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Catcher in 2019 (4/16: Swihart DFA'd)
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Post by m1keyboots on Feb 26, 2019 11:29:10 GMT -5
I think the defensive value, leadership among players that he's grown in the system with and trust among those veteran pitchers, combined with the ability to hit and run make CV more valuable than Swihart could ever be save for a 15-15 season.
Swihart should have been traded for something a couple years ago. He's likely a good catcher he's just obviously not the red sox favorite "good" catcher and unfortunately for Swihart fans, that's all that matters in the end.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 1, 2019 15:30:08 GMT -5
Salvador Perez getting second opinion on elbow, looking like a torn UCL and Tommy John surgery (meaning out until 2020). So there's one more possible trade partner for our extra catcher. Granted KC isn't exactly in the hunt for a playoff spot.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 1, 2019 23:16:40 GMT -5
Salvador Perez getting second opinion on elbow, looking like a torn UCL and Tommy John surgery (meaning out until 2020). So there's one more possible trade partner for our extra catcher. Granted KC isn't exactly in the hunt for a playoff spot. Might pique their interest in Swihart tho, since he costs nearly nothing, has some control, and they can play him a ton and not care if he’s not good at first. Good match for a team hoping on upside. Edit: tho I’d prefer they keep and play him, fwiw
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Post by jimmydugan on Mar 2, 2019 0:28:32 GMT -5
Agreed that KC being out of the hunt gives them even more reason to want Swihart. It seems like the Sox don't have much interest in keeping him and after a very quick glance at their system, it looks like they're deep when it comes to the type of player (spot starter/depth SP/middle RP with options) that I think the Sox are targeting.
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Post by larrycook on Mar 2, 2019 1:44:13 GMT -5
Leon with a tater today! Plus the pitching staff loves throwing to him.
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Post by GyIantosca on Mar 2, 2019 6:46:47 GMT -5
I admit I am rooting for Swihart. I watched him last year even though he did not play as much he looked better and better every time. I finally got convinced when he nailed. I think the guy was on the Phillies he was there speedster. He gives the Sox cost flexibility .Leon is up this year. I thought Swihart advantage was maybe working with the kids coming up from AAA. When ERod came up a couple of years ago I thought Swihart caught him well. Farrell kept the veteran with ERod and you could tell they weren’t meshing. Ryan Hanigan , I didn’t like the way handled ERod.
If they move Swihart I think they should at least tie up Leon for a year or two. Swihart they still have like four years control.
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Post by larrycook on Mar 3, 2019 2:01:12 GMT -5
Vazquez zero for all of spring training thus far! Swinging late on almost every at bat.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 3, 2019 14:33:06 GMT -5
Vazquez zero for all of spring training thus far! Swinging late on almost every at bat. Lol. 0/10. How awful. You're the best.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 3, 2019 15:54:35 GMT -5
Vazquez zero for all of spring training thus far! Swinging late on almost every at bat. Lol. 0/10. How awful. You're the best. How did Mookie start of last spring?
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 3, 2019 20:02:33 GMT -5
It's certainly predictive. Just look at last spring training, when the top batting average among those with 15 PA belonged to (checks notes) ... Christian Vazquez.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 6, 2019 10:30:46 GMT -5
BP's comprehensive catching stats, rate per framing chances (good proxy for innings caught), rank among top 30 catchers in terms of PT:
Sandy Leon #2 (14.3 runs per 6K chances, which is equivalent to 120 GS)
Christian Vazquez #5 (11.6)
Blake Swihart, with 6.9, would be tied for #10 had he qualified. The next four guys are Mike Zunino, Martin Maldonado, Yadier Molina, and Buster Posey.
Swihart still projects to be an above-average hitter for a catcher, and likely a top-10 in MLB. I think everyone sees that hit tool. If he's top 10 on both sides of the ball, it's not crazy to say that he should be in the next tier below All-Star candidate if he gets PT, and he has four years of control left.
They have to get that in trade value for him. If they do, I'm fine with that. If they can't, I'm fine with Leon for fair value, which should be easier to agree on (although valuing his pitch-calling will make it tougher).
