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2018 Red Sox vs. Yankees ALDS Gameday Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 10, 2018 14:48:04 GMT -5
Life is a beautiful thing....who would have thought that 15 years after AARON BOONE hit the walkoff in '03 he would be blamed by many for helping BOS beat NYY in the playoffs. Reminded me of something Boone said after that series. In effect, he said that he thought they were going to lose but that his teammates (Jeter, et al.) told him not to worry that something always happens to the Sox. Then he hits the HR. So much has changed since 2004. I bet almost every longtime Sox fan was expecting Roberts to be called out. 2004 seems to have totally blown away any curse that was lingering over the franchise. I'm still amazed by 2004 with all of the really close calls that the umps got right in those final 4 games. Any of them called differently would have ended it all.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 10, 2018 15:14:51 GMT -5
Reminded me of something Boone said after that series. In effect, he said that he thought they were going to lose but that his teammates (Jeter, et al.) told him not to worry that something always happens to the Sox. Then he hits the HR. So much has changed since 2004. I bet almost every longtime Sox fan was expecting Roberts to be called out. 2004 seems to have totally blown away any curse that was lingering over the franchise. I'm still amazed by 2004 with all of the really close calls that the umps got right in those final 4 games. Any of them called differently would have ended it all. And remember in the ARod slapped ball call with Arroyo, the first base umpire called ARod safe - even though Rodriguez never touched first base? I was amazed they got together and fixed that one.
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Post by ramireja on Oct 10, 2018 15:41:24 GMT -5
The final list of 2018 Yankee-system players traded for rentals who will soon be FAs:
- Brandon Drury - Billy McKinney - Tyler Austin - Luis Rijo - Abiatal Avelino - Juan De Paula - Dillon Tate - Josh Rogers - Cody Carroll
They obviously kept their top prospects (Sheffield, Florial), but still nice to see them the thin the system even just a little bit. Also, nobody in their current farm system (at least right now) scares me as much as the homegrown guys already with the parent club, namely Judge, Torres, and even Andujar.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 10, 2018 16:31:04 GMT -5
I don't take people viewing the Stros as favorites as a slight to our guys. They are the defending champs, they got the crown and have great players. I like the fact that we have home field and if we can get out the gate with the first 2, IMO, we will win it in 6 or less.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 10, 2018 16:31:15 GMT -5
Hey Eric, the analysis is fine, even welcomed. The snark isn't though. These are intense times in Red Sox nation, but tone down the attacks. I need to point out one statistical phenomenon too, and that is that effect sizes and sample sizes aren't necessarily independent of one another. Consequences of studies (and observations) with small sample sizes/reduced power are both a reduced chance of finding a true effect AND an increased chance of finding a statistically significant effect that is not real. So small samples tend to overestimate effect sizes and that alone is a concern for some of these small sample size observations. Lets use Nathan Eovaldi for example: Take take his two starts on Aug 4 (Yanks at home - 8IP, 3H, 0ER, 1BB, 4K) and Aug 10 (Baltimore on road - 2.2IP, 10H, 8R [4ER], 2BB, 0K). Use your preferred indicator of overall game performance and use these two consecutive starts to test the hypothesis that Eovaldi is a better pitcher at home. With a two game sample size, the effect size here is going to be huge no? One that is so large it is almost certain to pass a test of significance, but of course you can see why this sample size is problematic for testing this hypothesis. This isn't to say your analyses aren't appreciated, or even that you're wrong about anything, but it is important to know that low sample sizes tend to overestimate effect sizes. Good point about sample sizes. I don't even check to see if something real is happening unless I notice a difference at the scouting level, or I've heard or read something about an adjustment, or the results are so large that everyone's talking about it. If all I have is an effect size, I'm looking for p = .001 or the neighborhood before it starts getting interesting.
I understand about the snark and the tone. (And that was the toned-down version!) But please note that I was defending myself against (among other things) repeated, repeated, repeated, repeated claims that I said something stupid that I never said. (It's either 3 or 4 times that I've explained to him what I actually said about Hembree.) It's possible to disagree with my analysis and not attack me personally, mostly by asserting untruths about what I've said (I don't think they're conscious lies). For reasons I needn't go into, I'm really sensitive about people saying stuff about me that ain't true. I mean we all are, but that's a hit button with me.
In any case, if I knew there was so much love in this thread for having been right about Brockstar (who gets all the credit), I probably wouldn't have bothered with that response! Which would have been a shame, because I love that discovery about the early 2016 pair of homers. That's the sort of SSSS effect that you can only spot in retrospect.
