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5/24-5/26 Red Sox @ Astros Series Thread
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Post by jimed14 on May 24, 2019 21:59:20 GMT -5
Here comes dmaineah.
It's so freaking unlucky to score only 3 runs when hitting 3 HR.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on May 24, 2019 22:00:06 GMT -5
Ugh. I hate seeing Osuna succeed.
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Post by wildsox on May 24, 2019 22:00:17 GMT -5
Why did Nunez hit? I dont get it. Hopefully because they are going to tell him he’s released after the game and wanted to give him one last at bat
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 24, 2019 22:00:52 GMT -5
Big time game of what ifs.....what if they played good defense. What if Mitch swung at the center cut meatball. What if Cora pinch hit for Nunez (hell, what if he went with the hot hand and played Devers?) What if Mariznek didn't play the D that we didn't. What if JDM didn't GIDP at a key spot.
Moral victory, perhaps...but that's all. Decent (not great) start by Sale, but he didn't deserve to lose this one.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 24, 2019 22:03:07 GMT -5
This game was a representation of our series vs these guys the last 2 years! We dominate them an they still manage to find a way to win. Thankfully we won the Series that counts. I'm very confident in our chances of we came across them in the playoffs.
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Post by station13 on May 24, 2019 22:10:07 GMT -5
This team is so bad at RISP. JD becomes a doubleplay machine now.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 24, 2019 22:11:11 GMT -5
This team is so bad at RISP. JD becomes a doubleplay machine now. That is my perception...not specifically about JD (tonight was not all that typical for him) - haven't checked it out (the actual stats), but we as a team do seem to roll over for easy grounders with runners on base. Cost us quite a few runs this year, for sure.
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Post by jimed14 on May 24, 2019 22:16:06 GMT -5
I don't think I'd put a lot of blame on JDM after 4 days off and a wonky back.
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Post by soxjim on May 24, 2019 22:27:41 GMT -5
Too often this year finding ways to lose on games they should've won.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 24, 2019 22:30:03 GMT -5
Too often this year finding ways to lose on games they should've won. They're getting them out of their system now so we can pile up wins in the hot days of summer
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Post by soxjim on May 24, 2019 22:32:09 GMT -5
Big time game of what ifs.....what if they played good defense. What if Mitch swung at the center cut meatball. What if Cora pinch hit for Nunez (hell, what if he went with the hot hand and played Devers?) What if Mariznek didn't play the D that we didn't. What if JDM didn't GIDP at a key spot. Moral victory, perhaps...but that's all. Decent (not great) start by Sale, but he didn't deserve to lose this one. No. Not a moral victory. Another bad loss. Not the end of the world but this team's record is representative of what they are. They aren't that good. And teams that aren;t that good (not that good at the moment) lose games like this. Maybe this year is what they are.
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db
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Post by db on May 24, 2019 22:48:51 GMT -5
This team had a bad start and since then they've gone 21-11 while missing their #2 and #3 starters for much of that stretch. You can make the argument that they mismanaged spring training and came unprepared to the season, but they pretty much seem like the .667 team of 2018. Maybe a little better, maybe a little worse.
If they play .667 the rest of the year, they'll win 74 more games, or 101 total.
They blew this game, but this is a good team and it's going to be a fun summer no doubt.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 24, 2019 22:55:44 GMT -5
Stuck around long enough to catch the circus act before heading into town for a truly bizarre art extravaganza, courtesy of someone who was a transplant into this town as a child in the 50s. He must have experienced a bunch of trance states to create all this stuff. Fascinating.
Bad juju from Bogaerts & Pearce. I'll beat a dead horse here to say that the game was quite winnable but for the errors and the untimely hitting.
So it goes. Got to win a lot more of these than you lose. Not tonight though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 24, 2019 23:13:18 GMT -5
Big time game of what ifs.....what if they played good defense. What if Mitch swung at the center cut meatball. What if Cora pinch hit for Nunez (hell, what if he went with the hot hand and played Devers?) What if Mariznek didn't play the D that we didn't. What if JDM didn't GIDP at a key spot. Moral victory, perhaps...but that's all. Decent (not great) start by Sale, but he didn't deserve to lose this one. No. Not a moral victory. Another bad loss. Not the end of the world but this team's record is representative of what they are. They aren't that good. And teams that aren;t that good (not that good at the moment) lose games like this. Maybe this year is what they are. I kind of agree, but not all the way. I mean they're on a pace to win about 86 games. I think they'll do better than that. They might even win 96 games although I tend to think they'll wind up with around 93 wins. But I agree with your overall point. Something is off about this team. They're losing games that they kind of shouldn't. It's hard because I compare them to last year's team, which is unfair because that's the gold standard of all Red Sox teams going forward. You can't realistically expect a team to win just about every game they're supposed to win plus a bunch of games they have no business winning the way the 2018 Red Sox did. But this year's team just kind of finds ways to fall a bit short. They couldn't beat a crappy Toronto team on Ring ceremony day when the home ballpark was buzzing. They're 1-5 against NY and Houston. Small sample size - sure, but if they were 5-1 I doubt anybody would be pointing that out. They're going to have to get past NY and/or Houston to go where they need to go. And they played arguably their best series of the year against Tampa sweeping them in Tampa, so then they go home and lose twice at Fenway to Tampa with only the rainout preventing TB from exacting revenge. They are a talented team capable of going on an extended run and I suspect we'll see that at some point, but I can also see them shooting themselves in the foot with another extended period of being bad just like they were in April. On balance they'll be much hotter than they will be cold, but I honestly think they'll finish 3rd in the division and snag the 2nd Wild Card. Wouldn't be surprised if they were one and done in the Wild Card game. It's kind of weird that they can't win when their ace pitches. Early on he was getting battered. Today their defense let them down and they couldn't score unless they hit a HR (they're 2 out RISP magic from last year hasn't really been there) and for some weird non-reason, they can't score when Sale takes the mound. They give him no support, so they're losing a bunch of Chris Sale starts they shouldn't be losing. I think a lot of this will turn around but not as much as I would hope for. We'll see.
