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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2017 14:47:28 GMT -5
Stanton's steep decline will most likely happen well into his contract, or at least likely beyond his 2020 season. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see him opt out and look for bigger $, especially once the market gets reset. So I do think you a strong HOF performance over the next 3 years barring impactful injuries, which is a caveat for all players. I think the WAR projections beyond those three years could be absolutely meaningless if he opts out for the team that has him now. You seem to keep overlooking the fact he gets injured more often than an average player. You just expect 3 great years in a row, when he has never come close to doing that.  He doesn't have to be ironman Cal Ripken to be somebody capable of getting a bigger contract after the 2020 season. And I'm not convinced, with the DH in his backpocket, that he's going to be more injury prone than the average player. I'm not convinced he's more injury prone than the average player right now. I wouldn't count on it. The fact that he can play in 159 games tells me he's quite capable of giving his team games. He'll miss games, just like everybody else will, but I don't think it's going to be an abnormal amount.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 12, 2017 15:56:34 GMT -5
You seem to keep overlooking the fact he gets injured more often than an average player. You just expect 3 great years in a row, when he has never come close to doing that. He doesn't have to be ironman Cal Ripken to be somebody capable of getting a bigger contract after the 2020 season. And I'm not convinced, with the DH in his backpocket, that he's going to be more injury prone than the average player. I'm not convinced he's more injury prone than the average player right now. I wouldn't count on it. The fact that he can play in 159 games tells me he's quite capable of giving his team games. He'll miss games, just like everybody else will, but I don't think it's going to be an abnormal amount. I would agree only if he became a full time DH. Like with Martinez, I think that can make a world of difference. If he plays the OF, gets injured, how many games is he healthy enough to DH, but not play the field? It could certainly help, but I don't see how it makes him a normal health risk. Unless the plan is to DH him a lot through the season to try and help prevent injury. That is going to hurt his war though, as a lot of his value is his good D. He doesn't have to be an Ironman, but he has to awful good to opt out of that contract. He will have to have by far and away the best 3 year stretch of his career. He will have 220 million over 7 years left, going into his age 31 season, with another option year. He doesn't get more than that by having only one monster season over the next 3 years.
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Post by Coreno on Dec 12, 2017 16:08:36 GMT -5
Over the last 3 seasons, Stanton has 0.2 more fWAR than Bogaerts. And over the last 4 seasons, Stanton has almost double Bogaerts bWAR, 20.3 to 10.8. A span where Xander played in over 100 more games than Stanton, mostly due to Stanton being limited to 74 games in 2015 with a broken hand. Now, I don't think this move makes the Yankees a lock for the world series like some people are acting, but lets not try and skew the numbers like he's just some guy. I think a lot of people are looking at the power in the middle of that lineup and overlooking some things while they are busy picking their jaws off the ground. It's worth noting that it looks like Gregorious will be the only returning full-time starter in that infield. Earlier today, ESPN had a draft of their lineup that I was noticing looked pretty weak at the bottom with Headley and Torreyes penciled in at 8 and 9. Obviously, Headley will no longer be part of that. Now, Greg Bird looked pretty good when he came back at the end of the season, and its possible Andujar fills the hole at 3rd and maybe Torres ends up at 2nd and maybe they don't skip a beat. But that young talent could also show their inexperience. It's already been mentioned here how Boone's managerial inexperience could come into play and be exposed as well. While we're talking about reasons things could go wrong in NY, I want to bring up Stanton's introductory press conference. I've got to say, he was surprisingly uncharismatic. He seemed pretty eager to absolutely trash the Marlins. He didn't sound very comfortable or eloquent and I wonder how sheltered from the media he's been in Miami, and how well he'll adapt the the bright lights. I know that's often a cliche talking point when a small market star goes to a big market, but it did stick out to me that he just didn't sound as comfortable or confident as I'm used to hearing guys talk to the press. Just another thing worth watching moving forward.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 12, 2017 17:47:03 GMT -5
Got Mookie
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 12, 2017 18:09:36 GMT -5
It is with a heavy heart that I must announce to Red Sox fans that Giancarlo Stanton is actually good.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2017 18:38:20 GMT -5
It is with a heavy heart that I must announce to Red Sox fans that Giancarlo Stanton is actually good. Wow you got us with that hard biting commentary, even though not a single person said or implied anything close to the contrary. Though I will say "actually good" is closer to reality than "generational talent". So good job at recognizing your mistake.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 12, 2017 18:40:49 GMT -5
It is with a heavy heart that I must announce to Red Sox fans that Giancarlo Stanton is actually good. No one is arguing that. There are lots of good baseball players. They are arguing the degrees to which he is good, which is very debatable. The 59 homers were obviously part of a larger trend in baseball. He has injury history. And now he is going to have to answer to when he goes 10 games without a home run. We will see what how he handles it all.
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Post by patford on Dec 12, 2017 18:50:14 GMT -5
Judge had a rookie year that is unprecedented in the history of baseball, particularly as compared to his minor league production. I don't think there is anything to even compare it to which has been done previously. Stanton had by far the best year of his career. His career BA remains at .268, which is not all that impressive and in the past he has usually hit around 30 HR.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 13, 2017 11:59:44 GMT -5
Stanton and Judge hit the ball harder than anyone else. Their home run totals are less vulnerable to a de-juiced ball than anyone else’s. I don’t know why I have to keep repeating this.
