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Post by telson13 on Aug 22, 2019 17:31:33 GMT -5
65-59 after the Baltimore win, 6 over .500, 124 games played, 38 remain. 25-13 needed to get to 90 wins. Best chances - 2 Balt, 4 Phila, 3 SD, 2 Col, 3 Angels, completion of KC, 3 Tor, 3 SF, 3 Tex, 3 Balt - 27 games - win 2/3 of them gets 18 wins Toughest games - 4 Tampa, 4 NY, 3 Minn - 11 games - win half of them gets 5-6 games That would be an 89-90 win season. So they have to do better than the above, I think. Lol I pegged them at 88 wins back in mid-May and honestly, I was leaning over back then, disappointed as I was. But for real...they should tank. Play young guys. Bring dudes up. See what they have. Get a good draft pick.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 17:34:00 GMT -5
65-59 after the Baltimore win, 6 over .500, 124 games played, 38 remain. 25-13 needed to get to 90 wins. Best chances - 2 Balt, 4 Phila, 3 SD, 2 Col, 3 Angels, completion of KC, 3 Tor, 3 SF, 3 Tex, 3 Balt - 27 games - win 2/3 of them gets 18 wins Toughest games - 4 Tampa, 4 NY, 3 Minn - 11 games - win half of them gets 5-6 games That would be an 89-90 win season. So they have to do better than the above, I think. Lol I pegged them at 88 wins back in mid-May and honestly, I was leaning over back then, disappointed as I was. But for real...they should tank. Play young guys. Bring dudes up. See what they have. Get a good draft pick. As I mentioned in a GDT, the Sox are probably finishing no higher than the 12th worst record no matter what they do. Too many bad teams with too many more losses ahead of the Sox. The Sox are stuck in no man's land this year, just a terrible spot to be in.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2019 8:02:39 GMT -5
Lol I pegged them at 88 wins back in mid-May and honestly, I was leaning over back then, disappointed as I was. But for real...they should tank. Play young guys. Bring dudes up. See what they have. Get a good draft pick. As I mentioned in a GDT, the Sox are probably finishing no higher than the 12th worst record no matter what they do. Too many bad teams with too many more losses ahead of the Sox. The Sox are stuck in no man's land this year, just a terrible spot to be in. This isn't the NBA. Unless you're going to get the top pick in a draft with a generational talent up top, the "no man's land" isn't terrible. You get more bonus money, for one thing. There are many rounds in which to sign potential impact players. And so forth.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2019 8:08:07 GMT -5
As I mentioned in a GDT, the Sox are probably finishing no higher than the 12th worst record no matter what they do. Too many bad teams with too many more losses ahead of the Sox. The Sox are stuck in no man's land this year, just a terrible spot to be in. This isn't the NBA. Unless you're going to get the top pick in a draft with a generational talent up top, the "no man's land" isn't terrible. You get more bonus money, for one thing. There are many rounds in which to sign potential impact players. And so forth. Baseball is set up differently, but I feel like most drafts are still built around that top 5 in the draft. Past that point, you're taking chances, picking players you like/most talented available etc. The Sox can find anyone, and they did last year with limited pool and picks. Still stinks to have a year like this and not even have a chance at a top 10 and maybe even a top 15 pick.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2019 8:25:35 GMT -5
Fair point. Sox could have put out there- JD Martinez Porcello Moreland Cashner
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 23, 2019 8:33:07 GMT -5
65-59 after the Baltimore win, 6 over .500, 124 games played, 38 remain. 25-13 needed to get to 90 wins. Best chances - 2 Balt, 4 Phila, 3 SD, 2 Col, 3 Angels, completion of KC, 3 Tor, 3 SF, 3 Tex, 3 Balt - 27 games - win 2/3 of them gets 18 wins Toughest games - 4 Tampa, 4 NY, 3 Minn - 11 games - win half of them gets 5-6 games That would be an 89-90 win season. So they have to do better than the above, I think. Lol I pegged them at 88 wins back in mid-May and honestly, I was leaning over back then, disappointed as I was. But for real...they should tank. Play young guys. Bring dudes up. See what they have. Get a good draft pick. Agreed - except looking at our 40 man, the young dudes are not inspiring - essentially all of them have been active at one time for another, albeit briefly, as band aids. We've already experienced the best that we have as to youth on our roster. That makes the remainder of the season less compelling for sure, esp as, if it look like now, playoffs are out of bounds for us.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 24, 2019 11:24:04 GMT -5
