SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
JD Martinez (2/19 update: signs with Boston)
|
Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Dec 14, 2017 16:21:50 GMT -5
Some of you are really scaring the hebejebes out of me with some of these predictions. Not saying you're wrong. Am I the only one checking online every few mins for updates with a sense of excitement mixed with dread?
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Dec 14, 2017 19:55:39 GMT -5
I think almost all these estimates are high. But maybe I'm nuts. I'll be contrarian, though.
I'm playing Price Is Right - I'll take 5/$95 or 6/$120
|
|
|
Post by pedroiaesque on Dec 14, 2017 21:15:01 GMT -5
I’ll jump on the contrarian bus and say 3/105, with the chance to opt out after each year. It’s seems crazy to consider re-entering the market with Machado and Harper out there, but teams are gonna be looking to spend on a hitter, and he could be an interesting backup plan for some.
I’d rather 3/75, but to get him to take the shorter contract, you’ll need to up the AAV. Maybe split the difference at 3/90?
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Dec 14, 2017 22:39:49 GMT -5
I think almost all these estimates are high. But maybe I'm nuts. I'll be contrarian, though. I'm playing Price Is Right - I'll take 5/$95 or 6/$120 Well, you’d think he’d be somewhere around Upton, who’s a better fielder and base runner and has more positional flexibility but less pop. Upton’s been basically a consistent 3-WAR player with a nice year last year at (fWAR) 5. Martinez was only 3.8, but missed significant time. Same age. So the template is roughly 5/106 but I think he gets a bit more with Boras and already being a FA (and not deciding on risking an opt-out). I think 6/$120 would be very palatable and 5/$95 a steal. I hope you’re right. Who knows...the Encarnación market imploded, and the Indians got a great deal.
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Dec 14, 2017 23:32:15 GMT -5
All these numbers of over $25m per year and over 5 years. I would pass.
|
|
|
Post by artfuldodger on Dec 15, 2017 6:02:26 GMT -5
I am beginning to believe that JDM and Hosmer is possible. I think JDM is going to sign a contract similar to max scherzer with payments that is spread over twice as long as the length of the contract so the contract amount looks bloated. I think Hosmer’s may be front loaded of similar length to JDM with an opt out after 3 years with the understanding that Hosmer will opt out. That way Boras looks like he was not overpromising JDM and Hosmer but the actual bite will be much less. My guess for JDM is $180 million for 6 years.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 15, 2017 6:44:26 GMT -5
I think almost all these estimates are high. But maybe I'm nuts. I'll be contrarian, though. I'm playing Price Is Right - I'll take 5/$95 or 6/$120 Oh, if we're playing Price Is Right, I bid $1.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Dec 15, 2017 11:40:38 GMT -5
I think it will end up being 5/$125 with 2 team options. Just not positive it will be the Red Sox.
|
|
|
Post by nonothing on Dec 15, 2017 12:32:43 GMT -5
If Sox trade for Machado, JDM number will go down. Holdup is probably that best money would come from Giants, and he probably has no interest in playing for a loser, which is what the Giants should be expected to be, even with him on there. Sox would increase leverage in this if they can strike a deal for Machado, making their power need less pronounced. STL already out of this race now, rest of NL should be out. what is latest on where he really could go to a contender? BOS, LAA (if willing to play Pujols at 1B), SEA (if they are willing to play Cruz or Martinez in OF), maybe HOU (if they move Gattis), TEX or CHW could pay up but will still be bad, though CHW will probably get good during the deal. NYY only other team if they want to blow the luxury tax wide open, but I doubt they will. They need pitching more than another masher and have roster slot issue with OF/DHs with Ellsbury already. So BOS is best destination for Martinez in all likelihood because all those compromises cost the other teams money (except maybe HOU, which also needs pitching more than more offense).
