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Post by Guidas on Jan 31, 2015 12:33:52 GMT -5
What is Henry's velocity like on his fastball? reports are he sits around 89-91 or so. Apparently can dial it up occasionally to 94ish.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 31, 2015 15:57:50 GMT -5
I don't think he'll strike out as many people in the majors as he has thus far, but I think Owens will be more of a K pitcher than Mulder. It would be great if he can keep the BB/9 as low as Mulder did, but other than being tall lefties with lacking velocity, I don't think its a great comp. Mulder had excellent fastball command which Owen's doesn't have yet. Yes they are both tall lefties with plus secondary pitches and great makeup, but you are right other than that, it's not a great comp. I don't see many other recent comps. Tall lefties, high pedigrees in the minors. Middling fastballs that play up bc of a dominant secondary pitch. HO proved to be an innings eater and MM had higher k rates in the minors. relatively clean deliveries, not great fastball command, cool demeanor, highly touted at young age...think thats more than just tall and left handed handed....don't remember if it was you or the previous comment who daid those were the only similarities
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 31, 2015 16:00:12 GMT -5
Also rusney is a tad different than abreux ichiro etc. He was out of baseball for an extended period and starTed at 26. Didn't have NEAR the track record in his specific lead as Tanaka, Ichiro, Abreu xcetera. Not saying he should win Rookie of the Year is his numbers are great but I think that they are different cases
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 31, 2015 16:49:12 GMT -5
Also rusney is a tad different than abreux ichiro etc. He was out of baseball for an extended period and starTed at 26. Didn't have NEAR the track record in his specific lead as Tanaka, Ichiro, Abreu xcetera. Not saying he should win Rookie of the Year is his numbers are great but I think that they are different cases As far as I'm concerned, a rookie is a rookie is a rookie. Because once you start getting into the "well, he's TECHNICALLY a rookie, BUT" game, you have to start making judgement calls about who's too good, too old, or too experienced to be worthy of the award, and there's no actual rules or definitions for that. Which is why we have rules that determine rookie status in the first place.
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Post by larrycook on Feb 1, 2015 0:21:23 GMT -5
What is Henry's velocity like on his fastball? reports are he sits around 89-91 or so. Apparently can dial it up occasionally to 94ish. Out of all he games I have watched him pitch, the highest I have ever seen was 92 and that was only once or twice. 88 to 90 is where he sat most every time I have seen him. The good news is that he operates low in the strike zone and his ball has movement. I think we learn a lot about mr. Owens this year. If he can get strikes at or below the knees, he will be gold. If he had to bring his ball up to get strikes, he will get killed.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 1, 2015 7:35:46 GMT -5
reports are he sits around 89-91 or so. Apparently can dial it up occasionally to 94ish. Out of all he games I have watched him pitch, the highest I have ever seen was 92 and that was only once or twice. 88 to 90 is where he sat most every time I have seen him. The good news is that he operates low in the strike zone and his ball has movement. I think we learn a lot about mr. Owens this year. If he can get strikes at or below the knees, he will be gold. If he had to bring his ball up to get strikes, he will get killed. Google "Henry Owens fastball" and you will find reports from 2012, 2013, and 2014 that have him "sitting 89-92" or "sitting 89-91" and also touching 94 each year, sometimes a couple of times in a game.
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Post by larrycook on Feb 1, 2015 19:23:49 GMT -5
Out of all he games I have watched him pitch, the highest I have ever seen was 92 and that was only once or twice. 88 to 90 is where he sat most every time I have seen him. The good news is that he operates low in the strike zone and his ball has movement. I think we learn a lot about mr. Owens this year. If he can get strikes at or below the knees, he will be gold. If he had to bring his ball up to get strikes, he will get killed. Google "Henry Owens fastball" and you will find reports from 2012, 2013, and 2014 that have him "sitting 89-92" or "sitting 89-91" and also touching 94 each year, sometimes a couple of times in a game. I don't doubt Google at all. I guess I just picked the wrong games to be at.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 2, 2015 8:42:27 GMT -5
Google "Henry Owens fastball" and you will find reports from 2012, 2013, and 2014 that have him "sitting 89-92" or "sitting 89-91" and also touching 94 each year, sometimes a couple of times in a game. I don't doubt Google at all. I guess I just picked the wrong games to be at. I've added my voice here a few times on this but having seen Owens over parts of two seasons at Portland my recall dovetails Larrycook. One game Owens was 87 to 90 with a low of 86 and a couple that snuck in unexpectedly at 92. I did see a game where he hit 94 but that was so far an aberration from the rest that I wondered if it was more a gun misfire. Last year he did seem a tick higher in the 89-92 range.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 2, 2015 8:49:06 GMT -5
So tired of the radar gun worship. What is really strange is seeing batters swing late at a 90 mph fastball and then look silly trying to hit the changeup in the dirt.
