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7/9-7/11 Red Sox vs. Rangers Series Thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 11, 2018 0:26:45 GMT -5
If we get him we go over the luxury tax and fall 10 draft spots, in addition to whatever prospects we have to give. Not worth it. If you trade Nunez on top of Pomeranz, you can stay under. Either that or get creative and get cash thrown in. I don't know if Dombrowski will be holding back. He might go for the jugular here. There are multiple reports from multiple sources tying the Sox with Britton and I don't see it going away until Britton is traded. I like Soria, but if Britton starts pitching back to something resembling his 2016 form, then he's the guy I'd love to see the Sox get. I think you have good ideas about the Sox dumping Pomeranz and Nunez to come up with the financial savings to obtain Britton. I just have trouble believing that any contender is going to take whatever is left of Pomeranz' deal if he hasn't shown that he's back to throwing 92 MPH and isn't batting practice, which is what he's been this year. Can't imagine that Nunez is a must get either for other teams, but if the Sox can somehow finagle this, perhaps they can have their cake and eat it to, if Britton continues to look more like his former self and the Sox can avoid going over the threshhold. What would it cost to get Britton? If I were Baltimore I'd want Shawaryn, Beeks or Poyner, and maybe a lottery ticket like Darwinzon Hernandez. My hope is that Buttrey and Jerez and a lottery ticket would be Britton and that the Sox can somehow financially finagle things to stay under the limit. I would be willing to part with Beeks more than Poyner if need be, though, assuming they don't want Jerez. With Brandon Phillips on the way up and Lin around, they certainly don't need Nunez, and if they get Britton for the pen and Wright or Johnston comes back they certainly don't need Pomeranz - but again I'm assuming we don't see the 2017 version of Pomeranz - I would think other teams think the same thing and pass on him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 11, 2018 0:45:05 GMT -5
If you trade Nunez on top of Pomeranz, you can stay under. Either that or get creative and get cash thrown in. I don't know if Dombrowski will be holding back. He might go for the jugular here. There are multiple reports from multiple sources tying the Sox with Britton and I don't see it going away until Britton is traded. I like Soria, but if Britton starts pitching back to something resembling his 2016 form, then he's the guy I'd love to see the Sox get. I think you have good ideas about the Sox dumping Pomeranz and Nunez to come up with the financial savings to obtain Britton. I just have trouble believing that any contender is going to take whatever is left of Pomeranz' deal if he hasn't shown that he's back to throwing 92 MPH and isn't batting practice, which is what he's been this year. Can't imagine that Nunez is a must get either for other teams, but if the Sox can somehow finagle this, perhaps they can have their cake and eat it to, if Britton continues to look more like his former self and the Sox can avoid going over the threshhold. What would it cost to get Britton? If I were Baltimore I'd want Shawaryn, Beeks or Poyner, and maybe a lottery ticket like Darwinzon Hernandez. My hope is that Buttrey and Jerez and a lottery ticket would be Britton and that the Sox can somehow financially finagle things to stay under the limit. I would be willing to part with Beeks more than Poyner if need be, though, assuming they don't want Jerez. With Brandon Phillips on the way up and Lin around, they certainly don't need Nunez, and if they get Britton for the pen and Wright or Johnston comes back they certainly don't need Pomeranz - but again I'm assuming we don't see the 2017 version of Pomeranz - I would think other teams think the same thing and pass on him. I don't know whether you saw where I looked for a reliever in his walk year who would be on the market who was having a year better than Hembree -- and discovered there wasn't one.
Soria has an 89 xWPA- and a 103 WPA-. Hembree is 85 and 77. And he can go two innings.
Britton has shown no signs of recovering his form, but if he does, every team who actually needs a reliever will want him.
In the meantime, we're in the position of having to send Thornburg, Brasier, and Velazquez to AAA when and if everyone is healthy. And we've had the second most effective bullpen in MLB (third in WPA, but the #1 A's have a huge clutch differential that's not predictive) and no reason to believe that it won't stay that good.
