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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 8, 2019 16:35:46 GMT -5
Unless the Mets are stupid and trade him at the value of his 6-6 record and 4.69 ERA and not the kind of pitcher he really is I'm not a fan of it unless they are able to give him an extension.
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 8, 2019 16:38:50 GMT -5
I actually like this move at a reasonable cost. Wheeler is an elite arm talent unlike boyd, he throws serious heat and his slider is nasty! As long as we don't have to give up any top 5 caliber prospect (Dalbec, Mata, Darwinzon, Duran, Groome, Casas)...... I'm good with it.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2019 16:46:06 GMT -5
I actually like this move at a reasonable cost. Wheeler is an elite arm talent unlike boyd, he throws serious heat and his slider is nasty! As long as we don't have to give up any top 5 caliber prospect (Dalbec, Mata, Darwinzon, Duran, Groome, Casas)...... I'm good with it. Except... I feel like we would probably have to give up at least one of those guys? Our very best prospect, Casas, is a fringe top-100 guy, and it seems like it would take at least that much. But I don't know, I sort of don't remember what the in-season trade market is like. I'd love to hear irresponsible speculation from anyone who thinks they can guess what it would take to get a guy like Wheeler.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jul 8, 2019 16:51:52 GMT -5
I actually like this move at a reasonable cost. Wheeler is an elite arm talent unlike boyd, he throws serious heat and his slider is nasty! As long as we don't have to give up any top 5 caliber prospect (Dalbec, Mata, Darwinzon, Duran, Groome, Casas)...... I'm good with it. Except... I feel like we would probably have to give up at least one of those guys? Our very best prospect, Casas, is a fringe top-100 guy, and it seems like it would take at least that much. But I don't know, I sort of don't remember what the in-season trade market is like. I'd love to hear irresponsible speculation from anyone who thinks they can guess what it would take to get a guy like Wheeler. I was hoping we could get it done with just Nunez and Thornburg.
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Post by prangerx on Jul 8, 2019 17:02:21 GMT -5
I actually like this move at a reasonable cost. Wheeler is an elite arm talent unlike boyd, he throws serious heat and his slider is nasty! As long as we don't have to give up any top 5 caliber prospect (Dalbec, Mata, Darwinzon, Duran, Groome, Casas)...... I'm good with it. Except... I feel like we would probably have to give up at least one of those guys? Our very best prospect, Casas, is a fringe top-100 guy, and it seems like it would take at least that much. But I don't know, I sort of don't remember what the in-season trade market is like. I'd love to hear irresponsible speculation from anyone who thinks they can guess what it would take to get a guy like Wheeler. I thought the same thing at first. But thats thinking of Wheeler from where he was a few years back. He isn't a young pitcher under team control anymore. He is a 500 pitcher on a bad team, about to finish his walk year. There not getting a top 100 prospect prospect for Wheeler as a rental. It actually is should be a very similar deal to the Evalodi trade last year. Who was basically in the same boat.
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Post by tizzle on Jul 8, 2019 17:13:48 GMT -5
So, we're going to rely on a starter turned reliever with a history of arm troubles and assume he's going to become a solid closer, then trade for a rental pitcher with a history of arm troubles in the middle of a bad year to replace him in the rotation.
Shrewd.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 8, 2019 17:16:12 GMT -5
I think Wheeler would be a terrific get, but it’s basically guaranteed to be a horrendous trade because of what the Sox will end up sacrificing. Dalbec has no home on the Sox for a while, and with Devers he essentially is redundant and tradable. That said, I could see him being a perennial GG contender hitting .240/.350/.500+ with 30 or more HR, and probably 40+. That’s just way, way too much to sacrifice for a 3-mo rental on a guy who could easily wind up going 3-6, 5.00 and leaving with no compensation. If the Sox could work out a reasonable extension beforehand, I’d feel a little better, but still...their bigger rental trades have almost always been terrible, or at best vaguely regrettable. OTOH, a harnessed Wheeler would be a force.
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Post by jbsox on Jul 8, 2019 17:40:02 GMT -5
I think Wheeler would be a terrific get, but it’s basically guaranteed to be a horrendous trade because of what the Sox will end up sacrificing. Dalbec has no home on the Sox for a while, and with Devers he essentially is redundant and tradable. That said, I could see him being a perennial GG contender hitting .240/.350/.500+ with 30 or more HR, and probably 40+. That’s just way, way too much to sacrifice for a 3-mo rental on a guy who could easily wind up going 3-6, 5.00 and leaving with no compensation. If the Sox could work out a reasonable extension beforehand, I’d feel a little better, but still...their bigger rental trades have almost always been terrible, or at best vaguely regrettable. OTOH, a harnessed Wheeler would be a force. First time poster here. Love reading your insight. Do you think it would require similar value to what we gave up for Eovaldi? Jalen Beeks pitched very well for the Pawtucket Red Sox last year and has continued to do so at the MLB level, but I don’t think anyone thought of him as a top prospect. Maybe this years Jalen Beeks is someone like Thad Ward?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 8, 2019 21:20:18 GMT -5
I think Wheeler would be a terrific get, but it’s basically guaranteed to be a horrendous trade because of what the Sox will end up sacrificing. Dalbec has no home on the Sox for a while, and with Devers he essentially is redundant and tradable. That said, I could see him being a perennial GG contender hitting .240/.350/.500+ with 30 or more HR, and probably 40+. That’s just way, way too much to sacrifice for a 3-mo rental on a guy who could easily wind up going 3-6, 5.00 and leaving with no compensation. If the Sox could work out a reasonable extension beforehand, I’d feel a little better, but still...their bigger rental trades have almost always been terrible, or at best vaguely regrettable. OTOH, a harnessed Wheeler would be a force. That paragraph basically excludes the value of making the playoffs. A bit of a crap shoot but that's how these things work.