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Post by 111soxfan111 on Feb 2, 2015 11:14:50 GMT -5
So tired of the radar gun worship. What is really strange is seeing batters swing late at a 90 mph fastball and then look silly trying to hit the changeup in the dirt. Right on. There are two things I'll be watching for this year. If he can continue to improve his FB control and bring BB/9 at or under 3 that would be the biggest step forward. Would also be nice to see progress with his curve. His change up is good enough that he could be a de facto two pitch guy but seems like having an average to better curve that he can throw with confidence would give him a lot more room for error when he makes the jump to the majors.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 2, 2015 12:07:58 GMT -5
So tired of the radar gun worship. What is really strange is seeing batters swing late at a 90 mph fastball and then look silly trying to hit the changeup in the dirt. Well, I can understand this. However, the people on this page were responding to a question posed at the top....not worshipping the radar gun.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 2, 2015 15:04:34 GMT -5
So tired of the radar gun worship. What is really strange is seeing batters swing late at a 90 mph fastball and then look silly trying to hit the changeup in the dirt. I'm tired of radar gun contrarianism.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 2, 2015 16:09:08 GMT -5
I don't doubt Google at all. I guess I just picked the wrong games to be at. I've added my voice here a few times on this but having seen Owens over parts of two seasons at Portland my recall dovetails Larrycook. One game Owens was 87 to 90 with a low of 86 and a couple that snuck in unexpectedly at 92. I did see a game where he hit 94 but that was so far an aberration from the rest that I wondered if it was more a gun misfire. Last year he did seem a tick higher in the 89-92 range. I wrote "reportedly" because I don't trust stadium guns so that was just based on various reports. Personally, I think if he hit's anything higher than 92 it's a rare, rear occurrence.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 3, 2015 1:11:18 GMT -5
A few points to make about Owens if we're going to talk about how hard he throws. He won't be 23 until July of this year. It's not unknown to have young pitchers show a bump in their stuff as they get comfortable with their mechanics. He's 6' 7" with long levers. Getting all the parts in sync should allow him to take advantage of that leverage - a possible route to that speed bump.
Laying all that aside, he's at 10.7 K/9 over his minor league career. He's had it at 10+ K/9 at every level, including 10.4 in his short AAA stint. The guy strikes out a ton of batters and he's done it all the way through the minors. We all need to acknowledge this as hard and fast reality. His K rates are special.
Now let's talk about why that might be by looking at the physics of the thing. A lot of analysts focus on the numbers on the gun as the ball arrives at the plate. I believe that's less important than the time a batter has to react - how long he gets to see the pitch and make a decision. As a simplifying assumption, we'll have the ball travel at the same speed from the pitcher to the plate. That isn't the way it works, of course. The ball loses speed as it travels to the batter and the gun number is the plate velocity. Nevertheless, it's a good starting point for a discussion.
Here's the deal: A pitch thrown at 88 mph that has a release point at 54.5' from the plate, takes the same time to travel as one launched 56.5' back at 91 mph. Using the same release points, a 92 mph fastball has the same travel time as one that's 97 95 mph. Given Owens' dimensions, that's probably the difference between his release point and someone who is, say, 6' 1' with shorter arms.
I think this is related to the anecdotal notion that he 'hides the ball'. What it means to me is that it gets on top of hitters quickly. That's what this analysis says (I can post the spreadsheet if anyone is interested).
The gun is useful, but only as a data point in a larger discussion that has to include the reaction time a batter will have to a pitch. I think Owens' effectiveness isn't a fluke at all. It's a function of the short time hitters have to make a decision about his stuff, stuff that everyone says has a lot of movement to it.
There are other issues, such as his improving but still mediocre command. I do think his stuff will play in the majors, though. There aren't many starting pitchers who can strike batters out at that rate, even in the minors.
Add: Rechecked the numbers this morning and I'd read off of the wrong spreadsheet column. The 92 mph pitch has the same travel time as one at 95 mph at those distances.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 3, 2015 16:08:10 GMT -5
Don't have a BP subscription right now, but this article looks pretty relevant to Owens' stuff. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25494I'm going to guess that it eventually explains that knowing about a good changeup creates some subconscious doubt that the next pitch will actually be a 90 mph fastball and can slightly slow down your reaction time.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 3, 2015 17:33:19 GMT -5
Don't have a BP subscription right now, but this article looks pretty relevant to Owens' stuff. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25494I'm going to guess that it eventually explains that knowing about a good changeup creates some subconscious doubt that the next pitch will actually be a 90 mph fastball and can slightly slow down your reaction time. It's not so much the radar gun but command of the fastball. Even a really good changeup is less effective if you aren't throwing your fastball for strikes. If you are throwing it for strikes but don't throw it hard, and are throwing it down Broadway, you had better hope the hitter doesn't guess fastball, else bye bye baseball. The reason why many believe that Owen's won't strike out as many in the majors as he does in the minors is that major league hitters won't swing at fastballs from him that are not strikes and will get ahead in the count more. If he's behind it's going to be harder to throw the changeup.
