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2018-19 International Signing Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2018 11:48:42 GMT -5
Do the rankings of these kids directly affect their signing bonuses or is it just an agreement that is made between the team and the player without any regard to those lists? I ask, because it could be a way to guess how much everyone is getting that we don't know about yet.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 5, 2018 12:08:50 GMT -5
Do the rankings of these kids directly affect their signing bonuses or is it just an agreement that is made between the team and the player without any regard to those lists? I ask, because it could be a way to guess how much everyone is getting that we don't know about yet. Only a tiny portion of the overall international pool gets ranked. So that said, aside from ~50 guys, the lists are a moot point in determining the bonus figures. Even for those 50 or so guys, their rankings don't seem to have a 1-to-1 mapping with their bonuses.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2018 12:17:21 GMT -5
Do the rankings of these kids directly affect their signing bonuses or is it just an agreement that is made between the team and the player without any regard to those lists? I ask, because it could be a way to guess how much everyone is getting that we don't know about yet. Only a tiny portion of the overall international pool gets ranked. So that said, aside from ~50 guys, the lists are a moot point in determining the bonus figures. Even for those 50 or so guys, their rankings don't seem to have a 1-to-1 mapping with their bonuses. But is it common for unranked kids to get $300-$500K?
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Post by ramireja on Jul 5, 2018 12:26:12 GMT -5
Only a tiny portion of the overall international pool gets ranked. So that said, aside from ~50 guys, the lists are a moot point in determining the bonus figures. Even for those 50 or so guys, their rankings don't seem to have a 1-to-1 mapping with their bonuses. But is it common for unranked kids to get $300-$500K? Yes. The Padres just gave out 16 300K bonuses to unranked guys. In fact, the international tracker found here is keeping track of the bonuses for the Top 30 in addition to other >$300K bonuses. If you scroll down to where bonuses are listed by team, you can see there are quite a few of these bonuses and none of these guys made the MLB Top 30 list.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2018 13:00:07 GMT -5
But is it common for unranked kids to get $300-$500K? Yes. The Padres just gave out 16 300K bonuses to unranked guys. In fact, the international tracker found here is keeping track of the bonuses for the Top 30 in addition to other >$300K bonuses. If you scroll down to where bonuses are listed by team, you can see there are quite a few of these bonuses and none of these guys made the MLB Top 30 list. You need to look at both that one and BA's though to get the most complete info (which is kind of crazy to me) www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2018-mlb-international-signings-tracker/
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Post by telson13 on Jul 5, 2018 13:01:29 GMT -5
Well, I see 8 players with no listed bonuses from VZ, and $2.5M in space. Obviously, if those bonuses are mostly $75-150K, then you’re right. I get the sense that (since the lowest bonus listed is $180K) that’s not the case. But it could be, particularly given their strong VZ presence and maybe having feelers out on players who are more under-the-radar given geopolitical issues. I’m genuinely curious...where do you think those players slot? And what do you think they plan to do with those $? Trade for more and sign big (VVM?) Or continue a value approach? I don't want to speak for Chris, but my take is: Its impossible to tell at this point. I mean, there's virtually no available information on these new signees (VTsox would be all over it if there was). There's just no way to tell if they are 500K signees or 20K signees. If you forced me to guess, I'd say that the most recently added names are not of the 300K-500K variety as I'd guess these bonuses would be the first to leak to the likes of Jesse Sanchez and Ben Badler. I believe we were linked to Claudio Ochoa ahead of July 2, so perhaps he could have a midrange bonus? These are really just uninformed guesses though. We'll just have to wait and see. Without knowing how much space its left, we are then left guessing about their strategy this year and whether or not Mesa may be in play. Thanks for opining...I like hearing thoughts and counterpoints from people I consider knowledgeable. It’s true that I’m extrapolating based on a pattern-recognition approach, which is potentially inaccurate. Obviously it’s all speculation; I think I’m just curious if anyone has an idea of what’s going on internally and if this is a genuine shift in philosophy towards the (extreme but I think fundamentally sound if logistically impractical) Kiley McDaniel “low bonus IFA? sign ‘em all” approach to a perceived market inefficiency.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 5, 2018 13:39:19 GMT -5
