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2018 Red Sox vs. Yankees ALDS Gameday Thread
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 10, 2018 22:36:04 GMT -5
Good point about sample sizes. I don't even check to see if something real is happening unless I notice a difference at the scouting level, or I've heard or read something about an adjustment, or the results are so large that everyone's talking about it. If all I have is an effect size, I'm looking for p = .001 or the neighborhood before it starts getting interesting.
I understand about the snark and the tone. (And that was the toned-down version!) But please note that I was defending myself against (among other things) repeated, repeated, repeated, repeated claims that I said something stupid that I never said. (It's either 3 or 4 times that I've explained to him what I actually said about Hembree.) It's possible to disagree with my analysis and not attack me personally, mostly by asserting untruths about what I've said (I don't think they're conscious lies). For reasons I needn't go into, I'm really sensitive about people saying stuff about me that ain't true. I mean we all are, but that's a hot button with me.
In any case, if I knew there was so much love in this thread for having been right about Brockstar (who gets all the credit), I probably wouldn't have bothered with that response! Which would have been a shame, because I love that discovery about the early 2016 pair of homers. That's the sort of SSSS effect that you can only spot in retrospect.
www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/job-posting-red-sox-major-league-clubhouse-analyst/Have you ever thought about getting back into it Eric? I know you're about the busiest person I've ever met (not met), but boy that would be fun to help my team win if I had your skills. If only this were a thing when I was going to college when I had an 800 on my math SAT and a 5 on my AP calculus. Instead I majored in killing brain cells. It is fun to help your team win. I claimed to be one the five happiest people in the stands when Drew hit the GS off of Fausto Roberto Hernandez Carmona in 2007 ALCS 6, since that was a personnel decision I was involved in from the outset (one of two; I was largely responsible for picking up Carlos Pena, but not letting him go!).
As far as the Sox position is concerned, I'm not qualified in terms of statistical chops, and I'd have to refresh my SQL and other database and programming skills on the fly. I'd want to learn R, for instance.
If I hadn't had something I knew I should pursue instead and that was much more important, I would have self-taught myself to an advanced statistics degree equivalent and done that programming update after I got laid off in early 2009, and pursued a full-time position. I am sitting on a bunch of (quite possibly original) ideas and I've thought about essentially selling them to somebody.
The funny thing is that I didn't start actively working on what my friends and family know as "the book" until three years later. At the time it was going to be a paper for the Journal of Consciousness Studies. Then a series of papers. Now a pair of books, the first doing double duty as both the full scholarly book and one that any college-educated person should be able to tackle, with the second being both a summary of the first for general readers, and an exploration of speculations that don't belong in the first book. Working titles are The Physical Mind and The Divine Universe.
The cool thing about this topic -- consciousness (in the sense of subjective experience) and free will -- is that it embraces two different branches of philosophy that aren't that informed about each other, plus heavy-duty neuroscience, plus conceptually heavy-duty physics. So there is no expert scholar who does not need basic stuff in multiple areas outside their expertise explained! That's why the scholarly book ends up as a book for smart general readers. When I realized that, it changed everything and was tremendously exciting.
The opening of the book, 212 words originally, is now 2540. If I'd known it was going to be twelve times as much work (and take twelve times as long) to explain everything to everybody, I might have balked. But now I'm all in.
The goal now is to write a version for philosophers of mind, i.e., that doesn't explain anything they don't know, and merely summarizes the chapters after the basic theory is introduced. That's a target that's actually in sight. And then get their feedback.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 10, 2018 22:43:15 GMT -5
No baseball until Saturday is brutal.
We in NC are awaiting the rain and winds from Michael. I am awaiting my carpal tunnel surgery on Friday...just want to get it behind me and feel good again - my third book is not happening until this gets fixed.
Question - we only have basic cable - I don't want to go to the bar to watch each game (I will be as big as a house)....
Anyone here use Sling or another App on Roku to get the TBS App and just pay for one month? Things used to be so easy when the games were on the major networks (yes, I am ageing myself!)
