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Mid-Season Acquistion Time
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Post by Guidas on Jun 28, 2019 8:15:32 GMT -5
Yeah, the Indians would be crazy to sell anyone while being in the WC spot. But the Red Sox would be crazy if they didn't sell everyone they could even if they had the same record. I would agree on seller mode. Bradley, Holt and Porcello would be my first choices to sell. Cut some payroll and build the farm up a bit. Why? The Red Sox are a high revenue team with good ownership. Their goal every year is to win the World Series. If you can do that by trading prospects, you do it. This is not 2012. Hell, if you told me today that a trade of Dalbec and Mata gets you THE GUY that gets the team through the Wild Card and to the World Series again I'd do it in a heartbeat.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 28, 2019 8:16:03 GMT -5
I'd like to hear who everybody thinks the Red Sox top 3 trade prospects are. Chavis Casas Duran Dalbec Mata Feltman At least if I'm an opposing GM that's where I'm starting.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 28, 2019 8:17:57 GMT -5
I want to propose something like Shawaryn's Law: I wouldn't trade for any reliever who wouldn't clearly be better than Shawaryn right now, but I also wouldn't trade any prospect as good as Shawaryn or better to get them. You're not trying to win in that case. Your just calling stalemate if you admit defeat on the prospect of the bullpen not getting better by adding a elite reliever. You can't win if you're not afraid to lose, would be how the saying goes for me. Agree. You gotta give to get.
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Post by beavertontim on Jun 28, 2019 9:21:33 GMT -5
I would agree on seller mode. Bradley, Holt and Porcello would be my first choices to sell. Cut some payroll and build the farm up a bit. Why? The Red Sox are a high revenue team with good ownership. Their goal every year is to win the World Series. If you can do that by trading prospects, you do it. This is not 2012. Hell, if you told me today that a trade of Dalbec and Mata gets you THE GUY that gets the team through the Wild Card and to the World Series again I'd do it in a heartbeat. I would make the trade you propose as well, however I don't think this team is an average player at the right position from going far in the playoffs. In that scenario I start preparing myself for 2020. Trade away some short term contracts that I likely won't/can't resign to teams that think they can make a deep push, save a few bucks this year, and pick up some controllable salaries for the next couple years on a few guys that are either close, or have a bunch of options left. his team really needs to build the farm a bit so they will have the flexibility to sign stars from other teams or resign its own stars in the near future.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 28, 2019 9:54:52 GMT -5
There's always a question of how much a move is gonna help the team. The thing is, in all likelihood the Red Sox are not going to go from a wild card to a division winner by getting an elite bullpen arm. And while it could help get the wild card all that does is get you into the coin-flip playoff game. And I also think last year is a pretty good precedent to show that they don't need elite bullpen arms to make a run in the playoffs. (Kimbrel sucked; Eovaldi, Price, and Sale were among their best "relievers.") So that's all just to say the gains from any such trade woulld be minimal. Meanwhile, the farm system is still at low ebb and just starting to get better. I hate the lack of depth on this 2019 team and that's a product, in part, of not having more prospects you could, say, put into bullpen roles. Guys like Ty Buttrey say. I'm keen to not trade the next Ty Buttrey. Anyway, it's June and you've already stated about a thousand times that you want to add an elite bullpen arm. (Much as you did last season, IIRC.) So you tell me - what price would you pay for a Yates or a Giles or whatever? And remember that we have about 1 prospect toward the back of the top 100 and think about what another team would want with that in mind. Last year was only one example of one team making a run. The Indians made it to the world series with a elite bullpen. The Royals were built off of a elite bullpen. The Cubs had one of the best closing acquisitions in MLB history with Chapman. The Orioles made a run to the championship series built on a elite bullpen. Last year also taught us that having little depth can cost you a world series. Do you remember the Dodgers running out Ryan Madson because they had no one else to go to? Well that could be your 2019 Red Sox playoffs right there. They could literally be running out Ryan Brasier in tight ballgames because the Sox have no one else to go to, unless you make a move. There's only 2 or 3 untouchables in this system for me. Groome, Casas, and Flores. I would find multiple packages including 2 top ten prospects in this system for a Diaz besides those 3 untouchables. Like I'd try and stay away from Darwinzon in a trade with Giles because of the lack of team control, but Duran? Dalbec? Mata? Feltman? Houck? Sure package two of them and beat someone else's trade package to get someone elite. Chances are, none of these prospects will be elite ever. There's been 4 or 5 prospects that you can even look back on and say that the other team got good value for. Moncada, Buttrey, Logan Allen, Kopech. Like Dombrowski traded a million of them and that's the only ones we are left talking about. None of these prospects are missed by me. Go buy them in free agency in 5 years if the Sox miss them so much (they don't miss them that much). You know what would be a bigger travesty than depleting a already non existent farm system? Not maxing out Mookie Betts, Devers, Xander's, JDM (for as long as you have him), Price, and Sales' primes. Like you're sitting here with an obvious weakness and blowing more games than any other team in baseball. ***LIKE THIS MOVE WILL OBVIOUSLY MAKE THE SOX BETTER WINS AND LOSS WISE, WHY IS THIS A QUESTION?!!!