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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 31, 2019 22:14:46 GMT -5
59-50 53 games remain
31-22. - .585 - gets them to 90 34-19. - .642 - gets them 93
My guess is 88 wins
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 1, 2019 7:34:16 GMT -5
59-50 53 games remain 31-22. - .585 - gets them to 90 34-19. - .642 - gets them 93 My guess is 88 wins To highlight this more: March: 1- 3| .250 April: 12- 14| .462 May: 16- 11| .593 June: 15- 12| .556 July: 15- 10| .600
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 1, 2019 13:24:40 GMT -5
Rehashing an old argument about the value of the 1-game play-in and what I was saying earlier in the year, granted a straight sell was a bit strong on my part. Dave Dombrowski, the president of baseball operations, on the 1-game play-in:
He didn't sell, but his excuse for not buying is because they weren't playing for a division. Basically he sees it as just roll the dice with what you have and maybe something good will happen. He got Cashner because they literally didn't have a 5th starter. Velazquez was basically an automatic forfeit.
I do wonder what this team would have done if they went 2-5 or 3-6 before the deadline.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 1, 2019 13:58:36 GMT -5
Rehashing an old argument about the value of the 1-game play-in and what I was saying earlier in the year, granted a straight sell was a bit strong on my part. Dave Dombrowski, the president of baseball operations, on the 1-game play-in: He didn't sell, but his excuse for not buying is because they weren't playing for a division. Basically he sees it as just roll the dice with what you have and maybe something good will happen. He got Cashner because they literally didn't have a 5th starter. Velazquez was basically an automatic forfeit. I do wonder what this team would have done if they went 2-5 or 3-6 before the deadline. Funny thing is if you have a dominant Chris Sale then the Wild Card play-in game feels less like a crapshoot, but he knows that's not the case this year.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 1, 2019 20:57:49 GMT -5
Tick tock
Tick tock
Tick tock
It’s getting close to tank season.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 1, 2019 21:54:17 GMT -5
Tick tock Tick tock Tick tock It’s getting close to tank season. If you want to be more accurate it would be called "playing out the string". They're not going to lose every game so that they can try to catch Baltimore or Detroit. The Sox will do what they do. They'll go beat up on KC and Toronto and eventually beat up on the Orioles again. They'll win their fair share of games and wind up in the high 80s/low 90s win total and watch the playoffs on TV. If we're being serious, it's too early to give up on the season but it's not too early to believe that the Sox just might not have what it takes to make the post-season this year.
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Post by hammerhead on Aug 2, 2019 1:13:05 GMT -5
Rehashing an old argument about the value of the 1-game play-in and what I was saying earlier in the year, granted a straight sell was a bit strong on my part. Dave Dombrowski, the president of baseball operations, on the 1-game play-in: He didn't sell, but his excuse for not buying is because they weren't playing for a division. Basically he sees it as just roll the dice with what you have and maybe something good will happen. He got Cashner because they literally didn't have a 5th starter. Velazquez was basically an automatic forfeit. I do wonder what this team would have done if they went 2-5 or 3-6 before the deadline. Funny thing is if you have a dominant Chris Sale then the Wild Card play-in game feels less like a crapshoot, but he knows that's not the case this year. But it's not just that one game crapshoot. It's also about playing meaningful, engaging, competitive games as long into the fall as possible. It should be about keeping fans involved, keeping television ratings up, it should be about pride and doing everything within your power to win games. But this ownership could care less. They know they have pinkhats and corporate clients that will fill the seats because of the landmark ballpark. They have their television deal.... But fans like us will tune out as soon as they're not within sniffing distance of the wildcard. The only chance of engagement will be if and when the kids get a chance. This is part of the reason the sport is dying. Ownership could give two craps about fans like us, who live and die with this team, but who can only afford to attend one or two games. I worry about the sport, imagine if we were Kansas City.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 2, 2019 6:56:04 GMT -5
Funny thing is if you have a dominant Chris Sale then the Wild Card play-in game feels less like a crapshoot, but he knows that's not the case this year. But it's not just that one game crapshoot. It's also about playing meaningful, engaging, competitive games as long into the fall as possible. It should be about keeping fans involved, keeping television ratings up, it should be about pride and doing everything within your power to win games. But this ownership could care less. They know they have pinkhats and corporate clients that will fill the seats because of the landmark ballpark. They have their television deal.... But fans like us will tune out as soon as they're not within sniffing distance of the wildcard. The only chance of engagement will be if and when the kids get a chance. This is part of the reason the sport is dying. Ownership could give two craps about fans like us, who live and die with this team, but who can only afford to attend one or two games. I worry about the sport, imagine if we were Kansas City. Who's the real pink hat here?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 2, 2019 20:42:08 GMT -5
Looking like 59-52 after tonight...only 7 over .500, 51 games remain. To win 90, need to go 31-20, .608 clip. For 93 wins, 34-17, .667. Road to postseason narrower.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 2, 2019 20:53:30 GMT -5
Stick a fork in the Sox.