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 10, 2018 22:47:13 GMT -5
I'm just happy egghead got played. He looked like a goose out of water. What a terrible route to Kinsler's blast! Reviewing the game thread ... no one anywhere has mentioned that Gardner botched this. I bet the Catch Probability was 50%-ish. Otherwise known as, if someone as good as Benny's in LF, he catches that, two runs are taken off the board, and maybe the Sanchez SF is a game winner. Biggest play of the game, yet no discussion.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 10, 2018 22:52:11 GMT -5
Mookie will be fine....he will be ready for Houston...good that the rest of the team is picking him up. Not worried about Mr Betts! I'd be worried if he looked a little messed up. Slight mechanical flaws can take 10 or 12 games to be fixed.
But he looked completely messed up. I think some extra BP and he'll be himself in the CS.
Oh, BTW, this team was good enough to beat the 100-win Yankees in 4 games with barely any offensive contribution from the game's second best offensive player.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 10, 2018 22:52:36 GMT -5
No baseball until Saturday is brutal. We in NC are awaiting the rain and winds from Michael. I am awaiting my carpal tunnel surgery on Friday...just want to get it behind me and feel good again - my third book is not happening until this gets fixed. Question - we only have basic cable - I don't want to go to the bar to watch each game (I will be as big as a house).... Anyone here use Sling or another App on Roku to get the TBS App and just pay for one month? Things used to be so easy when the games were on the major networks (yes, I am ageing myself!) Yes, I use Sling and it's gotten much, much better. I have the app on my phone and route it to the TV via a Chromecast dongle. It worked flawlessly during the NY series, very different than even a few months ago when it was almost unwatchable with ridiculous lagging behind and forward leaps. From my experience you should be able to sign on for a month then cancel after that. Note: if you want to watch on a smartphone that works very well also. That used to be weird as well, but it's been solid for quite a few months now. We used to pay ridiculous prices for 100 unused channels through Direct TV. We did away with that, I put up an antenna for regional over-the-air HDTV signals (Portland and Boise), signed up for sling and HBO, and we have more channels we actually watch at less than half the cost. More than enough savings for MLB AtBat to provide as many games as I care to watch which still only takes us to 50% of what we used to pay.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 10, 2018 22:57:11 GMT -5
Ryan Westmoreland Verified account @rwesty25
Please tune in! ESPN2 at 9am on Sunday !
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 10, 2018 23:04:41 GMT -5
Some thoughts I have going into the series with the Astros
Is the mgt scenario unprecedented - a bench coach on a World Series winning team takes a different team into a big series with his former team as a rookie manager? What a remarkable thing this is!
Mookie will get going quickly and have some big games and big hits.
I think we will score on Houston's staff, especially at Fenway, and our starters will keep us in the games.
Going in as slight underdogs will be a good thing - it will be motivating to the team...and Cora will use this motivation well.
Beyond that....don't want to say (superstitious? me? you bet!)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 10, 2018 23:33:21 GMT -5
Michael Silverman Verified account @mikesilvermanbb
John Henry on Cora: "My only criticism, after we interviewed him I went back to Dave & I said 'Dave, he's a little confident. In fact, he's overconfident.' But he was born to be a manager, he's a natural leader. I've never seen anybody do a better job of handling a clubhouse."
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Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2018 0:37:21 GMT -5
No baseball until Saturday is brutal. We in NC are awaiting the rain and winds from Michael. I am awaiting my carpal tunnel surgery on Friday...just want to get it behind me and feel good again - my third book is not happening until this gets fixed. Question - we only have basic cable - I don't want to go to the bar to watch each game (I will be as big as a house).... Anyone here use Sling or another App on Roku to get the TBS App and just pay for one month? Things used to be so easy when the games were on the major networks (yes, I am ageing myself!) Good luck under the knife...it should be easy-peasy. Sending you good vibes, as apparently so were our boys in red stockings.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 11, 2018 0:43:59 GMT -5
It is fun to help your team win. I claimed to be one the five happiest people in the stands when Drew hit the GS off of Fausto Roberto Hernandez Carmona in 2007 ALCS 6, since that was a personnel decision I was involved in from the outset (one of two; I was largely responsible for picking up Carlos Pena, but not letting him go!).
