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5/20-5/23 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on May 22, 2019 9:15:06 GMT -5
Now .862. That was a quick recovery! Keep track of it. Not sure what the medium lies this year. Last year it was in the low .700s with the OPS. This is mainly a BABIP driven thing here. His BABIP is in the .350's right now. His ISO is down from a year ago, but his K rate is down and walk rate is up. So I'm not sure if I like this hitting of Devers more. Man, if you've been watching Devers swing the bat the last few weeks and think his performance is just BABIP-driven, then... I don't know what to tell you. He's smoking everything. He hit three 110-mph lasers in one game the other day. Three.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 22, 2019 11:34:39 GMT -5
Keep track of it. Not sure what the medium lies this year. Last year it was in the low .700s with the OPS. This is mainly a BABIP driven thing here. His BABIP is in the .350's right now. His ISO is down from a year ago, but his K rate is down and walk rate is up. So I'm not sure if I like this hitting of Devers more. Man, if you've been watching Devers swing the bat the last few weeks and think his performance is just BABIP-driven, then... I don't know what to tell you. He's smoking everything. He hit three 110-mph lasers in one game the other day. Three. Lately he has been hitting for more power, but that's only recently. Took him over a full month to hit his first homerun for perspective here (May 3rd, season started in March). Homeruns aren't everything, but with a supposed juiced ball, it says something. Add- I can say that with all honesty that I think most if not all of the first month plus was mostly BABIP driven. Wasn't hitting for much power in that time at all. He needs to tap into a launch angle more often. It's great that he's hitting the ball hard, especially recently.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 22, 2019 12:42:06 GMT -5
Keep track of it. Not sure what the medium lies this year. Last year it was in the low .700s with the OPS. This is mainly a BABIP driven thing here. His BABIP is in the .350's right now. His ISO is down from a year ago, but his K rate is down and walk rate is up. So I'm not sure if I like this hitting of Devers more. Man, if you've been watching Devers swing the bat the last few weeks and think his performance is just BABIP-driven, then... I don't know what to tell you. He's smoking everything. He hit three 110-mph lasers in one game the other day. Three. That is, in fact, what leads to a high batting avg for balls in play. And no one has hit more hard shots than Devers. This is from Baseball Savant (click to expand): He's also 15th on the list for the % of those balls-in-play that were 95mph or greater, and his average exit velocity is also at about the same position in the list. He is, as you say smoking the ball, and that's what's led to the higher BABIP. And it isn't luck. Add: It's also not recent. He's been smashing the ball all season to this point. What has changed is his approach. It's obvious he's gotten some serious coaching and that he's starting to figure out what pitchers are trying to do to him. He's been a lot more circumspect with the stuff high up in the zone, and he's taking pitches away to the opposite field, again with some power. The best thing about his season so far? He's shown a real penchant for learning on the fly. That's the ticket to a lot of pain for opposing pitchers.
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Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2019 13:18:01 GMT -5
Man, if you've been watching Devers swing the bat the last few weeks and think his performance is just BABIP-driven, then... I don't know what to tell you. He's smoking everything. He hit three 110-mph lasers in one game the other day. Three. That is, in fact, what leads to a high batting avg for balls in play. And no one has hit more hard shots than Devers. This is from Baseball Savant (click to expand): He's also 15th on the list for the % of those balls-in-play that were 95mph or greater, and his average exit velocity is also at about the same position in the list. He is, as you say smoking the ball, and that's what's led to the higher BABIP. And it isn't luck. Add: It's also not recent. He's been smashing the ball all season to this point. What has changed is his approach. It's obvious he's gotten some serious coaching and that he's starting to figure out what pitchers are trying to do to him. He's been a lot more circumspect with the stuff high up in the zone, and he's taking pitches away to the opposite field, again with some power. The best thing about his season so far? He's shown a real penchant for learning on the fly. That's the ticket to a lot of pain for opposing pitchers. What I've seen from Devers this year makes me think he'll end up being consistently the best hitter on the Red Sox and that is saying a lot right now.
