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2018 Red Sox roster building
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 24, 2017 11:41:14 GMT -5
I know everyone is on the Brentz bandwagon, but McCutchen is the better ballplayer, even if he's starting to decline. He'd be okay for a year, if somehow it came to that. I'd be all for McCutchen if the Sox somehow miss out on J.D. At this point I can't see missing out on Martinez. I can also see Brentz being the guy who goes when Martinez is signed. They both are the same player, only Martinez's bat is better. There is no scenario where the Red Sox trade for McCutchen to be either the DH or a bench player. Many other teams would value him more and give up more for him. And if the Red Sox outbid other teams, that's just dumb. Is that a fact?? I can see a scenario...
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 24, 2017 11:43:29 GMT -5
There is no scenario where the Red Sox trade for McCutchen to be either the DH or a bench player. Many other teams would value him more and give up more for him. And if the Red Sox outbid other teams, that's just dumb. If the Sox took McCutchen, it would be mostly a salary dump by Pittsburgh. I can't see much value going back. How can't you see McCutchen being a DH 3 times a week? Seems like it wouldn't be a big deal to me, unless he absolutely refuses to do that. Several teams would value him as an every day starter and would be very likely to give up more for him than the Red Sox should be willing to give up.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 24, 2017 11:48:45 GMT -5
There is no scenario where the Red Sox trade for McCutchen to be either the DH or a bench player. Many other teams would value him more and give up more for him. And if the Red Sox outbid other teams, that's just dumb. Is that a fact?? I can see a scenario... The scenario is that the Pirates want to give him away because the Red Sox are the only team interested in trading for him.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 24, 2017 11:59:01 GMT -5
The Sox should not even think of platooning Benintendi. Just because he did not hit lefties well this past season does not mean he will not hit them in the future. He has too much talent to limit it with platooning. He's had all of 164 plate appearances against lefties in his entire MLB career. It's insane to already be talking about platooning him. Even in that time, he's had good K/BB numbers against them (very close to his numbers against righties), he just hasn't hit for any power against them whatsoever. Part of that is probably just a sample size fluke (power numbers take a long time to stabilize), so even assuming no improvement in his skills, you'd expect better from him against lefties going forward. But given that he's still super young and that he at least sees the ball pretty well from lefties, it's likely that we will see a significant improvement in his skills as well. You don't hide a player like Benintendi from lefties, you give him every opportunity to figure them out.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 24, 2017 13:19:12 GMT -5
Is that a fact?? I can see a scenario... The scenario is that the Pirates want to give him away because the Red Sox are the only team interested in trading for him. So now you also know the scenario I was thinking of... you sure do know it all, I should take you to Vegas with me. On a serious note, I could see the Sox missing out on Martinez and valuing McCutchen as the next guy who best fits the Sox needs and also fitting financially. Let me ask you, if Martinez is gone, do you think we should stand pat? Don't you think we would then value McCutchen as much as another team? DH makes sense for him too...
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Dec 24, 2017 14:31:39 GMT -5
The scenario is that the Pirates want to give him away because the Red Sox are the only team interested in trading for him. So now you also know the scenario I was thinking of... you sure do know it all, I should take you to Vegas with me. On a serious note, I could see the Sox missing out on Martinez and valuing McCutchen as the next guy who best fits the Sox needs and also fitting financially. Let me ask you, if Martinez is gone, do you think we should stand pat? Don't you think we would then value McCutchen as much as another team? DH makes sense for him too... Another problem with DHing McCutch is whether he'd accept that role. He didn't like moving from center field last season. So I can see him not being thrilled being a DH. Do we really want another potentially unhappy player on the team? I'd rather stay put than go with McCutch. Even without JD, we're re a good team.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 24, 2017 14:49:00 GMT -5
So now you also know the scenario I was thinking of... you sure do know it all, I should take you to Vegas with me. On a serious note, I could see the Sox missing out on Martinez and valuing McCutchen as the next guy who best fits the Sox needs and also fitting financially. Let me ask you, if Martinez is gone, do you think we should stand pat? Don't you think we would then value McCutchen as much as another team? DH makes sense for him too... Another problem with DHing McCutch is whether he'd accept that role. He didn't like moving from center field last season. So I can see him not being thrilled being a DH. Do we really want another potentially unhappy player on the team? I'd rather stay put than go with McCutch. Even without JD, we're re a good team. I could see not preferring to DH.
