SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
World Series Gameday Thread
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 30, 2017 8:20:26 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks you can win a WS or even get there without hitting home runs, just watch this series. Sox got theirs by hitting HR's. Remember Ortiz winning all those games. Even J.D. Drew hit a granny to beat Cleveland in a play off game. The point is, if they can't find a couple of HR hitters this off season, they're not going anywhere next year. The Royals hit the second fewest home runs in the AL in 2015, and won the World Series. They're playing this series with juiced baseballs that have no scuff. The Red Sox roster is specifically hurt by such conditions (which nobody knew were going to be in place), as they don't have a lot of fly ball hitters and their pitching staff relies more on movement than velocity. And they still managed to win 93 games while scoring the sixth-most runs in the AL. It's okay to be disappointed by the 2017 season, but this fresh notion that their was poor roster construction and that home runs wins championships is just nuts to me. Agree with the comment in general but looking forward we have to wonder how far MLB will take this pinball/baseball concept. No denying it's made for a great World Series.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 30, 2017 8:38:02 GMT -5
The one separator in my mind between the two teams were that the Dodgers had Kenley Jansen, he of the triple digitK/single digit BB ratio, was going to lock down leads that the Astros couldn't.
That apparently is out the window. Jansen has given up homers in his first two games, the first one which cost them a victory, and then last night hits a batter and walks a batter before giving up the game winning hit. When Jansen is anywhere near right, that simply doesn't happen.
So this means that neither team has anybody they can rely on to hold a lead. Hence what we're seeing.
So either the players are juiced or the ball is juiced. I think in this case it's the latter. If they're taking sliders away from pitchers, then this would be the expected result.
I'm enjoying the games, but the uniqueness of 13-12 games will wear off if different baseballs keep getting used. I know they wanted to perk up scoring but I suspect baseball went overboard again, using different baseballs.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 30, 2017 9:06:39 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks you can win a WS or even get there without hitting home runs, just watch this series. Sox got theirs by hitting HR's. Remember Ortiz winning all those games. Even J.D. Drew hit a granny to beat Cleveland in a play off game. The point is, if they can't find a couple of HR hitters this off season, they're not going anywhere next year. The Royals hit the second fewest home runs in the AL in 2015, and won the World Series. They're playing this series with juiced baseballs that have no scuff. The Red Sox roster is specifically hurt by such conditions (which nobody knew were going to be in place), as they don't have a lot of fly ball hitters and their pitching staff relies more on movement than velocity. And they still managed to win 93 games while scoring the sixth-most runs in the AL. It's okay to be disappointed by the 2017 season, but this fresh notion of their poor roster construction and that home runs wins championships is just nuts to me. What MLB has done this year with the baseball is a travesty for the sport. I don't care how exciting it is. Changing the ball is the same thing as changing the rules. A team cannot predict what the league is going to do when building their team and they have no time at all to adjust when changing the ball right before the playoffs start.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Oct 30, 2017 10:17:56 GMT -5
This has been an exciting post-season, but it's sad to see so many pitchers with nothing left in the tank. I think relievers are getting a bit overused lately and this WS shows it. Nobody has anything.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Oct 30, 2017 10:22:19 GMT -5
This has been an exciting post-season, but it's sad to see so many pitchers with nothing left in the tank. I think relievers are getting a bit overused lately and this WS shows it. Nobody has anything. Giles is gassed and Roberts finally chewed up Morrow, but a big part of it is the absurd HR/FB rate making pitchers look bad. The Puig homer, like the Frazier one in Yankee Stadium, just came on a good pitch by Devenski and a swing that has no business leading to a home run.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 30, 2017 10:44:59 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks you can win a WS or even get there without hitting home runs, just watch this series. Sox got theirs by hitting HR's. Remember Ortiz winning all those games. Even J.D. Drew hit a granny to beat Cleveland in a play off game. The point is, if they can't find a couple of HR hitters this off season, they're not going anywhere next year. The Royals hit the second fewest home runs in the AL in 2015, and won the World Series. They're playing this series with juiced baseballs that have no scuff. The Red Sox roster is specifically hurt by such conditions (which nobody knew were going to be in place), as they don't have a lot of fly ball hitters and their pitching staff relies more on movement than