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Post by hammerhead on Jul 10, 2019 5:24:01 GMT -5
im so confused about the takes that Dalbec is not doing well. For gosh sake he has a 148 wRC+ in AA while on pace for about 40 homers in a 162 game season, without the juiced ball. His batting average is low (who cares), but that's as much to do with a significantly lower babip than he's ever had at any level than it does his strikeouts, which he's also cut a good deal from last year while raising his BB-rate. Idk what else he could or should be doing to show he's improving and playing well? It's no guarantee that everything is going to work out for him, but it's encouraging. It absolutely is encouraging!! If he wasn't blocked by Devers, it would seem to be that he would be an untouchable, and hopefully he continues to get better. Unfortunately he is blocked by Devers, and even if Dalbec (or Devers) switched over to 1b, Chavis is already currently manning that position quite well for a rookie, especially after he had plummeted in ranking within the Sox farm system just two years ago. Unless Chavis takes over 2b to make room for Dalbec, that would only leave DH duties available if JDMartinez leaves. It doesn't seem that far-fetched for JDM to jump ship after the seaon, but using either Dalbec, or Devers at 1b, much less as a DH, would clearly, imo, be a waste of talent. Seems that both are very talented third baseman. My point is that I agree with you, and am only raising Dalbec's k-rate, and low hit-tool, because that would seem to make him a lesser talent than Devers. If Dalbec is traded, I hope Sox get something of unanimous value in return. Darwinzon just seems to be an enigma at this point in time, despite him knowing that he's desperately needed by the Red Sox, and seems all he has to do is decrease harness his stuff and he'd be playing with the Sox, and starting his resume to getting richer than he's ever imagined. He just doesn't seem to be able to harness his stuff.....yet! Hopefully he will, soon, cause he would solve a couple of big issues for the Sox right now. Not trying to cherry pick your post, but I'm not sure that Darwinzon knowing he could be of use in Boston has any baring on him either way. His problem isn't lack of motivation or will to succeed. His problems are mechanical (command and control)and the fact that he's still only 22 and lefties tend to mature a bit later. |
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Post by sparkygian on Jul 10, 2019 6:56:53 GMT -5
Definitely can't imagine that motivation is a problem for Hernandez. I didn't mean to imply that. Was trying to say that I'm imagining he's motivated as hell, but just can't harness his stuff. Definitely he's come a long way from where he was a couple of years ago. He's still plenty young enough. Hopefully he'll overcome this last hurdle while he's with the Sox cause he's definitely got elite stuff. But if he can't overcome his wildness, like Mata did this year, then his value has probably peaked
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 10, 2019 8:00:11 GMT -5
Yes, the Red Sox could definitely use an upgrade on the starting staff.
But the more I think about it the more I loathe the idea of giving up Dalbec or even Hernandez in a potential deal for Wheeler.
The Red Sox, if they go to the post-season beyond the Wild Card game, have a rotation of Sale/Price/Porcello/E-Rod. They don't need a fifth starter.
So how much of an upgrade is Wheeler to starting either Porcello or E-Rod? Not enough to warrant giving up Dalbec or Hernandez.
Obviously the value would be the upgrade of Wheeler to Johnson/Velazquez/etc. in the #5 spot in the rotation so the Sox can even make the playoffs and get into that one game Wild Card playoff.
The odds of the move having a huge impact on the Red Sox season and post-season is kind of small when you look at trading away either of Dalbec or Hernandez.
Perhaps it will take a Houck, a Chatham, and an A ball pitcher with a great arm to get Wheeler. I'm not a fan of losing Houck either, but perhaps that's a more palatable deal? Perhaps that's not better than what other teams can give.
If it isn't then shoot lower for a starting pitcher. Maybe a Tanner Roarke if Cincy is willing to deal him (they might not be given that everybody is in the division race in the NLC.)
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 10, 2019 10:03:28 GMT -5
I would think that Wheeler would a significant upgrade over 20 million dollar Porcello. A rotation of Sale, Price Wheeler and E-Rod would be more formidable in the playoffs....and perhaps he could replace Porcello next year.
