SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by sarasoxer on Jul 9, 2019 11:35:34 GMT -5
Damn Yanks have the farm and duplication to outbid anyone for any available pitching. Their farm system is barely better than Boston's. Really? I saw us ranked 30th. I saw the Yankees in top 5 early 2019 altho now 15-20 depending on who's grading. According to bleacher, we are still last mid year. Yankees were rated to have the best first 10 picks of 2019 amateur draft in one listing I saw. Just looked at others and again it depends on the grader....where they are in middle.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2019 11:39:47 GMT -5
Let's put it this way. Is there any indication that Steve Pearce is going to contribute more to the Red Sox this season than Brian Dalbec? The Freudian slip here is phenomenal. Haha, that's what I get for posting after midnight. Nothing good happens after midnight. Clearly, I meant Daubach.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan2015 on Jul 9, 2019 11:45:44 GMT -5
Their farm system is barely better than Boston's. Really? I saw us ranked 30th. I saw the Yankees in top 5...for 2019. Yankees were also rated to have the best first 10 picks of 2019 amateur draft. The yankees most certainly aren’t top 5 and the Red Sox are around middle of the pack. You must have read something from a few years back.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan511 on Jul 9, 2019 11:47:13 GMT -5
Well Yankees just spent 5 million on a 5 tool prospect ranked as the best in years
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Jul 9, 2019 11:48:41 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jul 9, 2019 11:57:22 GMT -5
Considering how thin the system is.. I'm for standing pat regardless, unless some really decent reliever is available dirt cheap. IMO, Boyd isn't any better than brian Johnson, who is a sub 5th starter himself and expect boyd to revert to reallity at any moment. If have to, let Wright go a few starts until his knee falls off. This is an older comment so if you've been bombarded with comments that don't agree i apologize. Imo Boyd and Brian are much different pitchers. Boyd has an elite out pitch and the ability to miss bats. He's also playing with a poor defense behind him and although it's in a pitchers park at this point I'd say they're all hitters parks. I can't say I'd be willing to give up some A-listers to get him, but I'd offer he's far better than an number 5. On a better team with a little more seasoning he looks pretty good long term. Lefty with an elite (or close to it this year) breaking pitch aren't that easy to come by.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jul 9, 2019 11:57:51 GMT -5
Well Yankees just spent 5 million on a 5 tool prospect ranked as the best in years He's 16 right? He's not moving the needle on the farm system rankings - not yet anyway.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 9, 2019 12:10:07 GMT -5
Their farm system is barely better than Boston's. Really? I saw us ranked 30th. I saw the Yankees in top 5 early 2019 altho now 15-20 depending on who's grading. According to bleacher, we are still last mid year. Yankees were rated to have the best first 10 picks of 2019 amateur draft in one listing I saw. Just looked at others and again it depends on the grader....where they are in middle. Fangraphs and MILB Pipeline both had them 25th. Baseball America had zero Yankees in the top 100 headed into the season.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan2015 on Jul 9, 2019 12:46:03 GMT -5
Like i said, yankees farm system is nowhere near the top 5 in any 2019 rankings. As for the Red Sox being 30th on bleacher report, that shouldn’t even be looked at. Bleacher Report should never be looked at
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 9, 2019 16:44:04 GMT -5
Like i said, yankees farm system is nowhere near the top 5 in any 2019 rankings. As for the Red Sox being 30th on bleacher report, that shouldn’t even be looked at. Bleacher Report should never be looked at The Yankees have plenty to deal regardless of where their farm system is ranked- Jordan Montgomery Clint Frazier Miguel Andujar Jonathan Loaisiga That's like a better starting point then most teams in MLB.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Jul 9, 2019 16:46:28 GMT -5
Like i said, yankees farm system is nowhere near the top 5 in any 2019 rankings. As for the Red Sox being 30th on bleacher report, that shouldn’t even be looked at. Bleacher Report should never be looked at Ok. Law has us at 24 and prospect digest at 27th in addition to Bleacher at 30th. I think you said that it's been a number of years when the Yankees were in the top 5. Law had them 2 last year. As was pointed out, Frazier, now back in the minors, surely boosts the rating. My basic point was that Yanks can outbid us.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 9, 2019 16:57:24 GMT -5
It would be very Dave Dombrowski like if Wheeler was the target. It would also be very Dave Dombrowski like if he paid 10 times extra for Wheeler and tried to get Edwin Diaz in a package with Wheeler. Diaz is making close to the MLB minimum this year and the Sox can afford both players.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,067
