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Mid-Season Acquistion Time
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Post by Guidas on Jul 5, 2019 14:14:26 GMT -5
I actually don’t hate it! It would be funny to see him vs the MFY Meh, he's striking out 40 percent of the time and all he's good for is starting fights lol. Check out L/R splits. He would be exclusively used against LHP.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 6, 2019 16:22:17 GMT -5
Hmm, I see Edwin Diaz, a guy who has been mentioned here as a potential trade target and fix for the Sox bullpen, is up to a 5.67 ERA (3.72 FIP).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2019 16:25:55 GMT -5
Hmm, I see Edwin Diaz, a guy who has been mentioned here as a potential trade target and fix for the Sox bullpen, is up to a 5.67 ERA (3.72 FIP). Buy Low. That's fine.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 6, 2019 16:36:34 GMT -5
Hmm, I see Edwin Diaz, a guy who has been mentioned here as a potential trade target and fix for the Sox bullpen, is up to a 5.67 ERA (3.72 FIP). Buy Low. That's fine. ...and has a career ERA of 3.09, which is 0.72 higher than Ryan Brasier's, and only 0.28 better than Heath Hembree's.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2019 16:50:20 GMT -5
...and has a career ERA of 3.09, which is 0.72 higher than Ryan Brasier's, and only 0.28 better than Heath Hembree's. And Diaz a career FIP of 2.73 and career XFIP of 2.60. Which is two runs lower than Hembrees career average and 2-3 runs lower than Brasiers career average. Brasier isn't good. The fact that you're using his one year sample is crap too. He's been very fortunate and had one half of a great season last year. Diaz has been very good for a very long time and is 25.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 6, 2019 17:01:26 GMT -5
...and has a career ERA of 3.09, which is 0.72 higher than Ryan Brasier's, and only 0.28 better than Heath Hembree's. And Diaz a career FIP of 2.73 and career XFIP of 2.60. Which is two runs lower than Hembrees career average and 2-3 runs lower than Brasiers career average. Brasier isn't good. The fact that you're using his one year sample is crap too. He's been very fortunate and had one half of a great season last year. Diaz has been very good for a very long time and is 25. I'd say he's been fairly good for a little while (he's only 25). To be fair the projections have him as about a half win better over the rest of the season than Brasier or Hembree. Mostly I just think with relievers you're basically playing pachinko though.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2019 17:13:41 GMT -5
And Diaz a career FIP of 2.73 and career XFIP of 2.60. Which is two runs lower than Hembrees career average and 2-3 runs lower than Brasiers career average. Brasier isn't good. The fact that you're using his one year sample is crap too. He's been very fortunate and had one half of a great season last year. Diaz has been very good for a very long time and is 25. I'd say he's been fairly good for a little while (he's only 25). To be fair the projections have him as about a half win better over the rest of the season than Brasier or Hembree. Mostly I just think with relievers you're basically playing pachinko though. He's a near 5 bWAR career player, which is about 4.5 bWAR wins better than Hembree and 4 bWAR than Brasier. Diaz would be a upgrade by all counts of value.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 8, 2019 11:19:57 GMT -5
Interesting. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/red-sox-trade-rumors-starting-pitcher-rotation.htmlI mean, does Dombrowski go after a rental in the Paul Byrd/Doug Fister genre of pitching? Somebody like an Andrew Cashner would fit the mold. A back-end starter with a neglible trade cost. Of course the question is how much better is a Cashner type of pitcher than the Johnson/Wright/Velazquez options? I think you can make the argument that at least a Cashner type is healthy, something that you can't say about Johnson, Wright, or Velazquez. Of course getting a back-end starting pitcher doesn't do much to keep the pressure off the overworked bullpen. Is Dombrowski aiming higher? If so he doesn't have a ton to work with. It would have to be a rental. Ideally, you'd hope that if you deal somebody like Dalbec you have a replacement for Porcello next year as well as help this year, all with the hope that Mata (assuming they don't deal him?) would take a rotation spot possibly in 2021. It doesn't sound like Dombrowski will have enough to get a bullpen arm along with a mid-rotation starter (without destroying the farm system) unless the starting pitching move he makes is for a back-end starter.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2019 11:32:25 GMT -5
We don't need to destroy the farm system further. They need a 5th starter that can throw 5+ innings every time, which would greatly help the bullpen overall. They could even use another Porcello with mediocre performance. I'd gladly sign up for Danny Duffy or Cashner.
