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Mid-Season Acquistion Time
ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 11, 2019 16:26:13 GMT -5
The once-excellent Homer Bailey is a FA who sucked for years and had a .370 through May 22, but is .303 since. The catch is that was a terrific .271 through 6 starts and .405 in his last two. The question is: has he had other 6 game stretches where he was terrific, within the last few years of suckitude? This one I can look into quickly, and plan to. No, he hasn't. Not close. Among 34 different 6-game stretches (many overlapping, of course) from 2015 to the middle of this year, the best he had managed was .331 from July 24 to August 26 of last year, after which he had .310 in his next two starts and didn't pitch again. That 8-game stretch of .326 edged out his last 7 starts of the previous season, .332, as his best sustained stretch of pitching since 2014.
He's missed a lot of time with injuries, but this pattern of pitching better as the season progresses means that teams will be watching him closely. Of course, in the last 4 years, 2017 was the only season where he made a start after 9/5, so medicals will be crucial.
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Post by greenmonsterwhalers on Jul 12, 2019 22:00:58 GMT -5
Here's an idea: instead of trading for a starter, let's just move Steven Wright into the rotation.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 12, 2019 22:11:59 GMT -5
Here's an idea: instead of trading for a starter, let's just move Steven Wright into the rotation. Alex Cora said he will be used exclusively as a reliever this year to keep him healthy.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2019 5:18:47 GMT -5
Here's an idea: instead of trading for a starter, let's just move Steven Wright into the rotation. Was just thinking the same thing about Eovaldi. I know he needs to be stretched out an all of that, but that could be done in the big leagues with Wright maybe being a piggy back for 2-3 innings until Eovaldi works his way back. Cora just named Velazquez and Wright as candidates for Tuesday's game. But if Wright starts, he won't be expected to go more than 3 or 4, I would think.
At least at first. They were saying earlier that Wright wouldn't start because of his knee history. If that's no longer a concern, that does change things.
Cora also didn't contradict the statement that Eovaldi to the pen was just to get him back sooner and stretch him out with an eye to starting.
So things are in flux ... if Wright can be the bridge until Eovaldi is stretched out, and then they can swap roles to reduce the stress on Wright's knee (and Because Eovaldi should be evern better), and Darwinzon can come up about a week before the deadline ... they can wait and see whether they need to add an arm, and if so, whether they want a starter or reliever. If the latter, there's a ton of guys available.
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Post by hammerhead on Jul 13, 2019 5:39:29 GMT -5
I was completely in the buy, buy, buy camp, but seeing Darwinzon in relief, I'm seriously hedging my bet.
Getting Eovaldi back is obviously crucial. I like the idea the poster above had... Start Wright for 2 or 3 innings then go to Eovaldi or Darwinzon for 2 or 3... Back in the days of Wakefield they always talked about pitching Wakefield ahead or behind the big velocity guy's (Pedro, Beckett, Schilling, etc..). The theory was that the fluttering knuckler messed up the hitters timing enough to throw then off against the big arms who followed the next day.
I think that theory might be nasty in the same game. Wright's 75 butterfly to Eovaldi's 100 mph cheese.
Edit: Eric I remember you used to (and still) do a lot of crazy cool comparisons. Did you ever put together any numbers for any advantage a fasrball pitcher gets following a knucleball?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 13, 2019 5:39:50 GMT -5
Was just thinking the same thing about Eovaldi. I know he needs to be stretched out an all of that, but that could be done in the big leagues with Wright maybe being a piggy back for 2-3 innings until Eovaldi works his way back. Cora just named Velazquez and Wright as candidates for Tuesday's game. But if Wright starts, he won't be expected to go more than 3 or 4, I would think.
At least at first. They were saying earlier that Wright wouldn't start because of his knee history. If that's no longer a concern, that does change things. It's always a concern. They are going to be careful with Wright going forward, no matter the case. Wright went through the same knee surgery that just ended Pedrioa's career. Hard stop. Ohh and he's almost 35 years old. Another hard stop. Wright has made 25 appearances since the end of 2016. (How many red flags do we need here?) The Sox will be lucky if Wright makes it through the end of August healthy. That's how people have to think with Stephen Wright right now. The Sox already tried to make him a starter last year and he went straight to the DL soon thereafter.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2019 7:14:02 GMT -5
Cora just named Velazquez and Wright as candidates for Tuesday's game. But if Wright starts, he won't be expected to go more than 3 or 4, I would think.
