98, but he relies on it a little too much. He has a good curveball, an average change-up, and he is likely to develop a fourth pitch. (Cutter or Slider) He has the ability to maintain velocity deep into starts, and he has good command.
He is likely to begin the 2013 in AA Portland and if all goes well, he could potentially end in Boston. This next year will really determine if he will make the big leagues- AA is usually the turning point. (Don't forget, in 2007 Clay Buchholz started in AA and ended in Boston)
I haven't personally seen Barnes pitch, but I will get to a few Portland games this year to see him do so. Hopefully, he can be that front-line starter that Boston has been desperately needing lately.
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Post by jmei on Jan 16, 2013 21:06:37 GMT -5
FYI: considering the quality of minor league defenses, a .312 BABIP is not especially high. The league-average BABIP in the Carolina League was .314 in 2010, for instance. Also note that in scout terminology, a true number one starter is exceedingly rare and a number two or three starter should be taken as a compliment, not a criticism. The latest version of the SoxProspects podcast has some good discussion on this subject. Here's a primer from John Sickels: www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters
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Post by raftsox on Jan 17, 2013 8:57:22 GMT -5
Additionally, his CV is probably only average at this point and the CU is below average. Both can and should improve, but he's a step further away than we should assume.
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Post by hammerhead on Jan 17, 2013 9:50:22 GMT -5
I remember seeing Barnes pitch for Uconn in Norwich CT at the same game that Theo attended. I thought at the time that there was no way in hell that Barnes could slide to the sox at #19 in the draft. I remember coming away not overally impressed by his fastball command, but I thought his curveball could eventually be a plus or plus plus pitch. I was actually surprised that many scouts didn't love the pitch as much as I did. It has depth and when he throws it down it had almost a natural 12-6 break. It never seemed to roll or loop up to the plate like you see with so many guys who throw a curve in college. It had good bite. He did need to tighten it up on a couple pitches, but I saw him really buckle some knees with the pitch. He did throw a ton of fastballs, but when he did throw the curve it was better than has been advertised.
He's a big horse of a guy, and the arm is definitely something to work with. I saw him both in warm ups and the game. He carried himself like a pro and even though his line that day was simply decent, he looked like a man among little leaguers.
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Post by lennsakata on Jan 17, 2013 9:56:14 GMT -5
The arm fatigue or endurance issue will be interesting to monitor. If I recall he faded hard down the final stretch in his last season at UConn and was being clocked at 90-91 over his last couple of starts while getting hit hard. Hopefully he and Webster are able to improve in this area and maintain their stuff into Aug/Sep
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2013 16:05:42 GMT -5
Alot of young pitchers are like that. It happened to Doubront this past year. After a couple full years of pitching under their belt, arm fatigue shouldn't be a big problem.
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Post by lennsakata on Jan 17, 2013 20:43:29 GMT -5
Doubront pitched about 70 innings more then he did in 2010 or 2011 so that's to be expected. The development of the change-up and how he handles an innings increase are the two things I'll be watching.
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Post by larrycook on Jan 25, 2013 14:19:12 GMT -5
Doubront pitched about 70 innings more then he did in 2010 or 2011 so that's to be expected. The development of the change-up and how he handles an innings increase are the two things I'll be watching. Don't pitchers that throw more than 40 innings in year 2 than over year 1, usually take a regress step back in year 3? I thought someone elses on this board posted that.
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Post by curll on Mar 12, 2013 6:39:44 GMT -5
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Post by sibbysisti on Mar 12, 2013 8:34:06 GMT -5
Has anybody seen him pitch this Spring? Undoubtedly he has pitched in games as ST is one month in. It would be helpful for the discussion if someone could put eyes on him and give a report.