As far as the Sox position is concerned, I'm not qualified in terms of statistical chops, and I'd have to refresh my SQL and other database and programming skills on the fly. I'd want to learn R, for instance.
If I hadn't had something I knew I should pursue instead and that was much more important, I would have self-taught myself to an advanced statistics degree equivalent and done that programming update after I got laid off in early 2009, and pursued a full-time position. I am sitting on a bunch of (quite possibly original) ideas and I've thought about essentially selling them to somebody.
The funny thing is that I didn't start actively working on what my friends and family know as "the book" until three years later. At the time it was going to be a paper for the Journal of Consciousness Studies. Then a series of papers. Now a pair of books, the first doing double duty as both the full scholarly book and one that any college-educated person should be able to tackle, with the second being both a summary of the first for general readers, and an exploration of speculations that don't belong in the first book. Working titles are The Physical Mind and The Divine Universe.
The cool thing about this topic -- consciousness (in the sense of subjective experience) and free will -- is that it embraces two different branches of philosophy that aren't that informed about each other, plus heavy-duty neuroscience, plus conceptually heavy-duty physics. So there is no expert scholar who does not need basic stuff in multiple areas outside their expertise explained! That's why the scholarly book ends up as a book for smart general readers. When I realized that, it changed everything and was tremendously exciting.
The opening of the book, 212 words originally, is now 2540. If I'd known it was going to be twelve times as much work (and take twelve times as long) to explain everything to everybody, I might have balked. But now I'm all in.
The goal now is to write a version for philosophers of mind, i.e., that doesn't explain anything they don't know, and merely summarizes the chapters after the basic theory is introduced. That's a target that's actually in sight. And then get their feedback. Huh, that's funny. I'm also writing a book about consciousness. Go figger!
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Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2018 0:47:47 GMT -5
Also, I just want to thank all you folks for making this season so much more fun. I said it after the division clincher, but I’ll say it again, now (and hopefully twice more in the same jubilant fashion): this site has so greatly expanded my knowledge of, love for, and understanding of, baseball, that I want to thank each and every one of you for your contributions. Without going into comparing the merits of seasons (2004, I SEE you), this has been one helluva ride. From ST to today, it’s been just utter dominance. This is the best Sox team of my lifetime, and they’ve never let up in showing it. Vanquishing NY in NY, particularly in light of the preseason predictions and that scary stretch in May/June, where the Yankees briefly looked like they might actually be the better team...well, the script has flipped. The Sox, for all intents and purposes, own the Yankees these days. Onwards and upwards, all. Houston has a transcendent ballclub, so going through them after NY will put this team in a short list of all-time MLB greats. Bring it on.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 11, 2018 1:07:10 GMT -5
Ryan Westmoreland Verified account @rwesty25 Please tune in! ESPN2 at 9am on Sunday ! Gonna go downstairs right now and set up the DVR, because I have the attention span of a gnat. Thanks for the heads-up.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 11, 2018 1:56:59 GMT -5
Ryan Westmoreland Verified account @rwesty25 Please tune in! ESPN2 at 9am on Sunday ! Gonna go downstairs right now and set up the DVR, because I have the attention span of a gnat. Thanks for the heads-up. **wonders if he got sidetracked on the way, that would be me** Ever arrive at a destination and not remember why you went there ? Ryan Westmoreland is one of my very few sports/celebrity heroes. Unfortunately I don't have ESPN2, hopefully it will show up on Youtube somewhere.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 11, 2018 5:53:35 GMT -5
*if necessary SATURDAY, OCT. 13 Game 1: Astros at Red Sox, 8:09 p.m. ET (TBS) SUNDAY, OCT. 14 Game 2: Astros at Red Sox, 7:09 p.m. ET (TBS) TUESDAY, OCT. 16 Game 3: Red Sox at Astros, 5:09 p.m. ET (TBS) WEDNESDAY, OCT. 17 Game 4: Red Sox at Astros, 8:39 p.m. ET (TBS) THURSDAY, OCT. 18 *Game 5: Red Sox at Astros, 8:09 p.m. ET (TBS) SATURDAY, OCT. 20 *Game 6: Astros at Red Sox, 5:09 p.m. ET (TBS) SUNDAY, OCT. 21 *Game 7: Astros at Red Sox, 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS) Read more at: nesn.com/2018/10/red-sox-vs-astros-playoff-schedule-dates-tv-info-for-alcs-games/
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Post by costpet on Oct 11, 2018 7:04:47 GMT -5
I had that operation a few years ago. I stared at the clock. 13 minutes start to finish.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 11, 2018 9:57:19 GMT -5
Jeff Fletcher @jefffletcherocr
My 15-year-old son announced he’s rooting for the Yankees because “the Red Sox have won a lot more World Series in my lifetime.”
