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Mid-Season Acquistion Time
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 15, 2019 9:41:45 GMT -5
Next 7 games spells it out for me. If you go 5 & 2 or better you become a buyer for a RP to help beat Tampa. If you go 4 & 3 or worst you stand pat.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 15, 2019 9:44:49 GMT -5
For what it's worth... The scenario in the past that could've led to their being sellers would've been August waiver trades, but remember, that's gone now. Trades are not made overnight. They're not going to decide on July 29 that they're sellers and get anything done. The fact they're not currently in that posture all but closes the door. Again, if folks want to talk about what they should do in the offseason, by all means start that thread, but an in-season sell isn't happening in any circumstance that doesn't involve a cursed monkey paw. If your DD you should be prepared for either scenario. Discussing and letting teams know that if x or y happens what you might be looking to sell or buy. Obviously, you can't expect teams to wait on either scenario playing out, but at least float it out there and gauge what certain players values are worth and be ready to move in either direction. I would think there are a number of teams who are in the same predicament because of this WC2 spot and I'd imagine they're doing the same. You have to be careful floating this stuff out there. Last thing you want are media reports that the Red Sox are calling teams talking about possibly trading away pieces.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 15, 2019 9:46:31 GMT -5
The only scenario in which they become sellers is if they get crushed by the Jays and O's and suffer multiple injuries. They have a 53% chance of making the playoffs (per FG). Why on earth is everyone ready to blow the team up? Just because they're not going to win 108 games again? Seriously, go look at Oakland's roster. Go look at Cleveland's roster. These are not juggernauts. Some folks here are revealing themselves to be front-runners in the worst kind of way. "They're not going to be the World Series favorites, better blow it up and take their ball and go home." Not to be mean but it's how it looks. By the way, do you guys really think they're going to get anything interesting for bad Porcello, injured Mitch Moreland, or Eduardo Nunez? If the Red Sox aren't able to start winning series against winning teams then they're going to have an incredibly tough time catching, and staying, in the WC2 spot. No one disagrees with you about this. But unlike you, many of us don't believe the fact that they've lost several close series against really good teams means that they are destined to continue to lose those series. They CLEARLY have a more talented roster than Cleveland. Maybe they make the playoffs, and maybe they don't, but it's not even close to an insurmountable task.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 15, 2019 9:49:13 GMT -5
If your DD you should be prepared for either scenario. Discussing and letting teams know that if x or y happens what you might be looking to sell or buy. Obviously, you can't expect teams to wait on either scenario playing out, but at least float it out there and gauge what certain players values are worth and be ready to move in either direction. I would think there are a number of teams who are in the same predicament because of this WC2 spot and I'd imagine they're doing the same. You have to be careful floating this stuff out there. Last thing you want are media reports that the Red Sox are calling teams talking about possibly trading away pieces. To be fair, didn't Cora or someone publicly announce back in May or sometime that if they don't start winning games some of these guys won't be here? I get what you're saying though that if Betts is rumored that might affect his performance on the field and piss him off when he's a free agent.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 15, 2019 9:54:54 GMT -5
If the Red Sox aren't able to start winning series against winning teams then they're going to have an incredibly tough time catching, and staying, in the WC2 spot. No one disagrees with you about this. But unlike you, many of us don't believe the fact that they've lost several close series against really good teams means that they are destined to continue to lose those series. They CLEARLY have a more talented roster than Cleveland. Maybe they make the playoffs, and maybe they don't, but it's not even close to an insurmountable task. And Cleveland has a much easier schedule coming up until the deadline. They also have been winning without most of their rotation including 2 ace pitchers. They got 1 solid starter back and could potentially get Kluber and Carrasco (again, doubtful). That's a much better rotation than you. I'd also take their bullpen. The Sox offense is clearly superior. That's just Cleveland. Even if you pass them, you're still out of the playoffs. You have to pass Cleveland AND Oakland or Tampa AND stay above the Rangers who are a half game back. The Red Sox have 3 series wins against good teams this year. Two of which were in April. They're not making me confident in their ability to do so. Could the Red Sox have won last night? Yes. But they didn't. Its been as mystifying as their inability to win at home.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2019 10:13:58 GMT -5
There are two different conversations happening here.
