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JD Martinez (2/19 update: signs with Boston)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2017 15:47:38 GMT -5
...Why do we need to stay under the 197 threshold ? Also we are already over it by a good amount with the Moreland signing. Here's a primer. The Sox would, in the near future, find themselves competitively out-classed if they can't put some sort of limit on their spending. That's due to some bad choices in the past, the fact that the upcoming market will be very rich in established talent, and their own need to pay for and keep at least some of the talent they already have that should be extended. I'm sure the spreadsheet the team keeps to map out those scenarios has a large number of tabs. We reset the tax last year, so we can spend at a lower tax rate for the next couple of years. The year after you reset the tax rate is the best year to spend. You can make a case not to add any contracts over 2 years, so you can reset the tax again in 2020. That doesn't mean you have to stay under this year. You can make a case that because we already reset the tax, we should spend spend spend because no one else is. Just keep the deals short. Nunez only cost two years sign him up. Get another reliever if it only takes two years. We can afford to add depth and luxury items other teams can't. Your primer in my opinion shows that we should spend, not that we shouldn't.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 21, 2017 18:39:00 GMT -5
That doesn't apply to the Red Sox, though, who stayed under the cap this year. Given the roster construction and the lack of immediate penalties, I'd agree that a $197M budget would be unrealistic and ultimately self-defeating. From the Olney article: All well and good. Cot's estimate for 2018 approaches $98 million before arbitration, and without including a big bat. Their arb figure this year is estimated at $49 million. I think it's safe to add another $20 million to that figure next year. Add Martinez at, say $23 million, and your negotiating room gets a lot tighter. They'll probably want to extend at least two or more of Betts, Bogaerts, Vazquez, and/or Bradley at some point in the next two years. That's without even considering Pomeranz, Thornburg, Smith, or Workman a few of whom might be valuable enough to keep on board. Certainly, they've got some room, but care has to be taken given that those stranded assets will be a burden for a few more years and they've got some real competition in the marketplace. Are you talking about 2018 or 2019? We all agree they're going over the cap this year. Dombrowski's even said it. Next year, Kimbrel's money comes off the books. It seems likely that they're going to try to keep Hanley's option from vesting, taking him off the books. That's $35M in 2018 salary coming off the books going into 2019. If Price opts out, that's another $30M. Sale's $1M raise is offset by Pedroia's $1M decrease. In 2020, Porcello ($21M) and Sale ($13.5M) come off the books. There's been talk from one poster of "creativity." The place this team will need to be creative going forward is managing its slew of arb-eligible players, not in player acquisition, imho. How will they extend them? Who will they extend? For how much and how long? Who will they trade in order to make room for the expanding salaries of others? We know Mookie wants to go year-to-year, but will other players sign extensions?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 21, 2017 19:46:17 GMT -5
It was 2019, my mistake - I'm always a year behind! Nowhere did I say they weren't going to go over this year. It's about how much they go over, about getting the slack necessary to get those arb contracts in place and/or extending their important players without blowing out that 3-year hard cap.
There's a lot of contingency in the calculations, and Cot's does not wipe Price off the books, though they do eliminate Hanley's salary. That takes it by my addition to $104 million before arb. Tack that on, throw in the heavy hitter - presumably for multiple years - and that pushes them up near $190. That's before any long-term extensions, and I agree that's the biggest part of what they need to manage.
But player acquisition has to be part of this. Pomeranz is a free agent and will probably draw a lot of attention if he's anywhere near the pitcher he was in 2017. Somebody has to pick up those innings, and if it is Pomeranz again, on a new contract, he's definitely an "acquisition". Throw that or some other warm body on the pile and it all starts to add up.
Lots of tabs on the spreadsheet...
...which I've started messing with. The total at the bottom for 2018 on the Cot's spreadsheet is wrong. It doesn't include a surefire $13.5 million option to keep Sale which, unless something drastic happens, is guaranteed to be on the payroll. So it's at $117 million before any arb payments, any big contract for a hitter, and any additional 25-man roster players. This year's arbitration payments will go a long way towards informing 2019's. Those players include much of the young core and they won't come cheaply. I'm going to keep working this up and reporting on the total as the figures come in.