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Post by h11233 on Oct 11, 2018 10:10:03 GMT -5
@andrewmarchand On Get Up! Teixeira said Judge made “huge mistake” playing New York, New York at Fenway It was a terrible mistake. You mock your opponents after you beat them, not when the series is tied. Judge looks like a baller and a good dude, he will definitely learn from this. Judge is probably the only Yankee I've ever enjoyed watching. Obviously I don't know the guy, but he seems to be very genuine and, as you say, a good dude. I think this whole "New York, New York" thing is funny, and the players on both sides probably think so, as well.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 11, 2018 10:14:26 GMT -5
How colossally incompetent are the Globe baseball writers other than Speier?
Both Peter Abraham and Chris Gasper have stories in today's paper heaping the proper praise on Cora. Both talk about swapping in Holt and Devers in game 3 and then going back to Kinsler and Nunez in game 4, and how well those moves worked out.
Now, this was good managing, but all Cora was doing at 2B and 3B in this series was standard platooning. Tanaka has a big reverse split, so both Holt and Devers stayed on the bench in game 2. Nunez also loves Fenway. Severino has a bigger-than-average split and Yankee stadium has the short porch, so Holt and Devers in game 3 was obvious, and Sabathia has a big split, so going back to your RHB was obvious.
The only really interesting thing about these moves was that some of them (game 3 at least) defied the past-history data. Does either one mention that? No.
The first thing that Cora did that was anything but obvious was start his backup catcher in game 3.
CV was 2 for 8 with a BB and 3 SO against Severino, and Leon was 2 for 16 with a 3B and 4 SO against him, but if you've written the article correctly, you've already explained that these numbers have no predictive value if taken at face value and limited predictive value even if looked at closely (speaking from experience here as the guy who advised Tito on matchups in 2005 through mid-late 2007). Gee, if there were only a way to drive that point home to a skeptical readership. If only, say, Rafael Devers' first career hit off of Severino in 13 AB (he was 0 for 12, BB, 5 SO) had been the hardest ball he had hit in his MLB career. And if only that were the leadoff hit in an inning, and he'd scored, and we had gone on to win 16-1.
The point you have to make is that after correctly going with the platoon switching, you've done the opposite at catcher. You've removed a lefty bat and inserted a righty bat, and Severino eats mediocre righty hitters alive. It's true that Eovaldi has much better numbers with CV behind the plate than Leon, but it's dubious that that's meaningful, too, since Eovaldi started and ended the season with his innate brilliance and had what seems to be a dead=arm period in between.
CV goes 2 for 2 off of Severino, the first a cheap infield hit but the second a perfectly placed rope on a hit-and-run at the start of the decisive 7-run 4th.