Just thinking out loud about this for a second. So, in the rule 4, basically the success rate plummets rapidly (essentially exponentially) as the picks pass beyond the top two tiers. Even within the first round, the liklihood of busting shoots up dramatically as one goes from the top picks to even just the 20s. Because the drop-off is so rapid, the success rate continues to fall, but the difference between late first round to say, late second round or early 3rd, is not nearly as pronounced as that in the first round alone. And beyond that, it’s basically just a crapshoot, but the numbers (ie chances to pick) are fixed. And it’s not purely on talent, since signability and bonus slotting (and manipulation) have a big role. I don’t think I’m adding anything earth-shattering there...it’s all pretty much established and broadly known. But I point it out to contrast this:
With the IFA market as it is, being functionally hard-capped, I would expect it to at least *kind of* work like the draft. So you’d sorta expect that after the few top big names, the success rates would drop pretty quickly. There are no rounds, so the bonuses are a lot more fluid and the one year lead-up has a LOT to do with projected bonuses because of the agreements players make before the signing period opens. So bonus amount and talent seem to be a LOT more variable (far less correlated) than in the rule 4. And given the differences in leagues, geography, etc., I’d think the opportunity to find unknowns is far greater. To top it off, these kids are smack in the midst of probably the most important part of their mental (at least in terms of executive functioning) AND physical development (tail of growth spurt but usually the point where body composition/mass is determined as opposed to height). I would think that all of that would make it even LESS likely that bonus/talent would correlate to future success.
So, I guess I’m convincing myself even more that big bonus players in IFA are very inefficient risks. Lower-bonus volume seems even more of an ideal approach. Idk what sort of talent equivalent exists between the two signing systems (like, is an IFA signing for $1.15M the talent equivalent to a late 1st rounder/supplemental rd1? Ít a $500k roughly a 3rd round talent?). It certainly seems that “talent” (and projection) at 16 is much more fluid than 18. BUT, when you have a player like VV Mesa, who’s 21, he’s probably a FAR better option to spend a big bonus on, because he’s that much more likely to be predictable. I *sincerely* hope that’s the approach they’re taking this year: large volume of 16-y/o (with really only one big bonus) and one truly big bonus baby who’s got substantially less developmental downside risk (and is that much closer to contributing at the MLB level). I think Mesa would be a fantastic way to cap this class.
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Post by jbuttah on Jul 5, 2018 14:12:01 GMT -5
The Padres curiously signed 15 players for $300k each (note this is the max they could sign any one player given they had exceeded their signing cap in the last two years). Given that AJ Preller is still their GM I would hope MLB looks into those signings given his history (e.g. Pooling bonus similar to what the Red Sox were accused of in prior years to circumvent cap). Also curious why MLB is publishing bonuses given to Venezuelan prospects given their families request not to do so as it increases the risk of kidnapping relatives. Padres Euribel Angeles, SS, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Neifi Antunez,SS, Venezuela -- $300,000 Charlie Aquino, SS, Dominican Republic --$300,000 Nerwilliam Cedeno, SS, Venezuela -- $300,000 Justin Diaz, SS, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Reginald Dowston, OF, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Albert Fabian, OF, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Eduardo Hidalgo, OF, Venezuela -- $300,000 Wilmert Paula, SS, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Axcel Peralta, 1B, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Alex Ramirez, C, Venezuela -- $300,000 Emanuel Rodriguez, SS, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Edwin Rojas, OF, Venezuela -- $300,000 Wilfredo Tovar, C, Venezuela -- $300,000 Jose Velez, OF, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 www.mlb.com/news/july-2-international-prospects-signing-tracker/c-283495622I'd be interested in knowing how many of these players share the same trainer, academy, schools, etc. Could be a way of opening doors (relationships) for the future.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2018 14:18:08 GMT -5
I think you're completely overthinking it. It's a free market whereas the draft isn't (draftees' leverage comes from being able to refuse to sign and instead signing with mystery club X in one or three years), and 16-year-olds are extremely volatile, nevermind the 14- and 15-year-olds teams are actually agreeing to terms with.
