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The Red Sox Offseason Thread: Who do you want for 2019?
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Post by sparkygian on Feb 8, 2019 13:14:48 GMT -5
I have to imagine Buchholz would rather have a full time starting gig that we can't offer him in Boston. true that, and I don't imagine he's the type for any sort of fireman role
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 8, 2019 13:51:10 GMT -5
What is holding up a Buchholz type player from signing? He's not getting big money. I can understand the big contract guys. Drag it out hope to get a good deal. I don't get the tons of low money guys not being able to even get a job. A few years ago the Phillies gambled on him for over 10 million. Yet after last year he can't even get signed? What he needs to take a minor league deal?
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Post by p23w on Feb 8, 2019 21:16:03 GMT -5
I am warm to the idea of Buchholz returning, but I'd sooner see Kimbrel on the roster.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 10, 2019 23:25:26 GMT -5
What is holding up a Buchholz type player from signing? He's not getting big money. I can understand the big contract guys. Drag it out hope to get a good deal. I don't get the tons of low money guys not being able to even get a job. A few years ago the Phillies gambled on him for over 10 million. Yet after last year he can't even get signed? What he needs to take a minor league deal? Probably. Alex Wilson just had to sign a minor league deal and would probably have been the third-best reliever on the Red Sox. Like if you told me "hey, the Red Sox are going to sign Alex Wilson and he's going to be the closer by the end of the year," I wouldn't have assumed that meant everything went to hell. A team of guys who are still free agents would project to win 85 games in the AL and miss the playoffs by a game, per PECOTA. They would have the AL's 5th-best offense. www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46928/banjo-hitter-pecota-projects-the-2019-all-free-agent-team/It's insane. I would be happy if the Red Sox signed literally ANY of those relievers.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 11, 2019 11:10:03 GMT -5
What is holding up a Buchholz type player from signing? He's not getting big money. I can understand the big contract guys. Drag it out hope to get a good deal. I don't get the tons of low money guys not being able to even get a job. A few years ago the Phillies gambled on him for over 10 million. Yet after last year he can't even get signed? What he needs to take a minor league deal? Probably. Alex Wilson just had to sign a minor league deal and would probably have been the third-best reliever on the Red Sox. Like if you told me "hey, the Red Sox are going to sign Alex Wilson and he's going to be the closer by the end of the year," I wouldn't have assumed that meant everything went to hell. A team of guys who are still free agents would project to win 85 games in the AL and miss the playoffs by a game, per PECOTA. They would have the AL's 5th-best offense. www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46928/banjo-hitter-pecota-projects-the-2019-all-free-agent-team/It's insane. I would be happy if the Red Sox signed literally ANY of those relievers. That's a great tool. Like I get the top four guys battling for huge deals. Yet reports have Harper and Machado turning down 300 and 250 million deals. So they are going to get paid. It's the rest of those guys that are getting killed. It really shows free agency being inefficient isn't the issue. I mean a ton of those guys could be great value. Most won't take more than one year deals at low money. The issue is that teams won't spend. Teams won't even gamble a few million of Vets. I just don't get it. A bunch of teams could look crazy smart signing a bunch of those guys. Given what the Mets and Reds have done they should keep going. Teams like the Padres can't afford to gamble on some Vets? It's like the idea of signing Vets to good deals to flip them latter on has disappeared completely. Don't get me started on the Red Sox bullpen. I just don't get it. It makes no sense given how good the team did compared to the mess that was Detriots Bullpen for years. To spend so much money yet nothing on the bullpen is mind blowing. I keep waiting for a signing or trade that brings DD grand plan into focus. I really hope I'm wrong and this bullpen doesn't kill us because we could even spend 5 to 10 million bringing in some more proven guys that are healthy.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 11, 2019 14:52:15 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 11, 2019 15:41:30 GMT -5
Ha. Should be required reading for this board. Here are the results of last year's free agent reliever signings. The Red Sox definitely should get on board with all of that avoid that market at all costs.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 11, 2019 15:48:00 GMT -5
I also love the tidbit that Brian Wilson in 2010 was the last closer who was the closer on opening day and also for the World Series clinching game. The other 8 teams used different pitchers for the final WS inning.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 11, 2019 16:18:48 GMT -5
I also love the tidbit that Brian Wilson in 2010 was the last closer who was the closer on opening day and also for the World Series clinching game. The other 8 teams used different pitchers for the final WS inning. That's an extremely literal interpretation though... Because Kimbrel was closer end-to-end this year. Carson Smith got the blown save in his stat line, but Kimbrel obviously was the closer. And Ken Giles was still nominally the closer for the Astros through the World Series, and their only save of the series was the 3 2/3-inning job by Peacock in Game 3.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 11, 2019 16:30:14 GMT -5