Lol I pegged them at 88 wins back in mid-May and honestly, I was leaning over back then, disappointed as I was. But for real...they should tank. Play young guys. Bring dudes up. See what they have. Get a good draft pick. As I mentioned in a GDT, the Sox are probably finishing no higher than the 12th worst record no matter what they do. Too many bad teams with too many more losses ahead of the Sox. The Sox are stuck in no man's land this year, just a terrible spot to be in. That’s kinda my point: it’s highly unlikely they make the playoffs, highly unlikely they really tank into great draft position. Since whatever they do they’re probably stuck in no-man’s land (the dreaded 85-88 win zone, with a somewhat concrete roster due in part to high payroll), they might as well focus all their energy on seeing if they can find some low-cost hidden value, ie starting McGrath and seeing if he’s a viable #5 candidate. There are obviously plenty of other moves they can make, maybe testing guys in different roles or seeing if anyone else from AA/AAA might be more than replacement level next year. But the focus should really be on 2020 especially, and beyond.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 24, 2019 16:32:48 GMT -5
As I mentioned in a GDT, the Sox are probably finishing no higher than the 12th worst record no matter what they do. Too many bad teams with too many more losses ahead of the Sox. The Sox are stuck in no man's land this year, just a terrible spot to be in. That’s kinda my point: it’s highly unlikely they make the playoffs, highly unlikely they really tank into great draft position. Since whatever they do they’re probably stuck in no-man’s land (the dreaded 85-88 win zone, with a somewhat concrete roster due in part to high payroll), they might as well focus all their energy on seeing if they can find some low-cost hidden value, ie starting McGrath and seeing if he’s a viable #5 candidate. There are obviously plenty of other moves they can make, maybe testing guys in different roles or seeing if anyone else from AA/AAA might be more than replacement level next year. But the focus should really be on 2020 especially, and beyond. I am not arguing but in baseball are you in "no man's land" by being middle of the pack?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 24, 2019 17:27:00 GMT -5
That’s kinda my point: it’s highly unlikely they make the playoffs, highly unlikely they really tank into great draft position. Since whatever they do they’re probably stuck in no-man’s land (the dreaded 85-88 win zone, with a somewhat concrete roster due in part to high payroll), they might as well focus all their energy on seeing if they can find some low-cost hidden value, ie starting McGrath and seeing if he’s a viable #5 candidate. There are obviously plenty of other moves they can make, maybe testing guys in different roles or seeing if anyone else from AA/AAA might be more than replacement level next year. But the focus should really be on 2020 especially, and beyond. I am not arguing but in baseball are you in "no man's land" by being middle of the pack? Absolutely not. There are not huge rewards for tanking like in the NFL, NHL or NBA.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 24, 2019 19:26:15 GMT -5
I am not arguing but in baseball are you in "no man's land" by being middle of the pack? Absolutely not. There are not huge rewards for tanking like in the NFL, NHL or NBA. Bonus pool money is the difference between a lot and a little less in MLB drafts though. There are some advantages to it, even if it's just that. Plus, Brendan McKay's are there in the top 5. So are Correa's and so forth. You can find talent in MLB drafts later like Mookie and Pujols, but you have to be more lucky than good in order to bank on that all the time. It'll be dissapointing to have a season like this and still pick in the 20 range in the draft. It could be headed that way. The Sox are so much better than the worst teams in baseball.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 24, 2019 22:07:43 GMT -5
Absolutely not. There are not huge rewards for tanking like in the NFL, NHL or NBA. Bonus pool money is the difference between a lot and a little less in MLB drafts though. There are some advantages to it, even if it's just that. Plus, Brendan McKay's are there in the top 5. So are Correa's and so forth. You can find talent in MLB drafts later like Mookie and Pujols, but you have to be more lucky than good in order to bank on that all the time. It'll be dissapointing to have a season like this and still pick in the 20 range in the draft. It could be headed that way. The Sox are so much better than the worst teams in baseball. So says the guy who always wants them to go over the 3rd tax threshold as if dropping 10 spots isn't anything that anyone should ever consider. Imagine if they did this year and had to lose $2.5-3 million on their draft pool. And regardless, MLB drafts are such an imperfect science that the team with the smallest draft pool could end up having the best draft. Every other sport has players that are so much closer to playing and starring in the league they're drafted for.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 24, 2019 22:24:43 GMT -5
