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6/14/-6/16 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 14, 2019 9:55:02 GMT -5
6/14 Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez 6-4, 5.00, 72.0 IP, 80K:22BB) @ Orioles (TBD) 7:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 6/15 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale 2-7, 3.52, 84.1 IP, 120K:20BB) @ Orioles (RHP Dylan Bundy 3-7, 4.50, 70.0 IP, 70K:24BB) 4:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 6/16 Red Sox (LHP Brian Johnson 1-0, 12.71, 5.2 IP, 7K:3BB) @ Orioles (LHP John Means 6-4, 2.60, 65.2 IP, 57K:19BB) 1:050 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2019: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 14, 2019 9:57:01 GMT -5
In the ongoing saga of "The Orioles embarrassing Chris Davis in order to tank," the guy is hitting .127/.186/.164 over the last month. And .168/.245/.297 with a -3.7 bWAR since the start of last year.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 14, 2019 10:24:40 GMT -5
Gotta sweep... Gotta sweep ..!
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Post by incandenza on Jun 14, 2019 11:30:00 GMT -5
In the ongoing saga of "The Orioles embarrassing Chris Davis in order to tank," the guy is hitting .127/.186/.164 over the last month. And .168/.245/.297 with a -3.7 bWAR since the start of last year. At least they're tanking. Meanwhile, he has the exact same fWAR this season as Eduardo Nunez. What's our excuse?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 14, 2019 11:34:51 GMT -5
In the ongoing saga of "The Orioles embarrassing Chris Davis in order to tank," the guy is hitting .127/.186/.164 over the last month. And .168/.245/.297 with a -3.7 bWAR since the start of last year. At least they're tanking. Meanwhile, he has the exact same fWAR this season as Eduardo Nunez. What's our excuse? Binky-ness?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 14, 2019 11:37:38 GMT -5
In the ongoing saga of "The Orioles embarrassing Chris Davis in order to tank," the guy is hitting .127/.186/.164 over the last month. And .168/.245/.297 with a -3.7 bWAR since the start of last year. At least they're tanking. Meanwhile, he has the exact same fWAR this season as Eduardo Nunez. What's our excuse? The Orioles are playing Davis because they're trying to lose and don't respect their players enough to put them in a position to win. The Red Sox are playing Nunez because they're being dumb. It's frustrating as hell, but I can forgive being dumb.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 14, 2019 11:37:57 GMT -5
In the ongoing saga of "The Orioles embarrassing Chris Davis in order to tank," the guy is hitting .127/.186/.164 over the last month. And .168/.245/.297 with a -3.7 bWAR since the start of last year. They really need a system for the draft that isn't just reverse order of record. They need a lot MORE than that, but as far as some low-hanging fruit for the next CBA, just make it so teams aren't actively incentivized to chase down down the '03 Tigers every year.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 14, 2019 11:40:23 GMT -5
In the ongoing saga of "The Orioles embarrassing Chris Davis in order to tank," the guy is hitting .127/.186/.164 over the last month. And .168/.245/.297 with a -3.7 bWAR since the start of last year. They really need a system for the draft that isn't just reverse order of record. They need a lot MORE than that, but as far as some low-hanging fruit for the next CBA, just make it so teams aren't actively incentivized to chase down down the '03 Tigers every year. The slotting system really reinforced it. Unless there's a Bryce Harper, having the #1 or #2 pick was often about the same, and the difference between having the #5 and #6 pick was about zero. The slotting system means a team going from 64 to 68 wins is hurting themselves. It's a total disaster.
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art
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Post by art on Jun 14, 2019 12:16:59 GMT -5
At least they're tanking. Meanwhile, he has the exact same fWAR this season as Eduardo Nunez. What's our excuse? Binky-ness? Exactly. Cora loves Nunez. It must be because of some mystical quality the rest of us dummies are unable to perceive.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 14, 2019 12:23:59 GMT -5
They really need a system for the draft that isn't just reverse order of record. They need a lot MORE than that, but as far as some low-hanging fruit for the next CBA, just make it so teams aren't actively incentivized to chase down down the '03 Tigers every year. The slotting system really reinforced it. Unless there's a Bryce Harper, having the #1 or #2 pick was often about the same, and the difference between having the #5 and #6 pick was about zero. The slotting system means a team going from 64 to 68 wins is hurting themselves. It's a total disaster. That, and I think not tanking is to front offices what not striking out is to hitters. In a previous generation, it was a point of pride to not do these things, even if it wasn't necessarily the most efficient strategy. That type of sentiment is basically gone from today's game, everyone is just ruthlessly chasing down every advantage they can get. To the extent that MLB thought about this at all, I think they probably just assumed that teams wouldn't actively try to get worse. The real galaxy-brain take here is that having all the teams on a strict budget obviates the need for a draft entirely.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 14, 2019 12:58:29 GMT -5
Exactly. Cora loves Nunez. It must be because of some mystical quality the rest of us dummies are unable to perceive. In 2019 Nunez has been totally useless. Cora noticed Nunez playing well with the Sox in 2017. Nunez did spark the Red Sox down the stretch in 2017. He was getting a lot of hits and he was showing power - I think he had 8 HRs in a two month stretch. And Cora noticed that Nunez made a tough do or die play (with Pearce's help) to end the ALDS last season with the Yankees fans making a ton of noise, and he noticed that Nunez had a huge PH HR to ice Game 1 of the World Series. If Kinsler hadn't blown Game 3 for them and the Sox had swept in 4 games, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Nunez could have gotten some consideration for the World Series MVP award. Besides the big blow, Nunez had that little dinky grounder after being upended, in which he hustled and dove into 1b with the go-ahead hit that could have been the game winner in Game 3 had Kinsler not thrown the ball away. The point is Cora has seen him succeed in key spots and I think that's part of why Cora keeps running him out there, even though we all wish he wouldn't. That, plus with Chavis starting at 2b, they don't have another backup RH hitting infielder. Both Holt and Hernandez are lefties. Because they don't have that RH backup infielder bench bat, I do think that eventually Chatham will get a shot at replacing Nunez in that role (not this year).