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Post by swingingbunt on Dec 24, 2017 15:34:39 GMT -5
This has been the slowest off-season I can remember, so I did a little digging. Assuming no players will be able to completely finalize a contract prior to the start next year*, only 5 players have EVER signed a contract in excess of $80M this late in the off-season. And all but one of those players (Justin Upton) were represented by Scott Boras.
*Mark Teixeira, for example, decided to join the Yankees on December 23 but didn't have his contract finalized until January 6.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 24, 2017 16:41:32 GMT -5
Was there any discussion on using him as a platoon? I didn't see it. I agree with you-- no way I would even consider it. Beni is the type of player you loo to build yoru team for next 8-10 years. And not excited about McCutchen nor do I think The Sox have a shot for Machado. I can't imagine that the Sox would be willing to sign Machado for the 35 - 40 million a year, ten year contract that many are speculating he might be looking for. Even if they don't sign JDM. So a negotiating window would be kind of senseless, imo. Last season, when the Sox where feeling the pressure of the Yankees, and having a hard time scoring runs, especially homeruns, JDM was available for very little at the trading deadline. Why didn't the Sox get him then, if DD is really looking for that 'big bat' for the lineup? Seems like he wasn't as hot of an item back then, compared to how hot he became after his stint with Arizona. Was that super productive stint with Arizona an anomaly, or is it a sign of things to come, for JDM? Seems like the demand for 25 - 30 million/yr, and a seven year contract, are numbers that might be more in line with what JDM did for Arizona, albeit probably not quite that productive as he was for them. Don't even think Barry Bonds put up those kind of numbers very often. So other than the super hot run he had with Arizona, I can really understand why DD is hesitating on signing him for his demanded price. I know that I've given DD a hard time occasionally for giving up too much for the players he wants, but I like that he is holding firm on not giving in to Boras. I think the lineup for '18 will be more productive than it was last year, even with essentially the same cast of characters, except for a full season of Devers, hopefully. So maybe it would be wise to see what other options are available, as far as trades go. It seems like next season's roster doesn't have enough room for some of the Pawtucket grads, that should really be getting playing time in the Majors, at this point of their careers. Maybe the best option is to base a trade around Swihart, Travis, and/or Brentz. Maybe throw in Mata for a big trade. I'd hate to give up Chavis and Groome. Maybe some other team is looking to shed payroll, and would be interested in trading a cleanup hitter for some package of the four I first mentioned. If it's a really big contract that another team is looking to shed, then maybe we can mandate that Castillo be part of the package, in return. It's not like Castillo is old, or isn't capable of being a productive big leaguer, but right now he's probably a little overpriced, and he's blocked for playing time, at the big league roster. I'd also hate to give up Swihart, but with Vazquez given most of the catcher's duties, it doesn't seem like Swihart is really gonna be able to get enough of a chance to show that he can be regular contributor at the catcher's position with the Sox in '18. I don't believe that Cora's gonna want to take a chance with Swihart, over Vazquez, next year, even if Swihart has a really good Spring. I don't think that Swihart having a productive season in Pawtucket, is gonna make management truly a believer in him. It's probably gonna be necessary for him to show he can do it at the big league level, and I'm kind of doubting that management feels there's much breathing room next year to be experimenting much at the catcher position, with the team looking to get to the World Series next year. If DD can't find a solution for a big bat this offseason, without doing something ridiculous, then maybe it's best to wait until mid-season in '18 to make a move. Maybe by then, the team will have more answers about what to do with players like Travis, Swihart, and Brentz. Maybe by then the best of all situations could manifest itself; maybe the '18 Sox, even without a big offseason addition, won't have any offensive woes, and players like Swihart, and Travis will really take a big step forward in '18. Then the Sox will be looking at a whole different set of priorities, with a lot more financial flexibility, too. Why no Martinez at deadline? First we didn't have a ton of money and Martinez cost almost 5 million. So no Nunez and Reed, who added 1.5 war. Second Devers was like 5 games into his career and Pedroia had knee problems. You can argue Nunez was just as important as a power bat. Nunez was a spark plug, still think we might have beat Astros if he was healthy. Third he didn't really go cheap. I actually like the package they got for him. Lugo was 4th rated in system, Alcantara 15 and King was top 30, but has highest ceiling of the three. King is like guys we have past 30 like Cedrola, Castellanos and Flores. They might be low because they are young, but they have very high upsides. Alcantara is like a Lin, great SS, but so so bat. Lugo is a good defensive guy at 3rd base, decent bat, but lacks power. We didn't those type of infielders to trade, we need to keep guys like Chatham for SS depth. I also think trading for an OF in his big free agent year and putting him at DH was part of it, though not a big part. Adjusting to being a full-time DH can take time and he might not have been happy thinking you could hurt his future value.