*** Every single division leader in the American League has a better bullpen than the Boston Red Sox. You're worried about a farm system when you can try to fix your biggest bullpen problem while Xander Bogaerts is playing like the 2nd best player in the American League. Yeah, that's not smart at all. After this 3-4 year window when Sale, Xander, Mookie, and Price are finishing up their careers in Boston or are close to done in their careers, you're talking about blowing up the team anyways and starting over. Keep playing to win when you have some of the best pieces in baseball. It's a game to me. I'm not sentimental about any prospect, never will be. I'll never look back at the Buttrey and Logan Allen deals and say they lost. You're asking the wrong guy who you would trade. I would trade virtually anyone (besides my untouchables) to get Xander another ring for example and make that ring number 3 on his hand. That's the prospect I'm sentimental towards. The guy that's already helped you win multiple times. You make it sound like there's this strict dichotomy between an elite bullpen and a lousy one. But adding an "elite arm" is just adding one guy. Giles has been worth 1.4 WAR in half a season and projects for 0.6-1.0 WAR for the remainder, according to fangraphs. Presumably he'd take innings away from guys like Hembree (who projects for 0-0.3 WAR) and Brasier (0.2-0.3). You're basically looking at adding half a win over the remainder of the season. And look. That's not nothing. I'm not saying it's never a good idea to improve a team's bullpen by mid-season trade. It's just that the Red Sox bullpen is already decent; they're very unlikely to be able to win the division, which is a much bigger payoff than getting a wildcard; and the farm system is in bad shape and I'm not keen on seeing it wither away further. The argument that we need to go all out while the young core is present seems to put things almost backwards to me. For instance, you have no qualms about trading Duran, but he's not a bad bet to fill in for JBJ if and when JBJ leaves. Darwinzon or Houck or Feltman could themselves become key bullpen pieces within a year or two. Keeping those guys is about having the depth precisely so that we can still be competitive while Xander and Sale and even Mookie and JDM (speaking just of 2020) are still around. In poker it can be a perfectly reasonable bid to call - everything doesn't have to be all-in or fold. In the Red Sox' position that might well be their best bet.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 28, 2019 12:05:11 GMT -5
There's been 4 or 5 prospects that you can even look back on and say that the other team got good value for. Moncada, Buttrey, Logan Allen, Kopech. Like Dombrowski traded a million of them and that's the only ones we are left talking about. None of these prospects are missed by me. Go buy them in free agency in 5 years if the Sox miss them so much (they don't miss them that much). Our biggest needs right now are 5th starter and high-end reliever. We had them, but now they're playing on other teams because of previous short-sighted mid-season trades. Shaun Anderson - traded him for Nunez in 2017. Looked like a good trade at the time, but now there's some severe buyer's remorse. Anderson is killing it and now the Sox are looking to sell the farm for a guy just like him. Ty Buttrey - traded him for Ian Kinsler and a cup of coffee in 2018. I'm told the coffee was good. Buttrey is killing it and now the Sox are looking to sell the farm for a guy just like him. I see a pattern developing. I think it was Terry Francona who used to say "If I ran the team like a fan I'd be fired." This is the GM role, but same idea applies. Those are guys who would help, but ultimately aren't impact players. To Pedro's earlier point, go out and find Mookie Betts, go find Rafael Devers, go find the next Xander Bogaerts, (can't believe I'm writing this) go find the next Christian Vazquez. Dombrowski has done a very, very good job of identifying which prospects were expendable via trade (obviously missed a few), but to sell out the farm entirely, all the time, well, you'd have also lost those players at some point as well.
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Post by hammerhead on Jun 28, 2019 13:54:56 GMT -5
So redsox04071318 wants Giles - might happen
Pedrofan wants Diaz - won't happen, the Mets just traded two of their top prospects and took on Cano's salary for him. They're not going to have their fans laughing at them more than they already do. Plus they'd probably insist we take Cano.
Cdj wants Will Smith, he'd be great, but to get him you'd probably need to give them Casas and Mata. I want a reliever, but that's steep. Plus Smith made that "After Earth" movie and insisted his son be in it... That's unforgivable.
Me, I'd go for someone off the radar... I'd call the Angels and trade them Chatham and Brian Johnson, and if they want more add one of the Lowell catchers. Or Amir Garrett, see what it'll take to get him.