More: I included conservative figures for the 2018 and 2019 arbitration numbers, and without assuming any additional contracts, the estimate is $201 million in 2018. Cot's figures that at $206.6 million. That does not include the remaining 25-man roster spots or the overhead. In 2019 with Pomeranz, Kimbrel, and Ramirez off the books, and Price opting out, they're at about $145 million, again with conservative figures for the arb guys, no big bat, no 25-man roster buildout, and without including the overhead. With Price and his $32 million, they're at nearly $180 million.
But the FAs have to be replaced. Pomeranz was arguably the most reliable starter last year, and he's been worth 4 wins each of the last two seasons. Those pitchers are market-sparse and he may be an asset they want to extend even before they work on the position players. Kimbrel will probably be gone, with someone picked off the FA lists as a replacement, or perhaps an in-house fix if Thornburg and/or Smith locate their mojo. All that probably brings the payroll into the $160-165 million range at a minimum before the rest of the roster is filled out and more like $200 million with Price. Now, throw in that middle of the order guy, and you're back up somewhere between $190 and $220 million.
They can finesse this if they play their cards right, but starting pitching will be in deficit by 2019. That will be job one, and with the farm largely devoid of near-ready talent, there's no way they replay the trade game that acquired Pomeranz and Sale.
It's going to take a little magic to stay under the cap and run a competitive team, one with at least 3 reliable starters, out there. It's not going to be easy.
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Post by marrcus on Dec 26, 2017 2:47:31 GMT -5
Forget about the $$$ for a moment and how long is this going to take? My guess is a status quo could last a while. Like maybe well into January. How does 1/18/18 sound?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 2, 2018 13:38:26 GMT -5
Nightengale (ALL OF THE GRAINS OF SALT ALERT) reporting that the Red Sox have a five-year offer on the table for Martinez.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 2, 2018 13:40:50 GMT -5
Nightengale (ALL OF THE GRAINS OF SALT ALERT) reporting that the Red Sox have a five-year offer on the table for Martinez. That make total sense and would be what I expected. Boras will be asking 7 and they should settle on 6, unless they want a AAV discount going to 7.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 2, 2018 13:50:27 GMT -5
Nightengale (ALL OF THE GRAINS OF SALT ALERT) reporting that the Red Sox have a five-year offer on the table for Martinez. Nightengale isn't normally right about anything, but it's plausible. I'd speculate that the Sox probably have an offer for something around 5 years $115 million on the table while Boras wants his client to get somewhere around 7 years $210 million. Obviously nobody will give him that, but I think other teams will eventually jump in around that mark. I think if the Sox want to get him they'll probably have to go six year $150 million. I think there's enough threats of other teams jumping in that the Sox won't be able to get away with a 5 year deal in the $23 million/year range. They'll have to go the sixth year and up the annual a bit. I would be very surprised to see a team give him 7 years or go more than $27 million/year annually.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2018 14:56:11 GMT -5
Boris’ anointed mouthpiece is Jon Heyman, but maybe Nightengale, who I think is a Cafardo clone, may have found a crumb.
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Post by larryf38 on Jan 2, 2018 17:58:33 GMT -5
5 yr 137.50 says my sources.. with team option for 28mil for 6th year or 4 mil buyout
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 2, 2018 18:11:40 GMT -5
5 yr 137.50 says my sources.. with team option for 28mil for 6th year or 4 mil buyout What sources?
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 2, 2018 18:30:38 GMT -5
I think Martinez is signed by the end of the winter meetings. 6/156 is my guess (which was admittedly also Dave Cameron's). I would think Dave is trying real hard on not adding the 6th year, so I will throw out 5 years at $27 mill per yr with an option for the 6th with a buy out for about $8 million. That comes to $143 million guaranteed. I acknowledge Boras will keep pushing, but I'd hate to see JD get 6 years. My guess may be real close it looks!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 2, 2018 18:49:22 GMT -5
5 yr 137.50 says my sources.. with team option for 28mil for 6th year or 4 mil buyout What sources? Where is BriSox when you need him?!