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Jul 10, 2019 10:11:38 GMT -5
I think we need to look at every rumor and when considering the supposed price, add at least a 25 percent overpay because the Sox are so close to the salary threshold that you'll need to pay a premium to include a salary dump as part of the deal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 10, 2019 10:15:17 GMT -5
I would think that Wheeler would a significant upgrade over 20 million dollar Porcello. A rotation of Sale, Price Wheeler and E-Rod would be more formidable in the playoffs....and perhaps he could replace Porcello next year. Wheeler > Porcello. I can agree with that. If the price to get Wheeler becomes Dalbec plus or even Dalbec alone is Wheeler > Porcello plus the next six years of Dalbec? I get that sometimes circumstances dictate that you don't necessarily try to "win" the trade, but rather simply get what you need because that's the piece that's a difference maker. I'm just not sure that Wheeler is that. I can buy Wheeler being a potential difference maker as to making the playoff game vs not making the playoff game. If it was 1st place they were battling for, I can really see that, but with the Wild Card you could do all that and lose in the Wild Card game and the post-season is rendered meaningless as far as the deal goes. Or if they win the Wild Card game, then the improvement is Wheeler over Porcello or E-Rod I suppose, which I don't think is a big thing. I guess the one benefit is that it makes a reliever of one of Porcello or E-Rod? I guess it really does all come down to potential cost. As far as Wheeler for next season, I could be wrong, but I'm thinking that the Sox won't be looking to add $10 - $15 million/year type players next season as they're saving their big $ for Mookie? I'm thinking that the Sox are trying to get their payroll down toward the 200 - 220 million range instead of bumping up near the highest threshold? I would think that the guy who replaces Porcello will be a young guy obtained in a deal (that's where Dalbec makes sense in a deal)? |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 10, 2019 13:22:47 GMT -5
I would love a bold move like this if they are giving up significant assets. with Baird in the Met F.O., gives Sox at least a chance of a fair look because of his familiarity with the system:
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Post by kingstephanos on Jul 10, 2019 13:47:07 GMT -5
I would think that Wheeler would a significant upgrade over 20 million dollar Porcello. A rotation of Sale, Price Wheeler and E-Rod would be more formidable in the playoffs....and perhaps he could replace Porcello next year. Wheeler > Porcello. I can agree with that. If the price to get Wheeler becomes Dalbec plus or even Dalbec alone is Wheeler > Porcello plus the next six years of Dalbec? I get that sometimes circumstances dictate that you don't necessarily try to "win" the trade, but rather simply get what you need because that's the piece that's a difference maker. I'm just not sure that Wheeler is that. I can buy Wheeler being a potential difference maker as to making the playoff game vs not making the playoff game. If it was 1st place they were battling for, I can really see that, but with the Wild Card you could do all that and lose in the Wild Card game and the post-season is rendered meaningless as far as the deal goes. Or if they win the Wild Card game, then the improvement is Wheeler over Porcello or E-Rod I suppose, which I don't think is a big thing. I guess the one benefit is that it makes a reliever of one of Porcello or E-Rod? I guess it really does all come down to potential cost. As far as Wheeler for next season, I could be wrong, but I'm thinking that the Sox won't be looking to add $10 - $15 million/year type players next season as they're saving their big $ for Mookie? I'm thinking that the Sox are trying to get their payroll down toward the 200 - 220 million range instead of bumping up near the highest threshold? I would think that the guy who replaces Porcello will be a young guy obtained in a deal (that's where Dalbec makes sense in a deal)? I'm curious, do you believe the Front Office has all of their eggs in the "must sign Mookie Betts" basket? (i.e. they're saving all of their money for Betts) I ask because, while he's definitely a great player, I'm not always sure signing players to max $$ is always the best avenue - especially when said player is quoted as "expect[ing] to become a free agent". Being a fan of a player is great, however the bidding for his services could get out of hand in a hurry. We'll definitely see if that's the best strategy. |
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Post by hammerhead on Jul 10, 2019 14:16:35 GMT -5
I would love a bold move like this if they are giving up significant assets. with Baird in the Met F.O., gives Sox at least a chance of a fair look because of his familiarity with the system: The sox don't have the prospects to get Thor, and they especially can't compete with the Padres (who have a stellar system) in a bidding war. |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 10, 2019 15:56:40 GMT -5