I don't know if Bumgarner would require a lot because of his past career but he's pretty mediocre now and if the price reflects that, he'd be a good get too. Although moving from San Francisco to Fenway is about as harsh as it gets for pitchers. Might be why the Red Sox are on his no-trade list.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 8, 2019 14:45:56 GMT -5
I would expect them to TRY and repeat what they did last year. Get a back end starter who has a powerful arm they can project to a bullpen role for the playoffs.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 8, 2019 15:19:10 GMT -5
A starter that can give us 6 innings per start would be huge for the back end of the rotation and the over used bullpen.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 9, 2019 4:49:23 GMT -5
nypost.com/2019/07/08/the-indians-mentality-that-could-lead-trevor-bauer-to-yankees/amp/If Scherzer is unavailable, this is the next best option. Bauer has been historically tough against the Sox in his career. The Yankees with Bauer might be the best team in baseball. Ugh. I hate saying that. The reality about this deadline is that the Yankees have enough to get anyone the so choose, if they want to pay the price. They seem anxious and ready to pay that price this year now. They are in win now mode. They are casting a wide net to everyone that's good- Bauer Robbie Ray Zach Wheeler Max Scherzer (if available) Marcus Stroman Ken Giles
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 9, 2019 8:57:41 GMT -5
nypost.com/2019/07/08/the-indians-mentality-that-could-lead-trevor-bauer-to-yankees/amp/If Scherzer is unavailable, this is the next best option. Bauer has been historically tough against the Sox in his career. The Yankees with Bauer might be the best team in baseball. Ugh. I hate saying that. The reality about this deadline is that the Yankees have enough to get anyone the so choose, if they want to pay the price. They seem anxious and ready to pay that price this year now. They are in win now mode. They are casting a wide net to everyone that's good- Bauer Robbie Ray Zach Wheeler Max Scherzer (if available) Marcus Stroman Ken Giles So, it's nuts to say the Red Sox being 2 out of the playoffs entirely should sell, but the Indians who are holding the 2nd Wild Card Berth by 1.5 over Oakland and are 0.5 behind TB for WC1 are going to sell one of their best starting pitchers? I already believe the Yankees are the best team in baseball and once they get a starting ace it'll increase their likelihood of winning the WS that much more.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 9, 2019 9:19:38 GMT -5
So, it's nuts to say the Red Sox being 2 out of the playoffs entirely should sell, but the Indians who are holding the 2nd Wild Card Berth by 1.5 over Oakland and are 0.5 behind TB for WC1 are going to sell one of their best starting pitchers? I have no idea what you're trying to say.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 9, 2019 9:26:03 GMT -5
So, it's nuts to say the Red Sox being 2 out of the playoffs entirely should sell, but the Indians who are holding the 2nd Wild Card Berth by 1.5 over Oakland and are 0.5 behind TB for WC1 are going to sell one of their best starting pitchers? I have no idea what you're trying to say. That the Indians are holding onto a WC spot and have a decent grasp on it. They’re going to be cool selling off their current ace? It’s a move that they are/should be considering? The Red Sox are 2 out entirely and it’s crazy to fathom trading away any one who they are at risk of losing between this year and next? I hold the position of waiting till the deadline, but I don’t see how moving Bauer makes sense unless they don’t value their odds at getting that 1-game playin.