One is whether this team will make the playoffs. One is whether they should sell.
Based on the current standings, I have a hard time thinking it's possible that the Red Sox will fall far enough behind by the deadline that they'll sell. There are 2 weeks until the deadline.
I understand there are 4 teams in very close proximity. But there are 69 games left. If there were like 10 then yes, that would be a huge problem. In a week, if they're 7 back suddenly or something, then yeah, maybe, but I don't get why people are ready to bury a team that's 2 back.
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Post by costpet on Jul 15, 2019 10:22:31 GMT -5
Just being a realist. They're not beating the Dodgers in a 7 game series and certainly not the MFY's. It just isn't happening. So, if you can't beat the best, start looking for the future. Their minor league system is pretty bad with very few "can't misses". They need to load up again for the future. They have some really good young talent right now, but the pitching situation is very bad. No one to rely on. Not even Sale.
With a lot of teams very close to the wild card spot, I think some of them might value some of our lesser players for one last spot on their roster. So, take advantage of that. I think the next 10 days will determine what is the best course. If we get hot, fine, go for it. But, if we still lose or just break even, it might be time to see what's offered in return.
My untouchables would be:
Benny Betts (at least for this year) Devers Boggy Chavis Vasquez Holt ERod
The rest? What are you offering me?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 15, 2019 10:26:54 GMT -5
No one disagrees with you about this. But unlike you, many of us don't believe the fact that they've lost several close series against really good teams means that they are destined to continue to lose those series. They CLEARLY have a more talented roster than Cleveland. Maybe they make the playoffs, and maybe they don't, but it's not even close to an insurmountable task. And Cleveland has a much easier schedule coming up until the deadline. They also have been winning without most of their rotation including 2 ace pitchers. They got 1 good solid starter back and could potentially get Kluber and Carrasco (again, doubtful). That's a much better rotation than you. I'd also take their bullpen. The Sox offense is clearly superior. That's just Cleveland. Even if you pass them, you're still out of the playoffs. You have to pass Cleveland AND Oakland or Tampa AND stay above the Rangers who are a half game back. The Red Sox have 3 series wins against good teams this year. Two of which were in April. They're not making me confident in their ability to do so. Could the Red Sox have won last night? Yes. But they didn't. It's been as mystifying as their inability to win at home. Say the Red Sox finally knock off some of this ridiculousness and start winning at home and actually start beating good teams. Say Eovaldi comes back and stabilizes the back end of the pen and Cashner gives them decent starts so that they actually have chances to win every 5th day without destroying the bullpen and say that Sale finally figures out how to be consistently excellent as he has in the past as he has for about a stretch of about a month when he was dominating. And we'll also say that the Sox cut out this nonsense of not being able to push the winning run home when one stinking hit with the crowd going crazy wins it. That Red Sox team can go 43-26, which is .623 baseball to win 93 games. That means at least two teams have to play better than say .571 baseball (40-30) for the Red Sox to fail to make the playoffs. Now this assumes that you don't have at least two teams playing better than strong baseball for the remainder of the season and it also assumes that the Red Sox starting winning more consistently. Is it possible? Hell yeah. It's not like an absurd claim that winning 100 games is doable. Does that mean it's going to happen? No, and the Red Sox thus far give little indication that you can believe it can happen. But my point is that their deficit is hardly insurmountable. I can see one of the other teams going on a nice run, but the odds that two do to the point where the Red Sox can play awesome and still fall short are lesser. And again, if the Sox can't play well enough (I mean .600 plus ball the rest of the way), then they don't deserve October baseball anyways. I'm not going to say "poor unlucky Red Sox" if they win 88 games or so and don't make the playoffs. If they do that, they wouldn't deserve it.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 15, 2019 10:28:41 GMT -5
