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5/2-5/5 Red Sox @ White Sox Series Thread
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Post by bluechip on May 4, 2019 2:01:30 GMT -5
Postgame show had Lin to the IL and Nunez recalled from rehab. A serious roster squeeze is still a while off, though. Josh Smith has yet to pitch, so they'd probably be fine with 12 pitchers and 4 bench guys. So the bell tolls for Nunez only when Pedroia and Holt are both healthy. That could be a few weeks at least.
Out of 298+ players with 50+ PA, Chavis ranks about 11th in wRC+, at 180. (I'm just inserting his updated numbers into the list at the start of the day.)
It’s not so much a roster issue, it’s just having him in the lineup everyday. And probably making sure that they aren’t distracting him such that that it affects his development and hitting.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 4, 2019 2:36:55 GMT -5
Postgame show had Lin to the IL and Nunez recalled from rehab.
A serious roster squeeze is still a while off, though. Josh Smith has yet to pitch, so they'd probably be fine with 12 pitchers and 4 bench guys.
So the bell tolls for Nunez only when Pedroia and Holt are both healthy. That could be a few weeks at least.
Out of 298+ players with 50+ PA, Chavis ranks about 11th in wRC+, at 180. (I'm just inserting his updated numbers into the list at the start of the day.)
Josh Smith just threw in the 9th inning of last night's game. You need a guy to throw a lot of garbage innings to preserve arms. Send down Brewer. My worst nightmare has come true. Nunez is officially the backup short stop. Get ready to play everyday for the next 2-3 weeks until Holt is ready, Xander.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 4, 2019 4:00:46 GMT -5
I don't post a lot of Bradford, but he did post about how the velocity spike for Sale was coming. So I give him credit here.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 4, 2019 4:12:47 GMT -5
Eck would call having Devers, Chavis, Moreland/Pearce hitting 5, 6, 7 a beautiful thing. That makes a long, potent lineup.
With rookie Chavis opening eyes with power and OBP, better than expected defense, and high baseball IQ, he will not be replaced at 2B by Nunez, binky or not. This makes S. Nunez an ideal backup IF on a short bench (without Lin, Holt, Pedey, Marco and, dare I say it without italics, a not ready for prime time Chatham.)
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 4, 2019 5:17:24 GMT -5
It's going to be fun watching Devers and Chavis get 110 mph hits every year and see them one up each other in that department.
Chavis is the strongest 5'10" dude I have ever seen. He's built like a mini Captain America.
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Post by jimed14 on May 4, 2019 5:51:38 GMT -5
Do you realize that an error is usually the same result as a ground ball that gets past someone with worse range than Devers? It's just not counted or noticed by anything other than advanced stats. Someone like Jeter may have made about 15 errors a year, but he let about 30 balls go for singles that he didn't get a glove on that someone with average to better range would have gotten. I'll take the guy with double the errors who gets to those 30 balls that Jeter wouldn't. Ugh. Derek Jeter? You mean the guy who should have retired 2 years earlier and should have been a DH in his 30's? That guy is the bar that we are setting for Devers? How about comparing him to the guy Cora keeps comparing him to in Beltre? The guy with positive DRS and positive range, even at a young age? Why do you need to pick one or the other? 3rd base is a pretty important position on the infield. Arguably the 4th or 5th most important position defensively. Errors doesn't always equal singles either (ground balls turned into a non out), they turn into doubles (sometimes) when the player goes on to to throw the ball to the dugout. The pitching staff is definitely feeling the effect of Devers' defense. Example, last night. Brasier strikes out the first batter. Gets a ground ball on the next play, play is not made. Brasier immediately goes into the stretch position and has to worry about keeping the tying run on first. Brasier goes on to throw two crap pitches with traffic on the bases. I'm not a big win probability guy, but it had to have dropped by 20-25 percent once that play wasn't made. I'm not setting the bar at Derek Jeter. I'm pointing out that errors are not nearly the be-all end-all problem that you make it out to be, when you have range that makes up for some of those errors. And you still ignored the run he saved earlier in the game with a play almost no one makes.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 4, 2019 6:59:58 GMT -5
Please acquire another stopgap infielder for the time being, this Nunez backup thing isn't going to work out. He might cost you a win in the next 2-3 weeks. He's that bad both defensively and offensively.
