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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2019 1:42:14 GMT -5
When you need someone to catch up to you in the loss column, it's a good thing when they have more games remaining than you. I don't think you want them to have games in hand. If they win both they gain a game on you. It depends on how well they're going. A white hot team with games in hand is discouraging. A struggling team with games in hand is a good thing. It's also true that teams with games in hand have fewer off days, and off days are good at this time of the year.
We (hot) and the Indians (cold) have a game in hand on the Rays; both of those are good. The A's have a game in hand on us; that's probably neutral.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 3, 2019 21:49:54 GMT -5
After Porcello's "yuck" performance...time is a wastin'.
74-64. only 24 games left. Chasing three teams. 82, 80 and 78 wins - Tampa (21 games remain), Cleveland (23), and Oakland (26)..
We need 16-8 to get to 90 wins, 19-5 to get to 93 wins. Long shot, growing longer. This was a bad one to lose, but so typical of this season.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 4, 2019 0:18:33 GMT -5
its not gonna happen
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 4, 2019 1:58:36 GMT -5
It didn't help that the A's and Cleveland won while Tampa split a doubleheader.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 4, 2019 22:23:47 GMT -5
A win - 75-64 - 23 games to go.
15-8 gets us 90 wins, 18-5 gets us 93. Team needs to play near perfect ball - and we need help. Still - we live on!
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 5, 2019 21:21:18 GMT -5
A loss - 75-65 - 22 games to go.
90 wins now requires 15-7, 93 wins a near impossible 18-4 (considering who we are playing, and our performances at home). Fat lady starting to warm up her voice?
Down to a 2% playoff chance at 538, 5.6% at FanGraphs.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 5, 2019 22:26:35 GMT -5
A loss - 75-65 - 22 games to go. 90 wins now requires 15-7, 93 wins a near impossible 18-4 (considering who we are playing, and our performances at home). Fat lady starting to warm up her voice? Down to a 2% playoff chance at 538, 5.6% at FanGraphs. So what's the tragic number? 15?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 6, 2019 21:45:53 GMT -5
Let's play this string out...
76-65 after beating the MFY tonight - 21 games to go.
14-7 gets us 90, 17-4 gets us 93, but we are at about a 2% chance of pulling off the miracle.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 7, 2019 10:13:51 GMT -5
MLB's math on how they calculate pythag record is confusing.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 7, 2019 10:36:33 GMT -5
MLB's math on how they calculate pythag record is confusing. 99 runs isn't quite as good a differential for the Red Sox because their total number of runs scored and allowed is higher than the other two. They've outscored their opponents by the same number of runs, but a slightly lower percentage of runs.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 7, 2019 13:11:43 GMT -5
Hmm, I was looking at it as +99 divided by number of games played instead of +99 divided by number of total runs. The average margin of victory among all games would be pretty close to identical.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 7, 2019 13:15:09 GMT -5
Right, but with larger variance.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 8, 2019 22:37:04 GMT -5
After "Yuck" on Sunday night, we are 76-67, 143 played, 19 remaining.
Just to get to 90 wins would require 14-5. But we are 8-8 in our last 16. We are 27-26 in the second half of the season.
Tampa, Cleveland, Oakland and Minnesota already have 86, 83, 84 and 88 wins. 90 won't do it.
My latest thinking is that we will go 12-7 and end up with 88 wins, but that may be optimistic.
Magic number for wild card elimination is 12.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 11, 2019 0:00:29 GMT -5
This is wOBA+ for three situations:
Innings 1-6, Innings 7+ (all), Innings 7+ with tying or go-ahead run on base.
2018: 107, 110, 119 (4th in MLB) 2019: 106, 108, 77 (29th)
Imagine how the season plays out if we'd put up a .381 wOBA in those 221 crucial PA's, which is what 119 would be this year. Instead of the actual .247.
That's hitting collectively like 2019 Mookie Betts (before tonight) rather than Chris Davis. Although Davis has actually been a bit better (.254). The worst hitter in MLB with 400+ PA this year is Orlando Arcia at .270.