If they do become sellers, who would be on the block? I think Bradly might be enticing to someone. Moreland if he's healthy. Nunez (please do), most of our bullpen (take your pick) In return some AAA and AA starters with real potential. As for this year, forgetaboutit. Other than Nuñez - whom they just need to get rid of - they are not going to be sellers.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 15, 2019 10:50:29 GMT -5
And Cleveland has a much easier schedule coming up until the deadline. They also have been winning without most of their rotation including 2 ace pitchers. They got 1 good solid starter back and could potentially get Kluber and Carrasco (again, doubtful). That's a much better rotation than you. I'd also take their bullpen. The Sox offense is clearly superior. That's just Cleveland. Even if you pass them, you're still out of the playoffs. You have to pass Cleveland AND Oakland or Tampa AND stay above the Rangers who are a half game back. The Red Sox have 3 series wins against good teams this year. Two of which were in April. They're not making me confident in their ability to do so. Could the Red Sox have won last night? Yes. But they didn't. It's been as mystifying as their inability to win at home. Say the Red Sox finally knock off some of this ridiculousness and start winning at home and actually start beating good teams. Say Eovaldi comes back and stabilizes the back end of the pen and Cashner gives them decent starts so that they actually have chances to win every 5th day without destroying the bullpen and say that Sale finally figures out how to be consistently excellent as he has in the past as he has for about a stretch of about a month when he was dominating. And we'll also say that the Sox cut out this nonsense of not being able to push the winning run home when one stinking hit with the crowd going crazy wins it. That Red Sox team can go 43-26, which is .623 baseball to win 93 games. That means at least two teams have to play better than say .571 baseball (40-30) for the Red Sox to fail to make the playoffs. Now this assumes that you don't have at least two teams playing better than strong baseball for the remainder of the season and it also assumes that the Red Sox starting winning more consistently. Is it possible? Hell yeah. It's not like an absurd claim that winning 100 games is doable. Does that mean it's going to happen? No, and the Red Sox thus far give little indication that you can believe it can happen. But my point is that their deficit is hardly insurmountable. I can see one of the other teams going on a nice run, but the odds that two do to the point where the Red Sox can play awesome and still fall short are lesser. And again, if the Sox can't play well enough (I mean .600 plus ball the rest of the way), then they don't deserve October baseball anyways. I'm not going to say "poor unlucky Red Sox" if they win 88 games or so and don't make the playoffs. If they do that, they wouldn't deserve it. Everything you say is indeed true and I agree with most of it. The one thing I'll say is that they haven't had a month where they've played .600 ball (best month was .593). It's this fact that makes me uncomfortable to say they can go .623 the rest of the way when they haven't gone over .600 for a single month. Especially not if Sale and Porcello keep pitching the way they are and the bullpen isn't drastically improved with the arrival of Eovaldi. Cashner is a major improvement over Velazquez for the 5th starter though. He's almost a scheduled loss when he starts.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 15, 2019 12:09:17 GMT -5
Just being a realist. They're not beating the Dodgers in a 7 game series and certainly not the MFY's. It just isn't happening. So, if you can't beat the best, start looking for the future. Their minor league system is pretty bad with very few "can't misses". They need to load up again for the future. They have some really good young talent right now, but the pitching situation is very bad. No one to rely on. Not even Sale. With a lot of teams very close to the wild card spot, I think some of them might value some of our lesser players for one last spot on their roster. So, take advantage of that. I think the next 10 days will determine what is the best course. If we get hot, fine, go for it. But, if we still lose or just break even, it might be time to see what's offered in return. My untouchables would be: Benny Betts (at least for this year) Devers Boggy Chavis Vasquez Holt ERod The rest? What are you offering me? Why would you sell in a season like this if it’s not going to be system changing type stuff? If they make the playoffs they have the talent to catch fire and win the whole thing. Certainly not the way they are playing now but this team is underachieving which by definition means they can play better. Trading pieces like Porcello won’t change the system drastically so I don’t see the point. Furthermore, how in the hell are Holt and Erod untouchables?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 15, 2019 12:54:32 GMT -5