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Post by sparkygian on Dec 25, 2017 1:49:40 GMT -5
I agree.
My point, however, was that the numbers that Boras is proclaiming he's worth, seem to be more in line with what JDM did for three months after he was traded to Arizona. In other words: Boras is giving him superstar status, or else young, big star in the making, instead of being more in line with a 30 year old star, that may perhaps have outdid his career numbers for a few months with Arizona. I never thought of him as a superstar, before he went to Arizona. Obviously JDM can handle the spotlight of hitting cleanup for a playoff bound team, which is what he showed with Arizona, and which is why I'm hoping that he'll sign with the Red Sox this winter. However, I like that DD is being more prudent with negotiating for JDM, and Boras, rather than being the over-anxious, desperate GM I've sensed at times since he's been with the Sox.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 25, 2017 2:29:17 GMT -5
The thing is, JDM had put up three straight stellar offensive seasons PRIOR to '17, he just never really caught on nationally until he went on a bonkers tear with Arizona.
From 2014-2016, he was 13th in WRC+ in all of MLB. If you add in his 2017 campaign, that jumps up to 5th.
He's undoubtedly been one of the top 15 offensive players in baseball over the last four seasons.
Now how far into a new contract would that project? I guess that's the main question. But if he's your primary DH, and a team that is in dire need of one bat, $25/year isn't bad. If you can keep it at 6/150, worst case is you have a couple years where you have an overpaid DH, but on a team with likely $ to spend. Keeping him at 6 years and $25M or less is likely the goal, and likely what I think he'll end up signing with Boston for
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Post by sparkygian on Dec 25, 2017 5:33:48 GMT -5
I feel like 2017 is the only year that JDM has put up numbers that warrant a contract for around $30mil/yr. He was borderline superstar in 2015, but in '14, and '16 his numbers were decent, but definitely not top 15 offensive player.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 25, 2017 10:23:14 GMT -5
I agree. My point, however, was that the numbers that Boras is proclaiming he's worth, seem to be more in line with what JDM did for three months after he was traded to Arizona. In other words: Boras is giving him superstar status, or else young, big star in the making, instead of being more in line with a 30 year old star, that may perhaps have outdid his career numbers for a few months with Arizona. I never thought of him as a superstar, before he went to Arizona. Obviously JDM can handle the spotlight of hitting cleanup for a playoff bound team, which is what he showed with Arizona, and which is why I'm hoping that he'll sign with the Red Sox this winter. However, I like that DD is being more prudent with negotiating for JDM, and Boras, rather than being the over-anxious, desperate GM I've sensed at times since he's been with the Sox. JD Martinez had a 168 OPS+ after being traded to Arizona. JD Martinez had a 163 OPS+ before being traded to Arizona.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 25, 2017 13:10:24 GMT -5
I feel like 2017 is the only year that JDM has put up numbers that warrant a contract for around $30mil/yr. He was borderline superstar in 2015, but in '14, and '16 his numbers were decent, but definitely not top 15 offensive player. From a qualitative standpoint, 2015 was his worst offensive year of the past 4. In wRC+ he has ranked 8th, 16th, 12th and 3rd over the past 4 years among qualified batters (he did not qualify for all years). So he was a top 15 bat by quality in both 2014 and 2016. Over the past 4 years he is tied with Harper and Goldschmidt for 4th in wRC+ in all of baseball (1 point behind Stanton). The problems with Martinez is that he is a bad defender and has had trouble staying healthy. (He played 123, 158, 120 and 119 games respectively over the past 4 years) Boras is hoping someone will pay JDM 30mil/yr for being a full-time OF, but hopefully he has to settle for 24mil/yr as an 80% DH/OF.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 25, 2017 13:31:48 GMT -5