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Post by raftsox on Mar 12, 2013 8:55:52 GMT -5
Interestingly, of the consensus top 4 prospects: Bogaerts, Barnes, Bradley and Webster, none may graduate this season. Bradley shouldn't unless things go horribly wrong for the MLB team, and there are enough people ahead of Webster that he probably won't either. Bogaerts has already been theorized as a potential #1 on the top 100 lists, but the other three could all move up given normal progression.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 12, 2013 10:33:23 GMT -5
I remember hearing last week that he gave up 2HR in an intra-squad game and someone (not here at Soxprospects) was saying there's a good chance he starts the year back in Salem. That would be disappointing. I'm curious if anyone else has any more info on this.
EDIT: Found the source -
Evan Lepler ?@evanlepler
MT @alexspeier: Matt Barnes gives up a pair of HRs in intrasquad game. // I've heard speculation he could return to Salem. Nothing official.
In reply to Alex Speier
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Post by chavopepe2 on Mar 12, 2013 13:15:20 GMT -5
Interestingly, of the consensus top 4 prospects: Bogaerts, Barnes, Bradley and Webster, none may graduate this season. Bradley shouldn't unless things go horribly wrong for the MLB team, and there are enough people ahead of Webster that he probably won't either. Bogaerts has already been theorized as a potential #1 on the top 100 lists, but the other three could all move up given normal progression. I think you'll see both Webster and Bradley graduate. It wouldn't really take something going horribly wrong for Bradley to get promoted mid-season. Look at the left field situation. All he has to do is play well and he'll get a shot early enough to graduate. As for Webster, I think there are enough questions in the starting rotation that if he plays well to start the season he'll be one of the first in line to come up from AAA. Both of these players control their own destiny, but I'd be surprised if they didn't graduate to be honest.
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danr
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Post by danr on Mar 12, 2013 13:36:28 GMT -5
I agree that there is a good chance that both Webster and Bradley will make it to the big club this season. Given the unimpressive OF the Sox have, and assuming that Bradley doesn't make the team out of spring training, which would be shocking, but does continue to hit at AAA, then he probably is first up, maybe before mid-season.
Webster has to be a SP, and I think he has a good chance of getting to the Sox rotation. Has there been a season in recent memory when one or more of the SPs hasn't gone down with an injury? All Webster has to do is be very good at Pawtucket.
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Post by mainesox on Mar 12, 2013 19:13:48 GMT -5
I think it's pretty safe to say that Bradley is the most likely to lose his rookie eligibility, but I don't think Webster is nearly as likely. Webster would have to make 8-10 starts to eclipse the 50 inning mark, so it would likely take a serious injury or a traded starting pitcher; the only other possible way would be if he made 5-6 starts over the course of the season, and then was called up in September and took a semi-regular turn in the rotation. It's certainly possible, but I'm not sure it's all that likely, especially considering he's not the only guy they could call up to take a turn in the rotation (in fact, if it's just one start, they might prefer to go with someone else and just let him be).
And obviously there's almost no chance Bogaerts or especially Barnes lose their eligibility.
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Post by raftsox on Mar 13, 2013 7:16:47 GMT -5
I think you'll see both Webster and Bradley graduate. It wouldn't really take something going horribly wrong for Bradley to get promoted mid-season. Look at the left field situation. All he has to do is play well and he'll get a shot early enough to graduate. As for Webster, I think there are enough questions in the starting rotation that if he plays well to start the season he'll be one of the first in line to come up from AAA. Both of these players control their own destiny, but I'd be surprised if they didn't graduate to be honest.[/quote] Horribly wrong might not be the best wording for Bradley. For him to graduate: 1. The team is competing for the playoffs and there are several players ahead of him who are either injured of vastly underperforming (he would need to be added to the 40 man roster). 2. The team is horrible, Ellsbury is traded/several players are injured ahead of him and they feel it's worth getting him 200 ABs for "seasoning". Webster is in a similar situation: 1. The team is competing for the playoffs and there are several players ahead of him injured (ahead of him are: Lester, Doubront, Lackey, Buchholz, Dempster, Rubby De La Rosa, Stephen Wright*, Chris Hernandez*, Franklin Morales**, Alfredo Aceves**, Drake Britton*). 2. The team is horrible and all of the above players are also out. * These players are lesser prospects who will likely get the first crack at the rotation depending on projected number of replacement starts necessary and rotation order. ** If the number of replacement starts is 1-3 these guys will get the first shot. So, it's not impossible that either or both graduate. I just think the odds are long and the front office is thinking more about 2014 with these players.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Mar 13, 2013 7:52:46 GMT -5
If Webster is pitching well in AAA he will be ahead of everyone on that list except the top five. RDLR will be pitching in two inning stints (most likely in AA), Drake Britton may not be pitching at all and if he is its in AA, Wright is a possibility, but Webster can easily pass him with a strong performance. Hernandez isn't good enough to hold back Webster. I agree that Morales or Aceves may get spot starts, but Morales is hurt right now and Aceves could easily be traded/released when the other bullpen arms get healthy.