Even if there were guys better than Hembree available, it would make little or no sense to deal Hembree (which is what you'd have to do, unless you were also willing to send Workman back to AAA, too) and acquire one.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 1:01:43 GMT -5
I like Soria, but if Britton starts pitching back to something resembling his 2016 form, then he's the guy I'd love to see the Sox get. I think you have good ideas about the Sox dumping Pomeranz and Nunez to come up with the financial savings to obtain Britton. I just have trouble believing that any contender is going to take whatever is left of Pomeranz' deal if he hasn't shown that he's back to throwing 92 MPH and isn't batting practice, which is what he's been this year. Can't imagine that Nunez is a must get either for other teams, but if the Sox can somehow finagle this, perhaps they can have their cake and eat it to, if Britton continues to look more like his former self and the Sox can avoid going over the threshhold. What would it cost to get Britton? If I were Baltimore I'd want Shawaryn, Beeks or Poyner, and maybe a lottery ticket like Darwinzon Hernandez. My hope is that Buttrey and Jerez and a lottery ticket would be Britton and that the Sox can somehow financially finagle things to stay under the limit. I would be willing to part with Beeks more than Poyner if need be, though, assuming they don't want Jerez. With Brandon Phillips on the way up and Lin around, they certainly don't need Nunez, and if they get Britton for the pen and Wright or Johnston comes back they certainly don't need Pomeranz - but again I'm assuming we don't see the 2017 version of Pomeranz - I would think other teams think the same thing and pass on him. Britton has shown no signs of recovering his form, but if he does, every team who actually needs a reliever will want him. Britton has been clocked regularly at 94-97 mph the past 2 or 3 appearances. He actually has shown that he is back.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 11, 2018 1:54:10 GMT -5
Ellsbury looked like a potential perennial MVP candidate too after 2011 (even with expected HR/FB regression), but then Reid Brignac had to go destroy Ellsbury’s should with his replacement level rear end. We'll have to disagree there, Ellsbury was never in the class of "best". He wasn't that good a hitter and had poor strike zone judgement which means his lack of walks took from his speed. He also had no arm. We've had several far better players Lynn, Rice, Nomar, Fisk, debatably Evens. He was fun to watch though. I was among the strongest Ells supporters, until FA, but I never saw him equal to Dewey.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 2:56:37 GMT -5
On a roster related note, I hope the Sox call up Bobby Poyner and send down Beeks until the all-star break when Brian Johnson comes back. He deserves to come back up for the time being.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 4:18:35 GMT -5
Simply amazing. I've been a fan since 1980 and only 1 other time in all my fandom have I ever seen the Sox be 35 games above .500, and that occurred on the next to last day of the 2004 season when they were 98-63 and playing in garbage time. The Sox lost the last game of the season which was meaningless and wound up 98-64. This year's team is only 93 games in. The defense was stellar. Velazquez did a solid job. He and Johnson have really stepped up in the emergency starter roles this season. I wasn't overly impressed by Beeks and Workman's fastball doesn't look to crisp, although he has that nasty hook. Barnes was awesome. Kelly looked good and Brasier did a good job. I thought Cora would hold Brasier for tomorrow and go with Thornburg tonight, but maybe the game was still too close? Obviously it's nice to see JBJ doing well offensively, but the thing that I enjoyed most was watching Swihart get two solid knocks while the earth didn't spin off its axis because he was behind the plate. Makes you wonder what they were so scared of. Swihart is starting to swing the bat better and with consistent ABs I think he'd become a solid hitting catcher. But that can't happen if he only catches twice a week or less, which was the case with Vazquez around. It was like Vazquez was holding him back while being very mediocre. You don't want guys to get hurt but this could really work to the Sox' advantage. The pitchers pitch better when they throw to Leon. Leon hasn't been an automatic out at the plate. Swihart could start hitting - I anticipate that after that awful start his numbers will quickly jump ahead of Vazquez and then eventually Leon's. He just needs a chance. And I wouldn't expect Vazquez back until around Sept 1st (I'd expect a rehab to get him to that date), so if Swihart does the job as a backup, somehow he will have survived the year as a Red Sox. Maybe that will be the break that catapults him into a potential starting catching gig for the Sox in 2019. Or at least I hope so At least he's getting something of a chance finally. And to make things even better, the MFYs lost to Baltimore of all teams, so the Sox have some daylight with their 3.5 game lead. I anticipate the Yankees will heat back up, but it's great to see the Sox playing so well. And with Sale going tomorrow, the Sox might boldly go where I've never seen them go before - 36 games above .500! Didn't see this post until now. With Torres and Sanchez out, this is the exact time the Sox should get some room from the Yankees and try to burry them a little before the allstar break is over. Gray is going tomorrow for the Yankees and Sale is going for the Sox (against Colon out of all pitchers). Hopefully the Yankees are 4.5 games behind by the end of tomorrow. I also hoping for Swihart to get a lot more starts too. Not a fan of Vazquez, Swihart has more of a higher ceiling.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 11, 2018 5:28:04 GMT -5
I kept hearing people the sports annoucers saying that Swihart never took advantage of his opportunities. But how can you get in on a couple of at bats then sit on the bench for ten games. Plus Cora had him catch that disaster of a start by Beeks against Detroit who hit lefties great. Also the lineup was not the same lots of players were getting a rest.
