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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 10, 2014 10:04:00 GMT -5
If he's sitting low 90s that's great, my impression is he sits high 80s. Average fastball velocity only tells us so much. Guys like Bum, Waino and Hamels can dial it up when they want.
I'm trying to find out if Owens can do the same.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 10, 2014 10:09:08 GMT -5
No one is complaining about it, but it's a concern. How many top of the rotation starters sit 88-91 with their fastball in MLB? Even more important, how many start their careers there? 9 of the 30 pitchers with the highest fWAR in 2013 had fastball velocities that have been consistently sub-92 mph. Here are their career and first year in majors velocity numbers: Hisashi Iwakuma: 89.8 mph (career), 90.3 mph (first year in majors) Adam Wainwright: 90.6 mph (career), 91.3 mph (first year in majors) Cliff Lee: 90.4 mph (career), 87.2 mph (first year in majors) Doug Fister: 89 mph (career), 88.2 mph (first year in majors) Jhoulys Chacin: 90.5 mph (career), 90.9 mph (first year in majors) Cole Hamels: 91.1 mph (career), 91.3 mph (first year in majors) Mike Minor: 90.6 mph (career), 90.9 mph (first year in majors) Jose Quintana: 91 mph (career), 90.4 mph (first year in majors) Madison Bumgarner: 91.4 mph (career), 89.2 mph (first year in majors) It's not at all uncommon, and the fact that Owens sits low-90s with his fastball does not mean that he can't be a very good major league starter. (ADD: moved some posts from the Gameday thread) Nice work and considering they are both big lefties. Cliff Lee might be the comp. I noticed Lee's BB/9 was 4.1 his first full year and has been incredible ever since. www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leecl02.shtml
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 10, 2014 10:09:46 GMT -5
I don't think it's velocity that's the issue, but velocity/command. So far, the combo of those two things (non-elite velocity, sub-par command) that has been the cautionary note about Owens. I think the counter-Owens narrative is this: he can get away with sub-par fastball in the minors because his change is so good, but his curve isn't sharp enough, and his command isn't good enough, to be an elite pitcher in the majors right now.
So, I'm looking more at his strike/ball numbers than his radar gun readings this year. He throws hard enough if he sharpens his command.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 10, 2014 10:10:13 GMT -5
Thank you!! Please repeat this every time someone complains about the lack of velocity of a pitcher who is mowing down professional hitters left and right. No one is complaining about it, but it's a concern. How many top of the rotation starters sit 88-91 with their fastball in MLB? Even more important, how many start their careers there? Also, Koji's fastball command is phenomenal whereas Owens is not. Not to mention Koji pitches 1 inning at a time. No one wants Owens to be a relief pitcher. I'm thrilled with his results but AA hitters aren't in the same world as MLB ones so I care more about his "stuff" than results in AA for a guy we have high hopes for. Rip I agree with you here on both Owens and Koji. Owens' results are very, very impressive statistically at AA. I do recall that we had a couple of soft-tossing minor league lefty starters within the past 10-15 years or so that had very good results through AA. Once they got above that level..."see ya". Owens must have great feel for pitching and he is so tall that probably factors in. But he does not have great command (yet). Also his curve and change were close to the same speed (68-73mph) in games I watched so even though the movement is different, I wonder if that could impact negatively at higher levels too. Anyway, let's enjoy his success!
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Post by jmei on Apr 10, 2014 10:25:01 GMT -5
If he's sitting low 90s that's great, my impression is he sits high 80s. Average fastball velocity only tells us so much. Guys like Bum, Waino and Hamels can dial it up when they want. I'm trying to find out if Owens can do the same. Owens sort of straddles the difference between high-80s and low-90s, and his velocity can be inconsistent. He was 89-91 in Spring Training 2013, 88-90 in August 2013, and 91-93 in July 2013. I don't think the "dial it up" test is that useful (for instance, we tend to exaggerate the velocity of established MLB guys), but even if it is, Owens has touched 94-95, so I don't think he's all that different velocity-wise from Bumgarner and Hamels (both of which max out at around 94-95). Remember, he's still only 21 and might pick up another mph or two as he physically matures. I agree with brianthetaoist that I'm more worried about his fastball command than his fastball velocity. If he's locating his heater down and getting ahead in the count with it, he'll be successful whatever velocity he throws it at. But if he's wild and gets behind hitters, he's not going to be able to blow it by hitters in the zone, and poorly-located 90 mph fastballs get crushed. I'm far more interested in watching his walk rate than checking his velo readings.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 10, 2014 10:29:53 GMT -5
. . . . I do recall that we had a couple of soft-tossing minor league lefty starters within the past 10-15 years or so that had very good results through AA. Once they got above that level..."see ya". True, but I think those were guys that were 23/24/25 and pitched in college. For HO to be doing this at 21 is a bit different. Also, those guys had good results, but didn't dominate the way Owens has. Still, I agree we need to see more. If he can tighten up the curve and improve his command, then I think his velocity will be ok. But he's only 21, why can't he add some more velocity? Not sure if that's in the cards or not, but it would be quite interesting.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 10, 2014 10:33:29 GMT -5
Trade him now while everyone thinks he's a starter. That stuff will only play in short stints out of the pen in MLB.
