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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jul 4, 2023 9:41:17 GMT -5
When Duran had 4 doubles the other day, how many were legitimate doubles that almost anyone would have, and how many were singles for most players that he ran into doubles?
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Post by manfred on Jul 4, 2023 9:59:23 GMT -5
When Duran had 4 doubles the other day, how many were legitimate doubles that almost anyone would have, and how many were singles for most players that he ran into doubles? One was about quarter of an inch from being a home run. I think at least one other was an anyone-double.
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Post by jmei on Jul 5, 2023 7:32:52 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Jul 5, 2023 7:51:43 GMT -5
Every Day Duran, please, Mr. Cora.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 5, 2023 23:51:04 GMT -5
Credit Bloom for not giving up and Cora too. I have to mention Bello every season you know Pedro is gonna spend time with the kid give him some game. Imagine a HOF spending personal time with you. So much knowledge . He also had a burning of desire to prove Lasorda wrong. The Dodgers wrong. I mean Pedro when he was starting in the minors .
I love it when Duran can do stuff like that a terror on the basepaths. We rarely enjoy that part of the game. I mean to see it on our guys feels so good
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 14:09:26 GMT -5
Duran's BABIP is .429, which probably isn't sustainable - but between the hard hit balls and his speed, feels like his BABIP is just generally going to be high?
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 13, 2023 2:24:00 GMT -5
Go back to page 34 if you want a good laugh. 😂
Then go to the last post on page of 35!!!!
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zoot
Rookie
Posts: 50
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Post by zoot on Jul 14, 2023 7:10:17 GMT -5
Hilarious.
It’s interesting - some of the most vigorous naysayers have been remarkably silent during his resurgence. More seriously, it underscores how even the most experienced and insightful forum participants don’t have all of the necessary information to make a meaningful forecast of performance.
Despite all of that, I have a funny feeling about Duran. I just don’t think it’s going to end well if he gets into a prolonged slump, which happens to every position player sooner or later. The thing that sticks in my mind is how he dealt with the poor performance in 2022 during this last off season. I would’ve expected a re-dedication to addressing the flaws in his game, extensive work with personal trainers and performance specialists, etc.. Instead, if I’m recalling correctly he spent a good part of the off-season hanging out with his buddies where he didn’t have to deal with any negativity.. I’m not sure that’s exactly what the organization is looking for, despite his strong performance to date.
You can point to me as Joe Btfsplk. I can take it.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 14, 2023 7:29:54 GMT -5
Hilarious.
It’s interesting - some of the most vigorous naysayers have been remarkably silent during his resurgence. More seriously, it underscores how even the most experienced and insightful forum participants don’t have all of the necessary information to make a meaningful forecast of performance.
Despite all of that, I have a funny feeling about Duran. I just don’t think it’s going to end well if he gets into a prolonged slump, which happens to every position player sooner or later. The thing that sticks in my mind is how he dealt with the poor performance in 2022 during this last off season. I would’ve expected a re-dedication to addressing the flaws in his game, extensive work with personal trainers and performance specialists, etc.. Instead, if I’m recalling correctly he spent a good part of the off-season hanging out with his buddies where he didn’t have to deal with any negativity.. I’m not sure that’s exactly what the organization is looking for, despite his strong performance to date.
You can point to me as Joe Btfsplk. I can take it. Baseball is a mental game, sometimes hanging out with the broskis is the best medicine.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 14, 2023 7:38:44 GMT -5
Hilarious.
It’s interesting - some of the most vigorous naysayers have been remarkably silent during his resurgence. More seriously, it underscores how even the most experienced and insightful forum participants don’t have all of the necessary information to make a meaningful forecast of performance.
Despite all of that, I have a funny feeling about Duran. I just don’t think it’s going to end well if he gets into a prolonged slump, which happens to every position player sooner or later. The thing that sticks in my mind is how he dealt with the poor performance in 2022 during this last off season. I would’ve expected a re-dedication to addressing the flaws in his game, extensive work with personal trainers and performance specialists, etc.. Instead, if I’m recalling correctly he spent a good part of the off-season hanging out with his buddies where he didn’t have to deal with any negativity.. I’m not sure that’s exactly what the organization is looking for, despite his strong performance to date.
You can point to me as Joe Btfsplk. I can take it. Time will tell but he was brutal in his first few cups of coffee in the majors and had the mental ability to turn it around this year and he has had a slump this year and turned it around so I think he'll be alright overall. Let's be honest though he's probably not a .320 BA type hitter and he's not going to BABIP .429 forever but he can still be a valuable OF for this team for years to come so long as the defensive improvements he's shown this year aren't a mirage.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 14, 2023 7:46:33 GMT -5
I’ll get killed for this but the most important question is do we sell super high now? Or did rule changes and development turn him into something for the long term?