Bonus pool money is the difference between a lot and a little less in MLB drafts though. There are some advantages to it, even if it's just that. Plus, Brendan McKay's are there in the top 5. So are Correa's and so forth. You can find talent in MLB drafts later like Mookie and Pujols, but you have to be more lucky than good in order to bank on that all the time. It'll be dissapointing to have a season like this and still pick in the 20 range in the draft. It could be headed that way. The Sox are so much better than the worst teams in baseball. So says the guy who always wants them to go over the 3rd tax threshold as if dropping 10 spots isn't anything that anyone should ever consider. Imagine if they did this year and had to lose $2.5-3 million on their draft pool. And regardless, MLB drafts are such an imperfect science that the team with the smallest draft pool could end up having the best draft. Every other sport has players that are so much closer to playing and starring in the league they're drafted for. The Sox could have DFA'd players and potentially shed payroll even after the deadline. If the Sox went over by potentially 1.5-3 million after the deadline, the Sox could have saved on the Moreland, Cashner, and Porcello contracts potentially. You could have both gone for it and still stepped back after. I could see a team taking on a Moreland contract for the rest of the year or a Cashner contract in the bullpen for the rest of the year and not blink a eye, especially with the waiver deadline gone.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 24, 2019 22:28:12 GMT -5
So says the guy who always wants them to go over the 3rd tax threshold as if dropping 10 spots isn't anything that anyone should ever consider. Imagine if they did this year and had to lose $2.5-3 million on their draft pool. And regardless, MLB drafts are such an imperfect science that the team with the smallest draft pool could end up having the best draft. Every other sport has players that are so much closer to playing and starring in the league they're drafted for. The Sox could have DFA'd players and potentially shed payroll even after the deadline. If the Sox went over by potentially 1.5 million after the deadline, the Sox could have saved on the Moreland, Cashner, and Porcello contracts potentially. You could have both gone for it and still stepped back after. I could see a team taking on a Moreland contract for the rest of the year or a Cashner contract in the bullpen for the rest of the year and not blink a eye, especially with the waiver deadline gone. All DFA'd players would still have to be paid and would still count against the luxury tax calculation. They couldn't shed any payroll after the deadline. It would be ridiculous to assume that any team is going to pay anyone they DFA'd.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 24, 2019 22:30:23 GMT -5
The Sox could have DFA'd players and potentially shed payroll even after the deadline. If the Sox went over by potentially 1.5 million after the deadline, the Sox could have saved on the Moreland, Cashner, and Porcello contracts potentially. You could have both gone for it and still stepped back after. I could see a team taking on a Moreland contract for the rest of the year or a Cashner contract in the bullpen for the rest of the year and not blink a eye, especially with the waiver deadline gone. All DFA'd players would still have to be paid and would still count against the luxury tax calculation. They couldn't shed any payroll after the deadline. If the team claims the contract or agrees to take on a portion, the Sox could have done both I think, but you disagree so no big deal.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 24, 2019 22:32:15 GMT -5
This isn't anything you ever argued for anyway. You just wanted them to blow past the threshold forever.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 24, 2019 22:39:01 GMT -5
I don't always want to go for it if the Sox need to reset, but there is a time and place where I want the Sox to go all out. This window was one of those times. Whether it was wrong to do it with the same core is hindsight being 3 games within a wildcard around the trade deadline.
I don't think Dombrowski could have even expected the collapse and franchise altering injuries post trade deadline, but I'm glad they did foresee it.
To your point, it would have been worse to be 10 spots back and *HAVING* to DFA players at that point.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 24, 2019 22:42:01 GMT -5
The only point I made is that the MLB draft is nowhere similar to any other sport's draft and thus the reward for tanking is not nearly as large as it is in other sports. For example, now that Andrew Luck retired, the Colts are not going to try to win any games this year so they can instantly find his replacement.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 24, 2019 23:39:33 GMT -5
70-61...131 down, 31 to go. Still alive. 18 road games, 13 home.
To get to 90 wins, 20-11 needed. To get to 93 wins, 23-8 (now that's a challenge).
3 Minnesota, 4 New York, and 4 Tampa are the toughest remaining.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 25, 2019 1:25:13 GMT -5
We've played 24% of our remaining schedule since we hit rock-bottom, and have gone 8-2. (Yes, I'm counting the suspension win.)
We've picked up 41% of the deficit to the Indians (from 11 to 6.5), 29% to the Rays (from 8.5 to 6), but just 15% to the A's (from 6.5 to 5.5).
The Rays are 5-5 in their last 10 and we have the 4 games with them. That is doable.
We're very unlikely to catch the A's.