You need to go back and read what you said about Moreland and Hembree because you keep claiming you didn't say what you said. Acting like because you said one thing later on, that you didn't argue one point for weeks with each player. If you really think you didn't argue in a lot of posts that Moreland's downturn was because of his toe, you are flat out lying. Yea maybe at some point you might have said it was a hot streak after the fact, I'd have to check. That doesn't change the fact you argued the opposite for a long time! Same thing with Hembree, you now act like you weren't comparing him to other guys and saying not to get them because it wasn't an upgrade. Like you didn't say Hembree was this great pitcher pitching like an 8th inning set up guy and had this great skill at coming in with runners on. You said and did those exact things, go re-read your posts. They are all there Eric! The ones where you were pumping up Thornburgh as a reason why we didn't need another guy in the bullpen after a few good innings. If you think calling Barnes a new pitcher, only to see him suck the rest of the season means your right ok. I now see why you think your always right. Barnes has got better for the last four seasons. You called him a new pitcher after he had that stretch with a WHIP under 1 in July, only for him to have a WHIP of 1.300 and higher the last three months of the season. Barnes bwar for the last 4 years -.3, .3, .7, and 1.1. He gets better every year and I would expect him to get better next year. He's taking the normal developmental path, by getting a little bit better every year. Eric I really do like your studies and the time you put into them! My only problem is the conclusions your draw from them. Instead of saying Barnes was a new pitcher, it should have been look what he can become.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 10, 2018 17:02:42 GMT -5
Life is a beautiful thing....who would have thought that 15 years after AARON BOONE hit the walkoff in '03 he would be blamed by many for helping BOS beat NYY in the playoffs. Reminded me of something Boone said after that series. In effect, he said that he thought they were going to lose but that his teammates (Jeter, et al.) told him not to worry that something always happens to the Sox. Then he hits the HR. So much has changed since 2004. I bet almost every longtime Sox fan was expecting Roberts to be called out. 2004 seems to have totally blown away any curse that was lingering over the franchise. Which brings up the possibility that the Dodgers and Sox might meet in the WS. I have no doubt that Roberts would receive a standing ovation when his name is announced at the start of the Series. That would send a few chills.
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Post by patford on Oct 10, 2018 17:29:59 GMT -5
What CC was really complaining about was not getting his typical strike zone. No doubt about that.
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Post by marrcus on Oct 10, 2018 17:52:58 GMT -5
Would a better positioned Judge --6'7-- caught Vazquez HR? Just asking.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Oct 10, 2018 18:24:37 GMT -5
When i think about last night's game now (and that has happened today from time to time) it's not Kimbrel's pitching that comes to mind or any other high[or low]light other than that last play. Nunez to Pierce. Not technically game saving but probably. Possibly season saving. Can't see it enough times. If gleyber beat the throw, pearce is on the ground. Would Hechavarria have scored? Would there have been a play at plate? Poor TV coverage of play Shocked you'd say such a thing!
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 10, 2018 18:47:26 GMT -5
Would a better positioned Judge --6'7-- caught Vazquez HR? Just asking. Nah. He's pretty great but he's not Spiderman. It was the liner over Gardner's head that would've been caught with better positioning and route. Also, it was pretty great that Vazquez's homer wouldn't have been anywhere else, and Sanchez's sac fly in the ninth would've been WAY out of Fenway.
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Post by michael on Oct 10, 2018 18:59:53 GMT -5
The final list of 2018 Yankee-system players traded for rentals who will soon be FAs: - Brandon Drury - Billy McKinney - Tyler Austin - Luis Rijo - Abiatal Avelino - Juan De Paula - Dillon Tate - Josh Rogers - Cody Carroll They obviously kept their top prospects (Sheffield, Florial), but still nice to see them the thin the system even just a little bit. Also, nobody in their current farm system (at least right now) scares me as much as the homegrown guys already with the parent club, namely Judge, Torres, and even Andujar. Being in a nit picking mood, I'll offer a tiny bit to your very nice list. Torres isn't really home grown. Torres was developed in the Cubbies system.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 10, 2018 19:31:46 GMT -5
The final list of 2018 Yankee-system players traded for rentals who will soon be FAs: - Brandon Drury - Billy McKinney - Tyler Austin - Luis Rijo - Abiatal Avelino - Juan De Paula - Dillon Tate - Josh Rogers - Cody Carroll They obviously kept their top prospects (Sheffield, Florial), but still nice to see them the thin the system even just a little bit. Also, nobody in their current farm system (at least right now) scares me as much as the homegrown guys already with the parent club, namely Judge, Torres, and even Andujar. Being in a nit picking mood, I'll offer a tiny bit to your very nice list. Torres isn't really home grown. Torres was developed in the Cubbies system. And Clint Frazier out with concussion issues isn't exactly minced meat. Their weaknesses going forward are starting pitching and catching.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 10, 2018 19:36:57 GMT -5
For me regarding the Red Sox / Yankee rivalry. They dominated last century, we're dominating this one.