They asked Cora about the start Swihart had and he said he trusts him but it’s tough to have a three man catching system. I don’t know about that. I understand that the Yanks keep winning and they don’t have the breathing room. But I bet there happy now they held on to him. There should not be any panic.
I saw Swihart handle like 5 different pitchers tonight. Also slap the ball. He is quick around the bases too. Very deep team. This Sox team is well built.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 11, 2018 6:11:32 GMT -5
We'll have to disagree there, Ellsbury was never in the class of "best". He wasn't that good a hitter and had poor strike zone judgement which means his lack of walks took from his speed. He also had no arm. We've had several far better players Lynn, Rice, Nomar, Fisk, debatably Evens. He was fun to watch though. In 2011 he literally was the best The original post was best pedro's seen in a Sox uniform. If you want to hang your hat on one year on an otherwise coparatively unremarkable time with the Sox, that, I suppose up to you. I don't so I disagree that he's anywhere near the best in a Red Sox uni that I've seen and it's not close.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 11, 2018 7:27:31 GMT -5
Not that he deserved it but how does Beeks not get the win ? I looked it up. This is a new one on me and I watched Yaz in left field when I was a kid. The official scorer can give the win to whoever the official scorer decides was the most effective relief pitcher. I never knew that and I would assume it almost never happens that the official scorer invokes the rule. Not true, it almost always happens that way. Look at Johnson's start just 5 games before, Workman got the win. If the opponent ties or goes ahead then the rule goes back to normal.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 11, 2018 7:35:51 GMT -5
Simply amazing. I've been a fan since 1980 and only 1 other time in all my fandom have I ever seen the Sox be 35 games above .500, and that occurred on the next to last day of the 2004 season when they were 98-63 and playing in garbage time. The Sox lost the last game of the season which was meaningless and wound up 98-64. This year's team is only 93 games in. The defense was stellar. Velazquez did a solid job. He and Johnson have really stepped up in the emergency starter roles this season. I wasn't overly impressed by Beeks and Workman's fastball doesn't look to crisp, although he has that nasty hook. Barnes was awesome. Kelly looked good and Brasier did a good job. I thought Cora would hold Brasier for tomorrow and go with Thornburg tonight, but maybe the game was still too close? Obviously it's nice to see JBJ doing well offensively, but the thing that I enjoyed most was watching Swihart get two solid knocks while the earth didn't spin off its axis because he was behind the plate. Makes you wonder what they were so scared of. Swihart is starting to swing the bat better and with consistent ABs I think he'd become a solid hitting catcher. But that can't happen if he only catches twice a week or less, which was the case with Vazquez around. It was like Vazquez was holding him back while being very mediocre. You don't want guys to get hurt but this could really work to the Sox' advantage. The pitchers pitch better when they throw to Leon. Leon hasn't been an automatic out at the plate. Swihart could start hitting - I anticipate that after that awful start his numbers will quickly jump ahead of Vazquez and then eventually Leon's. He just needs a chance. And I wouldn't expect Vazquez back until around Sept 1st (I'd expect a rehab to get him to that date), so if Swihart does the job as a backup, somehow he will have survived the year as a Red Sox. Maybe that will be the break that catapults him into a potential starting catching gig for the Sox in 2019. Or at least I hope so At least he's getting something of a chance finally. And to make things even better, the MFYs lost to Baltimore of all teams, so the Sox have some daylight with their 3.5 game lead. I anticipate the Yankees will heat back up, but it's great to see the Sox playing so well. And with Sale going tomorrow, the Sox might boldly go where I've never seen them go before - 36 games above .500! Didn't see this post until now. With Torres and Sanchez out, this is the exact time the Sox should get some room from the Yankees and try to burry them a little before the allstar break is over. Gray is going tomorrow for the Yankees and Sale is going for the Sox (against Colon out of all pitchers). Hopefully the Yankees are 4.5 games behind by the end of tomorrow. I also hoping for Swihart to get a lot more starts too. Not a fan of Vazquez, Swihart has more of a higher ceiling. And Gray will be going up against Bundy. Losing 3 out of 4 in Baltimore would be tough to overcome if the Sox sweep.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 11, 2018 8:01:36 GMT -5