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 14, 2019 14:01:43 GMT -5
The slotting system really reinforced it. Unless there's a Bryce Harper, having the #1 or #2 pick was often about the same, and the difference between having the #5 and #6 pick was about zero. The slotting system means a team going from 64 to 68 wins is hurting themselves. It's a total disaster. That, and I think not tanking is to front offices what not striking out is to hitters. In a previous generation, it was a point of pride to not do these things, even if it wasn't necessarily the most efficient strategy. That type of sentiment is basically gone from today's game, everyone is just ruthlessly chasing down every advantage they can get. To the extent that MLB thought about this at all, I think they probably just assumed that teams wouldn't actively try to get worse. The real galaxy-brain take here is that having all the teams on a strict budget obviates the need for a draft entirely. So one thing that happened when front offices were filled with old base ball men is that it would've been considered disrespectful to the players to field a team that wasn't the best it could be. I'm not really talking about the very olden days when the ownership chose players and then tried paying them as little as possible, but the period up until the '90's or 00's before the statistical revolution took hold and every GM was an Ivy League grad. There was a tension between the owners and players for sure, but baseball operations was firmly in between, trying to field the best roster possible and sometimes at odds with ownership about how to do that. I was reminded earlier this week about the words of a prominent sabermetrician, who currently works for a team that has a lot of very good baseball players: You're telling me that those are the words of someone who gives a damn if they embarrass Chris Davis for a few months if it gives them a slightly higher bonus pool?
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art
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Post by art on Jun 14, 2019 15:05:06 GMT -5
Sox put Brian Johnson on 25-man roster & option Travis. Anyone see the logic of doing this before Sunday?
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Post by Canseco on Jun 14, 2019 15:10:22 GMT -5
Sox put Brian Johnson on 25-man roster & option Travis. Anyone see the logic of doing this before Sunday? Not really, but maybe they want Johnson available in case the bullpen needs some length prior to Sunday? If that happens, someone would obviously replace Johnson. It seems like there would be a more efficient way to protect the pen a bit, though.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 14, 2019 15:13:39 GMT -5
Sox put Brian Johnson on 25-man roster & option Travis. Anyone see the logic of doing this before Sunday? The Sox just used every pitcher from the roster yesterday, besides Hembree who's dinged up apparently. The Sox don't have a well rested pitcher on this roster at the moment. You could see Johnson for a inning or two tonight.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 14, 2019 15:16:54 GMT -5
Johnson is available tonight, yes. They can reshuffle Sunday if they need to.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 14, 2019 15:31:00 GMT -5
It was the 30th day of his rehab assignment. They had to activate him today.
Edit: as far as availability, Barnes and Workman are the only ones who probably can't go due to workload (2 straight and 3 of 4). You probably stay away from Shawaryn since he hasn't done back to backs before. Pending Hembree's health, you also have Walden, Brewer, Lakins, Smith. Also, Brasier can be activated beginning tomorrow, so there's one reinforcement coming. I think Johnson is an option tonight, but only if Erod gets chased early.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 14, 2019 15:36:50 GMT -5
That, and I think not tanking is to front offices what not striking out is to hitters. In a previous generation, it was a point of pride to not do these things, even if it wasn't necessarily the most efficient strategy. That type of sentiment is basically gone from today's game, everyone is just ruthlessly chasing down every advantage they can get. To the extent that MLB thought about this at all, I think they probably just assumed that teams wouldn't actively try to get worse. The real galaxy-brain take here is that having all the teams on a strict budget obviates the need for a draft entirely. So one thing that happened when front offices were filled with old base ball men is that it would've been considered disrespectful to the players to field a team that wasn't the best it could be. I'm not really talking about the very olden days when the ownership chose players and then tried paying them as little as possible, but the period up until the '90's or 00's before the statistical revolution took hold and every GM was an Ivy League grad. There was a tension between the owners and players for sure, but baseball operations was firmly in between, trying to field the best roster possible and sometimes at odds with ownership about how to do that. I was reminded earlier this week about the words of a prominent sabermetrician, who currently works for a team that has a lot of very good baseball players: You're telling me that those are the words of someone who gives a damn if they embarrass Chris Davis for a few months if it gives them a slightly higher bonus pool? This is kind of a fascinating metonym for a society that elevates productivity and efficiency over all non-quantifiable human values. (Compare: the shareholder theory of value.) It's definitely a worldview cultivated in the Ivies, and it's exactly what you see in that quote there. I'm a pro-sabermetrics guy, but when people rail against those durn-blasted new-fangled stats, I can always sympathize a little bit, because I think what they ultimately feel anxious about is that suppression of the human, which is a real problem in our world today. The frustration is misplaced - RBIs and pitcher wins aren't ultimately more humane than WAR or FIP - but I can understand where it's coming from.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jun 14, 2019 16:16:06 GMT -5
Feel like my vocabulary is relatively strong. Had to look up “metonym”. Nice.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 14, 2019 16:20:18 GMT -5
They really need a system for the draft that isn't just reverse order of record. They need a lot MORE than that, but as far as some low-hanging fruit for the next CBA, just make it so teams aren't actively incentivized to chase down down the '03 Tigers every year. The slotting system really reinforced it. Unless there's a Bryce Harper, having the #1 or #2 pick was often about the same, and the difference between having the #5 and #6 pick was about zero. The slotting system means a team going from 64 to 68 wins is hurting themselves. It's a total disaster. A minimum payroll is one obvious idea.