They are DONE.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 2, 2019 21:14:47 GMT -5
Rehashing an old argument about the value of the 1-game play-in and what I was saying earlier in the year, granted a straight sell was a bit strong on my part. Dave Dombrowski, the president of baseball operations, on the 1-game play-in: He didn't sell, but his excuse for not buying is because they weren't playing for a division. Basically he sees it as just roll the dice with what you have and maybe something good will happen. He got Cashner because they literally didn't have a 5th starter. Velazquez was basically an automatic forfeit. I do wonder what this team would have done if they went 2-5 or 3-6 before the deadline. I don't understand the point of your post. He didn't sell. That was the point before, wasn't it? Would they be sellers and most said at the time -- no, didn't they? And most were in agreement at this latest time not to sell also, isn't that right?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 2, 2019 21:23:10 GMT -5
Rehashing an old argument about the value of the 1-game play-in and what I was saying earlier in the year, granted a straight sell was a bit strong on my part. Dave Dombrowski, the president of baseball operations, on the 1-game play-in: He didn't sell, but his excuse for not buying is because they weren't playing for a division. Basically he sees it as just roll the dice with what you have and maybe something good will happen. He got Cashner because they literally didn't have a 5th starter. Velazquez was basically an automatic forfeit. I do wonder what this team would have done if they went 2-5 or 3-6 before the deadline. I don't understand the point of your post. He didn't sell. That was the point before, wasn't it? Would they be sellers and most said at the time -- no, didn't they? And most were in agreement at this latest time not to sell also, isn't that right? Point is, I feel like both sides were wrong here. People were chatting up how you have to buy in if you're in contention and just being in is enough. Well, Dombrowski disagreed. He just took the passive approach in doing nothing. He's letting them have their chance without wasting any assets. Honestly, he should have sold. I hate that approach more than anything.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 2, 2019 21:33:23 GMT -5
I don't understand the point of your post. He didn't sell. That was the point before, wasn't it? Would they be sellers and most said at the time -- no, didn't they? And most were in agreement at this latest time not to sell also, isn't that right? Point is, I feel like both sides were wrong here. People were chatting up how you have to buy in if you're in contention and just being in is enough. Well, Dombrowski disagreed. He just took the passive approach in doing nothing. He's letting them have their chance without wasting any assets. Honestly, he should have sold. I hate that approach more than anything. I agree. If he wasn't going to improve the roster and really didn't believe in their ability to win then perhaps he should have dealt away Moreland, Holt, Workman, and Porcello (if that would have been possible), and Cashner, too. Otherwise he should have tried for some smaller upgrades that wouldn't cost anything outside of their top 20 or so as far as prospects go. It's true that helping the pen wouldn't have stopped this latest slide, but if Dombrowski truly believed their starters would get their act together, then he would try to fix the pen. This tells me he really didn't believe that the starters would get their act together. And let's face it - outside of getting Cashner, there wasn't much they could have done to upgrade the rotation. They're locked into those guys for 2019 and 3 of those guys beyond.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 2, 2019 21:48:41 GMT -5