velocity. And they still managed to win 93 games while scoring the sixth-most runs in the AL. It's okay to be disappointed by the 2017 season, but this fresh notion of their poor roster construction and that home runs wins championships is just nuts to me. Agreed that it's not like you hit home runs that makes you champions, but in 2017 you have to hit home runs or you can't win. The Royals could succeed in 2015 because just two short years ago the conditions were different. And as others have pointed out, it is hard to construct a team not knowing what the conditions will be. Will the ball continue to be slicked up next season? The Sox could go out and get a bunch of power hitters and suddenly the ball is back to 2015 levels and you have to have other skills to win other than being great at the three true outcomes game. I do think the Sox need a power hitter to balance themselves more, but it's true that nobody knows which way things will go. Manfred wanted offense to increase and what a coincidence, as soon as he says it...offense goes crazy again. Perhaps now they'll think it's too cheap. Next thing we know they'll increase the strike zone, raise the mound, dump the DH (yeah, right) and we'll be in 1968 again. It's funny how when baseball wants to perk up offense they overshoot it and when they want to tamp it down, they go too far the other way. I actually thought the balance was pretty good post-steroids era until they decided to juice the ball up more than they did in 1987. And what will happen is that teams will build their teams towards homeruns because that becomes the new "In" thing. Before Houston this year, it was bullpen closers stacked from the 7th to 9th innings because that's how the Royals did it. So power is the new fad. We'll see how the powers-that-be respond to the softball scores of baseball. Like I said, I've been fascinated by this, but it wouldn't take too long for this to get really old watching games take 5 hours to play and feeling like it really is nothing more than homerun derby softball. That cheapens the excitement a lot. Hopefully they find the right balance and leave it alone.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Oct 30, 2017 10:57:53 GMT -5
Giles is gassed and Roberts finally chewed up Morrow, but a big part of it is the absurd HR/FB rate making pitchers look bad. The Puig homer, like the Frazier one in Yankee Stadium, just came on a good pitch by Devenski and a swing that has no business leading to a home run. Agreed on the Puig homer, but Devenski threw plenty of awful pitches around that one. Even Jansen looked pedestrian last night. It's tough on the pitchers when everything in the air gets out of the stadium, it's tougher when they leave a lot of waist high gimmes.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 30, 2017 11:04:29 GMT -5
The top-end power hitters do not appear to be the ones who have benefited the most from the home run surge. Outside of Stanton and Judge (who look like historically great power hitters), there hasn't been much in the way of eye-popping home run totals from individual players this year. The number of 40+ home run hitters has actually declined from nine in 2015 to five in 2017.
Instead, it looks like players who were previously in the 40 to 60 grade power range are the ones who are the real beneficiaries. Guys who previously hit home runs in the teen range are now hitting 30+. The number of 30+ home run hitters and 20+ home run hitters has roughly doubled since 2015 (30+: from 20 in 2015 to 41 in 2017; 20+: from 64 in 2015 to 117 in 2017). Guys who were previously hitting a lot of warning track balls are now seeing more of those balls go over the fence, and it's that type of player who has disproportionately benefited.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 30, 2017 11:06:53 GMT -5
The top-end power hitters do not appear to be the ones who have benefited the most from the home run surge. Outside of Stanton and Judge (who look like historically great power hitters), there hasn't been much in the way of eye-popping home run totals from individual players this year. The number of 40+ home run hitters has actually declined from nine in 2015 to five in 2017. Instead, it looks like players who were previously in the 40 to 60 grade power range are the ones who are the real beneficiaries. Guys who previously hit home runs in the teen range are now hitting 30+. The number of 30+ home run hitters and 20+ home run hitters has roughly doubled since 2015 (30+: from 20 in 2015 to 41 in 2017; 20+: from 64 in 2015 to 117 in 2017). Guys who were previously hitting a lot of warning track balls are now seeing more of those balls go over the fence, and it's that type of player who has disproportionately benefited. Why wouldn't a guy who can hit a 490 foot HR also hit a lot of warning track fly balls that barely become HR? In fact, I think over the long run, they'd benefit even more.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 30, 2017 11:42:57 GMT -5
