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2018-19 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
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Post by orion09 on Feb 23, 2019 16:11:22 GMT -5
Can’t imagine this is true, but if it is... yikes. Does Kimbrel really think he’d get a bigger deal after being a year older and having not faced MLB hitters in 18 months?
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Post by jdb on Feb 23, 2019 16:16:08 GMT -5
Iglesias is a guy I wouldn’t hate replacing Xander if the contract demands got to pricey. Surprised he didn’t get a big league deal.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 23, 2019 16:27:16 GMT -5
Can’t imagine this is true, but if it is... yikes. Does Kimbrel really think he’d get a bigger deal after being a year older and having not faced MLB hitters in 18 months?He might feel that a team at the deadline would rather pay him than trade for a guy it he could think he’s made a ton of money, my daughter almost died so I’d rather stay home than be under paid.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 23, 2019 16:28:03 GMT -5
This... in what world would Marwin Gonzalez making 15m+ per year end up good for the team? The AAV was fine. 21 million dollars 2 years? That's the hang up here. Fine Zobrist was better 3 years ago. Salaries should be going up, not down with the increase in revenues through the years. Ok Zobrist was better, we agree so stop forcing the comp
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Post by orion09 on Feb 23, 2019 16:47:28 GMT -5
Can’t imagine this is true, but if it is... yikes. Does Kimbrel really think he’d get a bigger deal after being a year older and having not faced MLB hitters in 18 months?He might feel that a team at the deadline would rather pay him than trade for a guy it he could think he’s made a ton of money, my daughter almost died so I’d rather stay home than be under paid.
Both interesting points. Can't imagine a team giving him more than a .5 or maybe 1.5 year deal at the deadline. But either way, yeah, maybe he's viewing the situation as a sign to stay home and spend more time with his daughter.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 23, 2019 18:41:31 GMT -5
That’s a big salary comient on a per year basis though. He’s a fine player, with one very good year. Besides 2017, his career is very similar to Brock Holt. Is Brock Holt going to get a contract paying him over 10 million a year? Gonzalez has averaged 1.5 bWAR since 2014. Brock Holt has yet to reach 1 bWAR ever. Gonzalez has had at least 2.5 bWAR the past two seasons, including a 4.1 bWAR in 2017. Gonzalez is a MUCH better player. Are we looking at different stats? I see Holt’s bWAR by year since 2014 as: 2.1 2.6 1.2 0 1.3 Which is a1.4 bWAR Yeah Marwin has been better the last two years (especially in 2017), but really other than 2017, he’s been a 1 to 2 War player, which is exactly what Nrock Holt is. If you think Marwin will ever replicate 2017, you are more bullish on him than I am....
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 23, 2019 19:05:41 GMT -5
This... in what world would Marwin Gonzalez making 15m+ per year end up good for the team? The AAV was fine. 21 million dollars 2 years? That's the hang up here. Fine Zobrist was better 3 years ago. Salaries should be going up, not down with the increase in revenues through the years. That’s a big salary comient on a per year basis though. He’s a fine player, with one very good year. Besides 2017, his career is very similar to Brock Holt. Is Brock Holt going to get a contract paying him over 10 million a year? Gonzalez has averaged 1.5 bWAR since 2014. Brock Holt has yet to reach 1 bWAR ever. Gonzalez has had at least 2.5 bWAR the past two seasons, including a 4.1 bWAR in 2017. Gonzalez is a MUCH better player.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 23, 2019 20:57:53 GMT -5
