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JD Martinez (2/19 update: signs with Boston)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2018 18:20:50 GMT -5
Several of the NC questions dealt with DH. JDM two times that I heard, referred back to 'playing RF.' I find it hard to believe he thinks he's going to be out there with Betts around? But that's what he said. I guess these press conferences are pretty laid back, but couldn't a reporter just ask him if he expects to displace the player with some of the best defensive seasons of all-time in RF? He has played nothing but right field the past three seasons. It's probably just instinct for him to say that.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 26, 2018 18:52:22 GMT -5
JDM had a .516 ISO vs. LHP last year. That's like 2001 Barry Bonds ridiculous, granted in a 110 PA sample. He should continue to destroy lefties because of how well he goes the other way. Lefties have nowhere to pitch him because he covers the entire plate. I hope he takes to playing DH every day. Papi has to come to camp to give him lots of advice soon. Getting really excited about him finally. For those who've not seen it, there's an excellent FanGraphs piece on Martinez and his skillset. In a nutshell: limited, but within those limits, that's to say as a hitter, without peer in his ability to hit to all fields. Here's the takeaway: his contact skills in relation to other hitters: The accompanying text says it all:
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Post by soxjim on Feb 26, 2018 23:53:38 GMT -5
Sox had trouble last year scoring in Yankee Stadium. I'm excited to see what JD can do with that short rf porch.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 27, 2018 0:55:29 GMT -5
Sox had trouble last year scoring in Yankee Stadium. I'm excited to see what JD can do with that short rf porch. JDM in Yankee stadium is like feeding a dead carcass filled with 6 starving hyenas in a circle, a pure feeding frenzy. Ditto with Camden Yards. Ortiz was epic in 2006, but JDM with a juiced in 2018 in this division has a chance to be the best season of the Sox all time (maybe except Williams that year he hit .406). He has been that great when healthy recently.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 27, 2018 5:03:08 GMT -5
Sox had trouble last year scoring in Yankee Stadium. I'm excited to see what JD can do with that short rf porch. JDM in Yankee stadium is like feeding a dead carcass filled with 6 starving hyenas in a circle, a pure feeding frenzy. Ditto with Camden Yards. Ortiz was epic in 2006, but JDM with a juiced in 2018 in this division has a chance to be the best season of the Sox all time (maybe except Williams that year he hit .406). He has been that great when healthy recently.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 27, 2018 23:22:39 GMT -5
Sox had trouble last year scoring in Yankee Stadium. I'm excited to see what JD can do with that short rf porch. Excellent point. He’s basically the ideal RHH for the AL East. Should help against Severino and Tanaka especially. In 271 PA the past three years when hitting the ball to the right side vs RHP, he averages over 70% FB and has 41 HR. So if he makes contact going oppo vs a RHP, he’s in the air over 70% of the time and homering over 15% of the time. If Devers continues his accelerated development curve, that’s a dangerous pair in that park. And Camden, fwiw.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 27, 2018 23:36:50 GMT -5
Sox had trouble last year scoring in Yankee Stadium. I'm excited to see what JD can do with that short rf porch. Excellent point. He’s basically the ideal RHH for the AL East. Should help against Severino and Tanaka especially. In 271 PA the past three years when hitting the ball to the right side vs RHP, he averages over 70% FB and has 41 HR. So if he makes contact going oppo vs a RHP, he’s in the air over 70% of the time and homering over 15% of the time. If Devers continues his accelerated development curve, that’s a dangerous pair in that park. And Camden, fwiw.I think Devers is one year away from being a beast. Though I think he'll be good. What Beni in that short porch rf and in baltimore was damn good. Here are his slash numbers (ofc not many at bats but the point is he can pull. Obviously not saying he will replicate but still at least there is potential to light it up in these parks): At NY 35ab -- .343/.415/.771/1.186 At Bal 35ab -- .371/.436/.571/1.007