If you're going to part with prospects, might as well get some service time back
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Post by incandenza on Jun 28, 2019 14:11:44 GMT -5
Those are guys who would help, but ultimately aren't impact players. To Pedro's earlier point, go out and find Mookie Betts, go find Rafael Devers, go find the next Xander Bogaerts, (can't believe I'm writing this) go find the next Christian Vazquez. Dombrowski has done a very, very good job of identifying which prospects were expendable via trade (obviously missed a few), but to sell out the farm entirely, all the time, well, you'd have also lost those players at some point as well. Agree that Anderson/Buttrey aren't Pedro/Papelbon, but how many more games do we win this season if both are on the team to start 2019? I'd put the over/under at 5. You have to do those kind of trades sometimes, but you can do it every year. In 2017 we won the division which is huge, due in no small part to Nunez, so I get that. 2018 was the winningest season in Red Sox history, so I get selling the farm and exceeding the tax threshold to see that through. 2019? This team probably doesn't win the division and probably wins a wild card spot - that's no matter what you do in terms of the trade deadline. Playoff runs have as much to do with health, hot streaks, and luck as it does talent, so I just don't see the point of robbing 2020/2021 of talent for the sake of this year. If DD can pull off another Pearce or Eovaldi trade then that's awesome, but the 3 prospects for a relief arm trades that are being kicked around are just terrible value deals and are likely to have no impact in terms of winning this year. Yeah and there's just no obvious big move to be made. We don't have a gaping weakness - we have a pretty good bullpen that could be better, and should be bolstered anyway with the (re-)additions of Wright as a reliever and Eovaldi as a starter. All our position players are fine; the best move to make there is we can probably gain about 1 WAR for the remainder of the season just by DFAing Nunez. Meanwhile, there's just not depth in the system for any big trade. I don't know if getting a top end reliever is feasible even with a package that includes Casas.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 28, 2019 14:11:50 GMT -5
One of the biggest places for improvement other than at getting Nunez out of the lineup permanently is to upgrade on Chavis for at least this season. I really am not very impressed with his long term outlook because he has real trouble hitting 90+ mph fastballs that are right down the middle of the plate or in the upper half of the zone. So I'd definitely be willing to trade him for his replacement along with a rental relief pitcher. This is what he's done since 5/21. And that's with a ridiculously unsustainable .390 BABIP. With a normal BABIP, this would be close to a Sandy Leon hitting line. He has been playing below replacement level for well more than a month now. I still think he should go back to AAA. If Chavis had started his major league career with this line instead of with the hot start, people would be so fed up with him that they'd complain about him as much as Nunez. But because of the hot start, people haven't noticed just how awful he has been for a long period of time. He does not deserve to be playing anywhere near as much as he has been. In fact, Nunez has actually been better in the same time period. Nunez' WAR has been climbing while Chavis' has been falling. I think it's more likely that Chavis gets demoted when Moreland and Pearce gets back than a Nunez DFA.
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Post by hammerhead on Jun 28, 2019 14:12:33 GMT -5
Would anyone take a flyer on Trevor Rosenthal on a minor league deal? I know he looks like toast and you couldn't depend on getting anything out of him, but it wasn't that long ago that Jr was good.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 28, 2019 14:31:12 GMT -5
Last year was only one example of one team making a run. The Indians made it to the world series with a elite bullpen. The Royals were built off of a elite bullpen. The Cubs had one of the best closing acquisitions in MLB history with Chapman. The Orioles made a run to the championship series built on a elite bullpen. Last year also taught us that having little depth can cost you a world series. Do you remember the Dodgers running out Ryan Madson because they had no one else to go to? Well that could be your 2019 Red Sox playoffs right there. They could literally be running out Ryan Brasier in tight ballgames because the Sox have no one else to go to, unless you make a move. There's only 2 or 3 untouchables in this system for me. Groome, Casas, and Flores. I would find multiple packages including 2 top ten prospects in this system for a Diaz besides those 3 untouchables. Like I'd try and stay away from Darwinzon in a trade with Giles because of the lack of team control, but Duran? Dalbec? Mata? Feltman? Houck? Sure package two of them and beat someone else's trade package to get someone elite. Chances are, none of these prospects will be elite ever. There's been 4 or 5 prospects that you can even look back on and say that the other team got good value for. Moncada, Buttrey, Logan Allen, Kopech. Like Dombrowski traded a million of them and that's the only ones we are left talking about. None of these prospects are missed by me. Go buy them in free agency in 5 years if the Sox miss them so much (they don't miss them that much). You know what would be a bigger travesty than depleting a already non existent farm system? Not maxing out Mookie Betts, Devers, Xander's, JDM (for as long as you have him), Price, and Sales' primes. Like you're sitting here with an obvious weakness and blowing more games than any other team in baseball. ***LIKE THIS MOVE WILL OBVIOUSLY MAKE THE SOX BETTER WINS AND LOSS WISE, WHY IS THIS A QUESTION?!!!