I would love a bold move like this if they are giving up significant assets. with Baird in the Met F.O., gives Sox at least a chance of a fair look because of his familiarity with the system: The sox don't have the prospects to get Thor, and they especially can't compete with the Padres (who have a stellar system) in a bidding war. Normally I would agree but 1) Baird's presence offers a deep awareness of the Sox' farm and (perhaps) a deeper appreciation of their talents. I'm not saying it would be easy or low-cost, but there's something to be said for comfort levels when humans make decisions in general, and something as subjective as talent evaluations, specifically. And 2) It's the Mets. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 10, 2019 16:54:36 GMT -5
Wheeler > Porcello. I can agree with that. If the price to get Wheeler becomes Dalbec plus or even Dalbec alone is Wheeler > Porcello plus the next six years of Dalbec? I get that sometimes circumstances dictate that you don't necessarily try to "win" the trade, but rather simply get what you need because that's the piece that's a difference maker. I'm just not sure that Wheeler is that. I can buy Wheeler being a potential difference maker as to making the playoff game vs not making the playoff game. If it was 1st place they were battling for, I can really see that, but with the Wild Card you could do all that and lose in the Wild Card game and the post-season is rendered meaningless as far as the deal goes. Or if they win the Wild Card game, then the improvement is Wheeler over Porcello or E-Rod I suppose, which I don't think is a big thing. I guess the one benefit is that it makes a reliever of one of Porcello or E-Rod? I guess it really does all come down to potential cost. As far as Wheeler for next season, I could be wrong, but I'm thinking that the Sox won't be looking to add $10 - $15 million/year type players next season as they're saving their big $ for Mookie? I'm thinking that the Sox are trying to get their payroll down toward the 200 - 220 million range instead of bumping up near the highest threshold? I would think that the guy who replaces Porcello will be a young guy obtained in a deal (that's where Dalbec makes sense in a deal)? I'm curious, do you believe the Front Office has all of their eggs in the "must sign Mookie Betts" basket? (i.e. they're saving all of their money for Betts) I ask because, while he's definitely a great player, I'm not always sure signing players to max $$ is always the best avenue - especially when said player is quoted as "expect[ing] to become a free agent". Being a fan of a player is great, however the bidding for his services could get out of hand in a hurry. We'll definitely see if that's the best strategy. I do think the Red Sox will set big money aside to sign Mookie and if that fails, then spend it. I don't think they're going to commit themselves elsewhere first to the point they wouldn't have money left in the budget to have a legit shot at bringing back Mookie. The Red Sox have been prioritizing their players. Sale was a huge priority. Xander was a big one. Kimbrel was not because Eovaldi's future value to the team was considered a bigger priority and Porcello isn't one. I suspect Mookie will be and JDM could be a casualty of having to set the money aside. I don't really see the Sox spending money until they get clarity with Mookie. This isn't me talking as a Mookie fan. This is me watching what Dombrowski has been doing and trying to figure it out from there. Ultimately you could be right. Mookie wants Trout money and the Sox don't want to commit to that amount or maybe it's the years. If that's the case, yes they'll spend that money elsewhere, but not until then. |
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Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2019 17:54:04 GMT -5
I think the trade value of Dalbec and Hernandez already has declined. Dalbec is not hitting well and not hitting HRs like he has previously. Hernandez surprises people when he gets through an inning without walking the park. Major improvement has to occur with both of these players for them to have major trade value. I am somewhat relieved by their present troubles because I want them to develop with the Sox. I think both can be really good eventually and I would hate to see either traded for a rental. Yeah, I'm not sure what you mean with the first part of your post... Dalbec seems like he's come out of a slight slump lately and unless I'm confused, he's still hitting with power. I think he just went deep on the 4th. And Darwinzon (although it's a SSS) has been pretty much perfect since moving to the pen. I'd hate to trade either for a rental, but I think Hernandez would be harder for me to part with, simply because he's a lefty that throws 98mph... Those guys aren't easy to come by and seem to always have value. Not to mention the spin and movement on both 4FB and CB/SL are elite. He’s still very new to baseball, and while it’s possible that means he never really develops innate consistency, he could very well learn to drive more, whip the arm less, and find a stable release/mechanics. I still have hopes for him as a SP, but I think he could very soon be a terrific reliever. His stuff, in all aspects, borders on otherworldly, especially in short stints. Dalbec might always be a .230 guy, but he HAS cut the whiff rate successfully after a historically difficult leap (A-AA), and has only two full years focused solely on hitting. His defense and outstanding isoD/isoP mean he could be quite valuable even as a 40 hitter. |
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Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2019 17:58:49 GMT -5