I also love the tidbit that Brian Wilson in 2010 was the last closer who was the closer on opening day and also for the World Series clinching game. The other 8 teams used different pitchers for the final WS inning. That's an extremely literal interpretation though... Because Kimbrel was closer end-to-end this year. Carson Smith got the blown save in his stat line, but Kimbrel obviously was the closer. And Ken Giles was still nominally the closer for the Astros through the World Series, and their only save of the series was the 3 2/3-inning job by Peacock in Game 3. They used Sale to clinch because Kimbrel was completely unreliable by then. That was the point. There is almost always a better pitcher to use than your closer that was named in spring training because relievers are so volatile.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Feb 11, 2019 17:19:34 GMT -5
So, what a few of you are saying is..WAR! What is it good for<<absolutely nothing!..say it again.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 11, 2019 18:30:10 GMT -5
So, what a few of you are saying is..WAR! What is it good for<<absolutely nothing!..say it again. Well use whatever stats you want other than saves to judge relief pitchers, be my guest. But don't say it's anything but awful free agency investments.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 11, 2019 18:35:29 GMT -5
It really doesn’t matter if last years investments were bad - only matters if this years would be
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 11, 2019 19:12:02 GMT -5
It really doesn’t matter if last years investments were bad - only matters if this years would be Unless last year started a trend. We could go back further. Maybe we could trade for Mark Melancon.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 11, 2019 19:22:52 GMT -5
It really doesn’t matter if last years investments were bad - only matters if this years would be Unless last year started a trend. We could go back further. Maybe we could trade for Mark Melancon. Chapman seems like a good investment. The first Andrew Miller deal was a steal. I think the moral of the story is chose wisely when it comes to relievers. Add- Both David Robertson deals seem like absolute value steals.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 11, 2019 22:02:06 GMT -5
So, what a few of you are saying is..WAR! What is it good for<<absolutely nothing!..say it again. WPA, in concert with WAR, says a lot, particularly for relievers. The WPA numbers are just as, if not more, underwhelming than WAR. Honestly, PF45’s “choose wisely” is very apropos. It’s also unrealistic to an extent. The truly reliable relievers: Wagner, Kimbrel, Rivera, Jansen, Hoffman, Chapman...are exceedingly rare. There’s probably only, at absolute BEST, one guy every couple-few years even approaching that realm. The next tier down...”good for a while”...(kind of like a 1/1a starter versus a true ace) like Andrew Miller only pops up one every year or every other year. I’d argue that, in terms of likelihood of fulfilling expectations/contract value, there’s at best one or maybe two relievers on the market in a good year. And the point of the article is just that: finding a quality reliever is a crapshoot, in large part. So it’s probably vastly more cost-effective to hoard cheap, talented but problematic arms, and see who shakes out.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 11, 2019 22:55:36 GMT -5
I would be interested in a similar study over a longer period of time than a single season. This is very interesting, but relievers throw 70-some-odd innings in a season. There's going to be variance in performance. And it's a one-year sample - even if we're looking at the first year after signing, I'd want to look at a larger sample over time.
And keep in mind there's some selection bias in the minor league deal guys, because those are the ones (I'd presume?) who were good enough in the minors to then pitch in the majors.
Anyway, the point with the Red Sox is a lack of depth. not signing, like, Adam Warren because they already have Zach Putnam would be beyond folly. Alex Wilson had to sign a minor league deal - at least get someone of that ilk!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 12, 2019 3:13:03 GMT -5
Last years free agent class wasn't that good. It's why Wade Davis got a massive deal and guess what he was worth 1.1 bwar. His 5th straight year over 1 bwar. You can say he's overpaid. Yet if you needed bullpen help he was a good bet to be a good pitcher. This years class is filled with guys with long histories of doing very well, not just breakout seasons.
I feel the exact same way, show me 3, 5, and 10 year data samples if you want to start making claims about free agent relievers. Using one year is nothing and everyone said last years free agency was overall a rather weak group.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 13, 2019 17:39:31 GMT -5
Davis was an elite RP from 14-16 and was very good in 17 although he significantly outpitched his peripherals that year. He was merely "good" last year likely in part due to Coors.
The other problem with using WAR for relievers for that exercise is they don't pitch much. Last year 9 RP were worth 2 fWAR, and only 5 were comfortably above 2.0 (only one, Stammen, was a free agent signing). Only 51 were worth 1.0 or more fWAR! What percentage of those were even free agent signings? Davis was a top 60 pitcher. That doesn't justify the contract, but it isn't so bad that the contract is irredeemable. It's not Sandoval being one of the worst players in the game. Like if the Rockies wanted to sell low and eat some of the contract to do so, 29 GMs should be interested.
Hell, Stammen and Watson (1.8) alone probably skew the data.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 13, 2019 20:57:43 GMT -5
Dallas Keuchel on a one-year deal. I mean, why not?
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Post by Canseco on Feb 13, 2019 20:59:46 GMT -5
Dallas Keuchel on a one-year deal. I mean, why not? I don’t trust anyone with an overly groomed beard.