*** Every single division leader in the American League has a better bullpen than the Boston Red Sox. You're worried about a farm system when you can try to fix your biggest bullpen problem while Xander Bogaerts is playing like the 2nd best player in the American League. Yeah, that's not smart at all. After this 3-4 year window when Sale, Xander, Mookie, and Price are finishing up their careers in Boston or are close to done in their careers, you're talking about blowing up the team anyways and starting over. Keep playing to win when you have some of the best pieces in baseball. It's a game to me. I'm not sentimental about any prospect, never will be. I'll never look back at the Buttrey and Logan Allen deals and say they lost. You're asking the wrong guy who you would trade. I would trade virtually anyone (besides my untouchables) to get Xander another ring for example and make that ring number 3 on his hand. That's the prospect I'm sentimental towards. The guy that's already helped you win multiple times. You make it sound like there's this strict dichotomy between an elite bullpen and a lousy one. But adding an "elite arm" is just adding one guy. Giles has been worth 1.4 WAR in half a season and projects for 0.6-1.0 WAR for the remainder, according to fangraphs. Presumably he'd take innings away from guys like Hembree (who projects for 0-0.3 WAR) and Brasier (0.2-0.3). You're basically looking at adding half a win over the remainder of the season. And look. That's not nothing. I'm not saying it's never a good idea to improve a team's bullpen by mid-season trade. It's just that the Red Sox bullpen is already decent; they're very unlikely to be able to win the division, which is a much bigger payoff than getting a wildcard; and the farm system is in bad shape and I'm not keen on seeing it wither away further. The argument that we need to go all out while the young core is present seems to put things almost backwards to me. For instance, you have no qualms about trading Duran, but he's not a bad bet to fill in for JBJ if and when JBJ leaves. Darwinzon or Houck or Feltman could themselves become key bullpen pieces within a year or two. Keeping those guys is about having the depth precisely so that we can still be competitive while Xander and Sale and even Mookie and JDM (speaking just of 2020) are still around. In poker it can be a perfectly reasonable bid to call - everything doesn't have to be all-in or fold. In the Red Sox' position that might well be their best bet. Like stop looking at WAR and making that argument if you want to win. Relievers WAR doesn't do it justice. Ken Giles is striking out over 15 batters per nine innings and waking less than 3. Like go ahead and find another reliever that does that. You won't come close to doing it. Duran could be the next replacement, or he could be the next Margot. Feltman, Darwinzon, or Houck could be bullpen arms, or they could flame out. You're the one taking all the risk by keeping them and betting on them. You'd be betting on them being good while Mookie, JDM, and Porcello are all gone. Right now there's only one top 100 prospect because everyone sees only one All-Star calibre player in the system right now. That's Casas.
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Post by soxjim on Jun 28, 2019 14:34:20 GMT -5
If the Red Sox are in the playoff hunt then they are not a seller. IMO only if they feel they can't make the 2nd wc should they sell. Last year we had the best team we have had over the past 50 years and there were many who said "we must add a bullpen piece." With all the winning there was a ton of complaining. So now we aren't winning near as much so we'll hear how DD is "about to get run of town" or "our ownership sucks" etc. As the poster jlebowski pointed out with TF's comment -"If I ran the team like a fan I'd be fired." - is too true.
With that said I might as well throw my hat into getting fired too. I had wanted Eovaldi and Pearce. Yikes!
This year I only want to pay a steep price in the pen if the closer is lockdown and we can have for more than 1 year. If there is a question on him such as Giles - there is no way I'd give up a top prospect. This team is lacking more than just a reliever so giving away top tier prospects for a questionable reliever won't make a difference.
This team was built on hitting and it's starting pitching. The SP has failed in terms of expectation. We were supposed to have leads of "5-2" more oftendinstead of 5-4 or coming from behind ealry at "5-1."
Chris Sale and ERod are nowhere near the expectation that we should have expected. Porcello has been subpar. Add to the fact that Eovaldi has given this team a big fat "zero." True that DD gave too much belief on Wright but to start the season the Sox had an expectation of eight starters. Only one has performed better and you can say six have been much worse and Porcello just a bit worse. When your team is built heavily on these guys and 4 of the 8 get hurt and two others give you much worse performance than the prior year -- other positions need to pick it up. The Sox bullpen "can't." They weren't supposed to and they aren't good enough. If you get this one reliever - if he isn't super - you still have the underperforming starters. Hearing someone for example say "I have confidence Sale and ERod will turn it around" is a hollow statement. It means nothing. Please don't gut the farm system further because of hollow beliefs. Cora said last year his MVP's were of the unheralded Johnson and Velazquez. Even Mike Trout has shown he needs help.
I guess what upsets me is that the freakin Yanks could give away very little and get Encarcion. Yet I'm concerned that we might give away top prospects who can be future unheralded stars like Johnson and Velazquez for an overrated 1 inning reliever that does little to move the bar and will only get mashed by the upper level teams anyways. I'm more int he camp of trading for a starter and putting him in the pen or he is a 4 starter who has a salary low enough to keep us under the threshold while expensive enough that a team is looking to dump salary like Seattle was with Encarcion. I just don't trust these type of "hyped" relievers and making moves based on "prayer and panic."
