|
Post by larrycook on Feb 3, 2014 8:35:25 GMT -5
He does not have Kershaw's base stuff and that reference is unfair to him IMO. Probably unfair comparison for all but a hand full of pitchers on the planet. Owens is what he is! This year is a big year for him being that it is a difficult leap to make for most prospects. We shall see how he handles it and how the hitters adjust to him.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,939
|
Post by ericmvan on Feb 3, 2014 10:32:28 GMT -5
You're saying "he's a unique talent" based on seven years of stats? Rare enough that you'll never get enough comps to be meaningful. After all, Skaggs is similar -- his potential plus-plus pitch is the curve, not the change, and Owens' curve is better than Skaggs' change. Skaggs is tall and throws somewhat harder, Owens is taller. So, we can go back another twenty years and maybe find a couple of other roughly similar guys ... I didn't say he was "really unique."
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Feb 5, 2014 13:50:53 GMT -5
Actually that's not fully correct.
The real criticism is that he's striking minor league hitters out with a pitch, a changeup, that many minor league hitters haven't learned to account for yet. Major league hitters, as Buccholz found out, can hit that pitch.
I don't think it's a case of dumb evaluators who are in love with high velocity pitchers and hence giving Owens the short shrift because he doesn't throw as hard. I think it's a case of Owens not having a great fastball right now.
To have a high strikeout rate in the majors you need to have a plus fastball. You either need to have the capability for great velocity like Schrezer, great movement like Annibal Sanchez, great command, or some combination of that like Darvish.
Owens doesn't have great velocity, doesn't have great command, and unless I am missing something doesn't have great movement. That is why evaluators don't think that he's going to strike out as many in the majors as he has in the minors.
Statistics in the minors generally give you outcomes, but it is also important how you get to those outcomes.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2014 14:02:59 GMT -5
Actually that's not fully correct. The real criticism is that he's striking minor league hitters out with a pitch, a changeup, that many minor league hitters haven't learned to account for yet. Major league hitters, as Buccholz found out, can hit that pitch.
I don't think it's a case of dumb evaluators who are in love with high velocity pitchers and hence giving Owens the short shrift because he doesn't throw as hard. I think it's a case of Owens not having a great fastball right now. To have a high strikeout rate in the majors you need to have a plus fastball. You either need to have the capability for great velocity like Schrezer, great movement like Annibal Sanchez, great command, or some combination of that like Darvish. Owens doesn't have great velocity, doesn't have great command, and unless I am missing something doesn't have great movement. That is why evaluators don't think that he's going to strike out as many in the majors as he has in the minors. Statistics in the minors generally give you outcomes, but it is also important how you get to those outcomes. Did you mean curveball instead of changeup? Because that seems more consistent with what I've heard about Owens and what I remember about Buchholz. Otherwise I pretty much agree.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Feb 5, 2014 14:55:34 GMT -5
No I meant changeup. Both ESPN and BP list it as Owens' best secondary pitch. Buccholz had a knockout changeup as well, though he did also have that curve that also gave him some initial success in the majors.
I got from the discussion here and the chats that the two situations were similar. Owens is getting a lot of strikeouts on guys who can't yet hit a changeup or at least messes them up.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Feb 5, 2014 15:00:40 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Feb 5, 2014 15:16:25 GMT -5
So I guess then we are kind of both right.