His BABIP is sky high… that’s worrisome a bit
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 14, 2023 8:34:05 GMT -5
I’ll get killed for this but the most important question is do we sell super high now? Or did rule changes and development turn him into something for the long term? His BABIP is sky high… that’s worrisome a bit Durans BABIP is high and likely comes down, but guys who make hard contact and have speed are going to have higher BABIPs than normal so, it's not like he's getting lucky right now; Duran is hitting the ball. Also, his speed in todays game and much improved defense put a higher floor on him giving him ample opportunity to work through slumps. Imagine if we were witnessing the same Duran but his defense was still subpar? to me, even having average defense in CF is a real game changer. Given the unlikely drastic improvements he's made the last year out there one wonders.....can he get even better?
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 14, 2023 8:36:40 GMT -5
I’ll get killed for this but the most important question is do we sell super high now? Or did rule changes and development turn him into something for the long term? His BABIP is sky high… that’s worrisome a bit I think it's always worth exploring what guys are worth. If you can get a haul for Duran it should be considered. But I think there is virtually no chance of it happening, the tools Duran has showed are too enticing to send away. Power/speed OF are incredibly valuable. Add in that he is under contract for 5 more seasons and still in pre-arb and I don't see how the guy gets moved.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 14, 2023 9:09:43 GMT -5
I’ll get killed for this but the most important question is do we sell super high now? Or did rule changes and development turn him into something for the long term? His BABIP is sky high… that’s worrisome a bit Durans BABIP is high and likely comes down, but guys who make hard contact and have speed are going to have higher BABIPs than normal so, it's not like he's getting lucky right now; Duran is hitting the ball. Also, his speed in todays game and much improved defense put a higher floor on him giving him ample opportunity to work through slumps. Imagine if we were witnessing the same Duran but his defense was still subpar? to me, even having average defense in CF is a real game changer. Given the unlikely drastic improvements he's made the last year out there one wonders.....can he get even better? This I 100 percent agree with, the defensive improvements raise his floor so much assuming they aren't a mirage. His speed is a game changer as well. I always had a bit of an inclination that if given enough time and reps at the ML level the guys bat would play just fine at CF it was his defense that was the issue. I really don't see why he can't be at the very least an average ML CF with some years of above average going forward on a nice cheap salary which is a very big development to the ML roster in my opinion.
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Post by costpet on Jul 14, 2023 10:06:35 GMT -5
He's the only player in the lineup that I can hardly wait to see come up. Used to be Devers, but not so much anymore.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 14, 2023 11:29:26 GMT -5
i really think that he’s going to keep getting better. The kid puts in the work. We’ve got him under control a while no reason to trade him imo. Our farm OF is just too young to open up a need there unless we’re getting a top of the line starter in return.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 14, 2023 16:10:32 GMT -5
seeing Casas on that list makes me hate him less.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 15, 2023 10:15:43 GMT -5
I’ll get killed for this but the most important question is do we sell super high now? Or did rule changes and development turn him into something for the long term? His BABIP is sky high… that’s worrisome a bit Durans BABIP is high and likely comes down, but guys who make hard contact and have speed are going to have higher BABIPs than normal so, it's not like he's getting lucky right now; Duran is hitting the ball. Also, his speed in todays game and much improved defense put a higher floor on him giving him ample opportunity to work through slumps. Imagine if we were witnessing the same Duran but his defense was still subpar? to me, even having average defense in CF is a real game changer. Given the unlikely drastic improvements he's made the last year out there one wonders.....can he get even better? I have to disagree with this. While it should be higher than others it will be substantially lower than it is right now in the long run which is a cause for concern. Ellsbury was faster with good LD rates and his BABIP was way lower He is for sure a big trade trip to possibly cash in on in the off-season. I’d very much make him available for the Burnes or woodruff’s of the world. (Pointing them out because the brewers definitely sell one in the off-season) His outlier season (so far this year) and with Rafaela behind him and Duvall possibly still singable in a short term deal… I would be all For cashing in on duran if it meant a higher end pitcher
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 15, 2023 10:44:09 GMT -5
Durans BABIP is high and likely comes down, but guys who make hard contact and have speed are going to have higher BABIPs than normal so, it's not like he's getting lucky right now; Duran is hitting the ball. Also, his speed in todays game and much improved defense put a higher floor on him giving him ample opportunity to work through slumps. Imagine if we were witnessing the same Duran but his defense was still subpar? to me, even having average defense in CF is a real game changer. Given the unlikely drastic improvements he's made the last year out there one wonders.....can he get even better? I have to disagree with this. While it should be higher than others it will be substantially lower than it is right now in the long run which is a cause for concern. Ellsbury was faster with good LD rates and his BABIP was way lower He is for sure a big trade trip to possibly cash in on in the off-season. I’d very much make him available for the Burnes or woodruff’s of the world. (Pointing them out because the brewers definitely sell one in the off-season) His outlier season (so far this year) and with Rafaela behind him and Duvall possibly still singable in a short term deal… I would be all For cashing in on duran if it meant a higher end pitcher I'm surprised by Duran's season. I knew he had the talent but I didn't think he'd get to it. I think he has a very thin line of what separates the guy who struggled before to the guy who has been exciting to watch. Everybody slumps but he looked like he was going to strike out every time he looked so bad, but to his credit he pulled himself out and resumed being a holy terror. He must have made some adjustment of some sort to pull himself out of his slump. Despite a bit of a concern that he could revert back, my thought is to hang on to him, realize that he has been able to successfully make adjustments to unlock his potential and then sit back and enjoy the most electrifying player on the team. He can do things nobody else really can. He screws with other teams defenses and manufactures runs that other teams cant do. I would like to see him work on his bunting because an infield single or forced error results with him stealing 2b and then finding his way around the bases. I want no part of parting with a disruptive force like Duran even for a Brewers pitcher. The Sox need pitching. The free agent market is flush with top line starters and the Sox should be flush with cash. Hang onto Duran, lead him off, and let him discombobulate the other team and sign a free agent starter instead.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 15, 2023 15:03:57 GMT -5
Duran now has a .430 BABIP.