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bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Feb 13, 2019 21:36:45 GMT -5
Dallas Keuchel on a one-year deal. I mean, why not? I believe he received a qualifying offer. I wouldn't want to surrender a draft pick for a one-year deal at decent money and an already solid rotation.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 13, 2019 21:45:32 GMT -5
Dallas Keuchel on a one-year deal. I mean, why not? Beyond the fact (I think?) that he has a QO, he'd be a #6 starter considering that he's on the downside and the Sox would have Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, and E-Rod penciled in ahead of him - don't think that would be appealing to him, nor would that make sense for the Sox to spend that kind of money on a starter. Then factor in that he'd push the Red Sox well over the luxury tax limit that they don't seem to want to cross and if they did, why not go over that limit with Kimbrel instead given their relief pitching needs? Ultimately I do think the Sox get a starter, but it'll probably be Swihart for a backend starter with options that they can bring up and down between Pawtucket and Boston, basically a #8 starter behind Johnson and Velazquez, given that Wright probably won't be starting anymore and that Shawaryn is probably the only other guy who get a start that has options.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 14, 2019 0:20:06 GMT -5
Dallas Keuchel on a one-year deal. I mean, why not? Beyond the fact (I think?) that he has a QO, he'd be a #6 starter considering that he's on the downside and the Sox would have Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, and E-Rod penciled in ahead of him - don't think that would be appealing to him, nor would that make sense for the Sox to spend that kind of money on a starter. Then factor in that he'd push the Red Sox well over the luxury tax limit that they don't seem to want to cross and if they did, why not go over that limit with Kimbrel instead given their relief pitching needs? Ultimately I do think the Sox get a starter, but it'll probably be Swihart for a backend starter with options that they can bring up and down between Pawtucket and Boston, basically a #8 starter behind Johnson and Velazquez, given that Wright probably won't be starting anymore and that Shawaryn is probably the only other guy who get a start that has options. The only way this would make sense to me would be if their INF defense were better (starting with more certainty re:Pedroia), and if they traded Porcello. And, really, while I think Keuchel has a marginally higher ceiling/overall performance curve than Porcello...if you’re talking 1-yr deals you’d have to find a team that liked Porcello (and the QO possibility) more than Keuchel, who that team could just sign in lieu of trading. I *really* hope they move Vazquez instead of Swihart. Doubt that happens, but I wish they would. Saves $ to spend mid-season and offers more upside, IMO, especially with León on board. I’d LOVE if Clay would be willing to return in a relief role. I think his stuff definitely ticks up and he’s got a bunch of pitches. He fixed his cutter last year, too. I think he’d be much less of an injury risk in relief, and he offers an option with legit upside to stretch out if a starter goes down. On a minor league deal, there’s zero risk. Have him talk to Eck...Clay was maddening in his Sox tenure, but he might be convinced to take a shot at an opportunity for greatness. His Sox career seems...incomplete.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 14, 2019 7:27:09 GMT -5
Beyond the fact (I think?) that he has a QO, he'd be a #6 starter considering that he's on the downside and the Sox would have Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, and E-Rod penciled in ahead of him - don't think that would be appealing to him, nor would that make sense for the Sox to spend that kind of money on a starter. Then factor in that he'd push the Red Sox well over the luxury tax limit that they don't seem to want to cross and if they did, why not go over that limit with Kimbrel instead given their relief pitching needs? Ultimately I do think the Sox get a starter, but it'll probably be Swihart for a backend starter with options that they can bring up and down between Pawtucket and Boston, basically a #8 starter behind Johnson and Velazquez, given that Wright probably won't be starting anymore and that Shawaryn is probably the only other guy who get a start that has options. The only way this would make sense to me would be if their INF defense were better (starting with more certainty re:Pedroia), and if they traded Porcello. And, really, while I think Keuchel has a marginally higher ceiling/overall performance curve than Porcello...if you’re talking 1-yr deals you’d have to find a team that liked Porcello (and the QO possibility) more than Keuchel, who that team could just sign in lieu of trading. I *really* hope they move Vazquez instead of Swihart. Doubt that happens, but I wish they would. Saves $ to spend mid-season and offers more upside, IMO, especially with León on board. I’d LOVE if Clay would be willing to return in a relief role. I think his stuff definitely ticks up and he’s got a bunch of pitches. He fixed his cutter last year, too. I think he’d be much less of an injury risk in relief, and he offers an option with legit upside to stretch out if a starter goes down. On a minor league deal, there’s zero risk. Have him talk to Eck...Clay was maddening in his Sox tenure, but he might be convinced to take a shot at an opportunity for greatness. His Sox career seems...incomplete. Any marginal upgrade anyone thinks they may be getting from Keuchel over Porcello should be negated by the fact Porcello is right handed. The last thing (hyperbole) this team needs is a fourth lefty in the rotation. I’m usually not big on the left versus right thing, but it matters against the Yankees especially in Yankee stadium.
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