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Jul 9, 2019 17:21:43 GMT -5
Well Yankees just spent 5 million on a 5 tool prospect ranked as the best in years He's 16 right? He's not moving the needle on the farm system rankings - not yet anyway. Yeah the last time a 16 yr old was gonna move the needle around here he tragically got cancer and died before we even got to know him. They are so far away and so much can happen that it’s pointless to get worked up about 16 year olds one way or another. I think the Sox are in a better position to give up farm assets than they have been the past couple of years, particularly in the lower minors. I think they have enough to go out and get an impact starter if they so choose. While not my target I also believe Boyd is much better than he’s given credit for
|
|
|
Post by patford on Jul 9, 2019 18:02:21 GMT -5
I hate the idea of trading Dalbec without first testing to see if his stuff plays at the MLB level. If any need at all arises I'd like to see him called up for a spell to see if he is one of those guys who basically hit the same at every level. In other words he hits .235 with a decent OBP and hits bombs. He's old enough to not have to worry about options.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 9, 2019 20:35:10 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 9, 2019 22:17:05 GMT -5
I think Wheeler would be a terrific get, but it’s basically guaranteed to be a horrendous trade because of what the Sox will end up sacrificing. Dalbec has no home on the Sox for a while, and with Devers he essentially is redundant and tradable. That said, I could see him being a perennial GG contender hitting .240/.350/.500+ with 30 or more HR, and probably 40+. That’s just way, way too much to sacrifice for a 3-mo rental on a guy who could easily wind up going 3-6, 5.00 and leaving with no compensation. If the Sox could work out a reasonable extension beforehand, I’d feel a little better, but still...their bigger rental trades have almost always been terrible, or at best vaguely regrettable. OTOH, a harnessed Wheeler would be a force. First time poster here. Love reading your insight. Do you think it would require similar value to what we gave up for Eovaldi? Jalen Beeks pitched very well for the Pawtucket Red Sox last year and has continued to do so at the MLB level, but I don’t think anyone thought of him as a top prospect. Maybe this years Jalen Beeks is someone like Thad Ward? Yeah, that’s a good question and probably a spot-on suggestion. TB imo has been sorta exploiting a market inefficiency by acquiring pitchers who are flawed but also have significant value *if used properly.* Sort of a Belicheckian approach...tailor the role to the player, instead of vice versa. One guy who is a good example is Glasnow (who they bought low on and who’s since blossomed), who was viewed as a great stuff/weak command pitcher who couldn’t likely go 6-7 (due to inefficiency) but seemed capable of very good 3-5 inning stretches. And Beeks was generally viewed as a tweener/swingman/5 with possible 4 upside who had multiple avg to solid-avg pitches, and average command, but couldn’t likely go 6-7 due to 3rd-time-through-order penalty (a product of middling stuff). TB was experimenting with the “opener”/“bulk inning” mix, and acquired those guys because they could plug them in for several innings without taxing their limits, setting them up for success (and apparently, confidence and continued development). So Beeks had particular value to TB that he didn’t to teams using a conventional approach. He was also MLB-ready and showed flashes of being something more (the CU became his swing-and-miss pitch in late AA I think, and then moreso in AAA). His MLB-readiness added some value. Ward isn’t as close, so he’s got a little less value on that front, but he’s also shown significant development and looks like he might fit that 4/5/swingman role as well. Due to age he’s probably a fair bit more projectable than Beeks, or at least has a slightly higher ceiling (but lower floor). So yeah, I think you might be right in that he’s probably overall similar in value, maybe slightly less due to the higher risk/not being able to jump in right away. But I could see him in a deal (I’d prefer not, but for Wheeler, especially if he’d sign a reasonable extension, I’d probably do it). Good call; I expect they’d have to include another low-level guy and/or someone like Shawaryn, but it’s a good thought. Ward sorta reminds me of Shaun Anderson, who the Sox traded with Greg Santos for Eduardo Nunez. Ward’s performed significantly better and I think has a little better stuff now, and more upside and thus might have a little more value; Wheeler likewise is going to command more than Nunez. We’ll see, because NY is in on kicking the tires too. As a deadline “need” deal, I suspect it’ll hurt regardless.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 9, 2019 22:18:25 GMT -5
Btw, congrats on jumping in the pool and throwing your thoughts in the mix. Welcome!