Gonzalez has averaged 1.5 bWAR since 2014. Brock Holt has yet to reach 1 bWAR ever. Gonzalez has had at least 2.5 bWAR the past two seasons, including a 4.1 bWAR in 2017. Gonzalez is a MUCH better player. Are we looking at different stats? I see Holt’s bWAR by year since 2014 as: 2.1 2.6 1.2 0 1.3 Which is a1.4 bWAR Yeah Marwin has been better the last two years (especially in 2017), but really other than 2017, he’s been a 1 to 2 War player, which is exactly what Nrock Holt is. If you think Marwin will ever replicate 2017, you are more bullish on him than I am.... I looked at the stats wrong, still Brock Holt hasn't been the same player since the concusion. He turned into a 1- 1.5 bWAR player the past 3 years while Gonzalez has averaged 3 bWAR the last 2 years. I think it's safe to say right now Gonzalez is a better player.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 23, 2019 21:11:40 GMT -5
Are we looking at different stats? I see Holt’s bWAR by year since 2014 as: 2.1 2.6 1.2 0 1.3 Which is a1.4 bWAR Yeah Marwin has been better the last two years (especially in 2017), but really other than 2017, he’s been a 1 to 2 War player, which is exactly what Nrock Holt is. If you think Marwin will ever replicate 2017, you are more bullish on him than I am.... I looked at the stats wrong, still Brock Holt hasn't been the same player since the concusion. He turned into a 1- 1.5 bWAR player the past 3 years while Gonzalez has averaged 3 bWAR the last 2 years. I think it's safe to say right now Gonzalez is a better player. Ok so right now we’ve settled on Gonzalez is better than Holt and worse than Zobrist. Gonzalez makes more than Holt and less than Zobrist.... What is happening?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 23, 2019 21:48:26 GMT -5
I looked at the stats wrong, still Brock Holt hasn't been the same player since the concusion. He turned into a 1- 1.5 bWAR player the past 3 years while Gonzalez has averaged 3 bWAR the last 2 years. I think it's safe to say right now Gonzalez is a better player. Ok so right now we’ve settled on Gonzalez is better than Holt and worse than Zobrist. Gonzalez makes more than Holt and less than Zobrist.... What is happening? Holt hasn't made it to free agency yet. The market has completely gone to crap. It's just funny that the same people arguing that WAR is worth 7 million and defend it, yet a 3 WAR player on average (whose math adds up to around 21 million for one year according to this logic), is now worth 21 million for 2 years. Don't get it. Add- Heck I'd rather would have rather not wanted Pearce or Holt this off-season, I would have signed Gonzalez if he was going this cheap. Gonzalez is better than both of these players and is making 1 million more this year than Holt and Pearce this year. Or traded Moreland and Holt, then resigned Pearce.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 23, 2019 22:06:41 GMT -5
Ok so right now we’ve settled on Gonzalez is better than Holt and worse than Zobrist. Gonzalez makes more than Holt and less than Zobrist.... What is happening? Holt hasn't made it to free agency yet. The market has completely gone to crap. It's just funny that the same people arguing that WAR is worth 7 million and defend it, yet a 3 WAR player on average (whose math adds up to around 21 million for one year according to this logic), is now worth 21 million for 2 years. Don't get it. Add- Heck I'd rather would have rather not wanted Pearce or Holt this off-season, I would have signed Gonzalez if he was going this cheap. Gonzalez is better than both of these players and is making 1 million more this year than Holt and Pearce. I don’t think he’s a 3 WAR player. I don’t think he can repeat 2017. I think he is a probably a 1.5 to 2.0 win player (he’s been under 2 fWAR every year except 2017), who lacks a defensive position, and who will be 30 before the season starts. 10.5 million per year seems like a lot of money for that guy. If you think he can repeat 2017, then that’s another matter.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Feb 23, 2019 22:47:29 GMT -5
Can’t imagine this is true, but if it is... yikes. Does Kimbrel really think he’d get a bigger deal after being a year older and having not faced MLB hitters in 18 months?Greed and ego are very destructive. How much money does he need?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 24, 2019 4:18:45 GMT -5
Can’t imagine this is true, but if it is... yikes. Does Kimbrel really think he’d get a bigger deal after being a year older and having not faced MLB hitters in 18 months?