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Post by soxjim on May 24, 2019 23:56:52 GMT -5
No. Not a moral victory. Another bad loss. Not the end of the world but this team's record is representative of what they are. They aren't that good. And teams that aren;t that good (not that good at the moment) lose games like this. Maybe this year is what they are. I kind of agree, but not all the way. I mean they're on a pace to win about 86 games. I think they'll do better than that. They might even win 96 games although I tend to think they'll wind up with around 93 wins. But I agree with your overall point. Something is off about this team. They're losing games that they kind of shouldn't. It's hard because I compare them to last year's team, which is unfair because that's the gold standard of all Red Sox teams going forward. You can't realistically expect a team to win just about every game they're supposed to win plus a bunch of games they have no business winning the way the 2018 Red Sox did. But this year's team just kind of finds ways to fall a bit short. They couldn't beat a crappy Toronto team on Ring ceremony day when the home ballpark was buzzing. They're 1-5 against NY and Houston. Small sample size - sure, but if they were 5-1 I doubt anybody would be pointing that out. They're going to have to get past NY and/or Houston to go where they need to go. And they played arguably their best series of the year against Tampa sweeping them in Tampa, so then they go home and lose twice at Fenway to Tampa with only the rainout preventing TB from exacting revenge. They are a talented team capable of going on an extended run and I suspect we'll see that at some point, but I can also see them shooting themselves in the foot with another extended period of being bad just like they were in April. On balance they'll be much hotter than they will be cold, but I honestly think they'll finish 3rd in the division and snag the 2nd Wild Card. Wouldn't be surprised if they were one and done in the Wild Card game. It's kind of weird that they can't win when their ace pitches. Early on he was getting battered. Today their defense let them down and they couldn't score unless they hit a HR (they're 2 out RISP magic from last year hasn't really been there) and for some weird non-reason, they can't score when Sale takes the mound. They give him no support, so they're losing a bunch of Chris Sale starts they shouldn't be losing. I think a lot of this will turn around but not as much as I would hope for. We'll see. I agree wiht what you're saying. I just want to add I said -- "Not the end of the world . . ." and I said "(not that good at the moment)" AndI said " Maybe this year is what they are." So I'm not throwing in the towel or in panic mode. Just as you say - you look at the tough teams Sox played and the record isn't good. Going forward we have 17 games vs Yanks and 14 games vs TB I think. Then throw in Minny and Cleveland-- (I know Cleveland isn't showing to be that good but they aren't bad) - it's tough. Tough to be a 96 win team when you have so many games left with Yanks and Rays. To get 96 wins they'd have to act/perform like a 100 win team. Though 93 wins - maybe gets SOx in playoffs and come playoff time Sox can be formidable.
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Post by incandenza on May 25, 2019 1:13:39 GMT -5
Wow, JBJ completely overmatched by Wade Mikey. So would you say you were disappointed by JBJ's .496 wOBA and 212 wRC+ for this game or nah?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 25, 2019 2:07:25 GMT -5
We've now hit 12 homers in the last four games plus the final inning of the game before (Bogaerts and Devers), and 11 have been solo shots. A typical breakdown would be 7 solo shots, 3 2-run, a 3-run, and an extra 2-run, 3-run, or GS.
But wait, there's more:
Our last 26 home runs have either been solo shots (20), or came while we were leading by 2 or more runs (5 with 1 man on, plus our last 3-run shot, Sandy Leon's off of Elias two weeks ago tomorrow).
You have to go back to the 5th inning on May 7th to find a HR with men on that really meant something -- Mitch Moreland's tie-breaking 3-run shot off of Branden Kline.
Before that, you have to go all the way back to ... the first inning of the same game, when JDM gave us a 2-run lead.
They're not rare: 10 of our first 45 homers were multi-run shots that tied the game, gave us the lead, broke open a game where we were up by just 1 run, or pulled us within 1 (that didn't happen, but it's a logical part of the definition of a homer that really matters). That's exactly one less than expected, as this year 24.1% of big league homers fit that criterion.