One Swihart solution (which I think has been done in the past, via verbal agreement) is to include a PTBNL where the choice is a function of how the player performs in his first year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 6, 2019 13:07:54 GMT -5
BP's comprehensive catching stats, rate per framing chances (good proxy for innings caught), rank among top 30 catchers in terms of PT: Sandy Leon #2 (14.3 runs per 6K chances, which is equivalent to 120 GS) Christian Vazquez #5 (11.6) Blake Swihart, with 6.9, would be tied for #10 had he qualified. The next four guys are Mike Zunino, Martin Maldonado, Yadier Molina, and Buster Posey. Swihart still projects to be an above-average hitter for a catcher, and likely a top-10 in MLB. I think everyone sees that hit tool. If he's top 10 on both sides of the ball, it's not crazy to say that he should be in the next tier below All-Star candidate if he gets PT, and he has four years of control left. They have to get that in trade value for him. If they do, I'm fine with that. If they can't, I'm fine with Leon for fair value, which should be easier to agree on (although valuing his pitch-calling will make it tougher).
One Swihart solution (which I think has been done in the past, via verbal agreement) is to include a PTBNL where the choice is a function of how the player performs in his first year.
Is this some kind of a gaslighting?
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Post by soxjim on Mar 7, 2019 0:03:06 GMT -5
BP's comprehensive catching stats, rate per framing chances (good proxy for innings caught), rank among top 30 catchers in terms of PT:
Sandy Leon #2 (14.3 runs per 6K chances, which is equivalent to 120 GS)
Christian Vazquez #5 (11.6)
Blake Swihart, with 6.9, would be tied for #10 had he qualified. The next four guys are Mike Zunino, Martin Maldonado, Yadier Molina, and Buster Posey.
Swihart still projects to be an above-average hitter for a catcher, and likely a top-10 in MLB. I think everyone sees that hit tool. If he's top 10 on both sides of the ball, it's not crazy to say that he should be in the next tier below All-Star candidate if he gets PT, and he has four years of control left.
They have to get that in trade value for him. If they do, I'm fine with that. If they can't, I'm fine with Leon for fair value, which should be easier to agree on (although valuing his pitch-calling will make it tougher).
One Swihart solution (which I think has been done in the past, via verbal agreement) is to include a PTBNL where the choice is a function of how the player performs in his first year.
I had a disagreement with the poster "fenway" on this so I went to check what he was saying when he mentions Swihart's hit tool is less than Vaz and it's not good -- and you know what? - the projections have Swihart as awful. So fenway was right. I never responded in part because I was and still am in shock with the numbers I saw from Fangraphs with the different projections. I've been wrong 1,000 times before and expect to be wrong many more. I don't see the logic of Vaz as a hitter over Swihart though I know I don't understand the intricacies. Further, I look at ZIPS and I see they have Leon and Swihart as even (unless I'm not interpreting something right) with a WRC+ of 62. So it is as fenway is saying and it's not everyone sees the hit tool as you suggest. If the Sox keep him I hope you're right because I think he is being undervalued-- but I can't argue with what fenway is saying nor does it seem like the Sox think of him much as a catcher offensively either. Or maybe they do and they are "slow-playing their hand" but I doubt that.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 7, 2019 9:26:57 GMT -5
Projections cannot possibly be accurate on a guy that barely ever played in recent seasons if they all of a sudden start playing a lot. So they're pretty much worthless for those kinds of players. They'll just assume that they'll have the same stats as the season before in almost no playing time. Steamer projects him to play 29 games next year even though he played 82 last season. I have no idea how they calculate that. But if he's traded to some rebuilding team, he'd play a lot more than 29 games. If any catcher is traded, he'd play a lot more than that. I don't even think it's a starting point to predict what kind of season he'd have with a lot of playing time.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 7, 2019 11:24:21 GMT -5
Projections cannot possibly be accurate on a guy that barely ever played in recent seasons if they all of a sudden start playing a lot. So they're pretty much worthless for those kinds of players. They'll just assume that they'll have the same stats as the season before in almost no playing time. Steamer projects him to play 29 games next year even though he played 82 last season. I have no idea how they calculate that. But if he's traded to some rebuilding team, he'd play a lot more than 29 games. If any catcher is traded, he'd play a lot more than that. I don't even think it's a starting point to predict what kind of season he'd have with a lot of playing time.So what would you starting point be?