The top-end power hitters do not appear to be the ones who have benefited the most from the home run surge. Outside of Stanton and Judge (who look like historically great power hitters), there hasn't been much in the way of eye-popping home run totals from individual players this year. The number of 40+ home run hitters has actually declined from nine in 2015 to five in 2017. Instead, it looks like players who were previously in the 40 to 60 grade power range are the ones who are the real beneficiaries. Guys who previously hit home runs in the teen range are now hitting 30+. The number of 30+ home run hitters and 20+ home run hitters has roughly doubled since 2015 (30+: from 20 in 2015 to 41 in 2017; 20+: from 64 in 2015 to 117 in 2017). Guys who were previously hitting a lot of warning track balls are now seeing more of those balls go over the fence, and it's that type of player who has disproportionately benefited. Why wouldn't a guy who can hit a 490 foot HR also hit a lot of warning track fly balls that barely become HR? In fact, I think over the long run, they'd benefit even more. If the new run environment makes every batted ball go a few feet further, the players who benefit the most are the players who previously hit the most batted balls right on the edge between HR and non-HR. Because players' batted ball distances are generally roughly normally distributed, the elite sluggers hit fewer of those batted balls than hitters who were 40 to 60 grade power guys. See the below links. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/home-runs-and-the-middle-class/www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-other-weird-thing-about-the-home-run-surge/
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 30, 2017 16:21:46 GMT -5
Why wouldn't a guy who can hit a 490 foot HR also hit a lot of warning track fly balls that barely become HR? In fact, I think over the long run, they'd benefit even more. If the new run environment makes every batted ball go a few feet further, the players who benefit the most are the players who previously hit the most batted balls right on the edge between HR and non-HR. Because players' batted ball distances are generally roughly normally distributed, the elite sluggers hit fewer of those batted balls than hitters who were 40 to 60 grade power guys. See the below links. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/home-runs-and-the-middle-class/www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-other-weird-thing-about-the-home-run-surge/ Stanton hit 15 "Just Enough" HR this year, 2nd in the majors behind Jay Bruce with 18. ESPN HR TrackerI'd have to imagine that most of these JE HR wouldn't be HR in other seasons. Edit- that link takes you to the playoff list. To get to the regular season list, you have to go to the main page: www.hittrackeronline.com/index.phpChange the season from 2017P to 2017 and then click on the Just Enough full listing. Also, it's pretty insane that there are already 43 "Just Enough" home runs in the playoffs this year. In the last three playoff seasons, there were 24 in 2015, 31 in 2016 and 43 this year. I will give you that Altuve is definitely a recipient of fortunate luck in the postseason. 5 of his 7 HR are "just enough". I just think that in a large enough sample, the best power hitters would benefit most from a juiced ball because those pop flies that are just missed could still go out. The best power hitters usually hit the most fly balls.
|
|
|
Post by daltonjones on Oct 30, 2017 16:50:28 GMT -5
It has been an exciting and dramatic. I am sure the casual fans are pumped. But I really don't like stealth rule changes at all: juiced ball all year, juiced and slick ball for WS. How can you build a team if you don't know what the rules are going to be.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Oct 31, 2017 20:45:00 GMT -5
Don't like walking Springer, I dislike taking Hill out of the game even more.
|
|
cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,321
|
Post by cutz on Oct 31, 2017 21:55:59 GMT -5
How come Hinch didn't pinch run for Gattis, when he was on first? Fischer probably makes it to 2nd on that hit by Springer.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 31, 2017 22:02:53 GMT -5
Yet another cheap ass pop fly home run by Pederson.
|
|
|
Post by p23w on Oct 31, 2017 22:59:06 GMT -5
Me like game 7's.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 31, 2017 23:09:40 GMT -5
It's been a wonderful World Series and I love Game 7s (when the Sox aren't involved - if they are I want the Sox to sweep).
I think if Houston was going to win they would have done it tonight. I think the Dodgers will take Game 7.
I think the Astros really missed their chance in the 5th inning when they were up 1-0 with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs. Josh Reddick needed to get a hit or at least drive a run in. When he struck out, it changed the momentum as Verlander didn't have a chance.
It'll be interesting to see the managerial pitching strategies tomorrow. What if Houston is up a run going into the 9th. Who gets the ball?
I would think Houston wants no part of any of their bullpen guys, that they'd go with McCullers, Keuchel, Peacock, and Morton as their pitchers they'd use.
I would think LA has just about everybody available and Jansen looked like Jansen tonight and he wasn't taxed at all. He's good for 3 innings if need be. I would think Kershaw will part of tomorrow's game as well, and Watson and Wood be pitchers that Roberts would feel comfortable turning to.
I really look forward to watching the game.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 1, 2017 3:55:28 GMT -5
Yeah, look at for Kershaw coming out of the bullpen in this game 7.
That's the biggest storyline for me heading into tomorrow. When is Dave Roberts going to deploy Kershaw and will Kershaw finally get the job done and win the Dodgers a world series?