Yes, the Red Sox could definitely use an upgrade on the starting staff. But the more I think about it the more I loathe the idea of giving up Dalbec or even Hernandez in a potential deal for Wheeler. The Red Sox, if they go to the post-season beyond the Wild Card game, have a rotation of Sale/Price/Porcello/E-Rod. They don't need a fifth starter. So how much of an upgrade is Wheeler to starting either Porcello or E-Rod? Not enough to warrant giving up Dalbec or Hernandez. Obviously the value would be the upgrade of Wheeler to Johnson/Velazquez/etc. in the #5 spot in the rotation so the Sox can even make the playoffs and get into that one game Wild Card playoff. The odds of the move having a huge impact on the Red Sox season and post-season is kind of small when you look at trading away either of Dalbec or Hernandez. Perhaps it will take a Houck, a Chatham, and an A ball pitcher with a great arm to get Wheeler. I'm not a fan of losing Houck either, but perhaps that's a more palatable deal? Perhaps that's not better than what other teams can give. If it isn't then shoot lower for a starting pitcher. Maybe a Tanner Roarke if Cincy is willing to deal him (they might not be given that everybody is in the division race in the NLC.) I wouldn’t hate them kicking the tires on Sonny Gray, now that his value/return isn’t inflated by Oakland’s huge park and him looking like a 1a and not the 2a/hi-3 he fits better as in a contender. I’d be concerned about Gray going back to his house of horrors, but the Sox could avoid that with some rotation tinkering if it comes down to it. He’s still young, too, and pitching quite well in a pretty extreme hitter’s park |
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Post by Gwell55 on Jul 10, 2019 18:03:27 GMT -5
I'm curious, do you believe the Front Office has all of their eggs in the "must sign Mookie Betts" basket? (i.e. they're saving all of their money for Betts) I ask because, while he's definitely a great player, I'm not always sure signing players to max $$ is always the best avenue - especially when said player is quoted as "expect[ing] to become a free agent". Being a fan of a player is great, however the bidding for his services could get out of hand in a hurry. We'll definitely see if that's the best strategy. I do think the Red Sox will set big money aside to sign Mookie and if that fails, then spend it. I don't think they're going to commit themselves elsewhere first to the point they wouldn't have money left in the budget to have a legit shot at bringing back Mookie. The Red Sox have been prioritizing their players. Sale was a huge priority. Xander was a big one. Kimbrel was not because Eovaldi's future value to the team was considered a bigger priority and Porcello isn't one. I suspect Mookie will be and JDM could be a casualty of having to set the money aside. I don't really see the Sox spending money until they get clarity with Mookie. This isn't me talking as a Mookie fan. This is me watching what Dombrowski has been doing and trying to figure it out from there. Ultimately you could be right. Mookie wants Trout money and the Sox don't want to commit to that amount or maybe it's the years. If that's the case, yes they'll spend that money elsewhere, but not until then. Mookie wanting Trout Money might not pay out if he doesn't get to playing at least close to last years level. I keep looking at Baseball Reference and comparing Mookies stats to Trouts... He seems quite a ways behind Trout's standard yearly stats. If Mookie doesn't start picking up he might be looking at Bogie Plus money. A market adjustment is happening seems to me last two off-seasons so Mookie might get caught up in that if he isn't careful. |
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Post by jbsox on Jul 10, 2019 18:08:41 GMT -5
First time poster here. Love reading your insight. Do you think it would require similar value to what we gave up for Eovaldi? Jalen Beeks pitched very well for the Pawtucket Red Sox last year and has continued to do so at the MLB level, but I don’t think anyone thought of him as a top prospect. Maybe this years Jalen Beeks is someone like Thad Ward? Yeah, that’s a good question and probably a spot-on suggestion. TB imo has been sorta exploiting a market inefficiency by acquiring pitchers who are flawed but also have significant value *if used properly.* Sort of a Belicheckian approach...tailor the role to the player, instead of vice versa. One guy who is a good example is Glasnow (who they bought low on and who’s since blossomed), who was viewed as a great stuff/weak command pitcher who couldn’t likely go 6-7 (due to inefficiency) but seemed capable of very good 3-5 inning stretches. And Beeks was generally viewed as a tweener/swingman/5 with possible 4 upside who had multiple avg to solid-avg pitches, and average command, but couldn’t likely go 6-7 due to 3rd-time-through-order penalty (a product of middling stuff). TB was experimenting with the “opener”/“bulk inning” mix, and acquired those guys because they could plug them in for several innings without taxing their limits, setting them up for success (and apparently, confidence and continued development). So Beeks had particular value to TB that he didn’t to teams using a conventional approach. He was also MLB-ready and showed flashes of being something more (the CU became his swing-and-miss pitch in late AA I think, and