My guess is JDM to Sox because the match fits both sides equally well, and deal is 5 yr guarantee at $22MM/yr, with 2 options years at $25MM each with $5MM buyout per year. Guaranteed $120MM. If Boras wants to overinflate the deal, as he has in the past, maybe they find a way to get it higher with deferrals, but I am not sure the Sox are interested in that.
By the way, I think there is no chance JDM signs a deal for less than $100MM unless it is a 3 year deal, but I also don't think he will get more than $25MM AAV in any deal. Just too much for an offense only player.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Dec 15, 2017 12:34:00 GMT -5
Personally, I think the length of the potential contract is interesting. In the incessant media comparisons to Hosmer, much is being made about how Martinez is older, which might bias some fans into thinking that we should avoid a longer contract with Martinez. That said, consider that a 6 year contract would cover Martinez's age 30-35 seasons. If one signs Martinez as their primary DH, would you really worry about his offensive performance falling off during the course of a 6 year contract? I think some of Martinez's closest recent comparables (offensively) are Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz, and Edwin Encarnacion.
| Age 33 wRC+ | Age 34 wRC+ | Age 35 wRC+ | Age 36 wRC+ | Jose Bautista | 160 | 148 | 122 | 80 | Nelson Cruz | 137 | 158 | 147 | 146 | Encarnacion | 135 | 131 | ? | ? |
Obviously, this isn't a very thorough examination, but I don't see why signing JD Martinez to be a middle of the order bat for his age 30-35 seasons seems like much of a risk. In fact, if there are teams in the bidding that insist on 5, I'd gladly offer 6, as I think its quite possible he could be the presence we need for the entirety of that potential contract.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 19, 2017 6:34:09 GMT -5
Listened to Sports Tonight yesterday and Evan Drellich spoke about J.D. Martinez. I have no tweets about this, but he heard that the hang up with the J.D. Martinez deal is currently the 7th year that Boras wants.
|
|
|
Post by kman22 on Dec 19, 2017 9:52:43 GMT -5
Listened to Sports Tonight yesterday and Evan Drellich spoke about J.D. Martinez. I have no tweets about this, but he heard that the hang up with the J.D. Martinez deal is currently the 7th year that Boras wants. He was also saying he was thinking somewhere in the $200M range would be a good deal. So grain of salt.
|
|
|
Post by adiospaydro2005 on Dec 19, 2017 12:16:21 GMT -5
Anything more than 5 years and $125 million I say good bye and good luck to Martinez if I am the Red Sox. This is JD Martinez who is no where close to a transcendent player. The Red Sox have been suckered too often lately in free agency by signing the likes of Sandoval, Price, Crawford, etc. by paying too much and too long for free agents. Overpaying for Martinez this year, means much less money available in the long term to sign top tier players such as Sale and Betts.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 20, 2017 17:33:13 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Coreno on Dec 20, 2017 17:41:10 GMT -5
I don't think the Giants were ever really in on JDM, especially after adding Longoria.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 20, 2017 18:24:45 GMT -5
Brilliant move by the Giants. This is one of the few players that has no qualifying offer attached and that was their main goal, to stay away from players with draft picks attached. Jay Bruce can actually play defense too, unlike Martinez.