If he's able to keep this up for another 246 plate appearances then he would qualify for the 6th highest BABIP of all-time behind Ty Cobb (.444 in 1911), Ross Barnes (.438 in 1876), Tip O'Neill (.437 in 1887), Joe Jackson (.434 in 1911) and Hugh Duffy (.433 in 1894).
Since 1925 there have been 6 instances of a player surpassing a .400 BABIP: Michael Comforto (.412 in 2020), Rod Carew (.408 in 1977), Yoan Moncada (.406 in 2019), Jose Hernandez (.404 in 2002), Manny Ramirez (.403 in 2000) and Roberto Clemento (.403 in 1967)
The Red Sox record for a season is held by Tris Speaker (.397 in 1912) although Reggie Jefferson had a .408 BABIP in 418 PA in 1996 and Hugh Duffy holds the record for a Boston player as a member of the Beaneaters (now Braves).
To qualify for a batting title a player requires 3.1 PA per team game - typically 502 PA in 2023.
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Post by dangermike on Jul 16, 2023 19:57:26 GMT -5
Duran now has a .430 BABIP. If he's able to keep this up for another 246 plate appearances then he would qualify for the 6th highest BABIP of all-time behind Ty Cobb (.444 in 1911), Ross Barnes (.438 in 1876), Tip O'Neill (.437 in 1887), Joe Jackson (.434 in 1911) and Hugh Duffy (.433 in 1894). Since 1925 there have been 6 instances of a player surpassing a .400 BABIP: Michael Comforto (.412 in 2020), Rod Carew (.408 in 1977), Yoan Moncada (.406 in 2019), Jose Hernandez (.404 in 2002), Manny Ramirez (.403 in 2000) and Roberto Clemento (.403 in 1967) The Red Sox record for a season is held by Tris Speaker (.397 in 1912) although Reggie Jefferson had a .408 BABIP in 418 PA in 1996 and Hugh Duffy holds the record for a Boston player as a member of the Beaneaters (now Braves). To qualify for a batting title a player requires 3.1 PA per team game - typically 502 PA in 2023. Is this uptick a uniquely Jarren Duran thing? It would seem like the change in defensive positioning would most benefit players like Duran - speed to beat out throws without the extra defender. Feels like BABIP should be up league wide
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 16, 2023 20:53:48 GMT -5
I view Duran as a rich man's Brett Gardner (speed, athleticism, physique (except Jarred has a neck), but mostly the ability to spray line drives over the entire field (where rich man comes in, Jarred hits the ball harder).
I looked at Gardner's age 26 season, his BABIP was .063 higher than his BA.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,121
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Post by cdj on Jul 16, 2023 21:51:26 GMT -5
I view Duran as a rich man's Brett Gardner (speed, athleticism, physique (except Jarred has a neck), but mostly the ability to spray line drives over the entire field (where rich man comes in, Jarred hits the ball harder). I looked at Gardner's age 26 season, his BABIP was .063 higher than his BA. Much better hair
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jul 16, 2023 22:32:26 GMT -5
I view Duran as a rich man's Brett Gardner (speed, athleticism, physique (except Jarred has a neck), but mostly the ability to spray line drives over the entire field (where rich man comes in, Jarred hits the ball harder). I looked at Gardner's age 26 season, his BABIP was .063 higher than his BA. If his fielding holds up, I view him as Jacoby Ellsbury II.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 17, 2023 1:58:28 GMT -5
I view Duran as a rich man's Brett Gardner (speed, athleticism, physique (except Jarred has a neck), but mostly the ability to spray line drives over the entire field (where rich man comes in, Jarred hits the ball harder). I looked at Gardner's age 26 season, his BABIP was .063 higher than his BA. If his fielding holds up, I view him as Jacoby Ellsbury II. Jacoby needed a bucket brigade to get the ball to the infield and didn't hit line drives over the entire field. Counting stats, maybe so. ADD: Career fWAR Gardner 38.5 Ellsbury 30.1 lol, I like mine better (with the harder hits). Career, I'd take either.
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