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Post by jmei on Apr 10, 2014 10:41:50 GMT -5
Owens' results are very, very impressive statistically at AA. I do recall that we had a couple of soft-tossing minor league lefty starters within the past 10-15 years or so that had very good results through AA. Once they got above that level..."see ya". The difference between Owens and guys like Chris Hernandez and Abe Alvarez is that Owens strikes a ton of guys out (30.5% strikeout rate in 2013). Pitchers who dominate by getting a ton of Ks are a lot more interesting than finesse/control/weak contact guys like Hernandez and Alvarez. One other random note on Owens: he's been a fly ball pitcher so far in the minors (just 39.4% GB in 2013, 36.2% in 2012), but he also gets a ton of infield fly balls (10.8% in 2013, 10.9% in 2012; that would rank among the top 30 or so qualified pitchers in baseball last year). That high IFFB rate might be tangible evidence of his deception in action, and an underrated reason for his success in the past few years.
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Post by charliezink16 on Apr 10, 2014 10:53:33 GMT -5
If Owens only tops out at 91 throughout his career, he'll still be fine, as long as he learns to command his pitches. It's not Owens' changeup that makes his fastball so good, it's his deception. The radar gun may say 91, but the hitters pick up the ball a split-second late, and thus see it as 97-98. Owens doesn't need to add velocity to be dominant, he just needs to command his pitches. If he does add a couple MPH though, I'd be ecstatic.
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Post by godot on Apr 10, 2014 11:15:40 GMT -5
If Owens only tops out at 91 throughout his career, he'll still be fine, as long as he learns to command his pitches. It's not Owens' changeup that makes his fastball so good, it's his deception. The radar gun may say 91, but the hitters pick up the ball a split-second late, and thus see it as 97-98. Owens doesn't need to add velocity to be dominant, he just needs to command his pitches. If he does add a couple MPH though, I'd be ecstatic. What he said
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 10, 2014 11:34:05 GMT -5
Owens isn't a "soft-tossing lefty" ... the only way Abe Alvarez would break 90mph is if he went on a joy ride with Drake Britton. That guy was a soft-tossing lefty, throwing 85-87 at best, getting by on guile and finesse, and, yeah, didn't really strike guys out like Owens.
There's some distance between flamethrower and soft-tosser, between Randy Johnson and Abe Alvarez. And that's where Owens is on FB velocity.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 10, 2014 13:44:55 GMT -5
Listen, by saying that I'm interested in his velocity readings, it doesn't mean that it's all I'm concerned about, but the velocity and command go hand in hand. They both need to be monitored and tracked to see how good he can actually be. If his command isn't great, he's going to have a more difficult time with lower velocity.
BTW that Bumgarner 89.2 in his first "year" is extremely misleading. That was over just 10 IP and after that it jumped 2 mph to basically be a little over 91MP each year since. So he's pretty much been a consistent 91MPH average velocity.
It's really not worth digging too much into unless we have real numbers on Owens. There are many different kinds of fastballs that pitchers throw that can affect their average readings. You may not think the ability to dial it up matters, but I do. A lot of pitchers who are successful, pull out extra velocity when the situation calls for it, which helps things. Owens may have hit those numbers in the past, but it doesn't matter unless he can do it whenever he wants to. Not as much as he wants to, but when he wants to. I don't know if he can or can't and that's PART of what I'm trying to learn. It doesn't seem like anyone really knows at this point so we'll just enjoy the results and see how it plays out.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 10, 2014 19:30:59 GMT -5
No matter how you look at it though, the lower walks this year and outstanding results in AA pitching so far at his age are extremely encouraging.
All indicators, just about, are go.