I'm not sure if it had been mentioned, but in 2015 Martinez had an 8.8 arm rating by UZR before dropping to -7.7 in 2017. He fractured the elbow in his throwing arm in 2016 which likely accounts for much of the drop (he had an average arm before 2015). So with an extra year of recovery, maybe his arm rebounds.
Aside for 2016, UZR rated Martinez as having average range defensively and DRS thought he was just slightly below average defensively.
I think having him play the OF a bit wouldn't be that bad (to get Moreland, Ramirez and Martinez all in the same lineup) aside for the injury concerns.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 25, 2017 13:38:50 GMT -5
I'm not sure if it had been mentioned, but in 2015 Martinez had an 8.8 arm rating by UZR before dropping to -7.7 in 2017. He fractured the elbow in his throwing arm in 2016 which likely accounts for much of the drop (he had an average arm before 2015). So with an extra year of recovery, maybe his arm rebounds. Aside for 2016, UZR rated Martinez as having average range defensively and DRS thought he was just slightly below average defensively. I think having him play the OF a bit wouldn't be that bad (to get Moreland, Ramirez and Martinez all in the same lineup) aside for the injury concerns. So long as even two of the other three outfielders are healthy, Martinez isn't going to be playing right field (especially at Fenway), so his arm rating is neither here nor there, fwiw.
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 25, 2017 13:39:34 GMT -5
I agree. My point, however, was that the numbers that Boras is proclaiming he's worth, seem to be more in line with what JDM did for three months after he was traded to Arizona. In other words: Boras is giving him superstar status, or else young, big star in the making, instead of being more in line with a 30 year old star, that may perhaps have outdid his career numbers for a few months with Arizona. I never thought of him as a superstar, before he went to Arizona. Obviously JDM can handle the spotlight of hitting cleanup for a playoff bound team, which is what he showed with Arizona, and which is why I'm hoping that he'll sign with the Red Sox this winter. However, I like that DD is being more prudent with negotiating for JDM, and Boras, rather than being the over-anxious, desperate GM I've sensed at times since he's been with the Sox. JD Martinez had a 168 OPS+ after being traded to Arizona. JD Martinez had a 163 OPS+ before being traded to Arizona. If your look at OPS+ for the last 4 years through 29 yr old... 149 Than look at who they are trying to replace in reality. Ortiz who with boston for first 3 years (29 yr old) ... 149 The most you could hope for is pretty accurate in David's stats (6 years through age 35) 143 Now with the price tag today what is that worth also how will JD hold up? To me (going by comparable ops+) with a 30% mark up over ortiz last year should get him at 25.7 for 6 contract as a dh.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 25, 2017 14:47:55 GMT -5
I'm not sure if it had been mentioned, but in 2015 Martinez had an 8.8 arm rating by UZR before dropping to -7.7 in 2017. He fractured the elbow in his throwing arm in 2016 which likely accounts for much of the drop (he had an average arm before 2015). So with an extra year of recovery, maybe his arm rebounds. Aside for 2016, UZR rated Martinez as having average range defensively and DRS thought he was just slightly below average defensively. I think having him play the OF a bit wouldn't be that bad (to get Moreland, Ramirez and Martinez all in the same lineup) aside for the injury concerns. So long as even two of the other three outfielders are healthy, Martinez isn't going to be playing right field (especially at Fenway), so his arm rating is neither here nor there, fwiw. He was a LFer before being moved to right. Figure he could play occasionally in LF in Fenway against LHP or when Beni/Bradley are hurt. As we know, a good arm in LF at home is very useful.