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 1, 2017 5:04:59 GMT -5
Yeah, look at for Kershaw coming out of the bullpen in this game 7. That's the biggest storyline for me heading into tomorrow. When is Dave Roberts going to deploy Kershaw and will Kershaw finally get the job done and win the Dodgers a world series? I don't think that Roberts would be in any rush to get Kershaw into the game. At this point you have to consider him to be a liability as a playoff pitcher. I also don't think that he can change that narrative by doing well tonight, if he comes in. The numbers don't lie. He should have better playoff performances
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 1, 2017 5:15:21 GMT -5
Yeah, look at for Kershaw coming out of the bullpen in this game 7. That's the biggest storyline for me heading into tomorrow. When is Dave Roberts going to deploy Kershaw and will Kershaw finally get the job done and win the Dodgers a world series? I don't think that Roberts would be in any rush to get Kershaw into the game. At this point you have to consider him to be a liability as a playoff pitcher. I also don't think that he can change that narrative by doing well tonight, if he comes in. The numbers don't lie. He should have better playoff performances Yeah his playoff history is really more bad then good, but I'm counting on him and riding on him in this game if I'm Roberts. He's the best they got besides Jansen, and he is actually one of the few that has thrown a good game with the weird baseball that they are playing with in the world series. You live and die with the best you have on the mound, unless the situation calls for him to be taken out or pulled.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Nov 1, 2017 7:26:27 GMT -5
The biggest thing I dislike about National League baseball is having to decide whether to pull your hitter based on where your lineup happens to fall. I *probably* pull Verlander there after six, but I don't understand why that decision being forced makes the game better for fans or anyone involved. Sure, there's more strategy, but more strategy doesn't necessarily equal a better or more enjoyable sporting event.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 1, 2017 8:17:21 GMT -5
Yeah, look at for Kershaw coming out of the bullpen in this game 7. That's the biggest storyline for me heading into tomorrow. When is Dave Roberts going to deploy Kershaw and will Kershaw finally get the job done and win the Dodgers a world series? I don't think that Roberts would be in any rush to get Kershaw into the game. At this point you have to consider him to be a liability as a playoff pitcher. I also don't think that he can change that narrative by doing well tonight, if he comes in. The numbers don't lie. He should have better playoff performances The numbers may not lie but images can and if Kershaw comes in and shoots down the Astros for 3 dominating innings and the Dodgers win that will be the image that is remembered, not the stats.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 1, 2017 9:00:20 GMT -5
I've been a baseball fan since 1980 and since then I've seen 11 World Series go to a decisive seventh game.
I'm going from memory here, but I think I'm pretty accurate. On the first nine occasions since my 1980 fandom the home team won Game 7. Eight of those 9 occasions the home team actually came home trailing 3 games to 2 before winning Game 6 and 7. A lot of those Game 7 victories followed games in which the road team lost a devastating Game 6.
I wouldn't call yesterday's defeat for the Astros devastating but it certainly was disappointing given that they whiffed on their chances in the 5th, 6th, and 7th innings to extend their lead/come back.
The road team has actually won the last two Game 7s, each by 1 run.
1982: Cardinals win Game 6 and 7 at St. Louis over the Brewers, who lose chance to win their only World Series to date 1985: Royals pound St. Louis in Game 7 at KC after Cardinals are devastated by Game 6 loss (blown 9th inning lead - umpire call) 1986: Mets beat Red Sox at NY in Game 7 after devastating Game 6 loss. Anything more need to be said? 1987: Twins beat Cardinals at Minnesota in both Game 6 & 7. The Twins were mediocre but really exploited the home field advantage 1991: Twins beat Braves in classic Games 6 & 7 at Minnesota. Again the Twins used the home field advantage 1997: Marlins beat Cleveland in Miami in thrilling Game 7 comeback win at Miami. In this case Florida actually lost Game 6 at home 2001: Diamondbacks beat Yankees in Arizona in thrilling Game 7 comeback win after pounding NY in Game 6 2002: Angels beat Giants in Game 7 at Anaheim after handing SF devastating loss in Game 6 in which they overturned a 5-0 7th inning deficit 2011: Cardinals beat Rangers in Game 7 at St. Louis after handing Texas devastating loss in Game 6 - loss which rivals 86 Sox 2014: Giants beat Royals in Game 7 at KC 3-2. First road team since 79 Pirates to win Game 7 on the road. KC had won Game 6 2016: Cubs beat Indians in Game 7 classic 8-7 in Cleveland. Like 79 Pirates came from 3-1 down to win Game 6 & 7 on the road
So obviously history really, really favors the home team during Game 7 and often it's on the heels of the momentum of a Game 6 victory.
Very recent history shows that the Astros at least have a chance, but if they win it would be a close game, and while I know who would close out a Dodgers victory, I have no idea who the Astros would turn to to protect a 4-3 9th inning lead.
Really excited about tonight's game to see what history has in store for us! I think it will be a Dodger victory and Pederson will be holding the MVP trophy.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 1, 2017 9:55:33 GMT -5
redsox040713champs, I am continually amazed by your memory.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,678
|
Post by gerry on Nov 1, 2017 10:13:50 GMT -5
redsox040713champs, I am continually amazed by your memory. Agree. That was an awesome recitation. My first WS was the '46 version as a kid too young to remember much about it. Or so I told myself until reading your vivid memories. Now I realize that, without an illustrated cheat sheet, I couldn't even replicate what you just did about my favorite memories of '67, '04, '07, '13, or even this '17 ALDS. I am humbled by your memory, sir.
|
|
|