On Victor Victor Mesa, again, the reports are that it isn't even known when he's going to have a workout for clubs. It would be folly to plan on signing him. Maybe you keep a bit of your cap space in reserve (the Red Sox still can trade for a bunch more), but no team should be planning its strategy around signing him.
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Post by bcsox on Jul 5, 2018 15:54:33 GMT -5
I am sure people have done it before but it would be great to see an an analysis of how the Red sox financially plan with spending on the Rule 4 draft vs the international draft. One thing I was looking to see is where they drafted so few starting pitchers in the Rule 4 draft, I wondered if they overloaded with arms in the international draft whether it would have been a shift in philosophy. Doesn't appear that way as only 1/3 of the international signings to date are pitchers.
another thing I wondered about is I always assumed it was so much more difficult to scout and project the international kids because so many of them likely have not had access to what the american kids have had, such as organized leagues,tournaments, multiple showcases, top end training facilities, weight lifting, nutrition, unlimited supplies, and so forth and so on. However I also had the thought, who have the Red sox scouted more, the $300,000.00 shortstop or the 33rd round pitcher/CF, from somewhere like Dallas Baptist. My guess is that the the Sox Latin America scout has probably had a 2-3 year relationship and seen the $300,000 Dominican shortstop 50-100 times before signing him, where the Dallas Baptist player may have had 5-10 limited views. I could be way off on my scouting views here, but just something that I thought of recently.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 5, 2018 19:30:31 GMT -5
I am sure people have done it before but it would be great to see an an analysis of how the Red sox financially plan with spending on the Rule 4 draft vs the international draft. One thing I was looking to see is where they drafted so few starting pitchers in the Rule 4 draft, I wondered if they overloaded with arms in the international draft whether it would have been a shift in philosophy. Doesn't appear that way as only 1/3 of the international signings to date are pitchers. another thing I wondered about is I always assumed it was so much more difficult to scout and project the international kids because so many of them likely have not had access to what the american kids have had, such as organized leagues,tournaments, multiple showcases, top end training facilities, weight lifting, nutrition, unlimited supplies, and so forth and so on. However I also had the thought, who have the Red sox scouted more, the $300,000.00 shortstop or the 33rd round pitcher/CF, from somewhere like Dallas Baptist. My guess is that the the Sox Latin America scout has probably had a 2-3 year relationship and seen the $300,000 Dominican shortstop 50-100 times before signing him, where the Dallas Baptist player may have had 5-10 limited views. I could be way off on my scouting views here, but just something that I thought of recently. I think it's all over the map, really, probably a function of the individual scouts and how they work, and the opportunities they have. Xander Bogaerts is instructive here. There was a bit of luck involved in even seeing the guy, and once the scout - Mike Lord - did get a chance to take a look he was sold almost instantly. As you say, there are lots of opportunities in the international arena to do a lot of cross-checking but sometimes it just happens in a flash.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jul 6, 2018 0:14:13 GMT -5
Sox signed RHP Richardson Jimenez and SS Yulis Hernandez, both 18 year old from the D.R.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2018 9:53:39 GMT -5
I am sure people have done it before but it would be great to see an an analysis of how the Red sox financially plan with spending on the Rule 4 draft vs the international draft. One thing I was looking to see is where they drafted so few starting pitchers in the Rule 4 draft, I wondered if they overloaded with arms in the international draft whether it would have been a shift in philosophy. Doesn't appear that way as only 1/3 of the international signings to date are pitchers. We got a similar question on the latest episode of the podcast. The fact is that in the international market you're mostly signing 16-year-olds, so there'd be a two-year pause before those guys line up with a theoretical draft class. I think there may be something to the fact that the Lowell and GCL rotations are populated mostly with IFAs, but I also don't think they would have shied away from drafting a starter they really liked. If anything, maybe they declined to draft, say, a college senior in the 23rd round to start for Lowell this year because they had IFAs they liked. But they're not going to pass on this year's Scherff or something because they have Alexander Montero, y'know?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 6, 2018 10:56:01 GMT -5