Just being a realist. They're not beating the Dodgers in a 7 game series and certainly not the MFY's. It just isn't happening. So, if you can't beat the best, start looking for the future. Their minor league system is pretty bad with very few "can't misses". They need to load up again for the future. They have some really good young talent right now, but the pitching situation is very bad. No one to rely on. Not even Sale. With a lot of teams very close to the wild card spot, I think some of them might value some of our lesser players for one last spot on their roster. So, take advantage of that. I think the next 10 days will determine what is the best course. If we get hot, fine, go for it. But, if we still lose or just break even, it might be time to see what's offered in return. My untouchables would be: Benny Betts (at least for this year) Devers Boggy Chavis Vasquez Holt ERod The rest? What are you offering me? Why would you sell in a season like this if it’s not going to be system changing type stuff? If they make the playoffs they have the talent to catch fire and win the whole thing. Certainly not the way they are playing now but this team is underachieving which by definition means they can play better. Trading pieces like Porcello won’t change the system drastically so I don’t see the point. Furthermore, how in the hell are Holt and Erod untouchables? Agree completely. And if one can't get his/her head around that, consider rhetorically if the Nats called the FO and said, ERod and Dalbec for Scherzer, he's touchable. Now exchange the name of Scherzer with about 50-60 players and you can see how tradable they are.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2019 14:04:33 GMT -5
The premise of "they're not going to beat team X on the playoffs" is itself incredibly flawed, never mind once you add "so why even try" and "so they might as well just trade guys away and tank. " I mean let's just cancel the season and let the Dodgers, Yankees, and Astros play a round robin for the trophy then. By that logic there may as well be like 27 sellers trying to sell players to those teams, right?
Between that and Brock Holt as untouchable I'm fairly certain you're just trolling.
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Post by soxjim on Jul 15, 2019 16:40:58 GMT -5
Just being a realist. They're not beating the Dodgers in a 7 game series and certainly not the MFY's. It just isn't happening. The problem is you think you are being a realist. but you aren't. You are under a false assumption that how they are playing now is how they will play late. If they were to make the playoffs it would probably means lots of the problems apparent now are gone. So if they DID make the playoffs it would probably mean they are playing at a high level. Which makes your point of "being a realist" - just wrong. I can't even say imo that you are an "alarmist." Not personal-- not attacking you-- but how you make the statements above you are in the cup is half empty camp. You've written off the last 69 games as "meaningless." That's the defining of someone unwilling to look at anything but negative. Just think of how well the Sox last year won with a mediocre Chris Sale and rotten Kimbrel and had to rely on Price who had history of doing terrible in playoffs. Now this year you got it all figured out before the playoffs even start? I doubt it. You're just frustrated. And I agree with being frustrated. I don't think their is one fan that isn't frustrated.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 15, 2019 16:45:39 GMT -5
Just being a realist. They're not beating the Dodgers in a 7 game series and certainly not the MFY's. It just isn't happening. The problem is you think you are being a realist. but you aren't. You are under a false assumption that how they are playing now is how they will play late. If they were to make the playoffs it would probably means lots of the problems apparent now are gone. So if they DID make the playoffs it would probably mean they are playing at a high level. Which makes your point of "being a realist" - just wrong. I can't even say imo that you are an "alarmist." Not personal-- not attacking you-- but how you make the statements above you are in the cup is half empty camp. You've written off the last 69 games as "meaningless." That's the defining of someone unwilling to look at anything but negative. Just think of how well the Sox last year won with a mediocre Chris Sale and rotten Kimbrel and had to rely on Price who had history of doing terrible in playoffs. Now this year you got it all figured out before the playoffs even start? I doubt it. You're just frustrated. And I agree with being frustrated. I don't think their is one fan that isn't frustrated. Not necessarily, could also just means that everyone else just played worse, but I do think that's an even more unlikely scenario.