It wouldn't be so bad if he was your second backup infielder, but it will be disastrous if he's your only primary backup infielder.
I would take any Devin Marrero type at the moment. Send them here to Boston. Find a waiver claim. Something. Anything.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 4, 2019 7:28:54 GMT -5
Please acquire another stopgap infielder for the time being, this Nunez backup thing isn't going to work out. He might cost you a win I would take any Devin Marrero type at the moment. Send them here to Boston. Find a waiver claim. Something. Anything. Mike Miller. Pawtucket SS
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Post by soxfan511 on May 4, 2019 7:59:10 GMT -5
The scouts on BA graded out Chavis as a 60 Raw power. I have to say I disagree with that. Seems more like at least a 70 to me. He displays Mickey Mantle like power. Mantle, too was 5’10 and people couldn’t believe he hit the ball that far.
More impressively...his plate discipline, defense, and hit tool seem to come better than advertised. He looks like a future all star, but too early too tell. Love the potential infield core of the future X, Devers, Chavis....
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Post by maxwellsdemon on May 4, 2019 8:46:29 GMT -5
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Post by patford on May 4, 2019 8:53:04 GMT -5
Please acquire another stopgap infielder for the time being, this Nunez backup thing isn't going to work out. He might cost you a win I would take any Devin Marrero type at the moment. Send them here to Boston. Find a waiver claim. Something. Anything. Mike Miller. Pawtucket SS Why not Chatham ? Keeping in mind he's 24. It's not like he needs a lot of time to mature in the minors. As he is likely a future trade chip if there is a need due to injuries why not aggressively advance him and see what he can do ? At worst his defense is better than Nunez (I assume).
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 4, 2019 11:52:02 GMT -5
The scouts on BA graded out Chavis as a 60 Raw power. I have to say I disagree with that. Seems more like at least a 70 to me. He displays Mickey Mantle like power. Mantle, too was 5’10 and people couldn’t believe he hit the ball that far. More impressively...his plate discipline, defense, and hit tool seem to come better than advertised. He looks like a future all star, but too early too tell. Love the potential infield core of the future X, Devers, Chavis.... Ok, time to pump the breaks on Chavis a little bit... It's harder than you'd think to map the power tool to any one metric, and Chavis still has a very small sample anyway, but his max exit velo so far has been about 110, which is good but not eye-popping. You can approach the batted ball numbers in many different ways, but I don't really see anything that puts him into THAT elite a tier for power. And as far as the hit tool, it's been pretty bad, despite the .310 average. 16.6% swinging strike rate so far, .375 BABIP, 30.3% home run to fly ball rate... these numbers are suggest major regression is coming. Don't get me wrong, this has been a best-case-scenario season for Chavis, and I think he's meaningfully improved his stock even in the short run he's had so far, but he hasn't really shown a skill set that matches the surface production. As always, I like to go to the projections systems for a baseline of what to expect. Per THE BAT, the current state of the art in public projection systems to my understanding: Pre-season projection: .231/.292/.409 Updated projection: .240/.307/.453
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Post by James Dunne on May 4, 2019 12:04:06 GMT -5
Please acquire another stopgap infielder for the time being, this Nunez backup thing isn't going to work out. He might cost you a win I would take any Devin Marrero type at the moment. Send them here to Boston. Find a waiver claim. Something. Anything. Mike Miller. Pawtucket SS I'll boost this. Veteran, knows the game, plays better defense than Nunez, isn't going to have his development hurt by sitting on the bench and getting only like four PA a week, has options left, and would clear waivers. The team really needs a backup middle infielder, because Nunez isn't one and Chavis really isn't one either. He's not a standout defensively (certainly not in the Deven Marrero/Jose Iglesias way) but he's capable. There's also gotta be some veteran sitting on a Triple-A roster somewhere whose team would trade him for cash.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on May 4, 2019 12:17:20 GMT -5