I don't understand the point of your post. He didn't sell. That was the point before, wasn't it? Would they be sellers and most said at the time -- no, didn't they? And most were in agreement at this latest time not to sell also, isn't that right? Point is, I feel like both sides were wrong here. People were chatting up how you have to buy in if you're in contention and just being in is enough. Well, Dombrowski disagreed. He just took the passive approach in doing nothing. He's letting them have their chance without wasting any assets. Honestly, he should have sold. I hate that approach more than anything. Well we can agree to disagree. I think anyone suggesting before or after Balt series we are sellers was wrong then and wrong now if they meant it back then. You aren't sellers at that point in time and DD didn't sell. There is no "if and or buts." DD did buy in he bought a starter. And he didn't sell in which he has the most expensive team in baseball. They weren't sellers and they "bought." IMo it cant be twisted any other way. Further I don't think there was as much discussion as you might be implying about "buying more" in terms of many who imo believe like I did "you don't sell" had a realistic approach that the Sox weren't going over that 3rd cap. Bottomline is -- he bought. And he had what he felt in one last year's w/s heroes coming back to help the bullpen. More specifically I don't agree that there was ever a discussion as to how much they buy. But more importantly- they wouldn't sell.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 2, 2019 22:11:19 GMT -5
Point is, I feel like both sides were wrong here. People were chatting up how you have to buy in if you're in contention and just being in is enough. Well, Dombrowski disagreed. He just took the passive approach in doing nothing. He's letting them have their chance without wasting any assets. Honestly, he should have sold. I hate that approach more than anything. It's true that helping the pen wouldn't have stopped this latest slide, but if Dombrowski truly believed their starters would get their act together, then he would try to fix the pen.
This tells me he really didn't believe that the starters would get their act together.
And let's face it - outside of getting Cashner, there wasn't much they could have done to upgrade the rotation. They're locked into those guys for 2019 and 3 of those guys beyond. I'm editing the underlined adding-- below. I might've mis-characterized it was only pitching on the radio. It wasn't . Not that it matter my point. Whoa!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't agree with a word you just said here. We're on two different planets with what you're saying. I don't think DD is near the mythical great one who can be so sure. But he probably has people that work for him that are stat gurus kind of like fangraphs that had Sox 61% chance of making the playoffs and even today before the game i hear on WFAN that the Yanks would rather not see the Sox in the postseason due to fear of their pitching along with their explosive hitting.
Fangraphs had us at 61% short time ago and I'm sure so did DD's analysts probably have them rated high. DD didn't have a big history of building bullpens but he just had Eovaldi coming back, Hernandez looking super and Workman have a career year and Barnes still pretty good -- very good if he gets rest. How many more bullpen guys do you need when you've stacked your team with guys like Sale, Price and who would've known Porcello would be so pathetic for this long? IMO DD doesn't have "Jedi Powers" with realizing his starters would basically "collapse" after showing so well vs the Yanks. Too bad I didn't pick up the guy's name on WTIC today - I like him much better than Ray (though personally I like Ray) - he mirrored what I have thought from the start. This team is built on it's starters. The bullpen is fine enough "at this moment" IF IF IF the starters do their job. Another bullpen pitcher doesn't help the cruddy starts. There is too much crap that starts the games for much of the season while it was supposed to be a significant strength. Again we'll just have to agree to disagree.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 2, 2019 22:13:45 GMT -5
It's true that helping the pen wouldn't have stopped this latest slide, but if Dombrowski truly believed their starters would get their act together, then he would try to fix the pen.
This tells me he really didn't believe that the starters would get their act together.