His length ( arm extension towards home plate at the release point ), downward plane and deception all make his fastball that much better.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 10, 2014 20:29:35 GMT -5
No one is complaining about it, but it's a concern. How many top of the rotation starters sit 88-91 with their fastball in MLB? Even more important, how many start their careers there? 9 of the 30 pitchers with the highest fWAR in 2013 had fastball velocities that have been consistently sub-92 mph. Here are their career and first year in majors velocity numbers: Hisashi Iwakuma: 89.8 mph (career), 90.3 mph (first year in majors) Adam Wainwright: 90.6 mph (career), 91.3 mph (first year in majors) Cliff Lee: 90.4 mph (career), 87.2 mph (first year in majors) Doug Fister: 89 mph (career), 88.2 mph (first year in majors) Jhoulys Chacin: 90.5 mph (career), 90.9 mph (first year in majors) Cole Hamels: 91.1 mph (career), 91.3 mph (first year in majors) Mike Minor: 90.6 mph (career), 90.9 mph (first year in majors) Jose Quintana: 91 mph (career), 90.4 mph (first year in majors) Madison Bumgarner: 91.4 mph (career), 89.2 mph (first year in majors) It's not at all uncommon, and the fact that Owens sits low-90s with his fastball does not mean that he can't be a very good major league starter. (ADD: moved some posts from the Gameday thread) Whenever I see these lists I think what they miss is the importance of max velocity as opposed to average velocity. If you regularly throw 91 but can dial it up to 95-96, like Hamels can, that makes a big difference. First off the harder fastball is coming in key situations. Secondly if the batter knows that can come he has to be ready for it which can cause the other pitches to play up. Now as for the low velocity pitchers who are successful as starters, Fister comes to mind, keep in mind also that they also have major sinking action on the ball. I don't know if Owens fastball sinks a lot but if he's throwing in the high 80s he'll need that. That he's giving up a lot of fly balls indicates he doesn't. I do think we need we need to keep from falling in the trap of comparing Hank to Lee because Lee is good and doesn't throw hard.
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Post by awall on Apr 11, 2014 7:22:49 GMT -5
If Owens can have a career like Frank Viola, I'll be happy to watch as many starts as I can.
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Post by raftsox on Apr 11, 2014 7:39:59 GMT -5
I agree with brianthetaoist that I'm more worried about his fastball command than his fastball velocity. If he's locating his heater down and getting ahead in the count with it, he'll be successful whatever velocity he throws it at. But if he's wild and gets behind hitters, he's not going to be able to blow it by hitters in the zone, and poorly-located 90 mph fastballs get crushed. I'm far more interested in watching his walk rate than checking his velo readings. All of this accurately sums up his development path for 2014. I'd also like to see if he can drop that loopy, slow curve for either a hard and tight version or a slider.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2014 9:39:14 GMT -5
I've also always wanted him to learn a cutter.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 11, 2014 10:06:16 GMT -5
The Sox should start to teach the splitter. Bring it back into vogue. With all the TJS going on these days regardless of what you do, I'd rather push the limits as an organization than just play it safe, within reason of course.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 11, 2014 10:06:46 GMT -5
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Post by ibsmith85 on Apr 11, 2014 10:10:13 GMT -5
I've also always wanted him to learn a cutter. And a splitter. The power of Koji compels everyone.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2014 10:52:29 GMT -5
Eh, he already has a plus changeup. A splitter would be a little duplicative.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 11, 2014 12:54:31 GMT -5
Eh, he already has a plus changeup. A splitter would be a little duplicative. But it's trendy. Splitters are the new cutters.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 11, 2014 14:10:13 GMT -5
I'll take a circlefork Gyroball for $50, Alex. We need to fix this before it kills him:
Matt Eddy @matteddyba #RedSox LHP Henry Owens has No. 1 FIP—0.83, from 18 SO, 2 BB, 0 HR in 12.2 IP—among (non-rehabbing) prospects with 7+ IP since Opening Day.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 11, 2014 14:48:39 GMT -5
Agree that I'd love to see Owens add a cutter or harder curve, but I'm not positive it means he should ditch the slow curve entirely. There aren't a ton of pitchers who throw an effective one right now, but that makes those few who do all the more impressive (and fun to watch). Zack Grienke has the most famous one right now, and I've always loved Randy Wolf's.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2014 15:10:34 GMT -5
Yeah, slow curves are damn entertaining, when they work (this one courtesy of Yu Darvish): When they don't, though...
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