The scouts on BA graded out Chavis as a 60 Raw power. I have to say I disagree with that. Seems more like at least a 70 to me. He displays Mickey Mantle like power. Mantle, too was 5’10 and people couldn’t believe he hit the ball that far. More impressively...his plate discipline, defense, and hit tool seem to come better than advertised. He looks like a future all star, but too early too tell. Love the potential infield core of the future X, Devers, Chavis.... Ok, time to pump the breaks on Chavis a little bit... It's harder than you'd think to map the power tool to any one metric, and Chavis still has a very small sample anyway, but his max exit velo so far has been about 110, which is good but not eye-popping. You can approach the batted ball numbers in many different ways, but I don't really see anything that puts him into THAT elite a tier for power. And as far as the hit tool, it's been pretty bad, despite the .310 average. 16.6% swinging strike rate so far, .375 BABIP, 30.3% home run to fly ball rate... these numbers are suggest major regression is coming. Don't get me wrong, this has been a best-case-scenario season for Chavis, and I think he's meaningfully improved his stock even in the short run he's had so far, but he hasn't really shown a skill set that matches the surface production. As always, I like to go to the projections systems for a baseline of what to expect. Per THE BAT, the current state of the art in public projection systems to my understanding: Pre-season projection: .231/.292/.409 Updated projection: .240/.307/.453 i would agree about pumping the breaks on Chavis in many respects, but in regards to the power I think it's fair that a guy who was hitting 460ft+ homers in AAA and now three of his four big league homers are 440ft+ might just have more than a 60 raw power. Fangraphs has him at 65 raw power fwiw. Also, we know he's capable of more than 110mph exit velocity, because he's done it before. In fact, in the AZ fall league he twice reached a few mph higher into elite territory, per this article. "Michael Chavis, exit velocity: It doesn't take Statcast to tell you that a top-100 prospect who hit 31 home runs during the regular season is someone who can probably hit the ball really hard. But it certainly helps build the case. In Chavis' lone game at Salt River on Oct. 16, he posted two of the top five exit velocities measured in the Fall League this season. The hardest of the two was a 113.507 mph shot that went for a double to left field...Anything in triple digits feels impressive, but context is key here. That two-bagger would've been the fifth-hardest-hit ball in this Major League postseason, beating out anything off the bat of Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant or Carlos Correa." www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-arizona-fall-league-lessons-from-statcast/c-259766764
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Post by incandenza on May 4, 2019 13:05:14 GMT -5
The scouts on BA graded out Chavis as a 60 Raw power. I have to say I disagree with that. Seems more like at least a 70 to me. He displays Mickey Mantle like power. Mantle, too was 5’10 and people couldn’t believe he hit the ball that far. More impressively...his plate discipline, defense, and hit tool seem to come better than advertised. He looks like a future all star, but too early too tell. Love the potential infield core of the future X, Devers, Chavis.... Ok, time to pump the breaks on Chavis a little bit... It's harder than you'd think to map the power tool to any one metric, and Chavis still has a very small sample anyway, but his max exit velo so far has been about 110, which is good but not eye-popping. You can approach the batted ball numbers in many different ways, but I don't really see anything that puts him into THAT elite a tier for power. And as far as the hit tool, it's been pretty bad, despite the .310 average. 16.6% swinging strike rate so far, .375 BABIP, 30.3% home run to fly ball rate... these numbers are suggest major regression is coming. Don't get me wrong, this has been a best-case-scenario season for Chavis, and I think he's meaningfully improved his stock even in the short run he's had so far, but he hasn't really shown a skill set that matches the surface production. As always, I like to go to the projections systems for a baseline of what to expect. Per THE BAT, the current state of the art in public projection systems to my understanding: Pre-season projection: .231/.292/.409 Updated projection: .240/.307/.453 Yeah, I don't know how many time we have to see the pattern before we come to expect it: 1. Rookie comes up and wows everyone. 2. The league figures him out and he looks like crap for a while. The question is always how well the new guy adjusts to the adjustments. Sometimes they do so really well almost right away; sometimes it takes years; sometimes they never do. With Chavis we just don't know yet... or at least I don't. I'll leave it to the experts to speculate as to whether Chavis is the kind of player that we can expect to be able to make adjustments effectively. Having said that, a couple of more bullish observations: 1) I would totally believe Chavis' raw power is better than advertised. That's just based on seeing his danged bombs. Among other things, there's more to power than just exit velocity (though his EVs have been nothing to sneeze at); launch angle and backspin come to mind. 2) That's actually a pretty meaningful upgrade in the updated projection, if you ask me - from a .701 OPS to .760. I would make this comment more impressive if I could frame it in terms of "that's the difference between being in the Xth percentile and the Yth percentile league-wide," but I have no idea how to look that up.