And let's face it - outside of getting Cashner, there wasn't much they could have done to upgrade the rotation. They're locked into those guys for 2019 and 3 of those guys beyond. Whoa!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't agree with a word you just said here. We're on two different planets with what you're saying. I don't think DD is near the mythical great one who can be so sure. But he probably has people that work for him that are stat gurus kind of like fangraphs that had Sox 61% chance of making the playoffs and even today before the game i hear on WFAN that the Yanks would rather not see the Sox in the postseason due to fear of their pitching. Fangraphs had us at 61% short time ago and I'm sure so did DD's analysts probably have them rated high. DD didn't have a big history of building bullpens but he just had Eovaldi coming back, Hernandez looking super and Workman have a career year and Barnes still pretty good -- very good if he gets rest. How many more bullpen guys do you need when you've stacked your team with guys like Sale, Price and who would've known Porcello would be so pathetic for this long? IMO DD doesn't have "Jedi Powers" with realizing his starters would basically "collapse" after showing so well vs the Yanks. Too bad I didn't pick up the guy's name on WTIC today - I like him much better than Ray (though personally I like Ray) - he mirrored what I have thought from the start. This team is built on it's starters. The bullpen is fine enough if the starters do their job. Another bullpen pitcher doesn't help the cruddy starts. There is too much crap that starts the games for much of the season while it was supposed to be a significant strength. Again we'll just have to agree to disagree. Before the 14 game stretch the most optimistic projections had them less than 50%. It's tough when you have multiple teams ahead of you.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 2, 2019 22:16:43 GMT -5
Whoa!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't agree with a word you just said here. We're on two different planets with what you're saying. I don't think DD is near the mythical great one who can be so sure. But he probably has people that work for him that are stat gurus kind of like fangraphs that had Sox 61% chance of making the playoffs and even today before the game i hear on WFAN that the Yanks would rather not see the Sox in the postseason due to fear of their pitching. Fangraphs had us at 61% short time ago and I'm sure so did DD's analysts probably have them rated high. DD didn't have a big history of building bullpens but he just had Eovaldi coming back, Hernandez looking super and Workman have a career year and Barnes still pretty good -- very good if he gets rest. How many more bullpen guys do you need when you've stacked your team with guys like Sale, Price and who would've known Porcello would be so pathetic for this long? IMO DD doesn't have "Jedi Powers" with realizing his starters would basically "collapse" after showing so well vs the Yanks. Too bad I didn't pick up the guy's name on WTIC today - I like him much better than Ray (though personally I like Ray) - he mirrored what I have thought from the start. This team is built on it's starters. The bullpen is fine enough if the starters do their job. Another bullpen pitcher doesn't help the cruddy starts. There is too much crap that starts the games for much of the season while it was supposed to be a significant strength. Again we'll just have to agree to disagree. Before the 14 game stretch the most optimistic projections had them less than 50%. It's tough when you have multiple teams ahead of you. But after the Yank series it was 61%. Why would they think back then when they were 50% that they couldn't get to above 60%?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 2, 2019 22:49:03 GMT -5
Baseball Reference has our playoff chances at 19%, FanGraphs in the 30% range. Dropping pretty fast.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 2, 2019 23:00:36 GMT -5
It's true that helping the pen wouldn't have stopped this latest slide, but if Dombrowski truly believed their starters would get their act together, then he would try to fix the pen.
This tells me he really didn't believe that the starters would get their act together.
And let's face it - outside of getting Cashner, there wasn't much they could have done to upgrade the rotation. They're locked into those guys for 2019 and 3 of those guys beyond. I'm editing the underlined adding-- below. I might've mis-characterized it was only pitching on the radio. It wasn't . Not that it matter my point. Whoa!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't agree with a word you just said here. We're on two different planets with what you're saying. I don't think DD is near the mythical great one who can be so sure. But he probably has people that work for him that are stat gurus kind of like fangraphs that had Sox 61% chance of making the playoffs and even today before the game i hear on WFAN that the Yanks would rather not see the Sox in the postseason due to fear of their pitching along with their explosive hitting.