In 2011 he literally was the best The original post was best pedro's seen in a Sox uniform. If you want to hang your hat on one year on an otherwise coparatively unremarkable time with the Sox, that, I suppose up to you. I don't so I disagree that he's anywhere near the best in a Red Sox uni that I've seen and it's not close. All of the guys you mentioned in your post also never won a WS and never had a season as great as Ellsbury's 2011.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 11, 2018 8:25:40 GMT -5
Let's not forget this very well could be Mookie's offensive peak as well. This could be his Ellsbury 2011 (though the homers should stay in the 25 hr range no matter what). We'd all like to assume this is who he is now and forever (and I'd put money on it) but this is obviously on another level from his prior success.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 11, 2018 8:51:47 GMT -5
Let's not forget this very well could be Mookie's offensive peak as well. This could be his Ellsbury 2011 (though the homers should stay in the 25 hr range no matter what). We'd all like to assume this is who he is now and forever (and I'd put money on it) but this is obviously on another level from his prior success. I agree this is his career year but, he's been no slouch. fWARs 4.8, 8.3, 5.4 & (5.6 so far). He's not a one year wonder.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 11, 2018 9:07:12 GMT -5
Let's not forget this very well could be Mookie's offensive peak as well. This could be his Ellsbury 2011 (though the homers should stay in the 25 hr range no matter what). We'd all like to assume this is who he is now and forever (and I'd put money on it) but this is obviously on another level from his prior success. Even if this turns out to be Betts' best season, the comparison with Ellsbury just doesn't hold up because of how good Betts has been in other seasons. The reason Ellsbury's 2011 season was remarkable is that he just never came close to replicating that. It was more like Mike Greenwell in 1988 or whatever. Betts is a 5-8 WAR player having like a 9 (or better!) WAR season. 2011 Ellsbury was a 2-4 WAR player having a 9 WAR season. So Betts going back to his previous level of playing is still a clear All-Star level performer, where Ellsbury went back to just being a pretty good regular. Mookie Betts will very likely surpass Ellsbury in bWAR by the end of this year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 11, 2018 9:09:41 GMT -5
I like Soria, but if Britton starts pitching back to something resembling his 2016 form, then he's the guy I'd love to see the Sox get. I think you have good ideas about the Sox dumping Pomeranz and Nunez to come up with the financial savings to obtain Britton. I just have trouble believing that any contender is going to take whatever is left of Pomeranz' deal if he hasn't shown that he's back to throwing 92 MPH and isn't batting practice, which is what he's been this year. Can't imagine that Nunez is a must get either for other teams, but if the Sox can somehow finagle this, perhaps they can have their cake and eat it to, if Britton continues to look more like his former self and the Sox can avoid going over the threshhold. What would it cost to get Britton? If I were Baltimore I'd want Shawaryn, Beeks or Poyner, and maybe a lottery ticket like Darwinzon Hernandez. My hope is that Buttrey and Jerez and a lottery ticket would be Britton and that the Sox can somehow financially finagle things to stay under the limit. I would be willing to part with Beeks more than Poyner if need be, though, assuming they don't want Jerez. With Brandon Phillips on the way up and Lin around, they certainly don't need Nunez, and if they get Britton for the pen and Wright or Johnston comes back they certainly don't need Pomeranz - but again I'm assuming we don't see the 2017 version of Pomeranz - I would think other teams think the same thing and pass on him. I don't know whether you saw where I looked for a reliever in his walk year who would be on the market who was having a year better than Hembree -- and discovered there wasn't one. Soria has an 89 xWPA- and a 103 WPA-. Hembree is 85 and 77. And he can go two innings.
