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5/24-5/26 Red Sox @ Astros Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on May 26, 2019 16:40:29 GMT -5
I don't know, my attitude was that they had won 108 games last season and were the best team in baseball and it was weird to me that the conventional wisdom was that the Astros were favored in that series, and then the Red Sox steamrolled them (as they had New York, who they were also better than). Seems strange to try to justify the conventional wisdom view even in retrospect. As for saying the Dodgers "HAD" the Red Sox until they choked... I have no idea what that even means. Like, I don't know what to even argue with there. The Red Sox took a 2-0 series lead. Then the Dodgers won a game. Then the Red Sox won the series in 5. So... yeah. Anyway, my take is that the Red Sox are a very good and competitive team, though they are up against a couple of other very good teams in the Yankees and Astros. Fangraphs gives them a 76% chance of making the playoffs, and the 3rd-best chance of any AL team to win the World Series. I don't really see any reason those odds are wrong. It meant that the Dodgers, who hadn't blown a 4 run lead during the season, should have won Game 4. First misstep was the Roberts/Hill miscommunication. Pulling him made no sense. Making even less sense was not having Urias available to pitch the 7th when the Sox, other than the useless Kinsler, had nothing but lefty bats on the bench. They also were "resting" Baez, their other best setup arm. Contrast that with how Cora was managing and you see the difference. And as far as this season, I agree with Fangraphs. I think the Sox WILL make the playoffs. And their 3rd best chances sounds about right depending upon how healthy Snell and Glasnow wind up being for TB. Either way, I would be surprised if the Sox don't make the playoffs. They should. Other than NY and Houston and arguably TB, they're better than all the rest of the teams, although I freely admit that I have no idea how good Minnesota is. I haven't really seen them enough to know and they don't have a long enough track record over the past season or two for me to really believe in them yet. Other than Tito, I'm not really impressed with Cleveland and while I think Oakland will be better, that rotation is really unimpressive. I suppose it's true that if you discount game 4 as a Sox win merely because they were a better-managed team, then they only beat the Dodgers in 3 of the other 4 games. Anyway, sounds like we have about the same appraisal of this team and probably just have different ways of processing and expressing it, so I reckon there's not much else to say. Meanwhile, I see we beat the Astros today despite Nunez playing, so that's cool!
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Post by Guidas on May 26, 2019 16:44:36 GMT -5
Great win!
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 26, 2019 17:04:00 GMT -5
It meant that the Dodgers, who hadn't blown a 4 run lead during the season, should have won Game 4. First misstep was the Roberts/Hill miscommunication. Pulling him made no sense. Making even less sense was not having Urias available to pitch the 7th when the Sox, other than the useless Kinsler, had nothing but lefty bats on the bench. They also were "resting" Baez, their other best setup arm. Contrast that with how Cora was managing and you see the difference. And as far as this season, I agree with Fangraphs. I think the Sox WILL make the playoffs. And their 3rd best chances sounds about right depending upon how healthy Snell and Glasnow wind up being for TB. Either way, I would be surprised if the Sox don't make the playoffs. They should. Other than NY and Houston and arguably TB, they're better than all the rest of the teams, although I freely admit that I have no idea how good Minnesota is. I haven't really seen them enough to know and they don't have a long enough track record over the past season or two for me to really believe in them yet. Other than Tito, I'm not really impressed with Cleveland and while I think Oakland will be better, that rotation is really unimpressive. I suppose it's true that if you discount game 4 as a Sox win merely because they were a better-managed team, then they only beat the Dodgers in 3 of the other 4 games. Anyway, sounds like we have about the same appraisal of this team and probably just have different ways of processing and expressing it, so I reckon there's not much else to say. Meanwhile, I see we beat the Astros today despite Nunez playing, so that's cool! Not discounting the Red Sox Game 4 win at all. They ripped LA's heart out of their butts. No, my point is that the Dodgers had their foot on the Sox' throats and messed it up. I would have been ripped if I were a Dodgers fan, totally second-guessing their philosophy. I hate to say it, but it makes me think the Sox wanted it more than the Dodgers, which sounds silly, but really, what the hell were the Dodgers waiting for? They NEEDED to win that game and didn't deploy every weapon they had. Makes no sense at all. Sounds good to me. Better they screw up than the Sox. That's for sure. They opened the door for the Sox and the Sox kicked it down. Too bad for them. And yeah, quality win today. What was really cool was that Devers took Verlander deep again, he was outpitched by a Sox southpaw starter again, and they won by the same 4-1 score that they beat the Astros last season to finish them off. Thanks for the memories!