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 7, 2019 11:49:01 GMT -5
Projections cannot possibly be accurate on a guy that barely ever played in recent seasons if they all of a sudden start playing a lot. So they're pretty much worthless for those kinds of players. They'll just assume that they'll have the same stats as the season before in almost no playing time. Steamer projects him to play 29 games next year even though he played 82 last season. I have no idea how they calculate that. But if he's traded to some rebuilding team, he'd play a lot more than 29 games. If any catcher is traded, he'd play a lot more than that. I don't even think it's a starting point to predict what kind of season he'd have with a lot of playing time.So what would you starting point be? There isn't one.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 7, 2019 12:57:12 GMT -5
So what would you starting point be? There isn't one. This is both confusing and not a particularly ringing endorsement of the player.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 7, 2019 13:04:04 GMT -5
This is both confusing and not a particularly ringing endorsement of the player. A player who has barely played for years cannot be judged accurately in any way until he plays. It's not a ringing endorsement.
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Post by sparkygian on Mar 7, 2019 15:34:30 GMT -5
This is both confusing and not a particularly ringing endorsement of the player. A player who has barely played for years cannot be judged accurately in any way until he plays. It's not a ringing endorsement. On the surface, it seems that Swihart is someone Sox feel has talent, otherwise they would have just let him go sometime in last two years. If he's a #3 catcher, Sox wouldn't bother with giving him a roster spot while trying to trade him for a 'good deal'. What's the most the Sox could get for a #3 catcher, especially one who's maligned defensively, and offensively, as many rightly feel? It seems like a waste of time to do that, imo. Just let him go. It sort of seems that Swihart's reputation has been built around his offensive capabilities, not his defensive reputation (although it doesn't seem totally accurate that he's not at least a decent defensive catcher since it's not a unanimous position that he's inadequate in that regard). So if Sox aren't 'sold' on him, then the only way they could get decent return for Swihart is if other teams think he's got potential as at least a decent-hitting catcher. Seems that the jury is still out on this guy, which makes a lot of sense since he's hardly played over the last few seasons, but Sox must still feel like he's got potential, imo. I would really like to see what he's got, once and for all, and I wish the Sox would at least give him the back-up catcher's position this season, and see what happens. That would mean that Leon or Vazquez would have to go, and can Sox get much in a trade for Leon? Will be interesting to see what transpires before OD.
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Post by soxjim on Mar 7, 2019 17:29:15 GMT -5
So what would you starting point be? Oh, I don't know. How about we start with Swihart's current career OPS against RHP of 0.733? Go look at his current career stats, he's been very impressive against right handed pitching. I'd take Swihart's current stat line over his career 435 PA as our 2019 catching output any day of the week. If he's managed correctly and only plays against RHP and does nothing but maintain the output that he's already produced in major league baseball, he's got to be head and shoulders above even the most wildly optimistic views of Leon/Vazquez offensively. That doesn't even take into account any progression at all from Swihart which he probably has plenty of. Swihart should start against RHP. Leon should start against LHP. Vazquez should buy a plane ticket. I would prefer Sox keep Swihart but to counter what you're saying -- is it more important to play "the bat" or play the defensive catcher that works well with the staff? When Sox won in 2013 they replaced the offensive catcher (Salty) with the defensive one (Ross). In 2016 that same defensive catcher was huge for the Cubs helping them win the title. And we've had several catchers more in the "hit-first" mode after Varitek left and they didn't last long. The Red Sox had one of the best all-time super teams over the past 40 years and yet their two top catchers OPS couldn't even break.550. There has to be something said for a defensive catcher rather than platoon to gain more offense. OFC Sox had top offense those two years so they could afford to live with a lousy hitting catcher.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 7, 2019 18:17:53 GMT -5
So what would you starting point be? Oh, I don't know. How about we start with Swihart's current career OPS against RHP of 0.733? Go look at his current career stats, he's been very impressive against right handed pitching. I'd take Swihart's current stat line over his career 435 PA as our 2019 catching output any day of the week. If he's managed correctly and only plays against RHP and does nothing but maintain the output that he's already produced in major league baseball, he's got to be head and shoulders above even the most wildly optimistic views of Leon/Vazquez offensively. That doesn't even take into account any progression at all from Swihart which he probably has plenty of. Swihart should start against RHP. Leon should start against LHP. Vazquez should buy a plane ticket. This is both sort of reasonable and something I don't think Alex Cora is very likely to do at all. The mere presence of Sandy Leon should tell us that pitcher comfort comes before OPS optimization for him. Also, L/R splits take a super long time to stabilize, and that line against righties comes with a .365 BABIP.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 8, 2019 11:52:41 GMT -5