I also don't think this series was all that close and I don't think history will view it that way either. We won 3-1 and swept them at their home outscoring them 20-4 there. There were really only two drama points the whole series, game 2 when Wright was not available and the very last inning.
Also regarding 2004, the past was Yankee moments, this was 4 complete games worth.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,312
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Post by radiohix on Oct 10, 2018 20:20:11 GMT -5
I know it's an old game but for me, this gif encapsulate our season vs the MFY. What a badass moment that was!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 10, 2018 20:52:09 GMT -5
@andrewmarchand
On Get Up! Teixeira said Judge made “huge mistake” playing New York, New York at Fenway
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 10, 2018 21:05:57 GMT -5
I read that beginning with the entries from 8 PM on and what I couldn't understand is nobody, not ONCE,addressed last night's game while it was going on.Almost every entry was about potential trades and free agent signings and lamentations about not getting Sale.I checked twice that I was on the ALDS thread.I was. Zero passion. Since I don't do a lot of sleeping, I do a lot of reading. I wouldn't interpret their posting patterns as equating to zero passion. In fact, it's pretty much the last thing I would accuse Yankee fans of. They just don't follow the same posting patterns as SoxProspects. In general, there are very few in game posts throughout the season no matter what the situation. They tend to post post-game, not intra-game. There tend to be more posts after a victory than a defeat. In general, my opinion only, they have more fanboys than SP who really don't know what they are looking at or make irrational suggestions or trade proposals. On the other hand, they have a decent mix of posters that are very knowledgeable and are, to me, a valuable resource somewhat similar to listening to an opposing team's broadcast. They also don't get as sabermetic as we do. They have no eric equivalent. On the plus side, they don't seem to get into anywhere as many one on one endless squabbles as we do.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 10, 2018 21:06:05 GMT -5
The final list of 2018 Yankee-system players traded for rentals who will soon be FAs: - Brandon Drury - Billy McKinney - Tyler Austin - Luis Rijo - Abiatal Avelino - Juan De Paula - Dillon Tate - Josh Rogers - Cody Carroll They obviously kept their top prospects (Sheffield, Florial), but still nice to see them the thin the system even just a little bit. Also, nobody in their current farm system (at least right now) scares me as much as the homegrown guys already with the parent club, namely Judge, Torres, and even Andujar. I was reading that a lot of prospects on this list were rule 5 eligible and the Yankees weren't going to protect them on their 40 man roster anyways. Edit- Joel Sherman wrote about it sometime after the trade deadline.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 10, 2018 21:11:09 GMT -5
I read that beginning with the entries from 8 PM on and what I couldn't understand is nobody, not ONCE,addressed last night's game while it was going on.Almost every entry was about potential trades and free agent signings and lamentations about not getting Sale.I checked twice that I was on the ALDS thread.I was. Zero passion. Since I don't do a lot of sleeping, I do a lot of reading. I wouldn't interpret their posting patterns as equating to zero passion. They just don't follow the same pattern as SoxProspects. In general, there are very few in game posts throughout the season no matter what the situation. They tend to post post-game, not intra-game. There tend to be more posts after a victory than a defeat. In general, my opinion only, they have more fanboys than SP who really don't know what they are looking at or make irrational suggestions or trade proposals. On the other hand, they have a decent mix of posters that are very knowledgeable and are, to me, a valuable resource somewhat similar to listening to an opposing team's broadcast. They also don't get as sabermetic as we do. They have no eric equivalent. On the plus side, they don't seem to get into anywhere as many one on one endless squabbles as we do. In other words, they don't live and breathe baseball like we do. It's definitely a step back and boring to me. Speaking of squabbles, you owe some homeless man some doughnuts. ;-)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 10, 2018 21:24:01 GMT -5