A more complicated one that I had a while ago was to draft by wins relative to payroll. You would specify in the CBA the number of years of data to be used for the calculation. It's then trivial to just regress wins against payroll, derive expected wins based on payroll, and calculate wins above or below that. You might want to use projected wins based on raw stats instead of actual wins (i.e., ignoring Win Efficiency).
Now, this might give a really talented high-payroll team that had a terrible year due to injuries an unfairly good draft slot. But it would be pretty simple to do this retroactively on paper, look at results that seem unfair,and come up with an optimal system. The simplest thing would be to rank the clubs both ways and, for teams in the top half or third of payroll, their draft position is the weaker of the two. But you could use a weighted average of the last 3 years, or you could combine actual wins and win differential.
This would have benefits beyond eliminating tanking. It also makes gambling on big long-term contracts more palatable, which the players would love. A team with a huge payroll of now-aging stars that is stuck playing .450 ball will be drafting much closer to the front of the draft.
Now, you can argue that this rewards stupid teams and penalizes smart ones. But the stupid teams usually bring in a new front office people, so what actually will happen is that a team that makes a bunch of bad signings and then changes at least some element of management doesn't have to go from weak to awful in order to rebuild.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 14, 2019 16:46:40 GMT -5
It was the 30th day of his rehab assignment. They had to activate him today. Edit: as far as availability, Barnes and Workman are the only ones who probably can't go due to workload (2 straight and 3 of 4). You probably stay away from Shawaryn since he hasn't done back to backs before. Pending Hembree's health, you also have Walden, Brewer, Lakins, Smith. Also, Brasier can be activated beginning tomorrow, so there's one reinforcement coming. I think Johnson is an option tonight, but only if Erod gets chased early. Hembree to the IL. Taylor up.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 14, 2019 17:00:50 GMT -5
In the ongoing saga of " The Orioles embarrassing Chris Davis in order to tank," the guy is hitting .127/.186/.164 over the last month. And .168/.245/.297 with a -3.7 bWAR since the start of last year. Isn't Chris Davis embarrassing himself? Davis is contributing to their failure for sure, but they would suck anyway so I'm not sure it's fair to draw a direct correlation. As someone else pointed out, Nunez has been about as good over the same time period so it's not completely outrageous for the team to just be hoping that he turns things around and they get some sort of return on one of the worst contracts in sports. It may not be the most empathetic approach on the part of the team, but Davis is getting paid $23M per year to play baseball so I don't know that it's too much to ask that he play baseball. I'd play naked for $23M per year. It's just plain stupid that the Orioles don't tell him to go home and never come back. The checks will be in the mail. The Orioles are embarrassing themselves and if I were an Orioles fan, I would no longer be one.
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Post by p23w on Jun 14, 2019 17:01:58 GMT -5
In the ongoing saga of " The Orioles embarrassing Chris Davis in order to tank," the guy is hitting .127/.186/.164 over the last month. And .168/.245/.297 with a -3.7 bWAR since the start of last year. Isn't Chris Davis embarrassing himself? Davis is contributing to their failure for sure, but they would suck anyway so I'm not sure it's fair to draw a direct correlation. As someone else pointed out, Nunez has been about as good over the same time period so it's not completely outrageous for the team to just be hoping that he turns things around and they get some sort of return on one of the worst contracts in sports. It may not be the most empathetic approach on the part of the team, but Davis is getting paid $23M per year to play baseball so I don't know that it's too much to ask that he play baseball. The Sox are paying a AAA Ofer $20M a year to play baseball. Probably more than Baltimore's AAA affiliates entire payroll.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 14, 2019 18:32:36 GMT -5
thank God...Brock covers for ERod.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 14, 2019 18:33:47 GMT -5
This rotation expect for Price has a serious problem with giving up homeruns.
Thank goodness the Orioles are way worse at giving up homeruns all year.
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