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Post by telson13 on Feb 28, 2018 0:28:29 GMT -5
Excellent point. He’s basically the ideal RHH for the AL East. Should help against Severino and Tanaka especially. In 271 PA the past three years when hitting the ball to the right side vs RHP, he averages over 70% FB and has 41 HR. So if he makes contact going oppo vs a RHP, he’s in the air over 70% of the time and homering over 15% of the time. If Devers continues his accelerated development curve, that’s a dangerous pair in that park. And Camden, fwiw.I think Devers is one year away from being a beast. Though I think he'll be good. What Beni in that short porch rf and in baltimore was damn good. Here are his slash numbers (ofc not many at bats but the point is he can pull. Obviously not saying he will replicate but still at least there is potential to light it up in these parks): At NY 35ab -- .343/.415/.771/1.186 At Bal 35ab -- .371/.436/.571/1.007 I think you’re probably dead-on with Devers. I see him having nice year but nothing eye-popping. Maybe .280/.350/.500 with 25-30 HR if the ball is still juiced. But yeah, after 700-800 PA, I think he’s going to the next level. Love the Beni stats in those parks, I hadn’t really thought of that, although you’d think I would because he had some terrific games in NY. FenwayTHW and i had a debate about him in the Beni-what is he? thread, and i really believe he’s going to be less inclined to sell out for power this year and probably up his production as a result, by making better contact and hitting fewer grounders especially against lefties. I think he’s going to breakout (albeit more as a LD/2b/high-average hitter) this year the way we both hope Devers will next year. I actually think he’ll hit for more power just by not overswinging and letting his natural ability take over. Most of all, I’m convinced that with JDM as “the guy,” the rest of the team (largely young guys) will feel less compelled to try to do everything themselves. I think there’s going to be substantial trickle-down improvement. This could be a Sox offense like the ‘70s only with more speed and more balanced, deeper hitting talent. They’re going to be a LOT of fun to watch.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Feb 28, 2018 1:05:55 GMT -5
If Devers hits .280/.350/.500 he will join Cesar Cedeno, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton, Mike Trout x2 as players to do that at 21 or younger since 1960.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 28, 2018 11:23:19 GMT -5
Yeah, .280/.350/.500 is eye-popping. That'd make Devers like a top 50 hitter in baseball.
FWIW, Steamer has him at .286/.338/.483. That may not seem like a huge difference but that is a pretty decent drop. It's still a 112 wRC+. ZiPs a bit more pessimistic at .273/.324/.487, 109 wRC+.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 28, 2018 12:19:14 GMT -5
The needed adjustments were starting to surface last year. Pitchers figured out where to spot the high fastball and get him to chase. He's a real talent, though, and it will be interesting to see how he works through those issues. The power is unquestioned and he has the reaction time to take the outside pitch that's deep in the zone and launch it the other way. When he puts it all together he's going to be a monster.
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Post by m1keyboots on Feb 28, 2018 12:24:43 GMT -5
Ppl here ar mentioning JDMs ability to take advantage of what they call a right field in Yankee Stadium. It seems as though the Red Sox hitters who had success and utilized it like David Ortiz or even Johnny Damon are few and far between. Of course I'm just picking the popular names off that list, and last year guys like Mitch Moreland and even AB we're the only guys who took consistent advantage.
While I wasnt for JDs signing bc of the original dollar figures being thrown out, and mentions even on this site of getting rid of Jackie and moving JD into right field, I have to say I'm excited about his bat playing there.