Since I don't do a lot of sleeping, I do a lot of reading. I wouldn't interpret their posting patterns as equating to zero passion. They just don't follow the same pattern as SoxProspects. In general, there are very few in game posts throughout the season no matter what the situation. They tend to post post-game, not intra-game. There tend to be more posts after a victory than a defeat. In general, my opinion only, they have more fanboys than SP who really don't know what they are looking at or make irrational suggestions or trade proposals. On the other hand, they have a decent mix of posters that are very knowledgeable and are, to me, a valuable resource somewhat similar to listening to an opposing team's broadcast. They also don't get as sabermetic as we do. They have no eric equivalent. On the plus side, they don't seem to get into anywhere as many one on one endless squabbles as we do. In other words, they don't live and breathe baseball like we do. It's definitely a step back and boring to me. Speaking of squabbles, you owe some homeless man some doughnuts. ;-) In other words, they don't live and breathe for posting about baseball. Like it or not, Yankee fans are every bit as passionate about baseball as Red Sox fans. 30-40 posters is not a very big sample size relative to fan bases. I already mentioned about the donuts. Next trip to Davao, I'll buy a box of donuts and hand them out to poor kids. If I give an entire box to just one, they would just sell the donuts and bring the money to their families. We pretty much don't have homeless, we have 'squatter areas'. It's one of those bets you don't mind losing.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 10, 2018 21:31:03 GMT -5
In other words, they don't live and breathe baseball like we do. It's definitely a step back and boring to me. Speaking of squabbles, you owe some homeless man some doughnuts. ;-) In other words, they don't live and breathe for posting about baseball. Like it or not, Yankee fans are every bit as passionate about baseball as Red Sox fans. 30-40 posters is not a very big sample size relative to fan bases. I already mentioned about the donuts. Next trip to Davao, I'll buy a box of donuts and hand them out to poor kids. If I give an entire box to just one, they would just sell the donuts and bring the money to their families. We pretty much don't have homeless, we have 'squatter areas'. It's one of those bets you don't mind losing. Yeah good point, although there aren't a lot of great places to post. I'm sure there are a lot of diehard Yankee fans tweeting about Yankee games everyday. Didn't see the doughnut post. I was just kidding about that line.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 10, 2018 21:35:57 GMT -5
Curious to see what you find. I was all geared up to be outraged by Angel Hernandez's zone but to be honest I thought he called a solid game. Maybe a little stingy on the edges but consistently so. This is CC from Brooks. Looks like 2 missed strikes up high, one free strike on the corner. As a "bias" Red Sox fan -- I thought the called strike 3 on Beni was awful as well as I thought 2 or maybe 3 pitches from Kimbrel were strikes. I missed the 2nd pitch but I heard on tv Darling make mention that it could have been a strike. The Kimbrel meltdown was setup by the walk to Judge and teh crappy single from Gregorious. With that said-- Kimbrel is so damn erratic.
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Post by patford on Oct 10, 2018 21:44:50 GMT -5
Just for the lulz.. Keep underrating us national media, you're doing a great job! Priceless.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 10, 2018 21:50:46 GMT -5
@andrewmarchand On Get Up! Teixeira said Judge made “huge mistake” playing New York, New York at Fenway It was a terrible mistake. You mock your opponents after you beat them, not when the series is tied. Judge looks like a baller and a good dude, he will definitely learn from this.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 10, 2018 21:58:17 GMT -5
You mean like this??
Start Spreading the News They're Leaving Today It's Time to Pack Up Your Old Mitt New York, New York
Those LCS Blues Just Won't Go Away You Can Go Home and Just Sit New York, New York
You're Gonna Wake Up Every Night and Begin To Weep A Hundred Win Season Collapsed into a Very, Very Big Heap
The Sox Red and Blues Continue to Play They Won't be Coming Back To Old New York
You Claim It Isn't Fair But We Don't Really Care Toodle Loo New York, Neeeewwww Yorrrrrk
All Sit!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 10, 2018 22:16:04 GMT -5
In other words, they don't live and breathe for posting about baseball. Like it or not, Yankee fans are every bit as passionate about baseball as Red Sox fans. 30-40 posters is not a very big sample size relative to fan bases. I already mentioned about the donuts. Next trip to Davao, I'll buy a box of donuts and hand them out to poor kids. If I give an entire box to just one, they would just sell the donuts and bring the money to their families. We pretty much don't have homeless, we have 'squatter areas'. It's one of those bets you don't mind losing. Yeah good point, although there aren't a lot of great places to post. I'm sure there are a lot of diehard Yankee fans tweeting about Yankee games everyday. Didn't see the doughnut post. I was just kidding about that line. I made it when they went to break and showed Sale start the walk in from the bullpen.
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