Sox signed RHP Richardson Jimenez and SS Yulis Hernandez, both 18 year old from the D.R. And it appears Yulis has already been released.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 6, 2018 13:39:26 GMT -5
I think you're completely overthinking it. It's a free market whereas the draft isn't (draftees' leverage comes from being able to refuse to sign and instead signing with mystery club X in one or three years), and 16-year-olds are extremely volatile, nevermind the 14- and 15-year-olds teams are actually agreeing to terms with. On Victor Victor Mesa, again, the reports are that it isn't even known when he's going to have a workout for clubs. It would be folly to plan on signing him. Maybe you keep a bit of your cap space in reserve (the Red Sox still can trade for a bunch more), but no team should be planning its strategy around signing him. I probably am overthinking it. I guess the short of it is that it seems a lot less of a problem in the IFA period to NOT get the “big” names, for the reasons mentioned. Bonuses and talent (and future success) seem a lot less yoked with IFA. And yes, I’m not suggesting that they *plan* on signing him. Obviously that would be folly. Rather, that they explore the contingency of trading another player to move up towards their max allotment, *if* they expect to use those $ otherwise. He could very well wait for next July when the bonuses reset and he might get twice as much (although it could very well be a long-term loss with a year delay in MLB time). But they’re obviously going to need more room to make a run, if they want to. Trading another player to do so becomes a sunk cost if they don’t have alternative targets. It’s probably not a significant loss regardless. In any case, so far I’m pretty pleased with their approach this year, at least as far as I can guess at that approach.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 6, 2018 13:42:27 GMT -5
Sox signed RHP Richardson Jimenez and SS Yulis Hernandez, both 18 year old from the D.R. And it appears Yulis has already been released. Whoa...gotta be an interesting (and probably unfortunate) story behind that one.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2018 13:51:59 GMT -5
And it appears Yulis has already been released. Whoa...gotta be an interesting (and probably unfortunate) story behind that one. It's entirely possible that this is an administrative issue - maybe he got added prematurely or something - or that it's straight-up a mistake.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 7, 2018 11:06:12 GMT -5
Sox signed RHP Richardson Jimenez and SS Yulis Hernandez, both 18 year old from the D.R. And it appears Yulis has already been released. FYI, that transaction was an error. Hernandez is playing today.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 8, 2018 22:08:48 GMT -5
And it appears Yulis has already been released. FYI, that transaction was an error. Hernandez is playing today. Some context: after going through the DSL rosters, both teams have a number of guys who are injured or otherwise not playing although "active" on the roster, as now reflected on our Team Rosters page. Both could probably use some reinforcements on the hitter side. Also, I kind of hate that our Lineups page will be useless in determining if Luis or Yulis Hernandez has started at short for DSL 2...
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 9, 2018 13:04:40 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 11, 2018 16:55:43 GMT -5
Not Sox-related (or even for this signing period), but though this question and answer was interesting: Shows you just how far in advance these players get locked up by teams. I believe Puason was the player the Braves were trying to get in a package deal, which was one of the various infractions that led to MLB cracking down on them. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-7-11-18/
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,286
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Post by radiohix on Jul 13, 2018 15:08:21 GMT -5
I like that!
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Post by ramireja on Jul 13, 2018 16:16:25 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2018 17:47:28 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 25, 2018 12:50:33 GMT -5
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