Britton has shown no signs of recovering his form, but if he does, every team who actually needs a reliever will want him. In the meantime, we're in the position of having to send Thornburg, Brasier, and Velazquez to AAA when and if everyone is healthy. And we've had the second most effective bullpen in MLB (third in WPA, but the #1 A's have a huge clutch differential that's not predictive) and no reason to believe that it won't stay that good. Even if there were guys better than Hembree available, it would make little or no sense to deal Hembree (which is what you'd have to do, unless you were also willing to send Workman back to AAA, too) and acquire one.
I'm not sure if I saw your study or not. It really wouldn't sway me. I've watched the games. I know what the Sox have. I saw Hembree melt down against the Yankees a couple of times. A similarity to David Price would be if you took his numbers against the Yankees out, he'd also look significantly better (and I know Hembree's numbers are good). Well the Sox would be playing either Seattle, NY, Houston, or Cleveland in the playoffs and when I think of a guy I want to come in and protect a 4-3 lead in a hostile environment, Heath Hembree is not who I think of. They're not going to be playing the Rangers, Royals, Angels, etc. I know Hembree is pitching well right now and is very deserving of a post-season roster spot. He, Kelly, and Barnes are locks for the middle spots of the game with Barnes and Kelly getting the higher leverage situations and Hembree probably getting the lengthier earlier pitching assignments. The Red Sox, according to most reports, are on an all out search to find an impact reliever that they trust to protect a close game in crunch time. Perhaps they like Barnes, Kelly, and Hembree a heckuva lot, but they'd feel more comfortable if they had an experienced arm who is higher up on the totem pole than those guys? If they didn't feel similarly I doubt they'd be seriously looking. Maybe the media reports are overblown, but I believe that the bullpen is the #1 area they want to upgrade, regardless of whatever study you're doing. They must feel similarly that they'd prefer a high leverage arm to take the 8th inning or put out a 7th inning fire. At some point the Sox need to have another option that Barnes for the7th, Kelly for the 8th, and Kimbrel for the 9th. It would be nice if Thornburg was that guy, but I don't think that can be counted on. Workman and Brasier are excellent depth. And Hembree is doing a good job of pitching in the 6th and being an alternative in the 7th, but he's not somebody that's going to get the ball in crucial situations in the playoffs. Or I'd hope not anyways. Let him do what he's been doing very well.
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Post by jchang on Jul 11, 2018 9:09:52 GMT -5
Mookie is on a better bWAR-age track the Pedroia. If we disregard Ells two injury years with us, he was probably an all-star calibre until age 29 with 1 elite year, then falling off to above average-to-average. Pedroia had a string of all-star years up to age 32, with 2015 being close to all-star pace at 93 games. Mookie hit the all-star level at age 22, Pedroia at age 24, and Ells at 27. Mookie is well above Ells, and could have a better career than Pedroia. I would rather Mookie stop trying to be a HR-hitter, thinking that this stuff takes a toll on a small body. Let the big boys do that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 11, 2018 9:22:32 GMT -5
I don't know whether you saw where I looked for a reliever in his walk year who would be on the market who was having a year better than Hembree -- and discovered there wasn't one. Soria has an 89 xWPA- and a 103 WPA-. Hembree is 85 and 77. And he can go two innings.
Britton has shown no signs of recovering his form, but if he does, every team who actually needs a reliever will want him. In the meantime, we're in the position of having to send Thornburg, Brasier, and Velazquez to AAA when and if everyone is healthy. And we've had the second most effective bullpen in MLB (third in WPA, but the #1 A's have a huge clutch differential that's not predictive) and no reason to believe that it won't stay that good. Even if there were guys better than Hembree available, it would make little or no sense to deal Hembree (which is what you'd have to do, unless you were also willing to send Workman back to AAA, too) and acquire one.