At least at first. They were saying earlier that Wright wouldn't start because of his knee history. If that's no longer a concern, that does change things. It's always a concern. They are going to be careful with Wright going forward, no matter the case. Wright went through the same knee surgery that just ended Pedrioa's career. Hard stop. Ohh and he's almost 35 years old. Another hard stop. Wright has made 25 appearances since the end of 2016. (How many red flags do we need here?) The Sox will be lucky if Wright makes it through the end of August healthy. That's how people have to think with Stephen Wright right now. The Sox already tried to make him a starter last year and he went straight to the DL soon thereafter. To tack on, Wright was suspended for taking something. Total speculation alert (AND I COULD BE VERY VERY WRONG!): But perhaps he was popped for taking something that would speed up his injury recovery process. Perhaps, like Andy Pettitte before him, he was trying to cut down his healing time or perhaps he was trying something that kind of bypasses the pain in his knee. I don't know, but if it's the latter, then you have to question how long that knee holds out for. Wright pitching well would be a bonus. Depending on Wright doesn't make any sense. Cora was depending on Wright in October and he didn't even get into Game 1 and Cora adjusted. I never thought about it - but perhaps things would have looked very different had Wright been the go-to guy instead of the "rovers". Credit to Cora for figuring out the best way to make things work while taking care of the balancing act of when to deploy a starter in the pen and at what point in the game between starts and then knowing when to pull that starter when he's starting so he doesn't get burnt out too soon.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jul 13, 2019 21:11:16 GMT -5
All of this is spot on, IMO. The biggest issue on the team hasn't been the bullpen. They really just need one more high-leverage arm, just so that Barnes doesn't get totally overexposed by the end of the season. And then one mid-level guy to soak up innings and push everyone else up - probably either Hernandez or Hembree. Bigger picture, they need better production from the top of the lineup and better production from the 5th starter spot. Agree that, bigger picture, they need better production from the top of the lineup and better production from the 5th starter spot. Don't think they can help the top of the order by making a trade (we just have to get Betts and Benintendi going or at least move Devers up to the 2nd spot permanently. But I could see them making a trade to fix the 5th starter spot. I am no longer convinced that Eovaldi is going to be back heathy enough this year to take a spot in the starting rotation. Maybe, if they are close near the trade deadline, make a trade for a starter and put Eovaldi in the bullpen (along with the return of Wright and hopefully Hembre that will be enough to help the bullpen). If the starter you trade for at the deadline is still with the Sox next year when hopefully Eovaldi is ready to go back in the rotation, the starter can fill Porcello's spot in the rotation. Of course, if they fall too far behind too many teams for the second wild card spot, you try to get something for Porcello and maybe Moreland, and if you do not intend to sign him for next year, Holt. Thought it was pretty clear for awhile they were going to go after a starter to fix the 5th starter spot. However, would never have guessed they could do it with 2 17 year old kids. Unfortunately, since my prior post the bullpen has deteriorated and I do not think Wrigth and Hembre are enough. Let's hope Eovaldi is heathy and can be the guy to stabilize the pen. What is the deal with Putnam? I thought he was going to be back sometime this year. Was hoping he could help.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2019 11:34:09 GMT -5
I'd still like a RH bat off the bench and am still thinking it could be Tyler Austin, whose only real skill is getting on base vs. lefties, and who would likely cost next to nothing.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 14, 2019 12:21:01 GMT -5
I'd still like a RH bat off the bench and am still thinking it could be Tyler Austin, whose only real skill is getting on base vs. lefties, and who would likely cost next to nothing. I think that you are absolutely right...........he will cost next to nothing .