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Post by jmei on Feb 13, 2015 21:30:28 GMT -5
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Post by cologneredsox on Feb 17, 2015 9:23:00 GMT -5
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 20, 2015 10:59:18 GMT -5
BA's Scout's View video on Hank: www.baseballamerica.com/minors/scouts-video-view-henry-owens/Reflecting the divergence of views in this thread, the video says he could have a ceiling of anywhere between a #2 or #5. However, contrary to radar gun arguments, they pin the key on his developing a consistent release point for improved command and more consistent curveball. I also read a tweet from BA that said that Owens was the most divisive prospect on the list, some loved him, some didn't.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2015 12:09:37 GMT -5
I think they meant that he could end up between a #2 and #5, not that those were best case scenario ceilings. I can't imagine anyone actually believing the best he could ever do in the majors is be a #5 starter.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 20, 2015 13:24:50 GMT -5
I think they meant that he could end up between a #2 and #5, not that those were best case scenario ceilings. I can't imagine anyone actually believing the best he could ever do in the majors is be a #5 starter. Yeah, for sure ... the idea of a range of a ceiling is a contradiction, anyway. If the high end of the ceiling is #2, that's the ceiling. It's more a reflection of the range of opinions that still exist. I think the "news" of it is that there is still a prevalent view that he could be a #2 ... if I lived close to Pawtucket, I'd go see that team all the time, so much interesting stuff to follow there this year.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2015 13:38:46 GMT -5
I think they meant that he could end up between a #2 and #5, not that those were best case scenario ceilings. I can't imagine anyone actually believing the best he could ever do in the majors is be a #5 starter. Yeah, for sure ... the idea of a range of a ceiling is a contradiction, anyway. If the high end of the ceiling is #2, that's the ceiling. It's more a reflection of the range of opinions that still exist. I think the "news" of it is that there is still a prevalent view that he could be a #2 ... if I lived close to Pawtucket, I'd go see that team all the time, so much interesting stuff to follow there this year. Yeah, I'll see them when they come to Durham in July. I saw Owens pitch in the playoff game, not good. But definitely flashed a lot in the first 3 innings. I chalk that up to tired at the end of the season.
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Post by m1keyboots on Feb 20, 2015 21:36:53 GMT -5
So tired of the radar gun worship. What is really strange is seeing batters swing late at a 90 mph fastball and then look silly trying to hit the changeup in the dirt. I don't know if it's fair for someone to inquire about the velocity on a given pitchers' pitches, how he holds that velocity etc, and have it be called radar gun worship. I for one believe it's important to know some of that stuff. If the guy can't hold his velo but can crank it up in short stretches, it's fun to wonder if he can be a dominant lefty out of the pen (if the journey to becoming a starter fails). Or if his curveball is a power breaking ball, as opposed to something on the slower side, one can wonder about if it can evolve into a Wipeout pitch. Obviously velocity is relative to the pitcher, his other pitches, height, stride etc, but asking questions about velocity doesn't always mean the person is ignoring the inning, count, and score during a game and only hoping to see 94+. I just think velocity is something that can tell us a lot about a pitcher, and while far from the only or most important factor in a guys maturation, it's something that is pretty important to discussing a pitcher. Much like "can't react to breaking pitches" is a nice tidbit on a hitter, "can't hold velocity through 3 innings is nice to know about a starter. I'm sure other teams while scouting a henry owens talk about his velocity/how he holds it as much as his awesome change. That being said if people start writing him off bc he sits "only 88 mph", I agree that to be borderline ignorant. Just an example of what I believe velocity mongers to think, but I can't help wondering about a guys velocity.
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jchang
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Post by jchang on Feb 23, 2015 14:29:32 GMT -5
Consider that Owens 3 full season progression, 101 -> 135 -> 159 IP, average 4.4, 5.2 and 6.1 IP per start, every indication is that he is getting stronger each season, as would be expected for a person from age 19 to 21. He has been effective with his combination of pitches, with the FB at 88-90 during this entire period. The conclusion should be that he is not pitching for the radar gun. I do find the last 6 six games in AAA interesting. His ERA went up. Some suggested this could be simply fatigue, it is definitely also a very small sample size. I am not convinced it is fatigue, as he did continue his 6+ IP per game pace, including on 8 IP. It could be that the more experienced AAA hitters are better at judging his pitches. If Owens continues to be successful with a 88-90 FB, I don't see why he would try to throw harder.
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Post by cologneredsox on Feb 24, 2015 4:36:39 GMT -5
If I remember right, he gave uo some Homeruns and therefore inflated the ERA a little bit. Aside from those he had good periphals if I recall right. It will be interesting to see if the Homeruns were an aberration or become a pattern...
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