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Post by James Dunne on May 22, 2019 13:23:43 GMT -5
Shoot me with the nerf gun if you want, but his ability to make such consistent, hard contact with such a violent swing reminds me of Gary Sheffield.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 22, 2019 15:17:48 GMT -5
Man, if you've been watching Devers swing the bat the last few weeks and think his performance is just BABIP-driven, then... I don't know what to tell you. He's smoking everything. He hit three 110-mph lasers in one game the other day. Three. That is, in fact, what leads to a high batting avg for balls in play. And no one has hit more hard shots than Devers. This is from Baseball Savant (click to expand): He's also 15th on the list for the % of those balls-in-play that were 95mph or greater, and his average exit velocity is also at about the same position in the list. He is, as you say smoking the ball, and that's what's led to the higher BABIP. And it isn't luck. Add: It's also not recent. He's been smashing the ball all season to this point. What has changed is his approach. It's obvious he's gotten some serious coaching and that he's starting to figure out what pitchers are trying to do to him. He's been a lot more circumspect with the stuff high up in the zone, and he's taking pitches away to the opposite field, again with some power. The best thing about his season so far? He's shown a real penchant for learning on the fly. That's the ticket to a lot of pain for opposing pitchers. I mean, BABIP is a luck driven stat though. His BABIP last year was .286. This year it's in the .350s. There's regression coming. Hopefully when it comes, he's hitting in the low .800's instead of the low .700s with his OPS this year. Seems like he's breaking out a little more this year for sure. His line drive percentage is up 10 percent from last year and his groundball percentage is up 1 percent. Line drives always have a chance to be caught, groundballs always have a chance to be turned into a out. Hopefully when the regression comes, it comes in the form of more flyballs because he's hitting a even better 1 homerun for every 12 at bats, which is up from last year. He just needs to put the ball in the air more, because he does hit the ball hard. Launch angle is where it's at these days.
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Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2019 15:25:15 GMT -5
That is, in fact, what leads to a high batting avg for balls in play. And no one has hit more hard shots than Devers. This is from Baseball Savant (click to expand): He's also 15th on the list for the % of those balls-in-play that were 95mph or greater, and his average exit velocity is also at about the same position in the list. He is, as you say smoking the ball, and that's what's led to the higher BABIP. And it isn't luck. Add: It's also not recent. He's been smashing the ball all season to this point. What has changed is his approach. It's obvious he's gotten some serious coaching and that he's starting to figure out what pitchers are trying to do to him. He's been a lot more circumspect with the stuff high up in the zone, and he's taking pitches away to the opposite field, again with some power. The best thing about his season so far? He's shown a real penchant for learning on the fly. That's the ticket to a lot of pain for opposing pitchers. I mean, BABIP is a luck driven stat though. His BABIP last year was .286. This year it's in the .350s. There's regression coming. Hopefully when it comes, he's hitting in the low .800's instead of the low .700s with his OPS this year. Seems like he's breaking out a little more this year for sure. His line drive percentage is up 10 percent from last year and his groundball percentage is up 1 percent. Line drives always have a chance to be caught, groundballs always have a chance to be turned into a out. Hopefully when the regression comes, it comes in the form of more flyballs because he's hitting a even better 1 homerun for every 12 at bats. He just needs to put the ball in the air more, because he does hit the ball hard. Launch angle is where it's at these days. BABIP is also a hardness of contact stat. He's hitting the ball much harder this year so it makes perfect sense that his BABIP has risen. He literally hits over 50% of his hit balls greater than 95 mph. His xwOBA was .305 in 2018 and .380 this year and that does take hardness of contact and launch angle into consideration. I'm not worried about his home runs at all if he can keep hitting over .300 while walking a lot more. He has lowered his k rate from 24.7 to 14.9.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 22, 2019 15:33:55 GMT -5
I mean, even if he's hitting that many balls hard, he still is going to regress is the point. Hopefully the BABIP only regress's to the .320's (which is reasonable to assume). I believe in Devers' abilities with the bat, so I'm not trying to be negative here.
We are talking about maybe a 1 degree difference (launch angle wise) with his swing is what's going to turn him into a 40 homerun bat potentially. I think that's possible someday with him and hope it comes soon.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,935
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Post by ericmvan on May 22, 2019 15:41:00 GMT -5
That is, in fact, what leads to a high batting avg for balls in play. And no one has hit more hard shots than Devers. This is from Baseball Savant (click to expand): He's also 15th on the list for the % of those balls-in-play that were 95mph or greater, and his average exit velocity is also at about the same position in the list. He is, as you say smoking the ball, and that's what's led to the higher BABIP. And it isn't luck. Add: It's also not recent. He's been smashing the ball all season to this point. What has changed is his approach. It's obvious he's gotten some serious coaching and that he's starting to figure out what pitchers are trying to do to him. He's been a lot more circumspect with the stuff high up in the zone, and he's taking pitches away to the opposite field, again with some power. The best thing about his season so far? He's shown a real penchant for learning on the fly. That's the ticket to a lot of pain for opposing pitchers. I mean, BABIP is a luck driven stat though. His BABIP last year was .286. This year it's in the .350s. There's regression coming. Hopefully when it comes, he's hitting in the low .800's instead of the low .700s with his OPS this year. Seems like he's breaking out a little more this year for sure. His line drive percentage is up 10 percent from last year and his groundball percentage is up 1 percent. Line drives always have a chance to be caught, groundballs always have a chance to be turned into a out. Hopefully when the regression comes, it comes in the form of more flyballs because he's hitting a even better 1 homerun for every 12 at bats, which is up from last year. He just needs to put the ball in the air more, because he does hit the ball hard. Launch angle is where it's at these days. No, it's not.