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 9, 2019 22:32:07 GMT -5
Well Yankees just spent 5 million on a 5 tool prospect ranked as the best in years He's 16 right? He's not moving the needle on the farm system rankings - not yet anyway. FG guys have put a 50 FV on him and place him around 50-60 overall in baseball; say he’d have gone top-3 in this draft, probably 2. So he definitely moves the needle a fair amount. Not gonna jump 10 spots but maybe 5.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 9, 2019 22:47:45 GMT -5
I think Wheeler would be a terrific get, but it’s basically guaranteed to be a horrendous trade because of what the Sox will end up sacrificing. Dalbec has no home on the Sox for a while, and with Devers he essentially is redundant and tradable. That said, I could see him being a perennial GG contender hitting .240/.350/.500+ with 30 or more HR, and probably 40+. That’s just way, way too much to sacrifice for a 3-mo rental on a guy who could easily wind up going 3-6, 5.00 and leaving with no compensation. If the Sox could work out a reasonable extension beforehand, I’d feel a little better, but still...their bigger rental trades have almost always been terrible, or at best vaguely regrettable. OTOH, a harnessed Wheeler would be a force. That paragraph basically excludes the value of making the playoffs. A bit of a crap shoot but that's how these things work. I do think the Sox have a specific deficiency that Wheeler would address and thus increase their playoff odds. OTOH I’m not sure he does so significantly, nor that he increases their WS odds all that much. If he pitches to or better than his FIP/xFIP (and he’s coming from a pitcher’s park, so the odds are moderate but not great), then yeah, he probably increases their playoff odds 5-20% (the 20% being if he goes Doyle Alexander, which is obviously very unlikely), and WS odds maybe 0.5-3%. That’s his only value to them, since he’s a FA and almost certain to test the waters with no QO. And if he pitches any worse, he probably moves the needle zero. I’d put the outcome at 50/50, meaning he only helps them half the time and probably not substantially. I’d bet he’s a real difference-maker as a 1-5 to 1-10 shot. Those aren’t very good odds. It’s individual preference as to whether those marginal gains are really worth it, especially when Dalbec or anyone else could have similar value for a deal next year, or as a regular in the future, potentially a very good one. Rental trades are terrible value, extensively documented. I do think it’s fair to speculate this year given the team’s current position and 5th starter hole, but the vast majority of outcomes are effectively unchanged.
|
|
|
Post by sparkygian on Jul 10, 2019 0:41:17 GMT -5
It was very disappointing to see Shaun Anderson get traded for Nunez. Anderson was fairly new to the Sox system, as he only pitched in 20 games in lower levels of Sox systen, and hadn't had overwhelming success, but he had three to four solid-average to better pitches, and a starting pitcher's physique to go with it. Less than two years later he's starting games for SF. Frustrating, especially with the bad history over last seven years, at least, that Sox have failed to develop any really intriguing starting pitchers.
Nunez played great, but Sox were not really a serious enough contender that year (Astros, Dodgers clearly much better)to be gambling on giving up potential future, young, decent, starting pitching, for a backup, rental player. But that's DD for you.
So, hopefully Sox don't give up Ward, unless it's for a better pitcher than Wheeler, if it's gonna be a rental player.
Dalbec and Darwinson Hernandez might become good, or better, MLB players, but both will have to overcome serious performance issues first, and both have not so far this year, despite both knowing they would definitely be called up if they did make progress.
Both Hernandez and Dalbec could be at the peak of their value right now, and how long will that value level hold-up for if they don't show improvement in the area that's holding them back, before the end of the season?