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Post by coachmac on Jul 9, 2019 9:39:15 GMT -5
I have no idea what you're trying to say. That the Indians are holding onto a WC spot and have a decent grasp on it. They’re going to be cool selling off their current ace? It’s a move that they are/should be considering? The Red Sox are 2 out entirely and it’s crazy to fathom trading away any one who they are at risk of losing between this year and next? I hold the position of waiting till the deadline, but I don’t see how moving Bauer makes sense unless they don’t value their odds at getting that 1-game playin. Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic proffered that the Indians might make a deal similar to the Chris Archer for Glasgow/ Meadows deal from last year. Trade for cheaper assets who can help this year and build for the future. The example he used was for the Yankees to trade Frasier/ German for Bauer. He thinks Bauer would thrive in New York.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 9, 2019 9:42:48 GMT -5
I have no idea what you're trying to say. That the Indians are holding onto a WC spot and have a decent grasp on it. They’re going to be cool selling off their current ace? It’s a move that they are/should be considering? The Red Sox are 2 out entirely and it’s crazy to fathom trading away any one who they are at risk of losing between this year and next? Dude, I'm not Alex Trabek over here, can you just give your statement in the form of a statement? Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic proffered that the Indians might make a deal similar to the Chris Archer for Glasgow/ Meadows deal from last year. Trade for cheaper assets who can help this year and build for the future. The example he used was for the Yankees to trade Frasier/ German for Bauer. He thinks Bauer would thrive in New York. Classic sportswriter's trade. Bauer is a name, but it's debatable if he's even better than German at this point, and he certainly has less value once service time comes into the equation.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2019 9:49:58 GMT -5
That the Indians are holding onto a WC spot and have a decent grasp on it. They’re going to be cool selling off their current ace? It’s a move that they are/should be considering? The Red Sox are 2 out entirely and it’s crazy to fathom trading away any one who they are at risk of losing between this year and next? I hold the position of waiting till the deadline, but I don’t see how moving Bauer makes sense unless they don’t value their odds at getting that 1-game playin. Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic proffered that the Indians might make a deal similar to the Chris Archer for Glasgow/ Meadows deal from last year. Trade for cheaper assets who can help this year and build for the future. The example he used was for the Yankees to trade Frasier/ German for Bauer. He thinks Bauer would thrive in New York. This is also exactly the proposal mentioned in the linked article, which apparently no one bothered to read. It also quoted Francona in a way that suggested the organization might be open to something like this. Also I had totally not noticed that the Indians are only 5.5 behind Minnesota all of a sudden. 16-5 in their last 21 games. They're not gonna be a pushover in the wild care race.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2019 9:55:55 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic proffered that the Indians might make a deal similar to the Chris Archer for Glasgow/ Meadows deal from last year. Trade for cheaper assets who can help this year and build for the future. The example he used was for the Yankees to trade Frasier/ German for Bauer. He thinks Bauer would thrive in New York. This is also exactly the proposal mentioned in the linked article, which apparently no one bothered to read. It also quoted Francona in a way that suggested the organization might be open to something like this. Also I had totally not noticed that the Indians are only 5.5 behind Minnesota all of a sudden. 16-5 in their last 21 games. They're not gonna be a pushover in the wild care race. It's as if the entire season counts, not just the first 60 games. I'm not sure where people got the idea that very little ever changes after a half season. It happens every single season.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 9, 2019 10:00:31 GMT -5
That the Indians are holding onto a WC spot and have a decent grasp on it. They’re going to be cool selling off their current ace? It’s a move that they are/should be considering? The Red Sox are 2 out entirely and it’s crazy to fathom trading away any one who they are at risk of losing between this year and next? I hold the position of waiting till the deadline, but I don’t see how moving Bauer makes sense unless they don’t value their odds at getting that 1-game playin. Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic proffered that the Indians might make a deal similar to the Chris Archer for Glasgow/ Meadows deal from last year. Trade for cheaper assets who can help this year and build for the future. The example he used was for the Yankees to trade Frasier/ German for Bauer. He thinks Bauer would thrive in New York. So, the plan is that the Indians can still compete just as much, if not more so, by trading away their current best pitcher? I don’t think the combination of German and Frazier (which would be kind of funny if they acquired Frazier) helps them more than Bauer does this year. Point is, if they make that move they care more about future seasons than they do this one, in which they’re ahead in WC2 standings. Then again, I just looked up Bauer’s numbers and thought he was doing a lot better than he actually is, so maybe this is a big win for them if it gets done.
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Post by coachmac on Jul 9, 2019 10:16:55 GMT -5
I agree they become slightly worse by making this move but the underlying motive for the Indians,in my opinion, would be financial.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 9, 2019 16:26:39 GMT -5
There seems to be a consensus (since it is pretty obvious) that another starting pitcher is crucial. Over the last 2 years Brian Johnson has a .331 xwOBA (with my adjustments for balls hit to center and opposirion quality), which is solid MLB #4 starter territory. But they have nothing after him, and pushing him to 6 on the depth chart would be huge, as guys will get hurt.