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Post by malynn19 on May 26, 2019 17:34:05 GMT -5
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Post by dirtdog on May 26, 2019 17:38:18 GMT -5
I am developing a man crush and I about old enough to be his grandfather.
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Post by dirtdog on May 26, 2019 17:41:14 GMT -5
He doesnt get many cheap ones. The only one on the team with oppo power like Raffy is JDM.
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Post by malynn19 on May 26, 2019 17:45:46 GMT -5
He doesnt get many cheap ones. The only one on the team with oppo power like Raffy is JDM. Oh I know this, but some people just won't believe it.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 26, 2019 18:45:48 GMT -5
If we can play the best AL teams to a draw and beat up on the rest, we will be fine. Great win today.
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redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,665
Member is Online
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 26, 2019 19:00:03 GMT -5
I do believe that Rafael Devers is growing up before our very eyes.
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Post by dfwsox on May 26, 2019 22:26:19 GMT -5
I do believe that Rafael Devers is growing up before our very eyes. So excited to see his development! Stud
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Post by soxjim on May 26, 2019 22:29:17 GMT -5
If we can play the best AL teams to a draw and beat up on the rest, we will be fine. Great win today. We're 5-8 so far.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 26, 2019 22:54:40 GMT -5
If we can play the best AL teams to a draw and beat up on the rest, we will be fine. Great win today. We're 5-8 so far. Note I said "if"!
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 27, 2019 1:27:36 GMT -5
Any win against Verlander is a great one. Just watched Devers' bare handed grab and off-balance throw to nab the runner at first. Straight outta Beltre an! (I could blame spellcheck, but it was late last night.)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 27, 2019 3:09:40 GMT -5
You are ringing the wrong bel. (I assume).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 27, 2019 5:27:53 GMT -5
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Post by soxjim on May 27, 2019 10:42:49 GMT -5
I don't know, my attitude was that they had won 108 games last season and were the best team in baseball and it was weird to me that the conventional wisdom was that the Astros were favored in that series, and then the Red Sox steamrolled them (as they had New York, who they were also better than). Seems strange to try to justify the conventional wisdom view even in retrospect. As for saying the Dodgers "HAD" the Red Sox until they choked... I have no idea what that even means. Like, I don't know what to even argue with there. The Red Sox took a 2-0 series lead. Then the Dodgers won a game. Then the Red Sox won the series in 5. So... yeah. Anyway, my take is that the Red Sox are a very good and competitive team, though they are up against a couple of other very good teams in the Yankees and Astros. Fangraphs gives them a 76% chance of making the playoffs, and the 3rd-best chance of any AL team to win the World Series. I don't really see any reason those odds are wrong. I'm with you. As Jon Hayman had said at the end the season last year that they all had seriously under-estimated the Red Sox. The beauty of baseball is that there is a lot of luck. In 1978 the Yanks were lucky to catch the Sox. In 1986 the Mets were lucky to beat the Sox - and maybe the Sox were lucky to beat the Angels. In 2003 were the Yanks lucky to beat the Red Sox? If not for the move of the Sox mgr keeping in Pedro? In 2004 the Sox were lucky to beat the Yanks being down 3-0. In 2007 the Sox were lucky to beat the Indians after going down 3-1. In 2013 the Sox were lucky that they got by Detroit. If Leyland used the lefty vs Papi it could have been different. If TB wins game 4 in extra innings, Sox have to face Price again. I doubt in 2004 Sox were favored. I know for a fact in 2013 they kept getting picked against on either ESPN or some other network. And last year not ONE team pushed them to a final game. IMO that's not luck as much as it was domination. While some could think that the sox had some luck vs the Dodgers, on the flip side the Dodgers were very lucky that they didn't get swept. I respectfully disagree with redsoxchamps or anyone else if they did not believe that 2018 sox team was not the best in baseball and if any were to believe they were any more "lucky" than most other championship teams. IMO last year's team was among the best 3 teams in the history of MLB over the past 40 maybe up to 50 years. I dont know much about those A's and Orioles teams in the early 70's. Nearly every year you can use an excuse that one team was lucky. For example in 2017 the Astros got to Darvish because they found out he was tipping his pitches. This was BLATANT. How is that different than the mgr pulling or not pulling a pitcher?