Whatever the case, he's not striking out 10+ a game without a plus fastball, even if he has a plus changeup and curve.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2014 15:45:47 GMT -5
No I meant changeup. Both ESPN and BP list it as Owens' best secondary pitch. Buccholz had a knockout changeup as well, though he did also have that curve that also gave him some initial success in the majors. I got from the discussion here and the chats that the two situations were similar. Owens is getting a lot of strikeouts on guys who can't yet hit a changeup or at least messes them up. Well, let me elaborate here. It's not the quality of Owens change that concerns me... With Buchholz, he did lean heavily on the changup, but that wasn't really his problem. That was a badass pitch from the start and he continues to use it successfully to this day. The issue was more that his fastball had plenty of velo but no movement, and his curveball was a big slow breaker that fooled minor leaguers consistently but that major leaguers learned to lay off of pretty quickly. A great change isn't enough when you can get the fastball over for strikes and no one is chasing the curve. It might be a similar situation with Owens. Most people seem to agree that his changeup is his best pitch, at least in terms of major league projection. But man does not live by changeup alone, and like Buchholz, he's had a lot of minor league success with a fastball and a curve that may not fool major league hitters. The big, slow curveball he uses in particular isn't a pitch you see having much success at the major league level (in fact you don't see it much at all, probably for good reason).
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Feb 5, 2014 16:28:12 GMT -5
According to Pitch FX his fastball did have plenty of vertical movement. What they did when they sent him back down to the minors was they added a sinker that had more horizontal movement. It looks that because of that and probably increased command his four seam is now a lot more effective than it was. Hitters seem to swing a lot more often than at the sinker as well.
You are correct about the curveball though. When players swung at it in 2008 they missed 25% of the time. But they only swung and missed at the curve overall 8% of the time and he threw it a lot.
As for your analysis of Owens I essentially agree. He needs a fastball that has more movement and command to be even a #2. He won't be able to get 12 swings and misses a night with his changeup and curve.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 5, 2014 16:42:13 GMT -5
Well, slight correction is that it became his best pitch in 2012. BA named it best in the system entering 2013. As for the curve, he likes that really slow one, and that's a pitch that scouts seem to think won't work in the majors.
|
|
|
Post by jchang on Feb 5, 2014 17:13:13 GMT -5
There is aspect I find difficult to reconcile on Owens concerning doubts that his stuff projecting to the MLB level. We have had several high pitching prospects in succession (Barnes, Ranaudo, Pimentel, Kelly) who excelled at the lower level and then experienced difficulties in their first exposure to AA. Owens had no difficulties in 6 games other than known game to game fluctuations.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Feb 5, 2014 17:20:29 GMT -5
Yeah, I remember Parks on the SP podcast mentioning that that that super slow curveball can fool minor leaguers, but major leaguers will either just let it go or hit it a mile (see, e.g., this). When Darvish first got to the majors in 2012, he threw a bunch of slow curves too, but he mostly scrapped them last year in favor of his slider. I think the organization tried to get Owens to scrap the high-60s/low-70s slow curve and focus on the faster variant of his curveball (the one in the mid-70s with tighter break), but he appeared not to have had much success with the faster curve and had gone back to the slow curve by the end of the year. Maybe he'll buck the odds and have success with the slow curve at the MLB level-- it sure does look pretty when it works.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 17, 2014 0:01:41 GMT -5
Interesting tibbit, at least for me, about the Big O. If a heard correctly Lou Merloni said John Farrell was talking up the Big O as a candidate to help this year.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 17, 2014 1:03:13 GMT -5
If you listen to the interview here: soundcloud.com/salem-red-soxHenry basically says he has two curves and which one he uses depends on the swing plane of the batter. The entire interview leaves you with the impression that Henry is a thinker. (LOL, but cocky).
|
|
|
Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Feb 18, 2014 0:59:04 GMT -5
If you listen to the interview here: soundcloud.com/salem-red-soxHenry basically says he has two curves and which one he uses depends on the swing plane of the batter. The entire interview leaves you with the impression that Henry is a thinker. (LOL, but cocky). Had not hear this. Here's a direct link: soundcloud.com/salem-red-sox/henry-owens
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 20, 2014 12:56:01 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 21, 2014 18:02:14 GMT -5
Good to hear this from a RH hitter.