When the season's over I'll run the numbers and exclude the last bucket from the second.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 11, 2019 20:48:58 GMT -5
Thank you, I was a tad in a rush and see what I did wrong there. I thought that number was a tad outlandish, but ran with it anyways. Not impossible to ask for 58% ball, but you're asking the Yankees and Rays to play sub-.500 with games in hand. I'll make you a leave the board forever bet that the Red Sox win 93 games. It's a good thing we didn't honor this bet Just some friendly jabbing at the end of an otherwise depressing season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 11, 2019 20:53:27 GMT -5
RIP 2019 Red Sox.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 12, 2019 11:18:59 GMT -5
I'll make you a leave the board forever bet that the Red Sox win 93 games. It's a good thing we didn't honor this bet Just some friendly jabbing at the end of an otherwise depressing season. Congratulations on knowing that every possible thing that could go wrong, did go wrong. If they could replay the season 1000 times with the same roster, I bet the average number of wins is more than 93.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 12, 2019 11:25:08 GMT -5
It's a good thing we didn't honor this bet Just some friendly jabbing at the end of an otherwise depressing season. Congratulations on knowing that every possible thing that could go wrong, did go wrong. If they could replay the season 1000 times with the same roster, I bet the average number of wins is more than 93. Don’t look now, but it looks like the organization is looking to trade Betts this off-season and might also not re-up JDM if he opts out (which is shocking to me to give up on both, if they do). They shot themselves in the foot this year with their slow start. Eventually teams get hot and cold and they couldn’t afford another extended cold streak. They were also losing games with a mostly healthy team and injuries happen to everyone. FWIW, if they had rolled out the exact same team I would agree with you they’d win more than 93. It was a good team on paper.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 12, 2019 11:54:33 GMT -5
It's a good thing we didn't honor this bet Just some friendly jabbing at the end of an otherwise depressing season. Congratulations on knowing that every possible thing that could go wrong, did go wrong. If they could replay the season 1000 times with the same roster, I bet the average number of wins is more than 93. I'm sure if they could replay the 2018 season 1000 times there's probably only 1 scenario in which you get 108 wins plus 11 more steamrolling high quality opponents - fortunately for the Red Sox, it was the only 1 scenario that really happened. The 2019 Red Sox are the evil twin of the 2018 Red Sox. I'm sure if you roll out the same roster of the 2019 Red Sox and play the season over 1000 times you're hard pressed to find a result worse than the 84-78 or whatever finish the Sox will have this year, but ultimately for now and the future direction of the franchise, that's the one that actually matters. You can't live in a virtual world of what should be's. You have to deal with the realities of what actually resulted. I give credit to redsoxfan2 in this: at first I didn't take seriously his getting killed by quality opponents argument, but it was ultimately spot on in my opinion. You would expect a really, really good team to play near .500 ball against teams of the same caliber and play somewhere in the .667 - .700 range against mediocre to terrible ballclubs to kind of balance out to the .600 winning pct you'd expect them to hover near. The Red Sox were horrendous against the iron of the AL, not even competitive. I just figured the starting pitching would come around at some point and regress (or is it progress) to the mean and perform better than it had - and it never really happened, and whatever key hits they were getting last year ceased to happen this year. It's kind of crazy when you're down a run in the 9th and you have Betts, JDM, or Devers up and you don't expect them to come through with the big hit to tie or win the game. Hell last year, you almost kind of expected them to get that big hit even if Blake Swihart was coming up in that situation. It's truly the tale of two totally opposite seasons with virtually the same team.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 12, 2019 12:03:15 GMT -5
Being without Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Brian Johnson for a lot of the season, not having Wright all year and Porcello having a terrible season is not what anyone could have possibly predicted before the season started. They started with 7 starters and wound up with 2, one of whom was Porcello. Who called that the Red Sox would be going with 3 bullpen games per rotation by September? If we KNEW that was going to happen, then predicting this season would be easy.
But predicting that to happen is the only way you could possibly be right for the right reason. Otherwise, it was just luck that it turned out as negatively as some people believed early in the season.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 12, 2019 12:16:01 GMT -5
Being without Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Brian Johnson for a lot of the season, not having Wright all year and Porcello having a terrible season is not what anyone could have possibly predicted before the season started. They started with 7 starters and wound up with 2, one of whom was Porcello. Who called that the Red Sox would be going with 3 bullpen games per rotation by September? If we KNEW that was going to happen, then predicting this season would be easy. But predicting that to happen is the only way you could possibly be right for the right reason. Otherwise, it was just luck that it turned out as negatively as some people believed early in the season. These aren't pre-season predictions we're talking about. It was April/May after their poor stretch. I never bet against this team until after the season was underway. Sale didn't get hurt until semi-recently when their hopes was already bleak. I believe he went down Aug 17th when they were 6 out of the playoffs and 5.5 out of 1st loser. Brian Johnson and Stephen Wright are non-factors. They're 6th/7th starters/long-man at best. Relying on anything from Wright especially is folly. He was already suspended for PEDs, couldn't play in October and doesn't have a great track record. Porcello is/was disappointing. Was hoping he'd come around at some point. Eovaldi, again, think he was hurt already when this thread was made, was an organizational mistake. I wanted him back, but if you're relying on a guy who is hurt every year, that's on you. Price also isn't nearly the ace he used to be and for awhile he helped keep the team afloat, but injuries and cold stretches happen all the time. They needed to play .600 ball for the remainder of the season and couldn't. It's primarily the fault of 2 horrific stretches of play that sunk their season. Even still, the injuries, up until Price and Sale weren't nearly as troublesome as what the Yankees had to overcome and are still dealing with. Same with the Rays losing Snell and Glasnow.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 2, 2019 9:00:11 GMT -5
Just a random thought, but it still blows my mind that this team went 38-43 at home this year.
Being 28-45 against .500+ teams was indicative that this team just couldn't beat the better teams this year. In fact, the Indians missed the playoffs because of this as well as they were 25-39 against .500+ teams while the two teams who made it, Oakland and Tampa, were 35-27 and 38-35 respectfully. Minnesota having been 32-37 makes me not like their chances in October, but we'll see. Obviously anything can happen once you're in.
The Red Sox run differential +73, but the teams ahead were +112 (Indians), +113 (Rays), +165 (Oakland) so they also certainly weren't crushed terribly by luck (unlike the Indians who had an 93 xW-L, same as Tampa).
Their RS was better than any of the AL WC contenders (worse than all division winners), but they just allowed far too many runs (828 compared to 657, 656, 680 between Cleveland, Rays and Oakland respectively). Houston has a scary staff with having allowed only 640 runs all season.
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