As for degrees of how good Stanton is... Steamer gives him the second highest projected OPS in baseball next year (doesn’t change if you use a fancier adjusted offensive metric), behind only Mike Trout. Yes, he’s been held back by injuries, but on a rate basis, he is as good a hitter as you can find.
Again, I’m sorry everyone, but Stanton is really really good.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 13, 2017 13:11:13 GMT -5
I think it's ridiculous that people are trying to downplay Stanton's talent, but I do think he's more of an injury risk than most, especially if he's going to be play the outfield with regularity. Many people keep suggesting his only injury history is getting hit in the face, but this guy had some knee and hamstring injuries as well. In his seven full seasons (excluding the partial rookie call up year) he's managed to play 125 games or more just three times, and I don't think it's a lock that he'll play more in his 30s simply due to better luck. He is a massive human being, and maybe that has more to do with the durability issues than simple bad luck (outside of freak accidents like the hit by pitch, of course).
For a local perspective, since Opening Day 2011 Dustin Pedroia has played 61 more games than Stanton.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 13, 2017 15:30:20 GMT -5
I think it's ridiculous that people are trying to downplay Stanton's talent, but I do think he's more of an injury risk than most, especially if he's going to be play the outfield with regularity. Many people keep suggesting his only injury history is getting hit in the face, but this guy had some knee and hamstring injuries as well. In his seven full seasons (excluding the partial rookie call up year) he's managed to play 125 games or more just three times, and I don't think it's a lock that he'll play more in his 30s simply due to better luck. He is a massive human being, and maybe that has more to do with the durability issues than simple bad luck (outside of freak accidents like the hit by pitch, of course). For a local perspective, since Opening Day 2011 Dustin Pedroia has played 61 more games than Stanton. His injury history is by far the biggest reason to downgrade Stanton as a player, but I think it's at least somewhat overstated. The correlation between past injury and future injury isn't as strong as you might think, and there's at least some research suggesting that injuries beyond a player's last two seasons have virtually no predictive value. Our dumb human brains are quick to assume "oh that guy always gets hurt", but finding proof of that in the actual data isn't easy. Remember when Anthony Rendon was injury prone? He's played a full season in four of the past five years...
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2017 22:51:49 GMT -5
Paul Molitor was considered injury prone in his 20s. From 1984 to 1987 he missed like 250 games with injury. Then from age 31 to 36 he played in 154 games in five out of six seasons, and played in 161 at age 39. And yeah, Molitor is the exception. But it's just hard for me to take a guy who played in 159 games this season and think "yeah I don't want him, he can't stay on the field." He just did! There was nothing recurring or degenerative in his injury history, he just got hurt three times in two years.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 14, 2017 17:06:55 GMT -5
Paul Molitor was considered injury prone in his 20s. From 1984 to 1987 he missed like 250 games with injury. Then from age 31 to 36 he played in 154 games in five out of six seasons, and played in 161 at age 39. And yeah, Molitor is the exception. But it's just hard for me to take a guy who played in 159 games this season and think "yeah I don't want him, he can't stay on the field." He just did! There was nothing recurring or degenerative in his injury history, he just got hurt three times in two years. By way of example, though, a counterargument (see 2013): www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowrije01.shtmlI don't completely disagree with your point, but I don't think one year of health is enough to dispel actual injury prone-ness. I'm also not sure that's what we have with Stanton either.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,846
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Post by nomar on Dec 14, 2017 17:15:01 GMT -5
Yankees are going to have very lofty expectations. It should relieve a bit of pressure from our guys.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 15, 2017 9:13:29 GMT -5
I'm already having nightmares, hearing Michael kays voice - "Gian-Carlo..... See ya tomorrow!"
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Post by ryan24 on Dec 15, 2017 14:27:47 GMT -5
He doesn't have to be ironman Cal Ripken to be somebody capable of getting a bigger contract after the 2020 season. And I'm not convinced, with the DH in his backpocket, that he's going to be more injury prone than the average player. I'm not convinced he's more injury prone than the average player right now. I wouldn't count on it. The fact that he can play in 159 games tells me he's quite capable of giving his team games. He'll miss games, just like everybody else will, but I don't think it's going to be an abnormal amount. I would agree only if he became a full time DH. Like with Martinez, I think that can make a world of difference. If he plays the OF, gets injured, how many games is he healthy enough to DH, but not play the field? It could certainly help, but I don't see how it makes him a normal health risk. Unless the plan is to DH him a lot through the season to try and help prevent injury. That is going to hurt his war though, as a lot of his value is his good D. He doesn't have to be an Ironman, but he has to awful good to opt out of that contract. He will have to have by far and away the best 3 year stretch of his career. He will have 220 million over 7 years left, going into his age 31 season, with another option year. He doesn't get more than that by having only one monster season over the next 3 years. This last statement is well said. It is exactly why I am glad that the sox did not get Stanton. At 31 he will have 220 mil still coming. Unless he has 3 50 hr seasons in a row, why would he opt out? I think it will be very hard for him to find a better contract than that. I also wonder did Stanton have his career season and does he fall back into a 30 hr "rut". You easily could be looking at the last 3-5 yrs as dead money, kind of in line with A-rod. Injuries are part of the game. The Yankees have a lot of options at dh and in the outfield to manage Stanton's playing time.
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