I'm not sure if I saw your study or not. It really wouldn't sway me. I've watched the games. I know what the Sox have. I saw Hembree melt down against the Yankees a couple of times. A similarity to David Price would be if you took his numbers against the Yankees out, he'd also look significantly better (and I know Hembree's numbers are good). Well the Sox would be playing either Seattle, NY, Houston, or Cleveland in the playoffs and when I think of a guy I want to come in and protect a 4-3 lead in a hostile environment, Heath Hembree is not who I think of. They're not going to be playing the Rangers, Royals, Angels, etc. I know Hembree is pitching well right now and is very deserving of a post-season roster spot. He, Kelly, and Barnes are locks for the middle spots of the game with Barnes and Kelly getting the higher leverage situations and Hembree probably getting the lengthier earlier pitching assignments. The Red Sox, according to most reports, are on an all out search to find an impact reliever that they trust to protect a close game in crunch time. Perhaps they like Barnes, Kelly, and Hembree a heckuva lot, but they'd feel more comfortable if they had an experienced arm who is higher up on the totem pole than those guys? If they didn't feel similarly I doubt they'd be seriously looking. Maybe the media reports are overblown, but I believe that the bullpen is the #1 area they want to upgrade, regardless of whatever study you're doing. They must feel similarly that they'd prefer a high leverage arm to take the 8th inning or put out a 7th inning fire. At some point the Sox need to have another option that Barnes for the7th, Kelly for the 8th, and Kimbrel for the 9th. It would be nice if Thornburg was that guy, but I don't think that can be counted on. Workman and Brasier are excellent depth. And Hembree is doing a good job of pitching in the 6th and being an alternative in the 7th, but he's not somebody that's going to get the ball in crucial situations in the playoffs. Or I'd hope not anyways. Let him do what he's been doing very well. I get the roster crunch stuff and decent to good pitchers like Velazquez, Workman, and Brasier are going to get caught in it, but it's only for about a month, and injuries do happen. I'm amazed that Johnson, Velazquez and Swihart have survived being on the roster this long. What has made the Sox great this year is being able to fill in the end of the pen or have a 6/7/8 starting pitcher be a guy who is better than replacement level. The 2018 Red Sox have had great depth, which has served them very well during the season. However in October, it's about putting your best 25 on the roster. If I had to guess the pitchers, you'd have to pick 4 among Sale, Porcello, E-Rod, Price, and Wright (and like you I'm cool with Price being in the pen if he is indeed their 5th best starting pitcher). You'd probably have 7 relievers including Price if he doesn't make the rotation. If Wright isn't in the rotation I don't think he comes out of the pen (that would mean most likely he wasn't healthy and/or effective). So you have Kimbrel, reliever to be acquired, Barnes, Kelly, Hembree, and 2 spots to be determined which may or may not include Price and would have Workman, Thornburg, Pomeranz, and even Velazquez or Brasier as possibilities.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 11, 2018 10:02:36 GMT -5
Ellsbury looked like a potential perennial MVP candidate too after 2011 (even with expected HR/FB regression), but then Reid Brignac had to go destroy Ellsbury’s should with his replacement level rear end. We'll have to disagree there, Ellsbury was never in the class of "best". He wasn't that good a hitter and had poor strike zone judgement which means his lack of walks took from his speed. He also had no arm. We've had several far better players Evans, Lynn, Rice, Nomar, Fisk. He was fun to watch though. Fixed that one for you. Dwight Evans belongs at the top of that list. He was that good. And Betts has accumulated about the same value as Ellsbury has in his entire career - in less than half the time. He will easily surpass him this year, and he's on track to surpass all those players if he stays healthy.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 11, 2018 11:38:44 GMT -5
In 2011 he literally was the best The original post was best pedro's seen in a Sox uniform. If you want to hang your hat on one year on an otherwise coparatively unremarkable time with the Sox, that, I suppose up to you. I don't so I disagree that he's anywhere near the best in a Red Sox uni that I've seen and it's not close. But my whole point was that the first year after Ellsbury broke out in a big way, he had a major injury, so we don’t know what could have been. If he came close to replicating that he would have been insane too. I’m not arguing that he ended up anywhere close to one of the best Sox players we’ve seen.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 11, 2018 12:37:46 GMT -5
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Post by jchang on Jul 11, 2018 12:59:18 GMT -5
The original post was best pedro's seen in a Sox uniform. If you want to hang your hat on one year on an otherwise coparatively unremarkable time with the Sox, that, I suppose up to you. I don't so I disagree that he's anywhere near the best in a Red Sox uni that I've seen and it's not close. But my whole point was that the first year after Ellsbury broke out in a big way, he had a major injury, so we don’t know what could have been. If he came close to replicating that he would have been insane too. I’m not arguing that he ended up anywhere close to one of the best Sox players we’ve seen. Ells big year was at age 27, the next year he was injured, then put up bWAR 5.7 at age 29, which is pretty good. After that he was in declined (and fortunately the MFY helped us avoid giving him an overpay contract). Given that Mookie is putting up the elite WAR values at 22/23, there should greater likelihood of an extended all-star career.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 11, 2018 13:07:35 GMT -5
I don't know whether you saw where I looked for a reliever in his walk year who would be on the market who was having a year better than Hembree -- and discovered there wasn't one. Soria has an 89 xWPA- and a 103 WPA-. Hembree is 85 and 77. And he can go two innings.