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 28, 2019 14:35:08 GMT -5
Agree that Anderson/Buttrey aren't Pedro/Papelbon, but how many more games do we win this season if both are on the team to start 2019? I'd put the over/under at 5. You have to do those kind of trades sometimes, but you can do it every year. In 2017 we won the division which is huge, due in no small part to Nunez, so I get that. 2018 was the winningest season in Red Sox history, so I get selling the farm and exceeding the tax threshold to see that through. 2019? This team probably doesn't win the division and probably wins a wild card spot - that's no matter what you do in terms of the trade deadline. Playoff runs have as much to do with health, hot streaks, and luck as it does talent, so I just don't see the point of robbing 2020/2021 of talent for the sake of this year. If DD can pull off another Pearce or Eovaldi trade then that's awesome, but the 3 prospects for a relief arm trades that are being kicked around are just terrible value deals and are likely to have no impact in terms of winning this year. Yeah and there's just no obvious big move to be made. We don't have a gaping weakness - we have a pretty good bullpen that could be better, and should be bolstered anyway with the (re-)additions of Wright as a reliever and Eovaldi as a starter. All our position players are fine; the best move to make there is we can probably gain about 1 WAR for the remainder of the season just by DFAing Nunez. Meanwhile, there's just not depth in the system for any big trade. I don't know if getting a top end reliever is feasible even with a package that includes Casas. You have blown more leads than any other team in baseball. If that's not a gaping need, then I don't know what is.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 28, 2019 14:36:37 GMT -5
There's been 4 or 5 prospects that you can even look back on and say that the other team got good value for. Moncada, Buttrey, Logan Allen, Kopech. Like Dombrowski traded a million of them and that's the only ones we are left talking about. None of these prospects are missed by me. Go buy them in free agency in 5 years if the Sox miss them so much (they don't miss them that much). Our biggest needs right now are 5th starter and high-end reliever. We had them, but now they're playing on other teams because of previous short-sighted mid-season trades. Shaun Anderson - traded him for Nunez in 2017. Looked like a good trade at the time, but now there's some severe buyer's remorse. Anderson is killing it and now the Sox are looking to sell the farm for a guy just like him. Ty Buttrey - traded him for Ian Kinsler and a cup of coffee in 2018. I'm told the coffee was good. Buttrey is killing it and now the Sox are looking to sell the farm for a guy just like him. I see a pattern developing. I think it was Terry Francona who used to say "If I ran the team like a fan I'd be fired." This is the GM role, but same idea applies. All I see is the pattern of winning.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 28, 2019 15:39:05 GMT -5
You're not trying to win in that case. Your just calling stalemate if you admit defeat on the prospect of the bullpen not getting better by adding a elite reliever. You can't win if you're not afraid to lose, would be how the saying goes for me. Agree. You gotta give to get. The Red Sox acquired Zeigler and Reed with prospects who would fit that criteria.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 28, 2019 15:46:36 GMT -5
There's been 4 or 5 prospects that you can even look back on and say that the other team got good value for. Moncada, Buttrey, Logan Allen, Kopech. Like Dombrowski traded a million of them and that's the only ones we are left talking about. None of these prospects are missed by me. Go buy them in free agency in 5 years if the Sox miss them so much (they don't miss them that much). Our biggest needs right now are 5th starter and high-end reliever. We had them, but now they're playing on other teams because of previous short-sighted mid-season trades. Shaun Anderson - traded him for Nunez in 2017. Looked like a good trade at the time, but now there's some severe buyer's remorse. Anderson is killing it and now the Sox are looking to sell the farm for a guy just like him. Ty Buttrey - traded him for Ian Kinsler and a cup of coffee in 2018. I'm told the coffee was good. Buttrey is killing it and now the Sox are looking to sell the farm for a guy just like him. I see a pattern developing. I think it was Terry Francona who used to say "If I ran the team like a fan I'd be fired." This is the GM role, but same idea applies. You're cherry picking. Dombrowski has an excellent trade record with the Red Sox. Not perfect, but to point out two trades and say it's a pattern when he's been astonishingly good on most (again, not all, but most) trades is nonsense. If you point was that it'd be nice to have those two players, I wouldn't disagree. But it's not a "pattern." And fwiw, if they didn't have Nunez or Kinsler, they'd have needed someone else to get those at-bats, which means a trade. And fwiw, I'm not sure Anderson is better than Johnson.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 28, 2019 15:49:03 GMT -5
You're not trying to win in that case. Your just calling stalemate if you admit defeat on the prospect of the bullpen not getting better by adding a elite reliever. You can't win if you're not afraid to lose, would be how the saying goes for me. There's always a question of how much a move is gonna help the team. The thing is, in all likelihood the Red Sox are not going to go from a wild card to a division winner by getting an elite bullpen arm. And while it could help get the wild card all that does is get you into the coin-flip playoff game. And I also think last year is a pretty good precedent to show that they don't need elite bullpen arms to make a run in the playoffs. (Kimbrel sucked; Eovaldi, Price, and Sale were among their best "relievers.") So that's all just to say the gains from any such trade woulld be minimal. Meanwhile, the farm system is still at low ebb and just starting to get better. I hate the lack of depth on this 2019 team and that's a product, in part, of not having more prospects you could, say, put into bullpen roles. Guys like Ty Buttrey say. I'm keen to not trade the next Ty Buttrey. Anyway, it's June and you've already stated about a thousand times that you want to add an elite bullpen arm. (Much as you did last season, IIRC.) So you tell me - what price would you pay for a Yates or a Giles or whatever? And remember that we have about 1 prospect toward the back of the top 100 and think about what another team would want with that in mind. This is the definitive question. I actually think this team is Mookie and JD locking in their swings, Eovaldi and Moreland coming back healthy and Feltman coming up as an additional arm, and one acquired impact arm from making a solid run in the second half and being the most dangerous team in the AL playoffs. So who would I give for that arm? Depends on the guy and years of control, but I think Dalbec, Darwinzon Hernandez, Houck and Mata are all potential trade bait. I don't think you can find a team that would want either Nuñez or Thornton, but they are both taking up space and should be let go. As an aside, it's a shame they can't bring up Castillo because he could contribute to this team.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 28, 2019 16:31:13 GMT -5