But 0 of our last 29 homers have fit it. There's 1 chance in 2917 that this would be true of a given 29 homers in a row. It's like needing to roll a 6 on a die and failing 44 straight times.
So if you're frustrated, yeah. And that's half the story of how you can outslug a team .515 to .233 (and out-OBP them .278 to .250) and lose the game.
The other half, of course: Pearce's first error costs 1.11 runs on average, Bogaerts' first 0.46, and the combo of Bogaert's error and Pearce's rundown botch is 0.83 runs (I'm not sure a good throw home gets him, so I'm looking at man on 2nd, 2 outs, run in as the baseline outcome). Seldom have 2 unearned runs been so actually unearned.
That they broke Pressly's 40-game regular-season scoreless streak and Osuna's 25-game homerless streak (he'd allowed 1 HR to his previous 251 batters, 2 to his previous 398) and still lost? Salt in the wound.
But this is bad luck, folks. And last year we played .636 ball after the first 19 games of the season. This year so far, it's .656. The roster seems to be better.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 25, 2019 8:15:45 GMT -5
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Post by station13 on May 25, 2019 8:25:37 GMT -5
It's time to hang it up, Dustin.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 25, 2019 9:01:29 GMT -5
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Post by humanbeingbean on May 25, 2019 9:55:51 GMT -5
Dustin’s team player personality will spur him to retire sooner rather than later. He won’t keep pushing himself to return if he knows deep down that he can’t help the team win on the field. A coaching position awaits, and he’ll help the Red Sox a lot more that way. But with money on the table, who knows how this’ll go down.
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Post by jimed14 on May 25, 2019 9:58:48 GMT -5
Dustin’s team player personality will spur him to retire sooner rather than later. He won’t keep pushing himself to return if he knows deep down that he can’t help the team win on the field. A coaching position awaits, and he’ll help the Red Sox a lot more that way. But with money on the table, who knows how this’ll go down. I wish they could just offer him $10 million a year to be an assistant bench coach or something.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 25, 2019 11:27:26 GMT -5
The Sox have had 11 games where the starting pitcher had an xwOBA of less than .230 (minimum 18 batters faced). The average MLB team has had 6 such starts (minimum 20 BFP), so that's a very healthy number.
The pitchers with the team record and pitcher decisions:
5 Chris Sale, 2-3, 1-2 2 Rodriguez, 2-0, 2-0 1 Eovalidi 0-1, 0-1 1 Price 1-0, 1-0 1 Weber 1-0, 1-0 1 Porcello 1-0, 1-0
I think the 5-1 record that team has in the the non-Sale games, with the starters going 5-1, is probably typical of these games. (Baseball Savant's search function has no filters for game outcome).
That Sale is 1-2 and that the team is 1-1 in his no-decisions is amazing.
I wish I knew how unusual this was (team records by cherry-picked xwOBA buckets):
7-4 < .230 7-0 .230 -.289 2-8 .290 - .339. That has to be way below normal as well.
6-4 .340 - .404
2-5 .405+
Simple wOBA buckets:
7-3 below .200 9-5 .200 to MLB average 5-5 MLB average to < .400 3-8 .400+
If a team is good enough to win half the games where the starter is below average but not awful ... losing 3 of the 10 games where the starter was tremendous is crap luck.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 25, 2019 14:32:22 GMT -5
Man, this game threads can be unreadable sometimes because of all these Debbie Downers! We hit for like 2 Miles worth of HRs and hard lineouts and we lose to a team that the hardest hit they got is was a 320 ft pop up of a home run....but hey our experts here think that this team is not good and can't win against the good teams! Lol I don't get this inferiority complex that some keep carrying from last year. Bitching and moaning about the bullpen, the situational hitting (2 of the most random aspects of baseball). Tell you what: I'll take my boys to battle against any MFing team out there and feel good about my chances! It's a deep,young, talented lineup that will draw walks, hit dingers AND hit for average! We have power hitters, we have pure hitters, we can steal a base anytime we want and we have a very very good rotation and a couple of good reliever, one of them happens to be elite and flexible in terms of usage contrary to last year where we have a prima Donna of a closer and a 4 elite hitters and 5 hitters with OPSs ranging from .700 to .500. Baseball season is a marathon and some here don't seem to understand that. They see the MFY up top and OH MY GOD, WE'RE NOT GONNA WIN THE DIVISION AND WE MAY LOSE IN THE WILD CARD GAME!!!! Seriously, why keep watching baseball if you think that the battle for the division is over? Do something else instead if we have no chance.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 25, 2019 16:30:30 GMT -5
Also, radio, I didn’t hear anyone mention that the flight from Toronto to Houston was long and scary. Their plane never got above 10,000 feet, had to dump fuel, and emergency land in Detroit. In Detroit they had to change to a new plane, transfer all the bags and gear, and take off again for a very late arrival in Houston. In addition to loss of sleep, airplane emergencies are enough to play with the minds of at least some players. Yet, they ultimately lost by one run to the “juggernaught”. Not to mention Eric’s valid and demonstrable claim claim to a run of craptastic luck. My money is still on the Sox.
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