Ward, like Anderson, also has an intriguing, solid-average, to better three, maybe even four pitch arsenal. However Ward has had much, much better results than Anderson did, at the same level in the system, while also being incredibly consistent.
|
|
|
Post by sparkygian on Jul 10, 2019 0:50:43 GMT -5
Correction: Dalbec has clearly lowered his strikeout rate by a fair amount, but strikeouts are still an issue, considering his hit tool is subpar.
Darwinzon's control issue seem to be as bad as ever, imo, and can't see him suitable for starting, or relieving (unless mop-up duty). Also his delivery seems way too stiff, and arm-heavy, to hold-up enough to be a starting pitcher anyways, imo.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Jul 10, 2019 0:59:53 GMT -5
I think the trade value of Dalbec and Hernandez already has declined. Dalbec is not hitting well and not hitting HRs like he has previously. Hernandez surprises people when he gets through an inning without walking the park. Major improvement has to occur with both of these players for them to have major trade value.
I am somewhat relieved by their present troubles because I want them to develop with the Sox. I think both can be really good eventually and I would hate to see either traded for a rental.
|
|
|
Post by kevfc89 on Jul 10, 2019 1:58:17 GMT -5
im so confused about the takes that Dalbec is not doing well. For gosh sake he has a 148 wRC+ in AA while on pace for about 40 homers in a 162 game season, without the juiced ball. His batting average is low (who cares), but that's as much to do with a significantly lower babip than he's ever had at any level than it does his strikeouts, which he's also cut a good deal from last year while raising his BB-rate.
Idk what else he could or should be doing to show he's improving and playing well? It's no guarantee that everything is going to work out for him, but it's encouraging.
|
|
|
Post by hammerhead on Jul 10, 2019 3:16:07 GMT -5
I think the trade value of Dalbec and Hernandez already has declined. Dalbec is not hitting well and not hitting HRs like he has previously. Hernandez surprises people when he gets through an inning without walking the park. Major improvement has to occur with both of these players for them to have major trade value. I am somewhat relieved by their present troubles because I want them to develop with the Sox. I think both can be really good eventually and I would hate to see either traded for a rental. Yeah, I'm not sure what you mean with the first part of your post... Dalbec seems like he's come out of a slight slump lately and unless I'm confused, he's still hitting with power. I think he just went deep on the 4th. And Darwinzon (although it's a SSS) has been pretty much perfect since moving to the pen. I'd hate to trade either for a rental, but I think Hernandez would be harder for me to part with, simply because he's a lefty that throws 98mph... Those guys aren't easy to come by and seem to always have value.
|
|
|
Post by sparkygian on Jul 10, 2019 3:20:35 GMT -5
im so confused about the takes that Dalbec is not doing well. For gosh sake he has a 148 wRC+ in AA while on pace for about 40 homers in a 162 game season, without the juiced ball. His batting average is low (who cares), but that's as much to do with a significantly lower babip than he's ever had at any level than it does his strikeouts, which he's also cut a good deal from last year while raising his BB-rate. Idk what else he could or should be doing to show he's improving and playing well? It's no guarantee that everything is going to work out for him, but it's encouraging. It absolutely is encouraging!! If he wasn't blocked by Devers, it would seem to be that he would be an untouchable, and hopefully he continues to get better. Unfortunately he is blocked by Devers, and even if Dalbec (or Devers) switched over to 1b, Chavis is already currently manning that position quite well for a rookie, especially after he had plummeted in ranking within the Sox farm system just two years ago. Unless Chavis takes over 2b to make room for Dalbec, that would only leave DH duties available if JDMartinez leaves. It doesn't seem that far-fetched for JDM to jump ship after the seaon, but using either Dalbec, or Devers at 1b, much less as a DH, would clearly, imo, be a waste of talent. Seems that both are very talented third baseman. My point is that I agree with you, and am only raising Dalbec's k-rate, and low hit-tool, because that would seem to make him a lesser talent than Devers. If Dalbec is traded, I hope Sox get something of unanimous value in return. Darwinzon just seems to be an enigma at this point in time, despite him knowing that he's desperately needed by the Red Sox, and seems all he has to do is decrease harness his stuff and he'd be playing with the Sox, and starting his resume to getting richer than he's ever imagined. He just doesn't seem to be able to harness his stuff.....yet! Hopefully he will, soon, cause he would solve a couple of big issues for the Sox right now.
|
|
|