The thing that Cora did that was a shock beyond belief was stick with CV in game 4. Leon had a .300 / .417 / .600 line against Sabathia (3 for 10, HR, 2 BB, 2 SO) while CV was 1 for 7 with a SO. Leon had caught all but one of Porcello's starts this year (Swihart had the other) and even though Porcello has almost identical career numbers with both guys and CV has caught 23 starts, Porcello is on record as saying Leon is the best he's ever thrown to.
It's unclear that there's any analytics behind this choice (gee, maybe ask Cora that?). It could be that CV is significantly better than Leon against pitchers that are Sabathia's type (that's the way I did it, and Vince Gennaro of SABR independently invented the same methodology and won the best research award at a conference with his presentation), and it could be that swing path analysis says so (they laid off the guy or guys who did that when they laid me off at the end of '08, and Zack Scott was pissed). But it seems likelier to me that Cora simply liked the way CV was swinging the bat -- something he my have seen in BP before game 3. CV is ultra streaky and when his mechanics are right, he's actually a good hitter.
Gee, if only Vazquez had done something worth mentioning in game 4, like hit a HR off of an ace reliever that proved to be the game-winning margin?
But neither of these stories mention the catchers at all. Both heap praise on Cora, talk about 2B and 3B, and then end the Cora-was-great talk there.
(And while you're on that topic, why not ask Cora about not pinch-hitting for CV with Holt in the 8th? Was that a mistake, or was there a cool reason that just didn't work out? Oh, and while we're at it, why not ask Holt what's up with all the home run hitting?)
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 11, 2018 10:30:18 GMT -5
In their defense, they watched John Farrell for five years. I can't blame them for thinking a manager correctly handling a standard platoon is revolutionary.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,312
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Post by radiohix on Oct 11, 2018 10:45:38 GMT -5
"stunned"
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 11, 2018 10:48:41 GMT -5
Would a better positioned Judge --6'7-- caught Vazquez HR? Just asking. Wondered about this myself....He drifted back and wasn't in position to make the kind of leap I've seen him make on numerous occasions this year. Was the wall higher where the ball went in? In any case Yanks done in by a Stadium homer...poetic Justice.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 11, 2018 10:52:52 GMT -5
How colossally incompetent are the Globe baseball writers other than Speier? Both Peter Abraham and Chris Gasper have stories in today's paper heaping the proper praise on Cora. Both talk about swapping in Holt and Devers in game 3 and then going back to Kinsler and Nunez in game 4, and how well those moves worked out.
Now, this was good managing, but all Cora was doing at 2B and 3B in this series was standard platooning. Tanaka has a big reverse split, so both Holt and Devers stayed on the bench in game 2. Nunez also loves Fenway. Severino has a bigger-than-average split and Yankee stadium has the short porch, so Holt and Devers in game 3 was obvious, and Sabathia has a big split, so going back to your RHB was obvious. The only really interesting thing about these moves was that some of them (game 3 at least) defied the past-history data. Does either one mention that? No.
The first thing that Cora did that was anything but obvious was start his backup catcher in game 3.
CV was 2 for 8 with a BB and 3 SO against Severino, and Leon was 2 for 16 with a 3B and 4 SO against him, but if you've written the article correctly, you've already explained that these numbers have no predictive value if taken at face value and limited predictive value even if looked at closely (speaking from experience here as the guy who advised Tito on matchups in 2005 through mid-late 2007). Gee, if there were only a way to drive that point home to a skeptical readership. If only, say, Rafael Devers' first career hit off of Severino in 13 AB (he was 0 for 12, BB, 5 SO) had been the hardest ball he had hit in his MLB career. And if only that were the leadoff hit in an inning, and he'd scored, and we had gone on to win 16-1. The point you have to make is that after correctly going with the platoon switching, you've done the opposite at catcher. You've removed a lefty bat and inserted a righty bat, and Severino eats mediocre righty hitters alive. It's true that Eovaldi has much better numbers with CV behind the plate than Leon, but it's dubious that that's meaningful, too, since Eovaldi started and ended the season with his innate brilliance and had what seems to be a dead=arm period in between. CV goes 2 for 2 off of Severino, the first a cheap infield hit but the second a perfectly placed rope on a hit-and-run at the start of the decisive 7-run 4th.