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Post by soxjim on Jul 15, 2019 18:17:18 GMT -5
The problem is you think you are being a realist. but you aren't. You are under a false assumption that how they are playing now is how they will play late. If they were to make the playoffs it would probably means lots of the problems apparent now are gone. So if they DID make the playoffs it would probably mean they are playing at a high level. Which makes your point of "being a realist" - just wrong. I can't even say imo that you are an "alarmist." Not personal-- not attacking you-- but how you make the statements above you are in the cup is half empty camp. You've written off the last 69 games as "meaningless." That's the defining of someone unwilling to look at anything but negative. Just think of how well the Sox last year won with a mediocre Chris Sale and rotten Kimbrel and had to rely on Price who had history of doing terrible in playoffs. Now this year you got it all figured out before the playoffs even start? I doubt it. You're just frustrated. And I agree with being frustrated. I don't think their is one fan that isn't frustrated. Not necessarily, could also just means that everyone else just played worse, but I do think that's an even more unlikely scenario. Yes. But I did say "probably." That was to account for the "unlikely scenario" etc.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2019 5:15:01 GMT -5
Would really like to see the Sox pick up Keon Broxton on a waiver claim. Better platoon splits against LHP. JDM sees ZERO time in the outfield from here on out. He's a burner on the bases and he's a slightly above average defender. Good potential 4th outfielder who can fill the void for a good while until someone displaces him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 6:05:11 GMT -5
System seems poised to make a huge jump in terms of national outlets in the rankings next year. Not there yet, but it will be. Guys like Flores, Gilberto Jimenez, Groome, Mata, Lugo, Decker, Shugart, and of course Casas could change prospective on the Sox farm system real soon. That's a lot of great young talent and most of these guys are already performing in the low levels. There are a few standout tools on this list too. Two clear starting pitchers in Mata and Groome. Two clear short stops in Flores and Lugo. Casas' power. Jimenez's speed. Dalbec's power and arm. I expect Dombrowski to trade someone in the top 10 this trade deadline if the Sox are contending though, and that'll reset this thought, however. Any speculation on who gets traded? And for what? relief? I would think, like you I believe, that the most likely guy would be Dalbec. Because of Devers and Chavis in front and Casas behind. Along with 2 or 3 other 3rd prospects. I think it'll be for Ken Giles. It'll definitely be relief. The Jays would need to throw in 1 million to 1.5 million dollars to make it work for the Sox to stay under the last luxury tax threshold, if the math is correct. I think Dalbec is probably the most likeliest candidate. I would do it, it might hurt by 2021, but you got to do it. Problem with this message board is sometimes people can be wishy washy with the direction they want to see the team go with. Like for me it was either one direction or the other. If they were going to sell, then listen on guys like even Mookie Betts. If you're competing, then don't be afraid to get the last piece and trade top prospects to get that last relief piece. Many people want to see the Sox keep Mookie and compete, while not trading top prospects for anything impactful. That makes no sense to me. It's not just one poster, it's many posters on here that think like this. Either max out this window to win, or reset. That's where you have to go with the luxury tax rules, and how small market teams have a edge in the new CBA, with all the extra competitive balance picks and whatnot.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 24, 2019 7:13:09 GMT -5
Any speculation on who gets traded? And for what? relief? I would think, like you I believe, that the most likely guy would be Dalbec. Because of Devers and Chavis in front and Casas behind. Along with 2 or 3 other 3rd prospects. I think it'll be for Ken Giles. It'll definitely be relief. The Jays would need to throw in 1 million to 1.5 million dollars to make it work for the Sox to stay under the last luxury tax threshold, if the math is correct. I think Dalbec is probably the most likeliest candidate. I would do it, it might hurt by 2021, but you got to do it. Problem with this message board is sometimes people can be wishy washy with the direction they want to see the team go with. Like for me it was either one direction or the other. If they were going to sell, then listen on guys like even Mookie Betts. If you're competing, then don't be afraid to get the last piece and trade top prospects to get that last relief piece. Many people want to see the Sox keep Mookie and compete, while not trading top prospects for anything impactful. That makes no sense to me. It's not just one poster, it's many posters on here that think like this. Either max out this window to win, or reset. That's where you have to go with the luxury tax rules, and how small market teams have a edge in the new CBA, with all the extra competitive balance picks and whatnot. The problem is “last piece” is questionable. Is this team one arm away from fixing its problems?