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Post by telson13 on Jul 14, 2019 21:31:01 GMT -5
Hmm, I see Edwin Diaz, a guy who has been mentioned here as a potential trade target and fix for the Sox bullpen, is up to a 5.67 ERA (3.72 FIP). It would be a coup if the Sox could get Diaz for a reasonable price. I think it’s highly unlikely, given what the Mets gave up in Kelenic et al, and that it was so recent. But...Mets. I can actually see them cutting bait, though with the control years and underperformance in peripherals, and that BVW seems at least reasonably competent (if hamstrung by an ill org), it’s unlikely.
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Post by costpet on Jul 15, 2019 6:10:33 GMT -5
There comes a point where we may actually be sellers, rather than buyers. We may be reaching that point very soon.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 15, 2019 6:22:35 GMT -5
There comes a point where we may actually be sellers, rather than buyers. We may be reaching that point very soon. If the Sox *manage* to lose ground from here until the July 22nd-24th series against Tampa, and then they lose that series to Tampa, you could be 5 games or more out of the second wild card. High payroll or not, that's worst case scenario and the Sox should keep that in mind and have contingency plans to sell, if it comes down to that. We got one more week of baseball to see where the Sox fall in the standings. Then the real season comes and then you're going to find out the next 9 games if you're a real contender or not. Everytime you think the Sox are going to get on a roll, they lose a important series. It's been a cringeworthy follow all season when it comes to the Sox playoff watch, ever since they took the first 2 and a half weeks off of the season.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 15, 2019 6:45:17 GMT -5
There comes a point where we may actually be sellers, rather than buyers. We may be reaching that point very soon. If the Sox *manage* to lose ground from here until the July 22nd-24th series against Tampa, and then they lose that series to Tampa, you could be 5 games or more out of the second wild card. High payroll or not, that's worst case scenario and the Sox should keep that in mind and have contingency plans to sell, if it comes down to that. We got one more week of baseball to see where the Sox fall in the standings. Then the real season comes and then you're going to find out the next 9 games if you're a real contender or not. Everytime you think the Sox are going to get on a roll, they lose a important series. It's been a cringeworthy follow all season when it comes to the Sox playoff watch, ever since they took the first 2 and a half weeks off of the season. And often, this year, it isn't that they lose, it's how they lose. Top tier teams at this point in the season shouldn't be running into outs, lack effective arms and suck at clutch hitting.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 15, 2019 7:52:31 GMT -5
There comes a point where we may actually be sellers, rather than buyers. We may be reaching that point very soon. Sellers of what exactly? They're not going to torpedo 2020 because they're underachieving in 2019. So what's there to sell that anybody really wants? There's Rick Porcello underperforming his contract in 2019. There's Eduardo Nunez who has been awful. There's Mitch Moreland who has been injured for the past two months. And there's Steve Pearce whose season has been a washout. They're not trading Mookie or JD Martinez nor should they. What they need to do is figure out why Chris Sale hasn't done what he's capable of doing. He really hasn't been the same since before his injury in 2018. He's had flashes - he had a nice little stretch this season before reverting back to his struggles. It's in there, but how do they get it to remain consistently? The reason I bring up Chris Sale (not to mention Eovaldi being healthy as well) is because if they have Sale and Price as a dominant 1-2 punch - and they finally figure out who's THE GUY in the bullpen come 2020, and clear out some of the deadwood, the Red Sox are as capable of winning the World Series as any other team in 2020, so to deal away Betts and/or Martinez would make no sense whatsoever. If they're playing the same way in 2020 that they're playing in 2019, different story. Obviously they wouldn't get as much, but they're not going to punt on the 2020 season before it even begins.
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Post by costpet on Jul 15, 2019 7:53:36 GMT -5
If they do become sellers, who would be on the block? I think Bradly might be enticing to someone. Moreland if he's healthy. Nunez (please do), most of our bullpen (take your pick)
In return some AAA and AA starters with real potential.
As for this year, forgetaboutit.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2019 7:54:44 GMT -5
The only scenario in which they become sellers is if they get crushed by the Jays and O's and suffer multiple injuries.