For hitters it's largely a function of how hard you hit the ball.
He's been slightly unlucky on balls in play, so there is no significant regression expected here. The only unknown going forward is the percentage of time he can keep his mechanics in synch versus out of whack.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 22, 2019 15:44:58 GMT -5
Any lineup that excludes Nunie is a fine lineup.
Nunez Pearce JDM Is the bench.
Swihart gets the start in LF vs LHP Lauer.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 22, 2019 15:53:10 GMT -5
I mean, BABIP is a luck driven stat though. His BABIP last year was .286. This year it's in the .350s. There's regression coming. Hopefully when it comes, he's hitting in the low .800's instead of the low .700s with his OPS this year. Seems like he's breaking out a little more this year for sure. His line drive percentage is up 10 percent from last year and his groundball percentage is up 1 percent. Line drives always have a chance to be caught, groundballs always have a chance to be turned into a out. Hopefully when the regression comes, it comes in the form of more flyballs because he's hitting a even better 1 homerun for every 12 at bats, which is up from last year. He just needs to put the ball in the air more, because he does hit the ball hard. Launch angle is where it's at these days. No, it's not.
For hitters it's largely a function of how hard you hit the ball.
He's been slightly unlucky on balls in play, so there is no significant regression expected here. The only unknown going forward is the percentage of time he can keep his mechanics in synch versus out of whack.
Sure there isn't. Heath Hembree was a brand new pitcher last year and not because of luck too. That's what you told everyone last year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 22, 2019 16:02:36 GMT -5
No, it's not.
For hitters it's largely a function of how hard you hit the ball. He's been slightly unlucky on balls in play, so there is no significant regression expected here. The only unknown going forward is the percentage of time he can keep his mechanics in synch versus out of whack.
Sure there isn't. Heath Hembree was a brand new pitcher last year and not because of luck too. That's what you told everyone last year. There's an element of luck to both, but hitter BABIP is much more skills-driven than pitcher BABIP.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 22, 2019 16:04:35 GMT -5
Sure there isn't. Heath Hembree was a brand new pitcher last year and not because of luck too. That's what you told everyone last year. There's an element of luck to both, but hitter BABIP is much more skills-driven than pitcher BABIP. Yes, but he told everyone that Hembree was a brand new pitcher because of a "brand new slider." I hope Devers doesn't regress too much and his BABIP stays above .320 all year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 22, 2019 16:06:58 GMT -5
There's an element of luck to both, but hitter BABIP is much more skills-driven than pitcher BABIP. Yes, but he told everyone that Hembree was a brand new pitcher because of a "brand new slider."Thank goodness you've never made a prediction that anyone could call you out on retrospectively. And again, not even relevant when we're talking about a hitter.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 22, 2019 16:14:59 GMT -5
Yes, but he told everyone that Hembree was a brand new pitcher because of a "brand new slider." Thank goodness you've never made a prediction that anyone could call you out on retrospectively. And again, not even relevant when we're talking about a hitter. They did call me out, on the Steve Pearce contract. Which is going swell right now.
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Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2019 16:22:07 GMT -5
We could always look through the bullpen thread and see which relievers you wanted to sign that are now pitching about as well as Thornburg for 4-5 times the price.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 22, 2019 16:31:09 GMT -5
We could always look through the bullpen thread and see which relievers you wanted to sign that are now pitching about as well as Thornburg for 4-5 times the price. Can't always be right, but that was the bigger need, still is. I'm not one to call out anyone for outlandish takes, but it's fun to poke fun at when posters come after me over a reasonable take of Devers BABIP.
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Post by James Dunne on May 22, 2019 16:41:24 GMT -5
We could always look through the bullpen thread and see which relievers you wanted to sign that are now pitching about as well as Thornburg for 4-5 times the price. Can't always be right, but that was the bigger need, still is. I'm not one to call out anyone for outlandish takes, but it's fun to poke fun at when posters come after me over a reasonable take of Devers BABIP. He didn't "come at" you, he disagreed and explained why.