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 2, 2018 20:31:35 GMT -5
Nightengale (ALL OF THE GRAINS OF SALT ALERT) reporting that the Red Sox have a five-year offer on the table for Martinez. if true, i am happy to hear this. if it is for 125 -135, i think that is a great offer and the player is foolish not to take
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 2, 2018 20:36:09 GMT -5
Nightengale (ALL OF THE GRAINS OF SALT ALERT) reporting that the Red Sox have a five-year offer on the table for Martinez. That make total sense and would be what I expected. Boras will be asking 7 and they should settle on 6, unless they want a AAV discount going to 7. i would only offer a team option for another year. i would not go 6, his injury history is too risky and he plays no defense add: i stopped reading at Chris' post. Crowdsource has this down pretty well
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bigmarty58
Rookie
2011 Pancreatic Cancer Survivor - One of the lucky ones
Posts: 162
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Post by bigmarty58 on Jan 6, 2018 17:04:09 GMT -5
Nightengale (ALL OF THE GRAINS OF SALT ALERT) reporting that the Red Sox have a five-year offer on the table for Martinez. if true, i am happy to hear this. if it is for 125 -135, i think that is a great offer and the player is foolish not to take Agree, five years 125 - 135 is a winning hand for both JDM and the Red Sox.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jan 7, 2018 14:59:06 GMT -5
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Post by sparkygian on Jan 7, 2018 20:22:11 GMT -5
What is the opinions of this forum, about DD hard-lining a potential future new player for the Sox? Does JDM end up with a bitter taste that he wasn't properly rewarded, if he ends up with the Sox for a contract that isn't lengthy enough, or large enough? Is it worth it for the front office to maintain such a hard-line stance with someone they're trying to recruit? Does he end up with a little less motivation cause he's unhappy? Is it worth the extra money to roll out the red carpet for someone you're trying to recruit? Or is the huge, rumored 5 yr contract the Sox are offering more than enough?
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Post by p23w on Jan 7, 2018 20:58:12 GMT -5
What is the opinions of this forum, about DD hard-lining a potential future new player for the Sox? Does JDM end up with a bitter taste that he wasn't properly rewarded, if he ends up with the Sox for a contract that isn't lengthy enough, or large enough? Is it worth it for the front office to maintain such a hard-line stance with someone they're trying to recruit? Does he end up with a little less motivation cause he's unhappy? Is it worth the extra money to roll out the red carpet for someone you're trying to recruit? Or is the huge, rumored 5 yr contract the Sox are offering more than enough? Doubtful concerning the bitter taste. DD has a history with JDM (and whether he [JDM] realizes it or not his tutelage under Miguel Cabrera has much to do with recent success). The only transactional "concern" that is of potential trouble to this fan is the connection JDM made with his Diamondback teammates from last year. Since JDM's non player mentor is now Scott Boras, it is doubtful that JDM would react with less motivation. Another sizable contract (or significant "pillow" contracts as a DH) could follow the successful conclusion of a 5 year contract. My only question is whether this 5 year contract is signed with his current team, or the Red Sox. The Red Sox may need to go longer to ward off competition from a National League team. I would be stunned if JDM signed with any other American League team.
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Post by jiant2520 on Jan 16, 2018 11:28:13 GMT -5
6/156 sounds about right... if I had to guess. This was back on 12/13.... I reserve the right to change this guess, lol. 5/132.5... final guess, unless I change it again.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2018 12:11:22 GMT -5
3/69m with a 2 club options is my offer. AND I'll throw in a gift certificate for the Jelly of the Month Club.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 16, 2018 12:24:16 GMT -5
3/69m with a 2 club options is my offer. AND I'll throw in a gift certificate for the Jelly of the Month Club. That would be a very nice deal.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 16, 2018 12:42:07 GMT -5
Clark, that's the gift that keeps on giving throughout the entire year.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 16, 2018 13:19:54 GMT -5
3/69m with a 2 club options is my offer. AND I'll throw in a gift certificate for the Jelly of the Month Club. You throw in that gift certificate knowing he would then have to sign up for the peanut butter of the month club. That's sneaky.
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Post by borisman on Jan 16, 2018 13:52:16 GMT -5
With McCutcheon going to SF this likely takes them off the list for JDM even though Andrew plays CF.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 16, 2018 14:06:09 GMT -5
With McCutcheon going to SF this likely takes them off the list for JDM even though Andrew plays CF.The Giants are planning to play him on a corner. Which is a good idea, given how much his range has declined in center the last two years.
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