Those are guys who would help, but ultimately aren't impact players. To Pedro's earlier point, go out and find Mookie Betts, go find Rafael Devers, go find the next Xander Bogaerts, (can't believe I'm writing this) go find the next Christian Vazquez. Dombrowski has done a very, very good job of identifying which prospects were expendable via trade (obviously missed a few), but to sell out the farm entirely, all the time, well, you'd have also lost those players at some point as well. Agree that Anderson/Buttrey aren't Pedro/Papelbon, but how many more games do we win this season if both are on the team to start 2019? I'd put the over/under at 5. You have to do those kind of trades sometimes, but you can't do it every year. In 2017 we won the division which is huge, due in no small part to Nunez, so I get that. 2018 was the winningest season in Red Sox history, so I get selling the farm and exceeding the tax threshold to see that through. 2019? This team probably doesn't win the division and probably wins a wild card spot - that's no matter what you do in terms of the trade deadline. Playoff runs have as much to do with health, hot streaks, and luck as it does talent, so I just don't see the point of robbing 2020/2021 of talent for the sake of this year. If DD can pull off another Pearce or Eovaldi trade then that's awesome, but the 3 prospects for a relief arm trades that are being kicked around are just terrible value deals and are likely to have no impact in terms of winning this year. Yes, the Red Sox would be a better team with them. I never said they wouldn't be. I made the mistake of once calling a baseball show last year to talk about Buttrey as a bullpen option to help fix the pen and I got hung up on and laughed at as, "ughh don't give me these unknown, no-name guys. You really think Ty Buttrey or whomever in this barren system is going to help?" Hmm, well, seems so. My point was that, at the very least, they're not superstar studs. Never said they had no value or that Dombrowski didn't lose these deals, he did. On the surface, he has done a great job identifying who to part with and who to keep. The big names Margot, Espinoza (who I RAGED when traded), Kopech, Basabe haven't made any noise yet and a lot of those guys almost look like a lock to be a disappointment. Yoan has been awesome this year, but I think the verdict is still out on him and even if he's great, was still worth Chris Sale. I agree wholeheartedly, if you read my posts you'll see I'm certainly not one who believes in selling out for this year. I was just commenting on the fact that Dombrowski tends to win his trades. I was also bringing up the point that you can't just scrap players either and just continue melting the farm system. The guys I had mentioned are key contributors who came up from the farm. The value Xander, Devers, Vazquez, and Betts have given you arguably far outweigh the value you would have gotten for a return on a veteran. I strongly disagree that the Red Sox shouldn't worry about prospects. Sustainable runs at multiple divisional titles/rings are built from the farm.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 28, 2019 16:38:00 GMT -5
You make it sound like there's this strict dichotomy between an elite bullpen and a lousy one. But adding an "elite arm" is just adding one guy. Giles has been worth 1.4 WAR in half a season and projects for 0.6-1.0 WAR for the remainder, according to fangraphs. Presumably he'd take innings away from guys like Hembree (who projects for 0-0.3 WAR) and Brasier (0.2-0.3). You're basically looking at adding half a win over the remainder of the season. And look. That's not nothing. I'm not saying it's never a good idea to improve a team's bullpen by mid-season trade. It's just that the Red Sox bullpen is already decent; they're very unlikely to be able to win the division, which is a much bigger payoff than getting a wildcard; and the farm system is in bad shape and I'm not keen on seeing it wither away further. The argument that we need to go all out while the young core is present seems to put things almost backwards to me. For instance, you have no qualms about trading Duran, but he's not a bad bet to fill in for JBJ if and when JBJ leaves. Darwinzon or Houck or Feltman could themselves become key bullpen pieces within a year or two. Keeping those guys is about having the depth precisely so that we can still be competitive while Xander and Sale and even Mookie and JDM (speaking just of 2020) are still around. In poker it can be a perfectly reasonable bid to call - everything doesn't have to be all-in or fold. In the Red Sox' position that might well be their best bet. Like stop looking at WAR and making that argument if you want to win. Relievers WAR doesn't do it justice. Ken Giles is striking out over 15 batters per nine innings and waking less than 3. Like go ahead and find another reliever that does that. You won't come close to doing it. Duran could be the next replacement, or he could be the next Margot. Feltman, Darwinzon, or Houck could be bullpen arms, or they could flame out. You're the one taking all the risk by keeping them and betting on them. You'd be betting on them being good while Mookie, JDM, and Porcello are all gone.Right now there's only one top 100 prospect because everyone sees only one All-Star calibre player in the system right now. That's Casas. This is just... the opposite of what makes sense. The exact opposite. Yes, of course any prospect could flame out. That's exactly the logic behind keeping as many of them as possible - to hedge your bets. Which, again, is not always the right thing to do, but might be for this team in this year. (And also, again, I'm not against a minor trade.) Whereas what you want to do is trade away that diversity of risk and concentrate more risk in this season - which, again, does not seem like an especially worthwhile bet to begin with. And by the way, an elite bullpen arm is no sure bet either! Remember Eric Gagne? Or what if some team had acquired Kimbrel at the trading deadline last season how would that have worked out for them? Your last sentence in the bolded paragraph simply ignored what I said about 2020. But to add to the point: you've said that they can always just go out and get free agents, in which case, can't we expect them to still be good if/when Mookie, JDM, and Porcello are gone? Why so urgent about this particular wild card-bound season? As for WAR, yeah, I don't love it for pitchers in general, let alone relievers; I'm just using it as a quick and dirty estimate of how much value we could expect to get out of, say, 20 IP by Giles or someone like that. So you tell me - how much are those 20 innings worth? 3 wins? 5 wins? Maybe the 20 wins that Jonny Gomes' intangibles earned for his teams? And how much does it raise the odds that the Red Sox win the World Series?
