5/14-5/16 Red Sox vs. Athletics Series Thread

I'll predict that Mookie breaks up the no-hitter and shutout on the first pitch of the game.

There are six 2.0+ bWAR pitchers in the AL so far this year. Three are going in this series and two are the starters tonight.

Must've been before it updated for the day. Now 10 such pitchers.

Why does FanGraphs' WAR not like Manaea as much, btw? They only have him at 1.1 (T-20th), compared to 2.2 (T-5th) for B-Ref. Sale (1.9 (5th) to 2.5 (3rd)) and Porcello (1.8 (6th) to 2.1 (8th)) don't differ quite so much.

Manaea's FIP is just 3.53. Compare to Porcello (FIP 2.39/ERA 2.79), Sale (2.63/2.17), or Gerrit Cole (1.54/1.43), who all have ERAs and FIPs in the same neighborhood.

EDIT: Manaea's .186 BABIP is second lowest in MLB among qualifiers, behind Jarlin Garcia.

It was announced by the club, actually.

Feel bad for the Sox to be honest. A lot of close games and a lot of tired late inning relievers. I'm hoping for a blowout today one way or another.

Swihart sighting in the line-up:

Mookie Betts, RF

Andrew Benintendi, CF

Hanley Ramirez, 1B

J.D. Martinez, LF

Xander Bogaerts, SS

Eduardo Nunez, 2B

Blake Swihart, DH

Rafael Devers, 3B

Sandy Leon, C

Manaea has a .186 BABIP so his FIP is quite a bit higher than his ERA.  Fangraphs fWAR is all about FIP.  Sale and Porcello both have a .273 BABIP so their performance should be more sustainable.

edit- Sorry, James beat my post.

Btw, can we all agree that Kelly is probably the “8th inning guy”/pseudocloser we’ve all been waiting on? I mean, he’s by no means necessarily easy to watch all the time, but:
1) his ERA and FIP are pretty similar, and they’re both excellent in the low 2.-s
2) his xFIP isn’t as stunning, but he has yet to give up a homer, and after last year (0.5 HR/9), maybe it’s time we admit that’s a skill? I know I certainly worry about walks and messy innings with him, but I’ve definitely noticed, rightly or not, I don’t worry about HRs
3) He’s missing bats, finally, with a K/9 over 10 and a SwStr% of 11.3, the fifth or sixth straight year it’s gone up. His O-swing rate has dropped, so guys are laying off a bit, but his O-contact is down ***almost 25%!!!***. So when he does fool a hitter, they are *really* flailing. And he’s sporting a career-low contact% overall.
4) His first-strike % is atrocious, at 52%. That absolutely needs to change. But his walks are down, and his command in and around the edges of the zone finally looks a little better. He’s actually *pitching*. If he can get that first-str % up, then his O-swing % will go up because he’ll be pitching ahead. He’ll miss more bats, and he’ll be even better. And the BB rate will continue to drop.
5) The dude is a GB machine. He’s over 50% again. His GB/FB ratio is down a bit from earlier in his career, but it’s still a robust 1.67. That’s fantastic. Seriously...Kelly is the guy I want out there with the bases loaded with no outs in a tie game. You pretty much know he’s not giving up the granny, and he’s a better shot than anyone else save maybe Kimbrel to get out of it, probably with K-DP, or a wake INF fly, K, grounder...whatever. I mean, after years of infuriating pitching and endless eyerolls...I actually have confidence that he can get us out of the *toughest* jams.
6) Furthermore, he doesn’t give up many hits anymore, either. His IFFB rate is way up (SSS caveat), and he gives up a fair share of hard contact, but that’s usually on the ground...all the better for the double play. Air outs are often soft/medium and seldom seem to do damage. His BAA is well under .200 since the start of 2017.

Joe Kelly isn’t (eyeroll) Joe Kelly anymore. He’s not even just good. He’s friggin’ great. He’s an immediate extension candidate and (dare I say it?) almost an acceptable alternative to re-signing Kimbrel at some godawful AAV.

I'd be okay with a Kelly at a lower AAV if gets Mookie and Sale extended.

Starting to wonder if Pomeranz's velocity doesn't come back, if he'll take the qualifying offer if/when offered the QO.

He's had 4 or 5 starts now and he should be getting stronger, but the velocity is still down.

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