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Post by sparkygian on Dec 25, 2017 15:03:43 GMT -5
Yeah, I agree; to me, he is seemingly worth 25 - 27 mil/yr, over hopefully just six years. That's a far cry from over 200 mil that Boras is asking for. Again, my main point is that I'm happy that DD isn't just giving in to whatever is demanded by Boras. I've felt in the past that DD tended to overpay when he really wanted to obtain someone, since he's been with the Red Sox.
Wcsoxfan's pointing out that JDM was only healthy enough to play for most of a season one time, in the last four years. That was in 2015. In three of the last four years he's only managed to play in less than 125 games. That is definitely worrisome, especially since he's looking for top dollar in negotiations, when his track record shows he typically only plays 3/4 of a season.
Still, I hope that he ends up with the Red Sox, as mainly their DH. Maybe that will help him stay healthy throughout the course of a season.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 25, 2017 16:32:32 GMT -5
Yeah, I agree; to me, he is seemingly worth 25 - 27 mil/yr, over hopefully just six years. That's a far cry from over 200 mil that Boras is asking for. Again, my main point is that I'm happy that DD isn't just giving in to whatever is demanded by Boras. I've felt in the past that DD tended to overpay when he really wanted to obtain someone, since he's been with the Red Sox. Wcsoxfan's pointing out that JDM was only healthy enough to play for most of a season one time, in the last four years. That was in 2015. In three of the last four years he's only managed to play in less than 125 games. That is definitely worrisome, especially since he's looking for top dollar in negotiations, when his track record shows he typically only plays 3/4 of a season. Still, I hope that he ends up with the Red Sox, as mainly their DH. Maybe that will help him stay healthy throughout the course of a season. "Hopefully just six years" seems odd to say... I hope it is five years. I don't think seven years is a consideration, with six years likely as the max. In my opinion.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 25, 2017 16:34:36 GMT -5
So long as even two of the other three outfielders are healthy, Martinez isn't going to be playing right field (especially at Fenway), so his arm rating is neither here nor there, fwiw. He was a LFer before being moved to right. Figure he could play occasionally in LF in Fenway against LHP or when Beni/Bradley are hurt. As we know, a good arm in LF at home is very useful. LF requires a good arm less than any other position than 1B. The reason you need a good arm in RF as opposed to LF is to make the throw to third base, because there's no equivalent throw for the left fielder. As for making the throw to home, again, because of Fenway's short LF dimensions, a good arm is probably less necessary there than in any other park in baseball. Obviously you'd like a guy in the outfield to have a good arm, but if you're going to try to convince me that Martinez can play the outfield well for the Boston Red Sox, his arm is probably the thing I'm least worried about unless he's noodle-armed or something.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 25, 2017 17:08:43 GMT -5
He was a LFer before being moved to right. Figure he could play occasionally in LF in Fenway against LHP or when Beni/Bradley are hurt. As we know, a good arm in LF at home is very useful. LF requires a good arm less than any other position than 1B. The reason you need a good arm in RF as opposed to LF is to make the throw to third base, because there's no equivalent throw for the left fielder. As for making the throw to home, again, because of Fenway's short LF dimensions, a good arm is probably less necessary there than in any other park in baseball. Obviously you'd like a guy in the outfield to have a good arm, but if you're going to try to convince me that Martinez can play the outfield well for the Boston Red Sox, his arm is probably the thing I'm least worried about unless he's noodle-armed or something. What you say is certainly true but what an asset Yaz was in LF with that arm of his, and it is useful because you will get runners testing out the LF on balls off the wall that they try to stretch into a double. When Yaz was out there, opposing players would often put on the breaks at 1b after hitting the wall. But putting that aside I agree with your post. I think they can survive a few games here and there, especially with JD Martinez in LF at Fenway, but I would prefer not to have him there as a regular LF. Outfield defense in LF on the road counts, too, and that would certainly not play to JD Martinez's strengths.