When the Indians walked off on us on the 12th in the series opener, they had won 9 of 11, including taking 3 of 4 in Minnesota. They are 4-7 since, but it was against us, the Yankees, and the Mets; they've won 2 in a row against the Royals, which tells you very little. The game that hopefully turned both of our seasons around: we blow a 6-1 lead with Workman getting the BS, JBJ goes yard, Cashner gets his first career save.
And it was Chris Sale's last start of the year.
The Indians' schedule:
7 White Sox (12-9, including winning series from Min and Hou, after an epic 6-19 run after a 41-42 start)
6 Twins
6 Tigers 3 Phillies 3 Rays 3 Nationals
1 Royals (today)
Except for the Tigers and White Sox, that's reasonably tough. So which version of the White Sox shows up will be crucial.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 25, 2019 9:35:32 GMT -5
That’s kinda my point: it’s highly unlikely they make the playoffs, highly unlikely they really tank into great draft position. Since whatever they do they’re probably stuck in no-man’s land (the dreaded 85-88 win zone, with a somewhat concrete roster due in part to high payroll), they might as well focus all their energy on seeing if they can find some low-cost hidden value, ie starting McGrath and seeing if he’s a viable #5 candidate. There are obviously plenty of other moves they can make, maybe testing guys in different roles or seeing if anyone else from AA/AAA might be more than replacement level next year. But the focus should really be on 2020 especially, and beyond. I am not arguing but in baseball are you in "no man's land" by being middle of the pack? Sort of, but there’s a special kind of no-man’s land that exists for a team in that territory/better part of middle-pack (slightly above .500, good enough to try to win, but hamstrung by payroll problems). It’s not like a young team on the rise where this was a breakout year and winning 86 or whatever games portends great things. It’s an established team that really can’t cut much or add much payroll, and has a thin minor league system, so they’re basically stuck with what they have...they can’t afford an impact free agent and can’t look forward to an impact prospect. It’s tough for teams in that spot, because they’re often too good to tear down, but the chances they improve are slim and options limited. The 2009-2013 Sox were in that space, with one last big hurrah before the awful crash.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 25, 2019 9:40:08 GMT -5
Jose Ramirez has a broken hamate bone which he broke on a swing. That's a blow for the Indians. He had a 168 wRC+ in the 2nd half.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 25, 2019 9:50:05 GMT -5
The Red Sox' season looks a lot worse than it really is IMO. One, they're only 5 games behind the Yankees by pythag. That's a huge swing from the 14 games they are behind. Two, the competition for the Wild Card is unusually strong this season in the AL. They'd be fighting for the first WC spot in the NL instead of 6 games behind the 2nd spot in the AL.
There's no reason why they wouldn't be right back near the top next season, just with some regression to the norm even without any improvement. But there's also reason to expect improvement.
They're not in no-man's land.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 25, 2019 12:01:47 GMT -5
The Red Sox' season looks a lot worse than it really is IMO. One, they're only 5 games behind the Yankees by pythag. That's a huge swing from the 14 games they are behind. Two, the competition for the Wild Card is unusually strong this season in the AL. They'd be fighting for the first WC spot in the NL instead of 6 games behind the 2nd spot in the AL. There's no reason why they wouldn't be right back near the top next season, just with some regression to the norm even without any improvement. But there's also reason to expect improvement. They're not in no-man's land. The Red Sox' team pitching is 18th in ERA (4.66) but 9th in FIP (4.25), which is pretty remarkable considering the team has very solid defense overall. The starters have a 5.01 ERA and you'd really hope and expect they'll be able to improve in that department next season. So all around, yeah, there's every reason to think the Red Sox will be a top competitor in 2020. The Yankees, by the way, are 18th in FIP, and 23rd in fangraphs' defensive metric, and the combined WAR they've gotten out of Judge, Sanchez, and Stanton is less than the Red Sox have gotten out of each of Bogaerts, Devers, and Betts alone; that team has somehow had both a world-historically awful rash of injuries and one of the luckiest seasons ever. It doesn't make any damn sense. ADD: The Yankees lead the Red Sox in total fWAR 40.4 to 39.5, yet they're 14 games up. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 25, 2019 13:06:33 GMT -5
Let's stay with the math - going into today, Fangraphs has our playoff chances up to 6.4%, 538 at 4%, Baseball Reference at 3.3% and ESPN at 6.4%
Baseball Reference as our Pythagorean at 73-58 (record is 70-61). MFY Pyth is at 78-53 (their record is 84-47).
We are a bit worse than our stats indicate, and they are much better. Go figure.
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Post by patford on Aug 25, 2019 13:30:20 GMT -5
Beeks and his 90mph FB getting hammered.
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