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2019 23:13:10 GMT -5
I think Wheeler would be a terrific get, but it’s basically guaranteed to be a horrendous trade because of what the Sox will end up sacrificing. Dalbec has no home on the Sox for a while, and with Devers he essentially is redundant and tradable. That said, I could see him being a perennial GG contender hitting .240/.350/.500+ with 30 or more HR, and probably 40+. That’s just way, way too much to sacrifice for a 3-mo rental on a guy who could easily wind up going 3-6, 5.00 and leaving with no compensation. If the Sox could work out a reasonable extension beforehand, I’d feel a little better, but still...their bigger rental trades have almost always been terrible, or at best vaguely regrettable. OTOH, a harnessed Wheeler would be a force. This is incredibly optimistic. A gold glover with 40+ home runs? That is quite a projection for a guy who is not a top 100 prospect. Obviously if that is his future, he is untouchable. I am less confident. If they can get Wheeler for Dalbec, I’m in.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 8, 2019 23:29:55 GMT -5
Wheeler is a decent pitcher, certainly much better what they got - an obvious upgrade.
However, I would not deal away Dalbec for a rental.
It's such a small sample size of games. I could see Wheeler being kind of the way Jake Peavy was in 2013, valuable because he's much better than replacement level, but not really an impact player.
But what concerns me is that Wheeler is likely gone at the end of the year. Now you have to fill that spot, preferably with a low cost pitcher. If you believe Johnson can be that low cost pitcher, that's a tough sell given his injury track record.
So now you've already used up your best trade chip, especially one, that despite the probability that he'd never be a 3b for the Red Sox, might actually be able to be a cheap contributor to the 2020 Red Sox if Chavis winds up at 2b and Dalbec could be the 1b. You lose that possibility.
There's two schools of thought regarding Dalbec, one scenario where he hits .230 - .250 with an OPS well north of .800 and another where he's Rob Deer-like hitting .200 or below with an OBP in the low .700s. I think he winds up somewhere in the middle of those projections with a possibility of having a season or two where he exceeds his best expectations. I can see him hitting around .215 - .220 with an upper .700 OPS held down by the BA. I do think there will be a couple of .250ish types of seasons with 35 - 40 HRs that get his OPS into the mid .800s - kind of like Todd Frazier I suppose. I just think that's worth more than 3 months of Zach Wheeler.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2019 23:46:30 GMT -5
I'd only give up Dalbec for a pitcher with more than 2 months of control.
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Post by Coreno on Jul 9, 2019 0:09:41 GMT -5
I think Wheeler would be a terrific get, but it’s basically guaranteed to be a horrendous trade because of what the Sox will end up sacrificing. Dalbec has no home on the Sox for a while, and with Devers he essentially is redundant and tradable. That said, I could see him being a perennial GG contender hitting .240/.350/.500+ with 30 or more HR, and probably 40+. That’s just way, way too much to sacrifice for a 3-mo rental on a guy who could easily wind up going 3-6, 5.00 and leaving with no compensation. If the Sox could work out a reasonable extension beforehand, I’d feel a little better, but still...their bigger rental trades have almost always been terrible, or at best vaguely regrettable. OTOH, a harnessed Wheeler would be a force. This is incredibly optimistic. A gold glover with 40+ home runs? That is quite a projection for a guy who is not a top 100 prospect. Obviously if that is his future, he is untouchable. I am less confident. If they can get Wheeler for Dalbec, I’m in. Regardless of projections of him, isn't that too much for a rental? Last year, we got Eovaldi for our #6 prospect, straight up. I bring that up because I actually think our current #6 is a good jumping off point for Wheeler. Chatham + a lottery ticket guy could get it done, no? Obviously there are variables at play like how much of the remaining salary DD wants the Mets to eat, and other bidders, that could drive the price up.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2019 0:16:03 GMT -5
Let's put it this way. Is there any indication that Steve Pearce is going to contribute more to the Red Sox this season than Brian Dalbec?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 9, 2019 0:24:53 GMT -5
This is incredibly optimistic. A gold glover with 40+ home runs? That is quite a projection for a guy who is not a top 100 prospect. Obviously if that is his future, he is untouchable. I am less confident. If they can get Wheeler for Dalbec, I’m in. Regardless of projections of him, isn't that too much for a rental? Last year, we got Eovaldi for our #6 prospect, straight up. I bring that up because I actually think our current #6 is a good jumping off point for Wheeler. Chatham + a lottery ticket guy could get it done, no? Obviously there are variables at play like how much of the remaining salary DD wants the Mets to eat, and other bidders, that could drive the price up. Wheeler fits into the description of guys the Sox can afford the rest of the way and still be under the third threshold. He's making less than 3 million the rest of the season and the Sox can pay that freight and still be under. If the Mets settle for a Chatham and a lottery ticket package for Wheeler, then my name must be Abraham Lincoln. That's a horrible offer. I don't know what value Chatham has in a trade besides "throw in" at this point.