They have a 53% chance of making the playoffs (per FG). Why on earth is everyone ready to blow the team up? Just because they're not going to win 108 games again? Seriously, go look at Oakland's roster. Go look at Cleveland's roster. These are not juggernauts.
Some folks here are revealing themselves to be front-runners in the worst kind of way. "They're not going to be the World Series favorites, better blow it up and take their ball and go home." Not to be mean but it's how it looks.
By the way, do you guys really think they're going to get anything interesting for bad Porcello, injured Mitch Moreland, or Eduardo Nunez?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 15, 2019 8:02:15 GMT -5
If they do become sellers, who would be on the block? I think Bradly might be enticing to someone. Moreland if he's healthy. Nunez (please do), most of our bullpen (take your pick) In return some AAA and AA starters with real potential. As for this year, forgetaboutit. Bradley is enticing to the Red Sox if they have aspirations of trying to win in 2020, which I'm sure they do. And if they did trade him with a year left on his deal they would need an OF back because trading him away for AAA or AA starters only opens up a hole in the OF and detracts from the strength of the Red Sox, their OF defense. There's no way Duran or Jimenez would be ready in 2020, and I don't think the Sox are inclined to move JDM into LF full-time and move the best defensive RF in the game to CF.
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 15, 2019 8:50:11 GMT -5
Good posts. The desire right now to give up on not only 2019 but (apparently) 2020 as well is baffling to me...and I say that as someone who wanted them to sell way harder in 2014 and 2015 than they ultimately did.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,780
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Post by mobaz on Jul 15, 2019 8:55:21 GMT -5
There comes a point where we may actually be sellers, rather than buyers. We may be reaching that point very soon. Sellers of what exactly? They're not going to torpedo 2020 because they're underachieving in 2019. So what's there to sell that anybody really wants? There's Rick Porcello underperforming his contract in 2019. There's Eduardo Nunez who has been awful. There's Mitch Moreland who has been injured for the past two months. And there's Steve Pearce whose season has been a washout. They're not trading Mookie or JD Martinez nor should they. What they need to do is figure out why Chris Sale hasn't done what he's capable of doing. He really hasn't been the same since before his injury in 2018. He's had flashes - he had a nice little stretch this season before reverting back to his struggles. It's in there, but how do they get it to remain consistently? The reason I bring up Chris Sale (not to mention Eovaldi being healthy as well) is because if they have Sale and Price as a dominant 1-2 punch - and they finally figure out who's THE GUY in the bullpen come 2020, and clear out some of the deadwood, the Red Sox are as capable of winning the World Series as any other team in 2020, so to deal away Betts and/or Martinez would make no sense whatsoever. If they're playing the same way in 2020 that they're playing in 2019, different story. Obviously they wouldn't get as much, but they're not going to punt on the 2020 season before it even begins. Based on last year and flashes to date, this team has the ceiling to beat anyone any time. If it doesn't happen, fine, but I don't see a selloff on July 31st making any sense, for all the reasons you said. You win or you don't but the team has the payroll, ceiling and lack of flexibility that finishing out with what you have makes the most sense. If there was an Aug 31 deadline, I could see a Porcello/Pearce/Nunez type move but doesn't move the needle on July 31st for getting any sort of reasonable future asset.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2019 8:58:39 GMT -5
For what it's worth...
The scenario in the past that could've led to their being sellers would've been August waiver trades, but remember, that's gone now.
Trades are not made overnight. They're not going to decide on July 29 that they're sellers and get anything done. The fact they're not currently in that posture all but closes the door.
