|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 31, 2019 11:34:02 GMT -5
Anything over 3 million is probably too costly for Holt.
You have Lin, Hernandez, and CJ Catham soon. Brock Holt will be 31 and will probably get close to the Marwin Gonzalez deal.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 2, 2019 5:17:25 GMT -5
You mean 1.4 bWAR and rising Brock Holt ? Asking for a friend.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Sept 2, 2019 6:43:27 GMT -5
So here's the thing with Holt: in, like, 2005 someone gives him money to try to be a starter. Maybe he gets something like 3/$20M, which is tough for the Red Sox to match. In the "suck as badly as possible in order to increase your bonus pool" era though? Signing Holt and going from a 64-win team to a 67-win team isn't part of the program, and first-division teams are probably going to be looking for more established options as a starter.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 2, 2019 9:33:25 GMT -5
So here's the thing with Holt: in, like, 2005 someone gives him money to try to be a starter. Maybe he gets something like 3/$20M, which is tough for the Red Sox to match. In the "suck as badly as possible in order to increase your bonus pool" era though? Signing Holt and going from a 64-win team to a 67-win team isn't part of the program, and first-division teams are probably going to be looking for more established options as a starter.It's true that they won't see him as a starter, but they might see him as a sort of DJ LeMahieu luxury depth piece. If not that, I could see him holding some appeal for your scrappy small market teams that do try to contend, especially if they see some legitimacy to his recent offensive improvements. I don't see anyone being willing to overpay for him, but I think there'll be enough interest to keep his price roughly fair dollars-per-projected-WAR rate.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Sept 2, 2019 10:26:30 GMT -5
So here's the thing with Holt: in, like, 2005 someone gives him money to try to be a starter. Maybe he gets something like 3/$20M, which is tough for the Red Sox to match. In the "suck as badly as possible in order to increase your bonus pool" era though? Signing Holt and going from a 64-win team to a 67-win team isn't part of the program, and first-division teams are probably going to be looking for more established options as a starter. I think you made a good point here. For all of his great qualities, Holt has definitively shown that he’s not a 500-PA player. He just breaks down. With the low end of the market bring what it is, and teams not paying aging might-be starters, I don’t think he’ll get one of those “risky but cheap for a starter” deals. BUT, he’s shown he can produce at 1st-division starter levels over a half a season. For big money contenders, that’s incredibly valuable depth and versatility. So while he almost certainly won’t get the 3/$20M chance to start, I could see him getting a 2/$12M deal or even 3/$16M as a superutility guy. I don’t think he remotely approaches Gonzalez’s deal, because Gonzalez has shown he’s capable of regularly putting up 500 PA. On a prorated basis, Holt is better, but he just doesn’t have the durability. Honestly, if they could talk him into a longer deal, like 3/$13.5M, I’d probably be ok with that. He’s putting up $15M in value this year, so they’d probably get their money’s worth. They do have a lot of utility options, all of whom should have at least *some* trade value (Lin, Hernandez, Chatham possibly...especially since he can man SS at roughly average level defensively). I think it’s sensible to platoon at 2b, see how Chatham looks, sign Holt, and then deal from excess, since it should allow them to cut costs elsewhere and gives them a better chance at above-avg production at second (more bodies means a better shot at finding the hot hand). Ideally Dalbec works out at 1b and provides 3b depth, which saves $ at 1b and eliminates the need for re-upping for guys like Pearce/Moreland ($13M saved).
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 2, 2019 12:37:28 GMT -5
Holt sure is a luxury when they have Hernandez and Lin (who is out of options next year). Unfortunately, because I love the guy and think it will be a downgrade.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 3, 2019 21:07:35 GMT -5
Holt sure is a luxury when they have Hernandez and Lin (who is out of options next year). Unfortunately, because I love the guy and think it will be a downgrade. I feel weird saying this because I'm not a Holt guy, but they need him next season. He has positional flexibility in case he's not needed at 2B and good enough to be a stopgap if Chavis, Hernandez and Lin aren't good enough.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 5, 2019 13:21:46 GMT -5
Holt is on record as saying he Loves the Red Sox and wants to play his whole career here so it’s possible something team friendly gets done. Of course he’s not turning down 10m a year for $5m but I don’t think the Red Sox would necessarily need to be the highest bidder to keep him.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,665
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 5, 2019 13:27:45 GMT -5
Holt is on record as saying he Loves the Red Sox and wants to play his whole career here so it’s possible something team friendly gets done. Of course he’s not turning down 10m a year for $5m but I don’t think the Red Sox would necessarily need to be the highest bidder to keep him. I think their offer has to be competitive. Not necessarily the highest but they're not going to get him dirt cheap. My guess is they turn over his spot to Marco Hernandez. Even though I like Hernandez as a utility player, I'd much rather see Holt get a lot of ABs at 2b. He can still hit and has actually gotten better.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 5, 2019 14:10:06 GMT -5
Holt is on record as saying he Loves the Red Sox and wants to play his whole career here so it’s possible something team friendly gets done. Of course he’s not turning down 10m a year for $5m but I don’t think the Red Sox would necessarily need to be the highest bidder to keep him. I think their offer has to be competitive. Not necessarily the highest but they're not going to get him dirt cheap. My guess is they turn over his spot to Marco Hernandez. Even though I like Hernandez as a utility player, I'd much rather see Holt get a lot of ABs at 2b. He can still hit and has actually gotten better. Has he gotten better or healthy? He was pretty damn good a few years ago too.
|
|
|
Post by kevfc89 on Sept 5, 2019 14:14:42 GMT -5
am I the only one who's not a huge fan of Holt the player and doesn't think he's made big strides this year? He's needed a .389 BABIP to reach his 122 wRC+, and his expected statistics based on statcast data are lower than what he's produced. he's fine, but definitely a luxury we shouldn't splurge for given in-house options and budget crunch.
he's still the same low ISO, BABIP dependent player he's always been imo. Nothing major has changed when you look at his profile except he's been a bit lucky this year. Steamer and ZiPS project him for the 90-100 wRC+ player that he's been for his career.
That will still probably be good for a ~2 WAR-ish season next year, but I think we can spend our money better elsewhere and have Marco, Chavis, etc. take over without much production loss.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,665
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 5, 2019 17:22:53 GMT -5
I think their offer has to be competitive. Not necessarily the highest but they're not going to get him dirt cheap. My guess is they turn over his spot to Marco Hernandez. Even though I like Hernandez as a utility player, I'd much rather see Holt get a lot of ABs at 2b. He can still hit and has actually gotten better. Has he gotten better or healthy? He was pretty damn good a few years ago too. I think he's been stinging the ball since last September. Eric Van mentioned the axe handle bat. I mean I don't know if THAT'S really the reason, but I can't discount it. He was really hitting the ball with authority last year and has continued to hit very well this year. I mean instead of being a .270 hitter he's been closer to .300 since last September. Might not really mean anything. Just not ready to discount it yet. I trust him more than Hernandez anyways. Not only is he hitting for average but he draws his walks and gets on base, something isn't really part of Hernandez's game. He doesn't K much but he doesn't walk much either so unless he hits for a big BA, the OBP won't be that impressive.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 5, 2019 17:33:23 GMT -5
Holt also dealt with concussion issues for an entire season, which will also depress his next contract a little. Another one could easily end his career. (or not)
|
|