We all saw how he hit in Arizona lacing line drives all over the field. I was most impressed with how he was able to get fooled on breaking balls or high velocity, outside fastballs and line or flip them over the right field fence. Thin air or not. For him to produce the kind of Ops he did without taking walks and relying on slugging percentage was pretty impressive. Here's to hoping it's not a two-year 50 million dollar deal.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 1, 2018 1:10:22 GMT -5
Yeah, .280/.350/.500 is eye-popping. That'd make Devers like a top 50 hitter in baseball. FWIW, Steamer has him at .286/.338/.483. That may not seem like a huge difference but that is a pretty decent drop. It's still a 112 wRC+. ZiPs a bit more pessimistic at .273/.324/.487, 109 wRC+. It’s funny: even as I was writing it, I was admitting to myself some homerist optimism (I hadn’t even checked his projections). In particular, I knew I was definitely overstating (and aware of it) his IsoD, because he really has never walked a lot in the minors. I figured the Slg was a tad high, but I’m bullish and I preferred the round number over, say, the .484 that popped in my head. And despite what Soxscout posted (great stat...I love it!), I’m going to stick with it. I think the OBA is a much bigger reach, and as much as I appreciate Norm’s excellent point on the opposing pitching adjustment, I’m maintaining my ST hope. It’s a SSS but I loved the counter-adjustment Devers made against the Astros, whose staff is no collection of slouches. The HRs against Liriano and Giles give me conviction that Devers will adapt rapidly. I’ll admit that I see my prediction as more of an idealized (10%?) outcome, and while it’s probably not “fair,” I really don’t think Devers’s name doesn’t belong on that list. Of all of the hitters on the Sox, I really think he’s the One most likely to have us saying “wow, just...wow” at the end of the year. That HR off of Chapman is right there with Bard’s ridiculous 99-mph wiffleball sinker to Swisher in terms of genuinely astounding baseball moments in my lifetime.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 1, 2018 2:20:23 GMT -5
I won't rule out nothing with Devers at Fenway. They might be the best couple on the planet.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Mar 1, 2018 11:44:58 GMT -5
Yeah, .280/.350/.500 is eye-popping. That'd make Devers like a top 50 hitter in baseball. FWIW, Steamer has him at .286/.338/.483. That may not seem like a huge difference but that is a pretty decent drop. It's still a 112 wRC+. ZiPs a bit more pessimistic at .273/.324/.487, 109 wRC+. That HR off of Chapman is right there with Bard’s ridiculous 99-mph wiffleball sinker to Swisher in terms of genuinely astounding baseball moments in my lifetime. So true. I'm never ever going to forget that.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 1, 2018 22:30:01 GMT -5
I won't rule out nothing with Devers at Fenway. They might be the best couple on the planet. I do think he’s going to realize fairly quickly that he can play Papi and pepper that wall. LHH with an all-fields approach (he loves to go LCF with power) are deadly in Fenway.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 1, 2018 22:38:56 GMT -5
I won't rule out nothing with Devers at Fenway. They might be the best couple on the planet. I do think he’s going to realize fairly quickly that he can play Papi and pepper that wall. LHH with an all-fields approach (he loves to go LCF with power) are deadly in Fenway. I think he already realizes it. He was taking inside pitches and driving them over the wall last year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 2, 2018 1:26:59 GMT -5
The one thing that irks me about JDM is his ignorance to his defense in the outfield. He admitted in the press conference about how baseball evaluators see him as a ballplayer (a dh only) and he said they even explained the metrics are down on him, but he almost refused to believe it "because of the hard work he puts in out there."
I just don't get it. He has a bad foot. He probably knows he's the worst outfielder the Sox have. Yet, he's determined to get playing time in the outfield.
At this point, I'd rather see Swihart be the backup outfielder. It wasn't just my eyes telling me that he looked really good in the outfield, the metrics had him as a +1 DRS defender in limited games in 2016. JDM was a -5 DRS defender last year and even worse in 2016.
Even if we are talking about the difference of 50 games of Martinez instead of Swihart, you're probably talking 5-8 DRS in the outfield (at least) if I had to guess. Maybe that's marginal to some, but in this tough division, I'll take any marginal gain I can get.
I just think him risking being in the outfield is just stubborn. His career clearly points to benefiting from DHing full-time with his bad wheel. The Sox would clearly benefit defensively by not having him out there, yet he wants to be out there because he can't accept a full-time DH role this early in his career because of my best guess making more money in 2 years.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 2, 2018 8:43:51 GMT -5
I just think him risking being in the outfield is just stubborn. His career clearly points to benefiting from DHing full-time with his bad wheel. The Sox would clearly benefit defensively by not having him out there, yet he wants to be out there because he can't accept a full-time DH role this early in his career because of my best guess making more money in 2 years. One thing that most major league players have in common is a supreme confidence in their own abilities. The weird thing for JDM to say would be "I know I'm a bad outfielder and I can't wait to help my team by never playing another inning in the field again".