The thing that Cora did that was a shock beyond belief was stick with CV in game 4. Leon had a .300 / .417 / .600 line against Sabathia (3 for 10, HR, 2 BB, 2 SO) while CV was 1 for 7 with a SO. Leon had caught all but one of Porcello's starts this year (Swihart had the other) and even though Porcello has almost identical career numbers with both guys and CV has caught 23 starts, Porcello is on record as saying Leon is the best he's ever thrown to. It's unclear that there's any analytics behind this choice (gee, maybe ask Cora that?). It could be that CV is significantly better than Leon against pitchers that are Sabathia's type (that's the way I did it, and Vince Gennaro of SABR independently invented the same methodology and won the best research award at a conference with his presentation), and it could be that swing path analysis says so (they laid off the guy or guys who did that when they laid me off at the end of '08, and Zack Scott was pissed). But it seems likelier to me that Cora simply liked the way CV was swinging the bat -- something he my have seen in BP before game 3. CV is ultra streaky and when his mechanics are right, he's actually a good hitter. Gee, if only Vazquez had done something worth mentioning in game 4, like hit a HR off of an ace reliever that proved to be the game-winning margin? But neither of these stories mention the catchers at all. Both heap praise on Cora, talk about 2B and 3B, and then end the Cora-was-great talk there.
(And while you're on that topic, why not ask Cora about not pinch-hitting for CV with Holt in the 8th? Was that a mistake, or was there a cool reason that just didn't work out? Oh, and while we're at it, why not ask Holt what's up with all the home run hitting?)
Doesn't Holt and Devers prior history against Sevarino go against the grain of that ? By the way, prior to the game, he explained Vazquez. He said he used Vazquez because he makes contact and that's what they wanted for CC.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 11, 2018 10:53:19 GMT -5
No baseball until Saturday is brutal. We in NC are awaiting the rain and winds from Michael. I am awaiting my carpal tunnel surgery on Friday...just want to get it behind me and feel good again - my third book is not happening until this gets fixed. Question - we only have basic cable - I don't want to go to the bar to watch each game (I will be as big as a house).... Anyone here use Sling or another App on Roku to get the TBS App and just pay for one month? Things used to be so easy when the games were on the major networks (yes, I am ageing myself!) From what I can tell, you can't just pay for TBS and you'd have to get a trial or pay for a month of one of the major streaming services that include TBS, including Sling, DirecTV Now, Hulu Live, Youtube TV or Playstation Vue. It seems like most of them offer a free week trial, so you could try different ones to get through the ALCS. I believe the WS is on Fox, so you'll be good for that. The TBS app seems to require you to login to your cable account unless I'm missing something. Even just one month of one of these would be less than going out to a bar once I think if you did have to pay. www.groundedreason.com/watch-tbs-without-cable/
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redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,665
Member is Online
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 11, 2018 11:24:59 GMT -5
How colossally incompetent are the Globe baseball writers other than Speier? Both Peter Abraham and Chris Gasper have stories in today's paper heaping the proper praise on Cora. Both talk about swapping in Holt and Devers in game 3 and then going back to Kinsler and Nunez in game 4, and how well those moves worked out.
Now, this was good managing, but all Cora was doing at 2B and 3B in this series was standard platooning. Tanaka has a big reverse split, so both Holt and Devers stayed on the bench in game 2. Nunez also loves Fenway. Severino has a bigger-than-average split and Yankee stadium has the short porch, so Holt and Devers in game 3 was obvious, and Sabathia has a big split, so going back to your RHB was obvious. The only really interesting thing about these moves was that some of them (game 3 at least) defied the past-history data. Does either one mention that? No.
The first thing that Cora did that was anything but obvious was start his backup catcher in game 3.