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Post by incandenza on Jul 24, 2019 9:46:35 GMT -5
Any speculation on who gets traded? And for what? relief? I would think, like you I believe, that the most likely guy would be Dalbec. Because of Devers and Chavis in front and Casas behind. Along with 2 or 3 other 3rd prospects. I think it'll be for Ken Giles. It'll definitely be relief. The Jays would need to throw in 1 million to 1.5 million dollars to make it work for the Sox to stay under the last luxury tax threshold, if the math is correct. I think Dalbec is probably the most likeliest candidate. I would do it, it might hurt by 2021, but you got to do it. Problem with this message board is sometimes people can be wishy washy with the direction they want to see the team go with. Like for me it was either one direction or the other. If they were going to sell, then listen on guys like even Mookie Betts. If you're competing, then don't be afraid to get the last piece and trade top prospects to get that last relief piece. Many people want to see the Sox keep Mookie and compete, while not trading top prospects for anything impactful. That makes no sense to me. It's not just one poster, it's many posters on here that think like this.
Either max out this window to win, or reset. That's where you have to go with the luxury tax rules, and how small market teams have a edge in the new CBA, with all the extra competitive balance picks and whatnot. I believe it's been pointed out about a hundred times that the 2020 season is a thing that's going to happen, and if you trade Mookie you make the team worse in 2020 with no clear way to make up for the loss. Meanwhile the farm system is weak and the Sox are not in a really great position this season, so further weakening the farm for a very marginal upgrade this season is not a great bet. Obviously you disagree here, but these aren't especially complicated thoughts. Like, do you play poker? Do you either fold or go all in on every hand? Sometimes neither of those are the best option. So there. 101 times.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,200
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Post by cdj on Jul 24, 2019 10:44:30 GMT -5
I wouldn’t mind them buying low on Kela, who is apparently available
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 14:15:50 GMT -5
I think it'll be for Ken Giles. It'll definitely be relief. The Jays would need to throw in 1 million to 1.5 million dollars to make it work for the Sox to stay under the last luxury tax threshold, if the math is correct. I think Dalbec is probably the most likeliest candidate. I would do it, it might hurt by 2021, but you got to do it. Problem with this message board is sometimes people can be wishy washy with the direction they want to see the team go with. Like for me it was either one direction or the other. If they were going to sell, then listen on guys like even Mookie Betts. If you're competing, then don't be afraid to get the last piece and trade top prospects to get that last relief piece. Many people want to see the Sox keep Mookie and compete, while not trading top prospects for anything impactful. That makes no sense to me. It's not just one poster, it's many posters on here that think like this.
Either max out this window to win, or reset. That's where you have to go with the luxury tax rules, and how small market teams have a edge in the new CBA, with all the extra competitive balance picks and whatnot. I believe it's been pointed out about a hundred times that the 2020 season is a thing that's going to happen, and if you trade Mookie you make the team worse in 2020 with no clear way to make up for the loss. Meanwhile the farm system is weak and the Sox are not in a really great position this season, so further weakening the farm for a very marginal upgrade this season is not a great bet. Obviously you disagree here, but these aren't especially complicated thoughts. Like, do you play poker? Do you either fold or go all in on every hand? Sometimes neither of those are the best option. So there. 101 times. At some point, you have to go all in poker, especially if you're in a competition. That is unless you've been ahead the whole time and you don't need to go all in (like the 2018 Boston Red Sox). Yes, 2020 will happen, but you know it's almost stupid to be wishy washy about a direction. Who cares if the farm system is weak at the moment? You're talking about a tear down in 2021 if you're risking letting Mookie go to free agency anyways. Still doesn't make sense. Nope.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 24, 2019 14:47:21 GMT -5
At some point, you have to go all in poker, especially if you're in a competition. I mean, this isn't even true in a lot of poker games.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 14:51:57 GMT -5
At some point, you have to go all in poker, especially if you're in a competition. I mean, this isn't even true in a lot of poker games. Then how is a poker competition ever decided by a eventual winner?
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 24, 2019 14:56:03 GMT -5
I mean, this isn't even true in a lot of poker games. Then how is a poker competition ever decided by a eventual winner? It is by definition impossible for the chip leader to go all in.
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