Fangraphs had us at 61% short time ago and I'm sure so did DD's analysts probably have them rated high. DD didn't have a big history of building bullpens but he just had Eovaldi coming back, Hernandez looking super and Workman have a career year and Barnes still pretty good -- very good if he gets rest. How many more bullpen guys do you need when you've stacked your team with guys like Sale, Price and who would've known Porcello would be so pathetic for this long? IMO DD doesn't have "Jedi Powers" with realizing his starters would basically "collapse" after showing so well vs the Yanks. Too bad I didn't pick up the guy's name on WTIC today - I like him much better than Ray (though personally I like Ray) - he mirrored what I have thought from the start. This team is built on it's starters. The bullpen is fine enough "at this moment" IF IF IF the starters do their job. Another bullpen pitcher doesn't help the cruddy starts. There is too much crap that starts the games for much of the season while it was supposed to be a significant strength. Again we'll just have to agree to disagree. Ok. You kind of lost me in that first paragraph re: the radio. I know WTIC. We have that in CT. Other than that not sure about anything else in the post. My thought stream is that if Dombrowski believes Sale and Price and to a lesser extent Porcello are going to really turn their seasons around, then it follows that he would want the high leverage guys that would be coming in to protect their leads to be better than they have. Obviously, if he thinks the starters aren't going to turn it around to the degree he'd hope for, they're still going to be staring at a lot of early deficits in games and the lower leverage guys that wind up coming in wouldn't be worth the marginal upgrade. I'm fine if we agree to disagree. Nothing wrong with that.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 2, 2019 23:41:47 GMT -5
Before the 14 game stretch the most optimistic projections had them less than 50%. It's tough when you have multiple teams ahead of you. But after the Yank series it was 61%. Why would they think back then when they were 50% that they couldn't get to above 60%? I mean, that's a way to look at it, but going in the Red Sox also hadn't beaten a winning team since June (1 series) and then before that there was 2 series wins in April and that was it. Dombrowski knew that this 14 game stretch was daunting. The team came out scorching hot, but that was a long shot to continue performing that way. There are some obvious warts on this team. The pen and the rotation are horribly mediocre. Price and Sale have some lost velocity. Sale can't locate. Porcello and Cashner have been just awful. When E-Rod is your best starter there's a major problem. Again, the president of baseball operations said he didn't buy because of their position and their inability to contend for the division. If he believed in his team and put value on the 1 game playoff he would have bought.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 3, 2019 0:16:42 GMT -5
But after the Yank series it was 61%. Why would they think back then when they were 50% that they couldn't get to above 60%? I mean, that's a way to look at it, but going in the Red Sox also hadn't beaten a winning team since June (1 series) and then before that there was 2 series wins in April and that was it. Dombrowski knew that this 14 game stretch was daunting. The team came out scorching hot, but that was a long shot to continue performing that way. There are some obvious warts on this team. The pen and the rotation are horribly mediocre. Price and Sale have some lost velocity. Sale can't locate. Porcello and Cashner have been just awful. When E-Rod is your best starter there's a major problem. Again, the president of baseball operations said he didn't buy because of their position and their inability to contend for the division. If he believed in his team and put value on the 1 game playoff he would have bought. But they would have expected to win. And they ultimately did t get at 61% then a projected strength (starters) let them down again. You';re saying "longshot" -- imo no way they thought it to be a "long shot." They have a team that won 118 games last year with most back. No way they thought it "that daunting" (and they showed it as stats highlighted by 61%). Fans are thinking "daunting" and are "more scared" and are quick to declare things "over" etc. The same fans that last year who would've proclaimed "Price cant pitch in the postseason" or "His arm is shot" or "He needs to go to the bullpen." Or fans that said we weren't winning by enough runs vs Tampa Bay early in April. Or that our bullpen was going to cost us the championship that we had to get more. Your thinking imo is the same type of thinking that was pushed that we "had to get" another big arm in the bullpen last year. And you better believe if we lost those fans would still be tearing DD apart now. One site I was on a mod was agreeing with a poster who was calling last year's team gutless after any game they'd lose. IMO you making fan type comments in mid July. By the end of July the SOx showed they were a legit WC team. That's not "daunting." It was a realistic projection. But the starters didn't perform. No one could've known 100% they crash and burn 4 straight. Again the president of operations said his starting staff has been the problem. He built his team with an expectation of the starters. Add again Dd showed you by action (not by words you are using. But by action.) that he was a buyer by going out and getting a starter. His actions backed up what he said. And his actions backed up that he "bought." He didn't sell. He complained about his starters as the big disappointment and he picked up TWO relievers recently in Hernandez and now Eovaldi. He has enough to win as he states if - I think he stated this-- if starters perform. If he thinks he has enough-- then why should he spend more? IMO using your pov I can always say this year or another unless Sox didn't spend $350m or more -- because the owner could-- so then they aren't ever really buyers (because they aren't "serious buyers" in the manner I feel as a fan they should spend. I could twist it that way.). They bought a starter. They didn't sell. That's the action that told you they were buyers. I don't want to hog the thread any more. You can post last word. I respect your opinion. So have at it. I'll end my posts on this subject for now.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 3, 2019 0:43:06 GMT -5
I mean, that's a way to look at it, but going in the Red Sox also hadn't beaten a winning team since June (1 series) and then before that there was 2 series wins in April and that was it. Dombrowski knew that this 14 game stretch was daunting. The team came out scorching hot, but that was a long shot to continue performing that way. There are some obvious warts on this team. The pen and the rotation are horribly mediocre. Price and Sale have some lost velocity. Sale can't locate. Porcello and Cashner have been just awful. When E-Rod is your best starter there's a major problem. Again, the president of baseball operations said he didn't buy because of their position and their inability to contend for the division. If he believed in his team and put value on the 1 game playoff he would have bought. But they would have expected to win. And they ultimately did t get at 61% then a projected strength (starters) let them down again. You';re saying "longshot" -- imo no way they thought it to be a "long shot." They have a team that won 118 games last year with most back. No way they thought it "that daunting" (and they showed it as stats highlighted by 61%). Fans are thinking "daunting" and are "more scared" and are quick to declare things "over" etc. The same fans that last year who would've proclaimed "Price cant pitch in the postseason" or "His arm is shot" or "He needs to go to the bullpen." Or fans that said we weren't winning by enough runs vs Tampa Bay early in April. Or that our bullpen was going to cost us the championship that we had to get more. Your thinking imo is the same type of thinking that was pushed that we "had to get" another big arm in the bullpen last year. And you better believe if we lost those fans would still be tearing DD apart now. One site I was a mod was agreeing a poster who was calling last year's team gutless after any game they'd lose. IMO you making fan type comments in mid July. By the end of July the SOx showed they were a legit WC team. That;s not "daunting." It was a realistic projection. But the starters didn't perform. No one could've known 100% they crash and burn 4 straight. Again the president of operations said his starting staff has been the problem. He built his team with an expectation of the starters. Add again Dd showed you by action (not by words you are using. But by action.) that he was a buyer by going out and getting a starter. His actions backed up what he said. And his actions backed up that he "bought." He didn't sell. He complained about his starters as the big disappointment and he picked up TWO relievers recently in Hernandez and now Eovaldi. He has enough to win as he states if - I think he stated this-- if starters perform. If he thinks he has enough-- then why should he spend more? IMO using your pov I can always say this year or another unless Sox didn't spend $350m or more -- because the owner could-- so then they aren't ever really buyers (because they aren't "serious buyers" in the manner I feel as a fan they should spend. I could twist it that way.). They bought a starter. They didn't sell. That's the action that told you they were buyers. I don't want to hog the thread any more. You can post last word. I respect your opinion. So have at it. I'll end my posts on this subject for now. Dombrowski got Cashner weeks ago because Velazquez was an automatic loss every 5th day. They needed a starter and the cost was astronomically low. He’s also been a disaster since coming to Boston. He’s a mediocre journeyman. It’s not like they went out and got Stroman. At the deadline he got literally nothing. He got a 5th starter weeks ago and that was it. That’s not buying into this team. He didn’t acquire a reliever or a better starter to displace Porcello. They absolutely knew this 14 game stretch was going to be daunting. The Red Sox have acknowledged how important this 14 game stretch was going to be. But again, they had 3 series wins against winning teams all year going into this. It’s not that the Red Sox thought they couldn’t make the playoffs. The president of baseball operations said he would have made moves to improve the team if they were in contention for the division ergo, he doesn’t place value on the 1-game play-in. Not to mention 60% also means there’s still a 40% chance you don’t even make it. I’m sure he didn’t expect a 5-game losing streak, but if you thought the Red Sox were going to come in and dominate over this 4 game stretch you haven’t been paying close enough attention. I’m really confused about your statement that he bought relievers? He called up a top prospect that projects as a reliever anyways and moved his injury prone starter coming off loose bodies to the bullpen. Dombrowski is using double speak. He says he trusts his team, yet says he’d have thought more about the trade offers if they were contending for the division. You can’t have it both ways.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 3, 2019 2:30:13 GMT -5