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Post by manfred on Jul 9, 2019 0:45:15 GMT -5
This is incredibly optimistic. A gold glover with 40+ home runs? That is quite a projection for a guy who is not a top 100 prospect. Obviously if that is his future, he is untouchable. I am less confident. If they can get Wheeler for Dalbec, I’m in. Regardless of projections of him, isn't that too much for a rental? Last year, we got Eovaldi for our #6 prospect, straight up. I bring that up because I actually think our current #6 is a good jumping off point for Wheeler. Chatham + a lottery ticket guy could get it done, no? Obviously there are variables at play like how much of the remaining salary DD wants the Mets to eat, and other bidders, that could drive the price up. Too much on a rental from the Mets perspective? A 29-year old who throws high 90s with good secondary stuff? No. The Mets might as well keep him if all they can get is, what, a utility infielder and a lotto ticket? Do you think the Yankees can’t/won’t offer more?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 9, 2019 8:44:15 GMT -5
Regardless of projections of him, isn't that too much for a rental? Last year, we got Eovaldi for our #6 prospect, straight up. I bring that up because I actually think our current #6 is a good jumping off point for Wheeler. Chatham + a lottery ticket guy could get it done, no? Obviously there are variables at play like how much of the remaining salary DD wants the Mets to eat, and other bidders, that could drive the price up. Too much on a rental from the Mets perspective? A 29-year old who throws high 90s with good secondary stuff? No. The Mets might as well keep him if all they can get is, what, a utility infielder and a lotto ticket? Do you think the Yankees can’t/won’t offer more? Doubtful the Yankees would be in on Wheeler. They seem to be more focused on getting someone like Stroman. Point stands that someone might up the ante, but then again, I think Wheeler is comparable to Eovaldi and would likely require a similar offering.
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Post by manfred on Jul 9, 2019 9:20:55 GMT -5
Too much on a rental from the Mets perspective? A 29-year old who throws high 90s with good secondary stuff? No. The Mets might as well keep him if all they can get is, what, a utility infielder and a lotto ticket? Do you think the Yankees can’t/won’t offer more? Doubtful the Yankees would be in on Wheeler. They seem to be more focused on getting someone like Stroman. Point stands that someone might up the ante, but then again, I think Wheeler is comparable to Eovaldi and would likely require a similar offering. The way this season is going, the Yankees will probably get Scherzer.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2019 9:25:30 GMT -5
Doubtful the Yankees would be in on Wheeler. They seem to be more focused on getting someone like Stroman. Point stands that someone might up the ante, but then again, I think Wheeler is comparable to Eovaldi and would likely require a similar offering. The way this season is going, the Yankees will probably get Scherzer. No way Scherzer gets traded. Nationals are back in playoff position.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 9, 2019 9:33:11 GMT -5
The way this season is going, the Yankees will probably get Scherzer. No way Scherzer gets traded. Nationals are back in playoff position. The spread of Galaxy Brain syndrome among baseball fans has officially accelerated to a full on pandemic. Team around .500 after two months? Trade away the best pitcher in the game! It's the only smart move!
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Post by manfred on Jul 9, 2019 9:49:34 GMT -5
No way Scherzer gets traded. Nationals are back in playoff position. The spread of Galaxy Brain syndrome among baseball fans has officially accelerated to a full on pandemic. Team around .500 after two months? Trade away the best pitcher in the game! It's the only smart move! I was kidding.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 9, 2019 9:51:58 GMT -5
The spread of Galaxy Brain syndrome among baseball fans has officially accelerated to a full on pandemic. Team around .500 after two months? Trade away the best pitcher in the game! It's the only smart move! I was kidding. I know, but the only reason there's a joke to be made there is that people have been discussing a Scherzer trade all season.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 9, 2019 10:17:10 GMT -5
Damn Yanks have the farm and duplication to outbid anyone for any available pitching. Andujar and Frazier are starters anywhere. The farm is still stacked due to sagacious trading....Oooff.
Wheeler is the cheapest for the Sox off this year and as a rental. But still... I remember Larry Anderson, rental, for Jeff Bagwell.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 9, 2019 10:26:03 GMT -5
Damn Yanks have the farm and duplication to outbid anyone for any available pitching. Their farm system is barely better than Boston's.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2019 11:18:55 GMT -5
Let's put it this way. Is there any indication that Steve Pearce is going to contribute more to the Red Sox this season than Brian Dalbec? The Freudian slip here is phenomenal.
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