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Jun 28, 2019 17:08:59 GMT -5
There's always a question of how much a move is gonna help the team. The thing is, in all likelihood the Red Sox are not going to go from a wild card to a division winner by getting an elite bullpen arm. And while it could help get the wild card all that does is get you into the coin-flip playoff game. And I also think last year is a pretty good precedent to show that they don't need elite bullpen arms to make a run in the playoffs. (Kimbrel sucked; Eovaldi, Price, and Sale were among their best "relievers.") So that's all just to say the gains from any such trade woulld be minimal. Meanwhile, the farm system is still at low ebb and just starting to get better. I hate the lack of depth on this 2019 team and that's a product, in part, of not having more prospects you could, say, put into bullpen roles. Guys like Ty Buttrey say. I'm keen to not trade the next Ty Buttrey. Anyway, it's June and you've already stated about a thousand times that you want to add an elite bullpen arm. (Much as you did last season, IIRC.) So you tell me - what price would you pay for a Yates or a Giles or whatever? And remember that we have about 1 prospect toward the back of the top 100 and think about what another team would want with that in mind. This is the definitive question. I actually think this team is Mookie and JD locking in their swings, Eovaldi and Moreland coming back healthy and Feltman coming up as an additional arm, and one acquired impact arm from making a solid run in the second half and being the most dangerous team in the AL playoffs. So who would I give for that arm? Depends on the guy and years of control, but I think Dalbec, Darwinzon Hernandez, Houck and Mata are all potential trade bait. I don't think you can find a team that would want either Nuñez or Thornton, but they are both taking up space and should be let go. As an aside, it's a shame they can't bring up Castillo because he could contribute to this team. but in reality, we are ten games behind the yankees. coming back to the win the division is becoming very unlikely, so being 'the most dangerous' team in the postseason actually involves first getting to and through a tossup wildcard game where even if you win you are weakened for the next series by using Sale. Of course they could still make a run at a WS if they get to a wildcard game, but it's a harder path with a lot more uncertainty and i think that has to be thrown into the calculations when weighing the prospect cost and value of any trade.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 28, 2019 17:15:02 GMT -5
That makes little sense to me. They have until 7/31 to upgrade the pen and I expect they will. What does 3 weeks ago have to do with anything? Even if he had gotten somebody 3 weeks ago, they'd still be well behind the Yankees. The division race is probably over but the Wild Card race has just begun . He's not going to let the Red Sox fail to make the playoffs because he didn't improve a problem area.He already has. Didn't know the season was over. October came early this season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 28, 2019 17:17:25 GMT -5
So redsox04071318 wants Giles - might happen Pedrofan wants Diaz - won't happen, the Mets just traded two of their top prospects and took on Cano's salary for him. They're not going to have their fans laughing at them more than they already do. Plus they'd probably insist we take Cano. Cdj wants Will Smith, he'd be great, but to get him you'd probably need to give them Casas and Mata. I want a reliever, but that's steep. Plus Smith made that "After Earth" movie and insisted his son be in it... That's unforgivable. Me, I'd go for someone off the radar... I'd call the Angels and trade them Chatham and Brian Johnson, and if they want more add one of the Lowell catchers. Or Amir Garrett, see what it'll take to get him. If you're going to part with prospects, might as well get some service time back I haven't advocated for anybody specific. I didn't mention wanting Giles or not wanting him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 28, 2019 17:25:43 GMT -5
Like stop looking at WAR and making that argument if you want to win. Relievers WAR doesn't do it justice. Ken Giles is striking out over 15 batters per nine innings and waking less than 3. Like go ahead and find another reliever that does that. You won't come close to doing it. Duran could be the next replacement, or he could be the next Margot. Feltman, Darwinzon, or Houck could be bullpen arms, or they could flame out. You're the one taking all the risk by keeping them and betting on them. You'd be betting on them being good while Mookie, JDM, and Porcello are all gone.Right now there's only one top 100 prospect because everyone sees only one All-Star calibre player in the system right now. That's Casas. This is just... the opposite of what makes sense. The exact opposite. Yes, of course any prospect could flame out. That's exactly the logic behind keeping as many of them as possible - to hedge your bets. Which, again, is not always the right thing to do, but might be for this team in this year. (And also, again, I'm not against a minor trade.) Whereas what you want to do is trade away that diversity of risk and concentrate more risk in this season - which, again, does not seem like