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 2h Jonny Gomes on @howens_BigO (Henry Owens): “It’s there. It’s all there.” Said his height and over-the-top delivery made for tough angles.
also
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 2h J.Gomes on #RedSox pitching prospects: "I want to keep all of those guys but we can get anybody we want. Anybody on the block, we can get."
|
|
|
Post by ancientsoxfogey on Apr 10, 2014 7:14:18 GMT -5
Owens is fascinating to follow. There are some detractors because he does not make the radar gun jump, but they just do not hit him so far. A lot of pitching is a certain feel of what to throw, where to throw it, and how much speed he certainly seems to have that feel ( if you know what I mean). How is his command? I would not b concerned if he does not hit 95. This. I personally will wait for the hitters to tell me when Owens can go no further. So far (in his progression) they have been very quiet.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 10, 2014 9:02:02 GMT -5
There's a lot more to a fastball than velocity. We've all seen Koji blow his 88 mph fastball by everyone.
|
|
|
Post by maxwellsdemon on Apr 10, 2014 9:23:57 GMT -5
There's a lot more to a fastball than velocity. We've all seen Koji blow his 88 mph fastball by everyone. Thank you!! Please repeat this every time someone complains about the lack of velocity of a pitcher who is mowing down professional hitters left and right.
|
|
rjp313jr
Veteran
Posts: 14,046
Member is Online
|
Post by rjp313jr on Apr 10, 2014 9:32:54 GMT -5
There's a lot more to a fastball than velocity. We've all seen Koji blow his 88 mph fastball by everyone. Thank you!! Please repeat this every time someone complains about the lack of velocity of a pitcher who is mowing down professional hitters left and right. No one is complaining about it, but it's a concern. How many top of the rotation starters sit 88-91 with their fastball in MLB? Even more important, how many start their careers there? Also, Koji's fastball command is phenomenal whereas Owens is not. Not to mention Koji pitches 1 inning at a time. No one wants Owens to be a relief pitcher. I'm thrilled with his results but AA hitters aren't in the same world as MLB ones so I care more about his "stuff" than results in AA for a guy we have high hopes for.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 10, 2014 9:34:39 GMT -5
AA is supposed to be a test and so far, for Owens, it hasn't been. There's already been a string of dominant innings this year and last. That has to tell us something.
|
|
rjp313jr
Veteran
Posts: 14,046
Member is Online
|
Post by rjp313jr on Apr 10, 2014 9:50:29 GMT -5
It tells us minor leaguers are helpless against him. If it told us what we want it to tell us, then he should be in Boston's rotation right now.
|
|
rjp313jr
Veteran
Posts: 14,046
Member is Online
|
Post by rjp313jr on Apr 10, 2014 9:53:04 GMT -5
And maybe it does. They need to move him up the ladder again if his next 2 starts go like this. It's a waste of time - what can he work on while dominating? And if he truly is that deceptive then he should be in the majors.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 10, 2014 9:56:13 GMT -5
Thank you!! Please repeat this every time someone complains about the lack of velocity of a pitcher who is mowing down professional hitters left and right. No one is complaining about it, but it's a concern. How many top of the rotation starters sit 88-91 with their fastball in MLB? Even more important, how many start their careers there? 9 of the 30 pitchers with the highest fWAR in 2013 had fastball velocities that have been consistently sub-92 mph. Here are their career and first year in majors velocity numbers: Hisashi Iwakuma: 89.8 mph (career), 90.3 mph (first year in majors) Adam Wainwright: 90.6 mph (career), 91.3 mph (first year in majors) Cliff Lee: 90.4 mph (career), 87.2 mph (first year in majors) Doug Fister: 89 mph (career), 88.2 mph (first year in majors) Jhoulys Chacin: 90.5 mph (career), 90.9 mph (first year in majors) Cole Hamels: 91.1 mph (career), 91.3 mph (first year in majors) Mike Minor: 90.6 mph (career), 90.9 mph (first year in majors) Jose Quintana: 91 mph (career), 90.4 mph (first year in majors) Madison Bumgarner: 91.4 mph (career), 89.2 mph (first year in majors) It's not at all uncommon, and the fact that Owens sits low-90s with his fastball does not mean that he can't be a very good major league starter. (ADD: moved some posts from the Gameday thread)
|
|