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 24, 2019 6:43:24 GMT -5
Can’t imagine this is true, but if it is... yikes. Does Kimbrel really think he’d get a bigger deal after being a year older and having not faced MLB hitters in 18 months?Greed and ego are very destructive. How much money does he need? You realize this could be the complete opposite of greed right? The guy has made A LOT of money. Maybe he’s placing a high cost on what it will take to pull him away from his family for 8 months a year.... I really don’t know one way or another but why are we so quick to put poor motives behind these guys? Add: or maybe we should consider the reports to be BS like the majority of them are this time of year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 24, 2019 6:45:32 GMT -5
Ok so right now we’ve settled on Gonzalez is better than Holt and worse than Zobrist. Gonzalez makes more than Holt and less than Zobrist.... What is happening? Holt hasn't made it to free agency yet. Then why are you talking about Holt?!?!?!🤦🏻♂️
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 24, 2019 7:51:28 GMT -5
Hanley signed a minor league deal with the Indians of Cleveland
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 24, 2019 10:19:56 GMT -5
Ok so right now we’ve settled on Gonzalez is better than Holt and worse than Zobrist. Gonzalez makes more than Holt and less than Zobrist.... What is happening? Holt hasn't made it to free agency yet. The market has completely gone to crap. It's just funny that the same people arguing that WAR is worth 7 million and defend it, yet a 3 WAR player on average (whose math adds up to around 21 million for one year according to this logic), is now worth 21 million for 2 years. Don't get it. Add- Heck I'd rather would have rather not wanted Pearce or Holt this off-season, I would have signed Gonzalez if he was going this cheap. Gonzalez is better than both of these players and is making 1 million more this year than Holt and Pearce this year. Or traded Moreland and Holt, then resigned Pearce. Pedro you are getting all hung up on what looks like one outlier career season. He hasn't been a 3 bwar type player for his career and I don't expect him to be one going forward. He got a very good deal in my opinion and I'm just not sure why you think this is an example of the market going to crap. There are a lot better cases. Our former SS having to take a minor league after a 2.2 bwar season is a perfect example of how the market sucks. A solid bullpen arm like Alex Wilson having to take a minor league deal is another one. So much focus is on the top guys, when it's really the lower level guys that are getting screwed.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 24, 2019 14:31:36 GMT -5
Holt hasn't made it to free agency yet. The market has completely gone to crap. It's just funny that the same people arguing that WAR is worth 7 million and defend it, yet a 3 WAR player on average (whose math adds up to around 21 million for one year according to this logic), is now worth 21 million for 2 years. Don't get it. Add- Heck I'd rather would have rather not wanted Pearce or Holt this off-season, I would have signed Gonzalez if he was going this cheap. Gonzalez is better than both of these players and is making 1 million more this year than Holt and Pearce this year. Or traded Moreland and Holt, then resigned Pearce. Pedro you are getting all hung up on what looks like one outlier career season. He hasn't been a 3 bwar type player for his career and I don't expect him to be one going forward. He got a very good deal in my opinion and I'm just not sure why you think this is an example of the market going to crap. There are a lot better cases. Our former SS having to take a minor league after a 2.2 bwar season is a perfect example of how the market sucks. A solid bullpen arm like Alex Wilson having to take a minor league deal is another one. So much focus is on the top guys, when it's really the lower level guys that are getting screwed. If we're going with seven million per WAR, Gonzalez's Steamer projection is for 1.5 WAR next year, and at his age you'd expect about the same in the second year of the deal as well. So, three WAR total, seven per WAR, $21m contract. He's getting paid fair value for his projections. If you want to complain about this deal, you have to present a compelling case that he's better than those projections, and I don't really see one.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 24, 2019 15:25:08 GMT -5
Holt hasn't made it to free agency yet. Then why are you talking about Holt?!?!?!🤦🏻♂️ Someone else brought Holt into the conversation.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 24, 2019 15:38:47 GMT -5