|
|
|
Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 20, 2017 22:36:00 GMT -5
I'm going to say 6/132. 22 mill per yr in a depressed market with only a few teams willing to spend big and the need for an OFer/DH
|
|
|
Post by cyaz8 on Dec 21, 2017 13:04:56 GMT -5
What about Jay Bruce as full time DH and 4th OF? He won't cost us like JDM as alternate Power HR hitter and can fill in LF if AB is injury or get day off. JB is probably cost about 3 yr/$60-75 mil range and won't request for $200 mil due to Scott Boras suggested the price for JDM. The team needs to stay under $197 as salary threshold.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2017 13:13:13 GMT -5
What about Jay Bruce as full time DH and 4th OF? He won't cost us like JDM as alternate Power HR hitter and can fill in LF if AB is injury or get day off. JB is probably cost about 3 yr/$60-75 mil range and won't request for $200 mil due to Scott Boras suggested the price for JDM. The team needs to stay under $197 as salary threshold. Why do we need to stay under the 197 threshold ? Also we are already over it by a good amount with the Moreland signing.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 21, 2017 13:34:26 GMT -5
...Why do we need to stay under the 197 threshold ? Also we are already over it by a good amount with the Moreland signing. Here's a primer. The Sox would, in the near future, find themselves competitively out-classed if they can't put some sort of limit on their spending. That's due to some bad choices in the past, the fact that the upcoming market will be very rich in established talent, and their own need to pay for and keep at least some of the talent they already have that should be extended. I'm sure the spreadsheet the team keeps to map out those scenarios has a large number of tabs.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Dec 21, 2017 13:38:06 GMT -5
That doesn't apply to the Red Sox, though, who stayed under the cap this year. Given the roster construction and the lack of immediate penalties, I'd agree that a $197M budget would be unrealistic and ultimately self-defeating.
From the Olney article:
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 21, 2017 13:39:25 GMT -5
The whole point of getting under last year was to have the ability to go over it this year and in the next couple of years. The CBT doesn't really act as a cap so much as an every-third-year cap - we're going to see teams come up for air briefly before diving back down and just dealing with the overage tax for a few years.
David Price is the only player signed for big money past 2019 (no, I don't count Pedroia), and he's got an opt-out. The team will have plenty of financial flexibility going forward even if they sign JD Martinez, although it certainly will lead to tough choices on what to do with guys approaching free agency.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 21, 2017 13:57:30 GMT -5
Losing those big chunks of contracts are difference makers. The Sox potentially lose $22 million of payroll when Hanley's option doesn't kick in after this season. And of course Kimbrel's $12 (est guess) million/year deal expires as well as Pomeranz' cheapie deal. Of course if Price opts out (doubtful) then the Sox have a bunch of play money for Winter 2018 except they'd be down at least one starter - they could allocate some of that money to Pomeranz if that were to occur.
The Sox are freed of Sandoval's contract and Porcello's deal, so that's another $39 million of payroll that opens up. Of course Sale's $12 (est guess) million/year deal also expires as well, as does Moreland's new deal.
Nothing like a lot of money coming off the payroll. I kind of watched in envy with NY who basically replaced ARod's dead money which just ended with Stanton's deal.
They were able to downgrade Sabathia's expiring deal into that one year deal, and were able to get rid of mid-level deals like Castro and Headley. Their finances look more efficient, although they are stuck with Ellsbury. They'd have to pay more than half that deal to have a chance to dump him.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 21, 2017 14:22:37 GMT -5
That doesn't apply to the Red Sox, though, who stayed under the cap this year. Given the roster construction and the lack of immediate penalties, I'd agree that a $197M budget would be unrealistic and ultimately self-defeating. From the Olney article: All well and good. Cot's estimate for 2018 approaches $98 million before arbitration, and without including a big bat. Their arb figure this year is estimated at $49 million. I think it's safe to add another $20 million to that figure next year. Add Martinez at, say $23 million, and your negotiating room gets a lot tighter. They'll probably want to extend at least two or more of Betts, Bogaerts, Vazquez, and/or Bradley at some point in the next two years. That's without even considering Pomeranz, Thornburg, Smith, or Workman a few of whom might be valuable enough to keep on board. Certainly, they've got some room, but care has to be taken given that those stranded assets will be a burden for a few more years and they've got some real competition in the marketplace.
|
|
|
Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 21, 2017 15:30:24 GMT -5
At this point I don't know who has the money and playing time for JDM besides the Red Sox, esp if he wants to play for a contending team. Giants and Ariz don't have the money, Rockies already have too many OFers, Blue Jays are in a soft rebuild, and most other teams are trying to get under the tax
|
|
|