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Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2019 16:42:19 GMT -5
We could always look through the bullpen thread and see which relievers you wanted to sign that are now pitching about as well as Thornburg for 4-5 times the price. Can't always be right, but that was the bigger need, still is. I'm not one to call out anyone for outlandish takes, but it's fun to poke fun at when posters come after me over a reasonable take of Devers BABIP. Well, you use emotion and not stats to judge players. That's why. There's a reason why Aaron Judge has a career .357 BABIP and it's not because he's lucky. It's because he destroys the ball just about every time he hits it like Devers is this year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 22, 2019 16:59:48 GMT -5
Can't always be right, but that was the bigger need, still is. I'm not one to call out anyone for outlandish takes, but it's fun to poke fun at when posters come after me over a reasonable take of Devers BABIP. Well, you use emotion and not stats to judge players. That's why. I tell it like I see it. I study a lot and collect a lot of information and try to make the best point possible. I use stats A LOT, stats don't always tell the whole story however. To James point, that's just the way I took his point. When he used the bolded letters to emphasise. My apologies if that wasn't his intent.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 22, 2019 17:18:13 GMT -5
Reading all of these stats-based analyses, all I can do is smile and say "knock yourself out, folks"! I am just happy to be a fan that watches, enjoys, frets, worries, and is either joyful or bummed. (I leave my stats anaylsis for my gardening endeavors...different strokes for different folks!wouldn't know or care for a BAPIP EIEIO if it hit me square between the eyes!). A baseball luddite, that's me, I suppose!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 22, 2019 17:34:46 GMT -5
No, it's not.
For hitters it's largely a function of how hard you hit the ball.
He's been slightly unlucky on balls in play, so there is no significant regression expected here. The only unknown going forward is the percentage of time he can keep his mechanics in synch versus out of whack.
Sure there isn't. Heath Hembree was a brand new pitcher last year and not because of luck too. That's what you told everyone last year. Hembree wasn't succeeding because of BABIP luck, either. I'm not going to search for for the date I thought back then he had turned it around, because his game log shows a tremendous hot stretch from June 8 to August 7, two full months, 81 batters faced, and I'm pretty sure I had a starting point then or right nearby. (I think I actually located the date where he apparently changed the grip on his slider to get extra movement. Altered grips don't regress, bu the way.)
He had a .257 xwOBA and a .253 wOBA in that stretch. That's basically what Walden's been doing this year.
All skill, no luck. He was succeeding because he was legitimately executing better than he had in the past.
Now, he did stop executing better after August 7, but it wasn't because of regression or luck. I later posted data that showed that his arm angle dropped progressively and his slider movement diminished dramatically along with it. Which of course you ignored.
Re Devers, I already said we have no idea what proportion of the season he'll spend hitting everything on the screws versus hitting a ton of grounders like he did until mid-April and for a week earlier this month. But if his numbers go down, it will have nothing to do with luck or regression. It will be caused by an inability to keep his mechanics locked in often enough.
And there's probably more reason to believe that his % of time locked in will be greater the rest of the way than it has been. It took him just 6 games to fix his swing this time, where it took 20 games to fix the same problem at the start of the season.
And that's the end of the "discussion" on my end. The "ignore" feature is our friend.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 22, 2019 18:07:07 GMT -5
Lol, you still admit there was no luck against Hembree. It's kind of funny at this point. That's been argued a million times. So I won't get into that. Of course, you also argued all last season that the Sox might still also be under the third highest luxury tax threshold last year too, even though there was reports about that too saying they were.
Hey, no hard feelings. I will say humility is the sincerest form of flattery though. I admit when I'm wrong all the time.
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atzar
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Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on May 22, 2019 18:10:47 GMT -5
Well, you use emotion and not stats to judge players. That's why. I tell it like I see it. I study a lot and collect a lot of information and try to make the best point possible. I use stats A LOT, stats don't always tell the whole story however. To James point, that's just the way I took his point. When he used the bolded letters to emphasise. My apologies if that wasn't his intent. You can use all of the stats in the world, but they're worthless if you misinterpret what they mean. BABIP is wrongly represented as a catch-all "luck" stat. It's not. Luck is only part of the equation. Many skill-related factors go into hitter BABIP: runner speed, launch angle, exit velocity, ability to hit to all fields. Devers' BABIP has greatly increased from last year because his quality of contact has greatly improved. This is what everybody is trying to tell you. We're seeing improvement, not luck.
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Post by grandsalami on May 22, 2019 18:16:58 GMT -5
I see our squanders are Continuing
FUNN!!.
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