If you insist on a RHP (and certainly you'd have a preference for one):
Zach Wheeler will be a FA and has a .303 xwOBA. Everyone will be after him, of course.
Jeff Samardzija has a .316. Can he keep that up? I'm not going to look into that. He has one more year left at $16M AAV, so you'd ask the Giants to eat most of that. Trivial salary relief plus a fringe prospect would be a win for them. Of course, everyone will be thinking that way, if it turns out that the .316 is for real.
The once-excellent Homer Bailey is a FA who sucked for years and had a .370 through May 22, but is .303 since. The catch is that was a terrific .271 through 6 starts and .405 in his last two. The question is: has he had other 6 game stretches where he was terrific, within the last few years of suckitude? This one I can look into quickly, and plan to.
Andrew Cashner, FA with an option, has had insanely great luck on balls in play (.288 wOBA, .344 xwOBA adjusted). No thank you.
Marcus Stroman, .297, is the obvious guy who has 2 years of arb left. Dylan Bundy, .301, is less obvious. Noah Syndergaard, .274, also fits this description. What would he cost?
I just don't think it makes sense for a team with a thin system to pay for a guy who has 4 or 5 years of control left. You are in part paying for upside that may not be realized.
Two intriguing lefties are the Met's Jason Vargas (.313, FA with an option) and the Mariners Tommy Milone, FA, .286 but in a sample half the size of these guys. He's been mostly used as a 5-6 inning bulk guy, so his team thinks he has trouble with good hitters. I have no idea how good he really is and probably won't look any further.
Bumgarner, by the way, is .335. Danny Duffy, who has 2 years left and whom the Royals are reportedly shopping, is .332.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 9, 2019 16:50:36 GMT -5
That the Indians are holding onto a WC spot and have a decent grasp on it. They’re going to be cool selling off their current ace? It’s a move that they are/should be considering? The Red Sox are 2 out entirely and it’s crazy to fathom trading away any one who they are at risk of losing between this year and next? Dude, I'm not Alex Trabek over here, can you just give your statement in the form of a statement? Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic proffered that the Indians might make a deal similar to the Chris Archer for Glasgow/ Meadows deal from last year. Trade for cheaper assets who can help this year and build for the future. The example he used was for the Yankees to trade Frasier/ German for Bauer. He thinks Bauer would thrive in New York. Classic sportswriter's trade. Bauer is a name, but it's debatable if he's even better than German at this point, and he certainly has less value once service time comes into the equation. Less valuable? Sure, because of the age and team control. However, German has thrown just over 100 innings twice in his pro career. Bauer has thrown 175 or more innings the past 4 years and is on pace to do that again. Bauer has also broken out to be one of the better pitchers in the AL the past two years. Yeah, it's pretty safe to assume Bauer is the better pitcher at this point.
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Post by jimmydugan on Jul 10, 2019 20:06:09 GMT -5
This probably isn't the year. The top teams in the AL are just too good, the Sox won last year and we've got a <50% chance of making the ALDS.
I see the priorities as: 1) Pitching Depth 2) Stockpile bats
This sounds vague, but I don't think we need top end SPs or 5 tool players..get any bat you believe in. over the off season reassess the right side of the infield at the MLB/MiLB level and see what JDM does with his contract.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 10, 2019 22:18:35 GMT -5
This probably isn't the year. The top teams in the AL are just too good, the Sox won last year and we've got a <50% chance of making the ALDS. I see the priorities as: 1) Pitching Depth 2) Stockpile bats This sounds vague, but I don't think we need top end SPs or 5 tool players..get any bat you believe in. over the off season reassess the right side of the infield at the MLB/MiLB level and see what JDM does with his contract. Not sure what you would do with more bats. A week or two from now Moreland will be back and a month from now Pearce should be back, which would necessitate demoting Hernandez or releasing Nunez. Perhaps a LHH bat for AAA depth would be nice (assuming you aren't sold on Ockimey being off value for depth) but not vital. 1 SP would keep the BP from being overtaxed and should fill the only real hole (along with BP reinforcements from the minors), otherwise I don't see anything else to do. Which seems like a good thing and a bad thing. Anything else feels like we're throwing a spoiler on a Honda Civic.
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