Holt hasn't made it to free agency yet. The market has completely gone to crap. It's just funny that the same people arguing that WAR is worth 7 million and defend it, yet a 3 WAR player on average (whose math adds up to around 21 million for one year according to this logic), is now worth 21 million for 2 years. Don't get it. Add- Heck I'd rather would have rather not wanted Pearce or Holt this off-season, I would have signed Gonzalez if he was going this cheap. Gonzalez is better than both of these players and is making 1 million more this year than Holt and Pearce this year. Or traded Moreland and Holt, then resigned Pearce. Pedro you are getting all hung up on what looks like one outlier career season. He hasn't been a 3 bwar type player for his career and I don't expect him to be one going forward. He got a very good deal in my opinion and I'm just not sure why you think this is an example of the market going to crap. There are a lot better cases. Our former SS having to take a minor league after a 2.2 bwar season is a perfect example of how the market sucks. A solid bullpen arm like Alex Wilson having to take a minor league deal is another one. So much focus is on the top guys, when it's really the lower level guys that are getting screwed. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/26068706/bryce-harper-9-others-most-pressure-2019Rival evaluators were “greatly surprised” that Marwin Gonzalez couldn’t find a three-year contract.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 25, 2019 8:34:21 GMT -5
Pedro you are getting all hung up on what looks like one outlier career season. He hasn't been a 3 bwar type player for his career and I don't expect him to be one going forward. He got a very good deal in my opinion and I'm just not sure why you think this is an example of the market going to crap. There are a lot better cases. Our former SS having to take a minor league after a 2.2 bwar season is a perfect example of how the market sucks. A solid bullpen arm like Alex Wilson having to take a minor league deal is another one. So much focus is on the top guys, when it's really the lower level guys that are getting screwed. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/26068706/bryce-harper-9-others-most-pressure-2019Rival evaluators were “greatly surprised” that Marwin Gonzalez couldn’t find a three-year contract. People who evaluate contracts for media purposes and these evaluators aren’t taking into account supply and demand for each player. It’d be extremely questionable for any team with a sub 150m payroll to allocate that much money to a utility player and even more so over multiple seasons.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 25, 2019 8:46:35 GMT -5
Ah yes, unnamed front office sources. A my favorite source for reliable, measured, not at all insane statements.
Anyway, completely dropping the $/WAR argument once we all pointed out that the contract is perfectly in line with that framework kinda says it all.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2019 9:01:18 GMT -5
People who evaluate contracts for media purposes and these evaluators aren’t taking into account supply and demand for each player. It’d be extremely questionable for any team with a sub 150m payroll to allocate that much money to a utility player and even more so over multiple seasons. If he's a 3 win player, he isn't a utility player though. Maybe people here thinks he isn't but he's averaged that the past 2 seasons. A 2.5 Win player (even last year) is better than what the Sox had at 4 different positions last year for example.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 25, 2019 9:04:05 GMT -5
People who evaluate contracts for media purposes and these evaluators aren’t taking into account supply and demand for each player. It’d be extremely questionable for any team with a sub 150m payroll to allocate that much money to a utility player and even more so over multiple seasons. If he's a 3 win player, he isn't a utility player though. Maybe people believe here he isn't but he's averaged that the past 2 seasons. A 2.5 Win player is better than what the Sox had at 4 different positions last year for example. This is another frustrating example of you ignoring all the responses to you just to say the same thing again. You've said that several times, people have said why they disagree with your or agree with the projection systems, and then, instead of responding to those points, you just kind of take your own point as fact and reiterate it. Literally so, in this case: you start with "if he's a 3 win player" after posts saying why they don't think that.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2019 9:08:16 GMT -5
If he's a 3 win player, he isn't a utility player though. Maybe people believe here he isn't but he's averaged that the past 2 seasons. A 2.5 Win player is better than what the Sox had at 4 different positions last year for example. This is another frustrating example of you ignoring all the responses to you just to say the same thing again. No I read it and I don't agree with it. If people thinks he's a utility player, then that's plain wrong.
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