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Post by gerry on Dec 25, 2017 17:16:25 GMT -5
He was a LFer before being moved to right. Figure he could play occasionally in LF in Fenway against LHP or when Beni/Bradley are hurt. As we know, a good arm in LF at home is very useful. LF requires a good arm less than any other position than 1B. The reason you need a good arm in RF as opposed to LF is to make the throw to third base, because there's no equivalent throw for the left fielder. As for making the throw to home, again, because of Fenway's short LF dimensions, a good arm is probably less necessary there than in any other park in baseball. Obviously you'd like a guy in the outfield to have a good arm, but if you're going to try to convince me that Martinez can play the outfield well for the Boston Red Sox, his arm is probably the thing I'm least worried about unless he's noodle-armed or something. Agree a strong arm in LF isn't a tool of primary importance, but it has importance in, for example, preventing a hitter from legging out a double, or a runner at 2nd or 3rd from tagging up for a close play. Papi played a decent 1B but this became increasingly difficult and potentially harmful as he aged. Regardless, I hope that if JDM comes aboard, he comes as the DH, aware of his 125G health tendencies, dedicated to offensive production, and understanding the defensive downgrade he could be with this incredible outfield. He will be getting paid to hit, with potential to fill in once in awhile as the FIFTH OF. IMO Brentz would be a better 4th OF. Hopefully, the combined power of JDM at DH and Brentz as 4th OF in a given game would be a plus; especially with 1B manned by MM or Hanley. Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, Happy New Year to all here.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 26, 2017 2:29:02 GMT -5
He was a LFer before being moved to right. Figure he could play occasionally in LF in Fenway against LHP or when Beni/Bradley are hurt. As we know, a good arm in LF at home is very useful. LF requires a good arm less than any other position than 1B. The reason you need a good arm in RF as opposed to LF is to make the throw to third base, because there's no equivalent throw for the left fielder. As for making the throw to home, again, because of Fenway's short LF dimensions, a good arm is probably less necessary there than in any other park in baseball. Obviously you'd like a guy in the outfield to have a good arm, but if you're going to try to convince me that Martinez can play the outfield well for the Boston Red Sox, his arm is probably the thing I'm least worried about unless he's noodle-armed or something. Last year JDM was noodle armed, which is why he was such a poor defender. (His range and error rates were average, as they have generally been throughout his career aside for 2016) Due to the short left field wall there are far more opportunities for the LFer to make players with their arm than in a typical park. Raw arm strength may not be as important as in the spacious RF where the fielder can be a long way from 3B to make that throw. But as LFers from the Red Sox typically pickup more outfield assists than the RFers (102-91 over the past ten years) and given the small size of LF at Fenway, the LFers arm is more important, and range less important, than on most teams. But the point I was making is that aside from a single year of poor range and a single (different) year of a poor arm, JDM had been just fine defensively and shouldn't be a liability if he plays some LF next year. My hope of course is still that he gets signed by the Red Sox to be primarily a DH as it should keep him healthy and allow for their best team to be on the field.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 26, 2017 9:03:58 GMT -5
Not sure if this goes here but this is the roster building thread so I figured why not.
Who is the biggest question mark for the Sox in this coming year? For me it is David Price and it isn't close. Yes there are many many players who need to rebound from an off year but none of them are 30mil. guys with as much potential or expectations. That is what comes with a contract like that. So it hasn't been discussed much and I wanted to hear your thoughts on the Sox highest paid player who has so many question marks. I mean he is supposed to be competing for a Cy Young right?
How concerned should we be that the Sox will be saddled with a terrible contract for a guy who may never come close to living up to it based on his elbow?
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