Again, if folks want to talk about what they should do in the offseason, by all means start that thread, but an in-season sell isn't happening in any circumstance that doesn't involve a cursed monkey paw.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 15, 2019 9:27:14 GMT -5
The only scenario in which they become sellers is if they get crushed by the Jays and O's and suffer multiple injuries. They have a 53% chance of making the playoffs (per FG). Why on earth is everyone ready to blow the team up? Just because they're not going to win 108 games again? Seriously, go look at Oakland's roster. Go look at Cleveland's roster. These are not juggernauts. Some folks here are revealing themselves to be front-runners in the worst kind of way. "They're not going to be the World Series favorites, better blow it up and take their ball and go home." Not to be mean but it's how it looks. By the way, do you guys really think they're going to get anything interesting for bad Porcello, injured Mitch Moreland, or Eduardo Nunez? Cleveland has been playing without Clevinger (just got back), Salazar (throwing minor league games), Kluber (close to throwing bullpen) and Carrasco (throwing bullpens and feeling "great", but I'd be shocked if he came back after a cancer diagnoses). They're not just 2.5 games behind Oakland, they're 2.0 behind Cleveland as well and 0.5 ahead of Texas. The Red Sox having a bad 2 weeks will effectively end their season. Cleveland also has an incredibly easy schedule coming up with: 4 at home against the Tigers (29-59) 3 at home against the Royals (32-62) 3 at Toronto (35-59) 4 at Kansas City (32-62) Fortunately/unfortunately for the Red Sox their schedule picks up again against the Astros, Angels, Rangers, Twins, Red Sox, Yankees in that order, but only after the deadline. As far as "talent on the roster". In theory, the Red Sox should be the better team on paper. They haven't played like it, at all. MLB Relative Power Index (RPI) - 2019 EXPW-L Rays: 60-35 Athletics: 56-38 Red Sox: 51-42 Rangers: 49-45 Angels: 49-45 Indians: 48-43 The Rays and the Athletics have a much better run differential than the Red Sox. TB - +102 A's - +83 RS - +53 The Red Sox have been terrible at home to the tune of 21-24. Against better competition the Red Sox are 19-28. The Rays are 29-30 The Athletics are 32-24 If the Red Sox aren't able to start winning series against winning teams then they're going to have an incredibly tough time catching, and staying, in the WC2 spot. One of these things are not like the others: Baseball Reference gives the Red Sox a 17.7% chance of making the playoffs: www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-playoff-odds.shtmlFangraphs have them at 53.5%: www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-oddsfivethirtyeight have them at 38%: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/Baseball Prospectus have them at 33.4% (not updated after yesterday's loss): legacy.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 15, 2019 9:28:13 GMT -5
For what it's worth... The scenario in the past that could've led to their being sellers would've been August waiver trades, but remember, that's gone now. Trades are not made overnight. They're not going to decide on July 29 that they're sellers and get anything done. The fact they're not currently in that posture all but closes the door. Again, if folks want to talk about what they should do in the offseason, by all means start that thread, but an in-season sell isn't happening in any circumstance that doesn't involve a cursed monkey paw. That’s a bit strong. There’s a small chance it happens, very unlikely but its not zero. I will say that making small sells makes no sense whatsoever. The only way you can talk me into a sell off maybe making sense, is a farm system reset type of thing. Think Mookie goes because you get a Chris Sale mega offer for him. Then you can sell other big (like JDM) and smaller pieces and reload for the next 5 years with a system that is worth something. I agree it’s not happening but the possibility doesn’t involve a cursed monkey paw. It might just take them doing something they’ve already done this year, suck for the next 10 days and the right team picking up the phone and asking a crazy question.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 15, 2019 9:34:04 GMT -5
For what it's worth... The scenario in the past that could've led to their being sellers would've been August waiver trades, but remember, that's gone now. Trades are not made overnight. They're not going to decide on July 29 that they're sellers and get anything done. The fact they're not currently in that posture all but closes the door. Again, if folks want to talk about what they should do in the offseason, by all means start that thread, but an in-season sell isn't happening in any circumstance that doesn't involve a cursed monkey paw. If your DD you should be prepared for either scenario. Discussing and letting teams know that if x or y happens what you might be looking to sell or buy. Obviously, you can't expect teams to wait on either scenario playing out, but at least float it out there and gauge what certain players values are worth and be ready to move in either direction. I would think there are a number of teams who are in the same predicament because of this WC2 spot and I'd imagine they're doing the same.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 15, 2019 9:41:35 GMT -5
If they sell and the team falls way out, there will be a drop in TV revenue.
The revenue from being in the wild card race .... Pays for the free agent acquisitions.
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