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Post by jimed14 on May 4, 2019 15:01:06 GMT -5
Mike Miller. Pawtucket SS I'll boost this. Veteran, knows the game, plays better defense than Nunez, isn't going to have his development hurt by sitting on the bench and getting only like four PA a week, has options left, and would clear waivers. The team really needs a backup middle infielder, because Nunez isn't one and Chavis really isn't one either. He's not a standout defensively (certainly not in the Deven Marrero/Jose Iglesias way) but he's capable. There's also gotta be some veteran sitting on a Triple-A roster somewhere whose team would trade him for cash. Like Deven Marrero with the Marlins?
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 4, 2019 15:34:27 GMT -5
Nunez is in the lineup today, bumps JBJ to the bench. Edit: www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=curlet000joeJoey Curletta Positions: Rightfielder and First Baseman Bats: Right • Throws: Right 6-4, 245 lb Curletta, claimed off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. Curletta, 25, was assigned to Double-A Portland. Unclaimed in Rule 5, '16 & '17. Was A+. 3 option years. 2019. And 2 more remain. 2012 6th round.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2019 15:54:33 GMT -5
Please acquire another stopgap infielder for the time being, this Nunez backup thing isn't going to work out. He might cost you a win in the next 2-3 weeks. He's that bad both defensively and offensively. It wouldn't be so bad if he was your second backup infielder, but it will be disastrous if he's your only primary backup infielder. I would take any Devin Marrero type at the moment. Send them here to Boston. Find a waiver claim. Something. Anything. It appears the Red Sox have claimed IF Joey Curletta off waiver from the Mariners. I'm only seeing this on the 40 man roster page, no articles about it.