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 27, 2019 11:55:33 GMT -5
He doesnt get many cheap ones. The only one on the team with oppo power like Raffy is JDM. Oh I know this, but some people just won't believe it. Ohh so you're just here to troll other's people's posts on a message board? Cool just so we are clear on that. The only time I have seen you on a GDT this year is when you're trolling me about Devers.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 27, 2019 12:00:14 GMT -5
Pedro....that was All Star level stuff from Devers....which I know you are rooting for. He's been playing out of his mind in May. He's doing things he has never shown consistently. May is by far the best month of his career. It's very exciting and it opens eyes, but it's been 3 weeks (short sample size) and I know everyone harps on that when a player is struggling around here and never brings it up when someone is going great.
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Post by soxjim on May 27, 2019 13:01:00 GMT -5
Pedro....that was All Star level stuff from Devers....which I know you are rooting for. He's been playing out of his mind in May. He's doing things he has never shown consistently. May is by far the best month of his career. It's very exciting and it opens eyes, but it's been 3 weeks (short sample size) and I know everyone harps on that when a player is struggling around here and never brings it up when someone is going great. As long as he helps us win, that's all that matters. Frankly, last year I was very disappointed in him (I shouldn’t have been but the problem is we all see every game and every pitch and we "bleed" every moment) until the playoffs. But I think it goes with a theme that is so hard to break after growing up and seeing the team be so close before 2004 and just not coming through. But his bat vs Houston in playoffs again turned me around. I can recall the guy from Fangraphs (I think he took a job this year with Tampa Bay) was asked around 1/3 or half the season who he thought better long-term Andujar or Devers and he said he'd take Andujar. I thought he was nuts. But as the season progresses I'm thinking in the back of my mind - maybe this dude is right. And now I swing back -- in addition I get this chip on my shoulder -- last year the team was underrated including fangraphs. The laughable points that fangraphs speaks of Yanks bullpen last few years: could be best of all-time." In 2013 I felt sox got lack of respect. I swear to God every round they were picked against. So when it comes to Devers I just have to recall the below two links / articles form Fangraphs and I’m going to stick to it. The guy is a stud and will be for a long time. We kept him instead of Moncada an imo a good reason to do so. And he’ll produce numbers for a long time. These links and take into account his age -- I'm 100% on board that the kid is going to be terrific for a long time. He has so much power. The ball jumps off his bat. True he goes after junk a lot. But still - the kid is going to be 23 in Oct. Still very young and he has produced in the playoffs overall. blogs.fangraphs.com/the-case-for-rafael-devers/blogs.fangraphs.com/we-need-to-talk-about-rafael-devers/
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 27, 2019 13:12:32 GMT -5
Two things-
Moncada going for Sale wasn't a preference of the Red Sox. He had to be in that deal. Devers being a *part* of that deal was a no go from the Red Sox side.
Devers has shown launch angle to go along with his hard hit balls lately. It could be a short sample thing, or it could be real. Who knows?
I know Eric is already telling everyone about a new stance, and frankly that's ridiculous, but hey whatever. Just glad he is launching now. He has more hard hit balls than Cody Bellinger, but half the production this year of Cody. THIS is the reason why.