CV was 2 for 8 with a BB and 3 SO against Severino, and Leon was 2 for 16 with a 3B and 4 SO against him, but if you've written the article correctly, you've already explained that these numbers have no predictive value if taken at face value and limited predictive value even if looked at closely (speaking from experience here as the guy who advised Tito on matchups in 2005 through mid-late 2007). Gee, if there were only a way to drive that point home to a skeptical readership. If only, say, Rafael Devers' first career hit off of Severino in 13 AB (he was 0 for 12, BB, 5 SO) had been the hardest ball he had hit in his MLB career. And if only that were the leadoff hit in an inning, and he'd scored, and we had gone on to win 16-1. The point you have to make is that after correctly going with the platoon switching, you've done the opposite at catcher. You've removed a lefty bat and inserted a righty bat, and Severino eats mediocre righty hitters alive. It's true that Eovaldi has much better numbers with CV behind the plate than Leon, but it's dubious that that's meaningful, too, since Eovaldi started and ended the season with his innate brilliance and had what seems to be a dead=arm period in between. CV goes 2 for 2 off of Severino, the first a cheap infield hit but the second a perfectly placed rope on a hit-and-run at the start of the decisive 7-run 4th.
The thing that Cora did that was a shock beyond belief was stick with CV in game 4. Leon had a .300 / .417 / .600 line against Sabathia (3 for 10, HR, 2 BB, 2 SO) while CV was 1 for 7 with a SO. Leon had caught all but one of Porcello's starts this year (Swihart had the other) and even though Porcello has almost identical career numbers with both guys and CV has caught 23 starts, Porcello is on record as saying Leon is the best he's ever thrown to. It's unclear that there's any analytics behind this choice (gee, maybe ask Cora that?). It could be that CV is significantly better than Leon against pitchers that are Sabathia's type (that's the way I did it, and Vince Gennaro of SABR independently invented the same methodology and won the best research award at a conference with his presentation), and it could be that swing path analysis says so (they laid off the guy or guys who did that when they laid me off at the end of '08, and Zack Scott was pissed). But it seems likelier to me that Cora simply liked the way CV was swinging the bat -- something he my have seen in BP before game 3. CV is ultra streaky and when his mechanics are right, he's actually a good hitter. Gee, if only Vazquez had done something worth mentioning in game 4, like hit a HR off of an ace reliever that proved to be the game-winning margin? But neither of these stories mention the catchers at all. Both heap praise on Cora, talk about 2B and 3B, and then end the Cora-was-great talk there.
(And while you're on that topic, why not ask Cora about not pinch-hitting for CV with Holt in the 8th? Was that a mistake, or was there a cool reason that just didn't work out? Oh, and while we're at it, why not ask Holt what's up with all the home run hitting?)
That last point is my biggest curiosity. I can see Cora saying Leon hasn't had a hit in 2 months (or so it seems) and he probably views him as an automatic out the way we do right now, so the 3-10 past history is meaningless if Leon is hopeless at the plate. The platoon stuff - yeah. Understandable. But the not pinch-hitting Holt for Vazquez against Betances, I totally don't get and don't understand why it wasn't asked. Ultimately it didn't matter, but.... Say you PH for Vazquez with Holt, what are the Yankees' options? Stay with their RH to face a hot LH batter who has been mashing the ball or switch to Chapman who is capable of walking just about anybody with a patient hitter like Holt at the plate? Not a great choice for NY. And then you go defense with Leon who is the best defensive catcher the Sox have. I just think a run or two there finishes off the ballgame and sends the Yankees fans to the exits. As it turned out Vazquez played excellent defense in the 9th and because the Sox didn't put the game away we had to sweat things out but it did make the game more exciting, especially those last two plays, the near grand slam and the unlikely awesome fielding plays from Nunez and Pearce at the end. Of course I can say that in retrospect.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,312
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Post by radiohix on Oct 11, 2018 11:28:22 GMT -5
MLB WHAT ARE YOU DOIN'?
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