But they would have expected to win. And they ultimately did t get at 61% then a projected strength (starters) let them down again. You';re saying "longshot" -- imo no way they thought it to be a "long shot." They have a team that won 118 games last year with most back. No way they thought it "that daunting" (and they showed it as stats highlighted by 61%). Fans are thinking "daunting" and are "more scared" and are quick to declare things "over" etc. The same fans that last year who would've proclaimed "Price cant pitch in the postseason" or "His arm is shot" or "He needs to go to the bullpen." Or fans that said we weren't winning by enough runs vs Tampa Bay early in April. Or that our bullpen was going to cost us the championship that we had to get more. Your thinking imo is the same type of thinking that was pushed that we "had to get" another big arm in the bullpen last year. And you better believe if we lost those fans would still be tearing DD apart now. One site I was a mod was agreeing a poster who was calling last year's team gutless after any game they'd lose. IMO you making fan type comments in mid July. By the end of July the SOx showed they were a legit WC team. That;s not "daunting." It was a realistic projection. But the starters didn't perform. No one could've known 100% they crash and burn 4 straight. Again the president of operations said his starting staff has been the problem. He built his team with an expectation of the starters. Add again Dd showed you by action (not by words you are using. But by action.) that he was a buyer by going out and getting a starter. His actions backed up what he said. And his actions backed up that he "bought." He didn't sell. He complained about his starters as the big disappointment and he picked up TWO relievers recently in Hernandez and now Eovaldi. He has enough to win as he states if - I think he stated this-- if starters perform. If he thinks he has enough-- then why should he spend more? IMO using your pov I can always say this year or another unless Sox didn't spend $350m or more -- because the owner could-- so then they aren't ever really buyers (because they aren't "serious buyers" in the manner I feel as a fan they should spend. I could twist it that way.). They bought a starter. They didn't sell. That's the action that told you they were buyers. I don't want to hog the thread any more. You can post last word. I respect your opinion. So have at it. I'll end my posts on this subject for now. Dombrowski got Cashner weeks ago because Velazquez was an automatic loss every 5th day. They needed a starter and the cost was astronomically low. He’s also been a disaster since coming to Boston. He’s a mediocre journeyman. It’s not like they went out and got Stroman. At the deadline he got literally nothing. He got a 5th starter weeks ago and that was it. That’s not buying into this team. He didn’t acquire a reliever or a better starter to displace Porcello. They absolutely knew this 14 game stretch was going to be daunting. The Red Sox have acknowledged how important this 14 game stretch was going to be. But again, they had 3 series wins against winning teams all year going into this. It’s not that the Red Sox thought they couldn’t make the playoffs. The president of baseball operations said he would have made moves to improve the team if they were in contention for the division ergo, he doesn’t place value on the 1-game play-in. Not to mention 60% also means there’s still a 40% chance you don’t even make it. I’m sure he didn’t expect a 5-game losing streak, but if you thought the Red Sox were going to come in and dominate over this 4 game stretch you haven’t been paying close enough attention. I’m really confused about your statement that he bought relievers? He called up a top prospect that projects as a reliever anyways and moved his injury prone starter coming off loose bodies to the bullpen. Dombrowski is using double speak. He says he trusts his team, yet says he’d have thought more about the trade offers if they were contending for the division. You can’t have it both ways. I'd like to reply more but I don't want to derail the thread with our back and forths. Great. We'll go at this again another time. I enjoyed. Thanks! Ugggh! I just screwed up and accidentally liked my post. Oops!
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Post by Guidas on Aug 3, 2019 13:10:10 GMT -5
I'm still wondering if my theory (that I've had for a couple years) that April run differential is predictive of post-season probability is real. I don't have the programming skills or the computing power to do the analysis, but if anyone is so empowered and motivated and found that it's true, it would likely get you attention on Fangraphs and elsewhere
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 3, 2019 21:55:21 GMT -5
At this point it wouldn’t even shock me if the Sox finish under .500
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