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Post by malynn19 on May 27, 2019 13:14:55 GMT -5
Oh I know this, but some people just won't believe it. Ohh so you're just here to troll other's people's posts on a message board? Cool just so we are clear on that. The only time I have seen you on a GDT this year is when you're trolling me about Devers. not true I have been here for other stuff, not as much as before since the Bruins are still playing, but it's sad to see your constant attacks on Little Papi, oh wait I forgot that you are only hard on him cause you expect so much from him... Trade bait or just keeping 3rd base warm for Dalbec it's what I always get from you. On another note RIP Billy Buckner.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 27, 2019 13:18:22 GMT -5
Ohh so you're just here to troll other's people's posts on a message board? Cool just so we are clear on that. The only time I have seen you on a GDT this year is when you're trolling me about Devers. That's what she said.
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Post by jimed14 on May 27, 2019 13:18:53 GMT -5
Sure does look like a breakout for Devers.
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Post by malynn19 on May 27, 2019 13:23:19 GMT -5
And I am glad you are always on it makes this forum fun to read---- except when you mess with the baby face assassin.
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redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,665
Member is Online
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 27, 2019 16:20:47 GMT -5
I don't know, my attitude was that they had won 108 games last season and were the best team in baseball and it was weird to me that the conventional wisdom was that the Astros were favored in that series, and then the Red Sox steamrolled them (as they had New York, who they were also better than). Seems strange to try to justify the conventional wisdom view even in retrospect. As for saying the Dodgers "HAD" the Red Sox until they choked... I have no idea what that even means. Like, I don't know what to even argue with there. The Red Sox took a 2-0 series lead. Then the Dodgers won a game. Then the Red Sox won the series in 5. So... yeah. Anyway, my take is that the Red Sox are a very good and competitive team, though they are up against a couple of other very good teams in the Yankees and Astros. Fangraphs gives them a 76% chance of making the playoffs, and the 3rd-best chance of any AL team to win the World Series. I don't really see any reason those odds are wrong. I'm with you. As Jon Hayman had said at the end the season last year that they all had seriously under-estimated the Red Sox. The beauty of baseball is that there is a lot of luck. In 1978 the Yanks were lucky to catch the Sox. In 1986 the Mets were lucky to beat the Sox - and maybe the Sox were lucky to beat the Angels. In 2003 were the Yanks lucky to beat the Red Sox? If not for the move of the Sox mgr keeping in Pedro? In 2004 the Sox were lucky to beat the Yanks being down 3-0. In 2007 the Sox were lucky to beat the Indians after going down 3-1. In 2013 the Sox were lucky that they got by Detroit. If Leyland used the lefty vs Papi it could have been different. If TB wins game 4 in extra innings, Sox have to face Price again. I doubt in 2004 Sox were favored. I know for a fact in 2013 they kept getting picked against on either ESPN or some other network. And last year not ONE team pushed them to a final game. IMO that's not luck as much as it was domination. While some could think that the sox had some luck vs the Dodgers, on the flip side the Dodgers were very lucky that they didn't get swept. I respectfully disagree with redsoxchamps or anyone else if they did not believe that 2018 sox team was not the best in baseball and if any were to believe they were any more "lucky" than most other championship teams. IMO last year's team was among the best 3 teams in the history of MLB over the past 40 maybe up to 50 years. I dont know much about those A's and Orioles teams in the early 70's. Nearly every year you can use an excuse that one team was lucky. For example in 2017 the Astros got to Darvish because they found out he was tipping his pitches. This was BLATANT. How is that different than the mgr pulling or not pulling a pitcher? Actually, as it turned out the Red Sox WERE the best team in baseball for 2018. You cannot argue with 119 wins and a World Championship. I didn't think they were the most talented. The Astros were. Their pythag record was better than their 103 win season and the Sox pythag record had them around 103 wins. The Dodgers did have their chance to beat the Sox, but when they didn't shut the door on game 4 and left it open, the Sox kicked that door down. Great teams are given an inch and take a mile. The Red Sox were the best team in 2018 when all was said and done, so I don't even think we need to disagree - I think happily we actually do agree on that point Soxjim.
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