an especially worthwhile bet to begin with. And by the way, an elite bullpen arm is no sure bet either! Remember Eric Gagne? Or what if some team had acquired Kimbrel at the trading deadline last season how would that have worked out for them? Your last sentence in the bolded paragraph simply ignored what I said about 2020. But to add to the point: you've said that they can always just go out and get free agents, in which case, can't we expect them to still be good if/when Mookie, JDM, and Porcello are gone? Why so urgent about this particular wild card-bound season? As for WAR, yeah, I don't love it for pitchers in general, let alone relievers; I'm just using it as a quick and dirty estimate of how much value we could expect to get out of, say, 20 IP by Giles or someone like that. So you tell me - how much are those 20 innings worth? 3 wins? 5 wins? Maybe the 20 wins that Jonny Gomes' intangibles earned for his teams? And how much does it raise the odds that the Red Sox win the World Series? 1)The prospects in this system is nothing to bank on. Like there might be 2 starting calibre players in this system right now. You don't have a good hand (in the system), therefore there's no good bet by hanging onto anyone of these guys besides maybe Groome, Flores, and Casas. 2)2020? You mean the year you'd have Giles, Mookie, and JBJ on their last year of control before leaving in 2021? Yeah they'll be fine in 2020. You're talking about 2021. 3) The free agents replaced with Mookie, JDM, and Porcello most likely won't be as good as these 3, no matter who you'd get. There's your urgency, right there. 4)I'm not a betting man, but I'd increase it by 10-20% chance better of making a deep run and a lot better chance of making it past the wild card game if you get a impact reliever. I think you have no shot if you don't go out and get someone. 5) Eric Gagne was a known steriod user before the Sox acquired him. What about Ziegler and Addison Reed?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 28, 2019 17:36:41 GMT -5
This is just... the opposite of what makes sense. The exact opposite. Yes, of course any prospect could flame out. That's exactly the logic behind keeping as many of them as possible - to hedge your bets. Which, again, is not always the right thing to do, but might be for this team in this year. (And also, again, I'm not against a minor trade.) Whereas what you want to do is trade away that diversity of risk and concentrate more risk in this season - which, again, does not seem like an especially worthwhile bet to begin with. And by the way, an elite bullpen arm is no sure bet either! Remember Eric Gagne? Or what if some team had acquired Kimbrel at the trading deadline last season how would that have worked out for them? Your last sentence in the bolded paragraph simply ignored what I said about 2020. But to add to the point: you've said that they can always just go out and get free agents, in which case, can't we expect them to still be good if/when Mookie, JDM, and Porcello are gone? Why so urgent about this particular wild card-bound season? As for WAR, yeah, I don't love it for pitchers in general, let alone relievers; I'm just using it as a quick and dirty estimate of how much value we could expect to get out of, say, 20 IP by Giles or someone like that. So you tell me - how much are those 20 innings worth? 3 wins? 5 wins? Maybe the 20 wins that Jonny Gomes' intangibles earned for his teams? And how much does it raise the odds that the Red Sox win the World Series? 1)The prospects in this system is nothing to bank on. Like there might be 2 starting calibre players in this system right now. You don't have a good hand (in the system), therefore there's no good bet by hanging onto anyone of these guys besides maybe Groome, Flores, and Casas. 2)2020? You mean the year you'd have Giles, Mookie, and JBJ on their last year of control before leaving in 2021? Yeah they'll be fine in 2020. You're talking about 2021. 3) The free agents replaced with Mookie, JDM, and Porcello most likely won't be as good as these 3, no matter who you'd get. 4) I'm not a betting man, but I'd increase it by 10-20% chance better of making a deep run and a lot better chance of making it past the wild card game if you get a impact reliever. I think you have no shot if you don't go out and get someone. The thing is, if they’re not buying, they’re likely selling which means in conjunction to keeping Flores, Casas, and Groome you’ll be adding to that pool by removing pieces at the top like Porcello, Moreland, JDM, and/or Betts. I would be shocked if this team took the timid approach and just stood pat. You can argue that they’ll be worse in 2020, but you’re also assuming they couldn’t flip their new prospects for other talent or re-sign JDM if he opts out or other free agents. At this point, all I’m advocating for is to wait to the deadline to see where this team is in the standings before making a hard decision. If they’re a game up in the Wild Card, go be a buyer. If you’re 4 out, sell.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 28, 2019 17:43:36 GMT -5
I think it's a terrible idea to either buy or sell even if they're in the same position a month from now. I'm fine with minor rental trades, but don't want any part of giving up anyone in the top 10, maybe top 20.
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