then moreso in AAA). His MLB-readiness added some value. Ward isn’t as close, so he’s got a little less value on that front, but he’s also shown significant development and looks like he might fit that 4/5/swingman role as well. Due to age he’s probably a fair bit more projectable than Beeks, or at least has a slightly higher ceiling (but lower floor). So yeah, I think you might be right in that he’s probably overall similar in value, maybe slightly less due to the higher risk/not being able to jump in right away. But I could see him in a deal (I’d prefer not, but for Wheeler, especially if he’d sign a reasonable extension, I’d probably do it). Good call; I expect they’d have to include another low-level guy and/or someone like Shawaryn, but it’s a good thought. Ward sorta reminds me of Shaun Anderson, who the Sox traded with Greg Santos for Eduardo Nunez. Ward’s performed significantly better and I think has a little better stuff now, and more upside and thus might have a little more value; Wheeler likewise is going to command more than Nunez. We’ll see, because NY is in on kicking the tires too. As a deadline “need” deal, I suspect it’ll hurt regardless. Thanks for the feedback! A deal like this allows us to keep pitchers we hold in higher regard. Say if Wheeler did sign an extension that is reasonable (or find a cheap 5th starter in the offseason) our starting rotation should be stable for a while in theory with Sale signed for another 5 years, Price and Eovaldi a few more years, ERod possibly signing an extension, and Wheeler. Mata, Groome, Song we still have as potential very solid future starters down the road, and Houck Feltman, Darwinzon as future bullpen help along with other surprises along the way. Add in someone like Shawaryn and Chatham and I would be fine with a deal like this. |
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 10, 2019 19:49:33 GMT -5
Anybody think Houck becoming a reliever and Chatham moving to 2nd base affects the likely hood of them getting traded one way or another?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2019 19:58:20 GMT -5
Anybody think Houck becoming a reliever and Chatham moving to 2nd base affects the likely hood of them getting traded one way or another? Not really. Also Chatham didn't move to second. He is getting time at other positions, which makes perfect sense. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 10, 2019 20:00:46 GMT -5
The sox don't have the prospects to get Thor, and they especially can't compete with the Padres (who have a stellar system) in a bidding war. Normally I would agree but 1) Baird's presence offers a deep awareness of the Sox' farm and (perhaps) a deeper appreciation of their talents. I'm not saying it would be easy or low-cost, but there's something to be said for comfort levels when humans make decisions in general, and something as subjective as talent evaluations, specifically. And 2) It's the Mets. You make the assumption that familiarity with the system means Baird will think more highly of a lot of the prospects but it could very, very easily go the other way and mean he knows a greater extent of their flaws. Maybe it helps, but the odds of it hurting are equal because you're just guessing, so I'm going to take the farm system at face value unless we learn something definitive on how Baird views the system, in which case we don't stand a chance against the Padres. |
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 11, 2019 15:43:53 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Jul 11, 2019 15:54:11 GMT -5
Bah - the vast majority of their minor leaguers will never make it to MLB. They are assets, and some may be very useful.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 11, 2019 16:15:05 GMT -5
Bah - the vast majority of their minor leaguers will never make it to MLB. They are assets, and some may be very useful. Well here goes the "But almost the entire lineup is made up of former prospects" argument. |
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jul 11, 2019 16:19:59 GMT -5
Nothing to do with the subject of this thread but man reading Alex Speier is like watching JBJ playing CF: It's a gift that this fan base has been blessed with.
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 19, 2019 10:06:15 GMT -5
Given our well-known payroll and prospect limitations, this seems like a nothing rumor, but nonetheless...
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 19, 2019 10:10:24 GMT -5
Ok so we got some new trade rumors. Looks like DD is not done. Guys and Gals keep calm, because the names in this tweet are probably NOT going to happen @jonmorosi #RedSox had a high-level scout watching the Madison Bumgarner-Noah Syndergaard matchup in San Francisco last night. It is possible that #SFGiants relievers were the primary focus of that assignment. @mlb Will Smith Tony Watson Mark Melancon @philgrogers Dave Dombrowski has long admired Jose Abreu. The redsox are among a few teams monitoring Abreu’s availability. He might be most impactful bat on the market if @whitesox we’re willing to deal him. Could trade him and re-sign him but value as a rental is limited. |
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Post by borisman on Jul 19, 2019 10:57:03 GMT -5
I know he has good stuff but Melancon has already failed twice here. I mean REALLY failed. Would fit right in with this crew.
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