I also think you're underplaying how easily Bradley could rack up enough at bats to graduate. It won't take several players ahead of him to get hurt. He is good enough that he will pass everyone on the outfield outside of Ellsbury and Victorino simply by playing well.
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Post by raftsox on Mar 13, 2013 7:56:26 GMT -5
I can see Bradley. I just don't think the team is so concerned with this season to bring him up without a clear need.
I disagree with you on Webster. If he comes up it won't be for a few starts that's why I have the others ahead of him.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2013 9:50:52 GMT -5
On Barnes' changeup ( link):
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 14, 2013 10:52:25 GMT -5
Great stuff. This guy's no dummy. He understands the trajectory he's on and where the roadblocks are. They weren't in Greenville mowing down over-matched batters with the hard stuff. Sounds as if he's well on his way to refining his secondary pitches. He'll need those in Portland for sure. We've got to be excited by the pitching depth at the top of the minor league food chain. That's before we even get to guys like Ownens or Buttrey.
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 30, 2013 13:18:24 GMT -5
This time last year and carrying on into midseason all the prospect talk was about Matt Barnes. He slowed down during the second half of the year which was attributed to fatigue. He now seems to be struggling out of the gate. What is more telling of his ability, his start last year or his start this year? Truth probably lies in the middle. Although he has been getting hit around he still has struck out 10.9 per 9 and walked 3.9 per 9. I feel like he is the forgotten prospect and would just like to hear what this community thinks of him.
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Post by sibbysisti on Apr 30, 2013 14:39:15 GMT -5
He's only moved down one spot in SP rankings to #4. And that's through no fault of him; Allen Webster just shot up the chart with an outstanding spring and early season success. Matt is a year younger than Webster and only in his second full year of pro ball.
Its nice to have a stable of young arms like Matt, Ranaudo, Webster and Rubby almost ML ready.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2013 14:45:37 GMT -5
Don't forget about Workman, Britton, and Wright, who are also solid pitching prospects not too far away from the majors. I wouldn't be surprised if Owens, Kukuk, and others quickly progessed this year either.
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Post by njsox on Apr 30, 2013 15:02:32 GMT -5
I think Barnes' lack of consistent secondary stuff has just come to the forefront a bit as well as his overall ability of being able to command his fastball away from the heart of the plate. His 10.9 k/9 and 2.83 k/bb ratio definitely show the underlying talent. The only expectation that has really changed for me is how quickly he would develop.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 30, 2013 15:11:17 GMT -5
Not that it really matters all that much because we a talking about a 14 inning sample size, but his FIP is only 3.20. Bad results happen when you have a .551 BABIP against and a paltry 57.4 LOB%. It is certainly possible that he is allowing the hard contact especially with runners on that would lead to an inflated BABIP and low LOB %, but as far as the stats are concerned he has pitched pretty well. (Again I will note the Silly Seriously Small Sample Size of 14 innings that we are trying to evaluate)
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