Britton has shown no signs of recovering his form, but if he does, every team who actually needs a reliever will want him. In the meantime, we're in the position of having to send Thornburg, Brasier, and Velazquez to AAA when and if everyone is healthy. And we've had the second most effective bullpen in MLB (third in WPA, but the #1 A's have a huge clutch differential that's not predictive) and no reason to believe that it won't stay that good. Even if there were guys better than Hembree available, it would make little or no sense to deal Hembree (which is what you'd have to do, unless you were also willing to send Workman back to AAA, too) and acquire one.
I'm not sure if I saw your study or not. It's not a study. It's just a simple metric that combines xFIP- (which combines K rate, BB rate, and GB% into one number) with BABIP and HR/FB into one even more comprehensive number, and then scales it like it was xFIP- or ERA-. You definitely didn't see my post with these numbers, because the argument was not that Heath Hembree was particularly good. He's a solid tick above average. He's not a guy who you would ever pitch in high-leverage in a key game, unless you had too. The point I was making that no one available as a rental was even as good as Heath Hembree. The names being tossed out as bullpen solutions are guys who have been below average this year. BTW, Hembree's two Yankee meltdowns came in a 3-day span. One of them came in low leverage; I don't see why protecting a 4 run lead in the 7th in NYC is a higher pressure situation than protecting a 2-run lead in the 7th in Houston, which he did beautifully three weeks later. He has no career or 2018 split for being bad in the clutch. You want an explanation that's other than random for his meltdowns in the Bidet, he had a fight with his wife.
Actually, Hembree is in a battle with Thornburg and Brasier for the last spot in the playoff bullpen, if everyone is healthy.
No. No team in MLB has a better end-of-game trio than Kimbrel, Kelly, and Barnes, and the team certainly knows that. Furthermore, unless we continue to have two SP on the DL, we'll be adding either Price or Pomeranz, and if everyone is healthy we're adding both of them. That's enough to pass the Yankees for the best pwn in MLB even without adding a body.
What DDo is apparently doing -- and it's rather a brilliant idea -- is based on the fact that two of those three guys will be free agents. One is certainly leaving. So what he's hoping to do now is to trade for Craig Kimbrel's replacement (in terms of number of bodies), or Joe Kelly's (in terms of role), now, two months earlier, rather than in the winter. That way you go into next year with Kelly, Barnes, and X and you let them battle for the closer job in ST. (And if Thornburg or Brasier establish themselves as quality set-up men, you can let Kelly walk. You don't have that option without adding X.) Oh, and as a bonus, you turn the best bullpen in the playoffs into a ridonculuous monster bullpen.
Yes. But not this year. Next year.
Totally agree on all of this.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 13:07:57 GMT -5
But my whole point was that the first year after Ellsbury broke out in a big way, he had a major injury, so we don’t know what could have been. If he came close to replicating that he would have been insane too. I’m not arguing that he ended up anywhere close to one of the best Sox players we’ve seen. Ells big year was at age 27, the next year he was injured, then put up bWAR 5.7 at age 29, which is pretty good. After that he was in declined (and fortunately the MFY helped us avoid giving him an overpay contract). Given that Mookie is putting up the elite WAR values at 22/23, there should greater likelihood of an extended all-star career. That and Mookie's lack of injury helps too. People who tend to get gurt a lot tend to stay hurt a lot.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 11, 2018 14:40:28 GMT -5
I'm not sure if I saw your study or not. It's not a study. It's just a simple metric that combines xFIP- (which combines K rate, BB rate, and GB% into one number) with BABIP and HR/FB into one even more comprehensive number, and then scales it like it was xFIP- or ERA-. You definitely didn't see my post with these numbers, because the argument was not that Heath Hembree was particularly good. He's a solid tick above average. He's not a guy who you would ever pitch in high-leverage in a key game, unless you had too. The point I was making that no one available as a rental was even as good as Heath Hembree. The names being tossed out as bullpen solutions are guys who have been below average this year. BTW, Hembree's two Yankee meltdowns came in a 3-day span. One of them came in low leverage; I don't see why protecting a 4 run lead in the 7th in NYC is a higher pressure situation than protecting a 2-run lead in the 7th in Houston, which he did beautifully three weeks later. He has no career or 2018 split for being bad in the clutch. You want an explanation that's other than random for his meltdowns in the Bidet, he had a fight with his wife.