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Post by jimed14 on May 4, 2019 16:01:40 GMT -5
Please acquire another stopgap infielder for the time being, this Nunez backup thing isn't going to work out. He might cost you a win in the next 2-3 weeks. He's that bad both defensively and offensively. It wouldn't be so bad if he was your second backup infielder, but it will be disastrous if he's your only primary backup infielder. I would take any Devin Marrero type at the moment. Send them here to Boston. Find a waiver claim. Something. Anything. It appears the Red Sox have claimed IF Joey Curletta off waiver from the Mariners. I'm only seeing this on the 40 man roster page, no articles about it. He's a 1B/OF so not a backup IF. More of a prospect claim because they're so high on the priority list. Maybe he's better than Sam Travis.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2019 16:02:49 GMT -5
It appears the Red Sox have claimed IF Joey Curletta off waiver from the Mariners. I'm only seeing this on the 40 man roster page, no articles about it. He's a 1B/OF so not a backup IF. More of a prospect claim because they're so high on the priority list. Maybe he's better than Sam Travis. Oh ok. I've never heard of him before, just going off him being listed in the infield section of the 40 man roster page, but I guess they count 1B.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 4, 2019 16:46:12 GMT -5
Please acquire another stopgap infielder for the time being, this Nunez backup thing isn't going to work out. He might cost you a win in the next 2-3 weeks. He's that bad both defensively and offensively. It wouldn't be so bad if he was your second backup infielder, but it will be disastrous if he's your only primary backup infielder. I would take any Devin Marrero type at the moment. Send them here to Boston. Find a waiver claim. Something. Anything. It appears the Red Sox have claimed IF Joey Curletta off waiver from the Mariners. I'm only seeing this on the 40 man roster page, no articles about it. Meh, the Sox had two 40 man roster spots open. They used one on Curletta. I can see the Sox trying to sneak him by on waivers again or even DFAing Sam Travis like JimEd brought up (by Curletta being better than Travis). Sam Travis is really close to losing a roster spot on the 40 man roster. His performance at AAA has plateaued to a OPS around .650 the past 2 or 3 years. It took Sam Travis a while, but he's turned into a bust. No biggie, can't win them all. Hit tool didn't pan out after changing his launch angle.
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Post by jimed14 on May 4, 2019 16:59:06 GMT -5
It appears the Red Sox have claimed IF Joey Curletta off waiver from the Mariners. I'm only seeing this on the 40 man roster page, no articles about it. Meh, the Sox had two 40 man roster spots open. They used one on Curletta. I can see the Sox trying to sneak him by on waivers again or even DFAing Sam Travis like JimEd brought up (by Curletta being better than Travis). Sam Travis is really close to losing a roster spot on the 40 man roster. His performance at AAA has plateaued to a OPS around .650 the past 2 or 3 years. It took Sam Travis a while, but he's turned into a bust. No biggie, can't win them all. Hit tool didn't pan out after changing his launch angle. I wouldn't say really close, since they still have another spot open and there are plenty of guys can be waived before him specifically Thornburg and Nunez. I also don't think Josh Smith is worth a spot for long. Travis is down to his last option so he'll probably be off the 40 towards the end of the season if they need the spot. I'd always keep the prospect with options over the 30 something minor leaguer. We haven't really had a 40 man crunch in awhile which is weird.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 4, 2019 17:02:25 GMT -5
Meh, the Sox had two 40 man roster spots open. They used one on Curletta. I can see the Sox trying to sneak him by on waivers again or even DFAing Sam Travis like JimEd brought up (by Curletta being better than Travis). Sam Travis is really close to losing a roster spot on the 40 man roster. His performance at AAA has plateaued to a OPS around .650 the past 2 or 3 years. It took Sam Travis a while, but he's turned into a bust. No biggie, can't win them all. Hit tool didn't pan out after changing his launch angle. I wouldn't say really close, since they still have another spot open and there are plenty of guys can be waived before him specifically Thornburg and Nunez. I also don't think Josh Smith is worth a spot for long. Travis is down to his last option so he'll probably be off the 40 towards the end of the season if they need the spot. I'd always keep the prospect with options over the 30 something minor leaguer. We haven't really had a 40 man crunch in awhile which is weird. Yeah that's all true. Nunez and Thornburg off the ship first. Josh Smith probably won't be either unless the Sox just option him too, if he has any. Either way, Sam Travis is losing his juice. The most time he has here is until November, unless there's some miraculous turnaround here. Curletta has 3 option years remaining, so he's got plenty of time here potentially with those options. His bat looks a lot more interesting than Sam Travis regardless of the options, even though he's in AA and the same age.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 4, 2019 17:28:55 GMT -5
Cora wastes no time and gets Nunez back at second base for tonight's game. Ugh.
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Post by jimed14 on May 4, 2019 18:13:45 GMT -5
Can't start watching the game until the Kentucky Derby names a winner. Going on 20 minutes now.
edit Wow, I just watched history. The winner was disqualified for getting out of his lane and impeding other horses.
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