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 2, 2018 9:34:14 GMT -5
The one thing that irks me about JDM is his ignorance to his defense in the outfield. He admitted in the press conference about how baseball evaluators see him as a ballplayer (a dh only) and he said they even explained the metrics are down on him, but he almost refused to believe it "because of the hard work he puts in out there." I just don't get it. He has a bad foot. He probably knows he's the worst outfielder the Sox have. Yet, he's determined to get playing time in the outfield. At this point, I'd rather see Swihart be the backup outfielder. It wasn't just my eyes telling me that he looked really good in the outfield, the metrics had him as a +1 DRS defender in limited games in 2016. JDM was a -5 DRS defender last year and even worse in 2016. Even if we are talking about the difference of 50 games of Martinez instead of Swihart, you're probably talking 5-8 DRS in the outfield (at least) if I had to guess. Maybe that's marginal to some, but in this tough division, I'll take any marginal gain I can get. I just think him risking being in the outfield is just stubborn. His career clearly points to benefiting from DHing full-time with his bad wheel. The Sox would clearly benefit defensively by not having him out there, yet he wants to be out there because he can't accept a full-time DH role this early in his career because of my best guess making more money in 2 years. He's not the manager, and like Fenway said, athletes have faith in their abilities. It's important they do. It's important the manager does what he needs to do. But honestly, while Swihart is probably better in the outfield, he's not really an outfielder either. JD Martinez in LF, particularly at Fenway, but playing about 30 games during the year in the outfield isn't a big killer. In all likelihood his presence in LF upgrades 1b defensively as likely Hanley shifts to DH and Moreland becomes the 1b. The fact is you don't want to lose his bat, and there are 9 interleague games where there is no DH, so he'll play LF in a few of those. Outfielders will need their rest. Cora doesn't seem to want them to play more than 140 - 145 games, and I think he has a good idea and he has the roster to make it work. The Red Sox have worn down by October the past two years. The extra 10 - 15 games they don't play will help keep them fresher. Even if the defense isn't optimal there are related benefits. Besides, my hope is we see Swihart behind the plate at some point. The guy was a legit prospect and I'm not convinced, that cannot be a viable catcher. If Vazquez were to get hurt, I'd hope we'd see a lot of Swihart at the plate as opposed to him backing up Leon. Swihart will get some opportunities in the outfield. If the outfield trio misses 20 games each, that's 60 outfield games, so perhaps he splits those with JDM, gets another 20 behind the plate and another 10 or so in the infield. Likely, somebody will get injured and Swihart will see more action. And if he hits, perhaps that gets him more chances as a catcher.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 2, 2018 12:43:42 GMT -5
I just think him risking being in the outfield is just stubborn. His career clearly points to benefiting from DHing full-time with his bad wheel. The Sox would clearly benefit defensively by not having him out there, yet he wants to be out there because he can't accept a full-time DH role this early in his career because of my best guess making more money in 2 years. One thing that most major league players have in common is a supreme confidence in their own abilities. The weird thing for JDM to say would be "I know I'm a bad outfielder and I can't wait to help my team by never playing another inning in the field again". That's true. I just would like to see him embrace the DH role more however. It's the best thing for both sides.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 2, 2018 12:55:53 GMT -5
One thing that most major league players have in common is a supreme confidence in their own abilities. The weird thing for JDM to say would be "I know I'm a bad outfielder and I can't wait to help my team by never playing another inning in the field again". That's true. I just would like to see him embrace the DH role more however. It's the best thing for both sides. IMO he has already embraced it. Listening to his openness to learning from VMart and Papi is heartening. He is preparing for the DH role, even while he hopes to do well in his role as backup OF. Papi was, after all, the backup 1B for years, and VMart still plays the field occasionally. It is time for us all to embrace JDM as a member of the Red Sox, warts and all. And if he hits well as DH, those $$ will be easy to come by, no problem.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 2, 2018 13:02:06 GMT -5
Very few warts on that bat, gerry , very few.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 2, 2018 13:47:41 GMT -5
Very few warts on that bat, gerry , very few. Exactly.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 2, 2018 13:55:10 GMT -5
Ehh. There's little things in there that tells me he still rather think of himself as a outfielder vs a DH right now. At the press conference he was sure to call himself a outfielder first and a DH second. When asked if he could benefit from watching more video from the dugout as a DH, he made sure to say-
"Well, I did that as a outfielder too."
It's something small and it doesn't affect anything, but it's disappointing to not hear him say-
"I'll play anywhere, I just want to do what's best for the team."
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