Actually, Hembree is in a battle with Thornburg and Brasier for the last spot in the playoff bullpen, if everyone is healthy.
No. No team in MLB has a better end-of-game trio than Kimbrel, Kelly, and Barnes, and the team certainly knows that. Furthermore, unless we continue to have two SP on the DL, we'll be adding either Price or Pomeranz, and if everyone is healthy we're adding both of them. That's enough to pass the Yankees for the best pwn in MLB even without adding a body.
What DDo is apparently doing -- and it's rather a brilliant idea -- is based on the fact that two of those three guys will be free agents. One is certainly leaving. So what he's hoping to do now is to trade for Craig Kimbrel's replacement (in terms of number of bodies), or Joe Kelly's (in terms of role), now, two months earlier, rather than in the winter. That way you go into next year with Kelly, Barnes, and X and you let them battle for the closer job in ST. (And if Thornburg or Brasier establish themselves as quality set-up men, you can let Kelly walk. You don't have that option without adding X.) Oh, and as a bonus, you turn the best bullpen in the playoffs into a ridonculuous monster bullpen.
Yes. But not this year. Next year.
Totally agree on all of this. OK. So we're agreeing that Hembree has done a good job this year and we agree that he's best used in the role Cora has been using him. Your point is that there's nobody out there the Sox can acquire who is better than what the Sox have? And that the formula is basically Barnes in the 7th, Kelly in the 8th, and Kimbrel in the 9th and nobody is better. And they don't need any other options than what they have on their roster currently? That I don't agree with. In a perfect world I would have liked Herrera. Didn't happen. I still like Soria and I want to see more of Britton. Honestly I think Houston and NY have better bullpens right now. I don't think it's necessarily head and shoulders but the Yanks have a strong bullpen of their own with Chapman, Betances, Robertson, Green, and Warren. The Astros have Giles (who for some reason isn't as good as he should be), Rondon, Devenski, Harris, and I feel like I'm missing somebody, and they're going to upgrade. The Sox need to either close the gap or keep up. If you look at Britton's current numbers they're not impressive. He's coming back from an injury and from the reports I've read he's been improving pretty much with each outing. If he gets anywhere near what he was, that's a valuable pitcher. Put it to you like this. I like the chances of Britton getting closer to his best form than I do Pomeranz who right now still can't even get AAA hitters out and doesn't have his velocity. At this point I don't count on him. And unfortunately I can't pencil Wright into a rotation spot and relegate Price to the post-season bullpen as much as I'd love to. And even if Price winds up in the pen, that doesn't necessarily mean we get 2017 post-season Price. One of the things I've always wondered about is does Price's crappy post-season outings coincide with the fact that he is probably maxing out at his innings limitations by the time October rolls around. Last year Price came back with very little innings under his belt. Maybe that factored into his success? I don't know, but I'd be interested in seeing what Price can do in the pen, provided that Wright is healthy and effective enough to start. That's too much of an unknown right now. I honestly think that Hembree does have a spot in the post-season pen, along with Kelly, Barnes, Kimbrel, and trade acquisition to be named later, That's 9 spots that I think are locked down. Maybe Wright becomes the 10th while pushing Price to the pen, and then it's a fight among Thornburg, Workman, Pomeranz, Velazquez, Brasier, etc for that 11th spot. In a perfect world, I would think the Sox want Thornburg to grab it and start getting back to 2016 form to give them along high leverage RH reliever. I think in their perfect world scenario Thornburg becomes like their RH high leverage reliever acquisition and perhaps Britton gives them the high leverage lefty they'd like. I just don't know that you can count on Thornburg at this point. He'll be given the chance, though, and there's still time for him. As far as 2019 goes I'm in the minority that would probably spend the money on Kimbrel. I think he's a HOFer who still has 3 or 4 good years left, but I get why there would be dissenting opinions. I'd probably let Kelly walk.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 15:01:15 GMT -5
On a roster related note, I hope the Sox call up Bobby Poyner and send down Beeks until the all-star break when Brian Johnson comes back. He deserves to come back up for the time being. Robby Scott was brought up instead. Ohh well.
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