Swihart should have been traded for something a couple years ago. He's likely a good catcher he's just obviously not the red sox favorite "good" catcher and unfortunately for Swihart fans, that's all that matters in the end. This is my problem with the catching situation - if by "good" you mean above average then probably none of our options are good to start the season. Leon and Vazquez very likely never get to good, Swihart could get there but needs playing time. Last year was very frustrating at the catching position and, if Swihart doesn't turn into that good player, then it's likely to be a point of frustration for the foreseeable future. It just doesn't seem like a good team building move to ditch a high upside player for the sake of keeping two below-average, minimal upside catchers. Keep either Vazquez or Leon for the stability and Swihart for the upside. Keeping Leon and Vazquez just seems like you're locking in a below average output for the next 2-4 years and I don't know why the team would do that. OK, I'm going to be tough about this. Throwing a bunch of terms around without definitions is your prerogative, but it doesn't really nail down your case. Good for catchers is a very different take than for most of the other positions. The history of MLB is littered with catchers who had 15+ year careers but who were mediocre to very bad hitters. The position is valued differently. All the evidence points to that simple fact over and over again. So throwing around that term means absolutely nothing to me without considering that. We have no idea what data teams are using, but there have been hints over the years about how coveted some catchers are despite their near uselessness at the plate. In a nutshell: Good needs a clear definition and we don't have all the data we need to get a handle on one.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 8, 2019 11:53:51 GMT -5
Swihart should have been traded for something a couple years ago. He's likely a good catcher he's just obviously not the red sox favorite "good" catcher and unfortunately for Swihart fans, that's all that matters in the end. This is my problem with the catching situation - if by "good" you mean above average then probably none of our options are good to start the season. Leon and Vazquez very likely never get to good, Swihart could get there but needs playing time. Last year was very frustrating at the catching position and, if Swihart doesn't turn into that good player, then it's likely to be a point of frustration for the foreseeable future. It just doesn't seem like a good team building move to ditch a high upside player for the sake of keeping two below-average, minimal upside catchers. Keep either Vazquez or Leon for the stability and Swihart for the upside. Keeping Leon and Vazquez just seems like you're locking in a below average output for the next 2-4 years and I don't know why the team would do that. The team would do that because they value catchers differently than you do. By BP's advanced defensive catcher stats, Sandy Leon was 7th best in the majors with 11.7 runs above average and Vazquez was 14th best at 9.0. Swihart was basically average (-0.0). And that doesn't include pitch calling, which Leon draws raves from the entire pitching staff for.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 8, 2019 12:38:05 GMT -5
OK, I'm going to be tough about this. Throwing a bunch of terms around without definitions is your prerogative, but it doesn't really nail down your case. Good for catchers is a very different take than for most of the other positions. The history of MLB is littered with catchers who had 15+ year careers but who were mediocre to very bad hitters. The position is valued differently. All the evidence points to that simple fact over and over again. So throwing around that term means absolutely nothing to me without considering that. We have no idea what data teams are using, but there have been hints over the years about how coveted some catchers are despite their near uselessness at the plate. In a nutshell: Good needs a clear definition and we don't have all the data we need to get a handle on one. How about WAR, is that quantifiable enough? Vazquez has had a negative WAR in 2 of his 4 professional seasons and his career high of 1.1 doesn't qualify as starter caliber. Leon is slightly better as he had one 2.8 WAR season, but if you remove that year from his stat line his career WAR is 0.0! You don't have to dive too deep into the numbers or show your work to get the point that's being made. The fervor that people defend Leon and Vazquez I'll never understand, this isn't a Fisk/Bench debate and the team wouldn't miss a beat if either is traded. Be the grammar police if you want, but this is like me telling you that it's dark at night and you demanding the exact lumen count. If you get the point of the statement, it's hardly relevant. And, yes, there are plenty of examples of defense only catchers who had long careers, but is that what the overall goal should be? There are two possibilities here. Either the Red Sox are really stupid or catcher WAR is completely broken. Which do you think is more likely?
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 8, 2019 13:12:36 GMT -5
There are two possibilities here. Either the Red Sox are really stupid or catcher WAR is completely broken. Which do you think is more likely? I think the third and most likely possibility is that the team has two safe(ish) catchers that are somewhere between average and below average and that they have one catcher who they're reluctant to play because of how much variability/risk there is in his possible outcomes. As a fan, I would rather see Swihart play because of the upside and, frankly, I just don't enjoy watching the other two play baseball as much. If they didn't like their catchers, they'd try to improve. They wouldn't have agonized over which one to get rid of for 18 months. They definitely like their catchers a lot more than you do.
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