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The Great Gilberto Jimenez
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 16, 2021 20:11:04 GMT -5
I don’t think he’d be moved in an Aybar for Koss but if they wanted to go out and get an MLB pitcher I could see it Agreed, although if you could get two 15-30 range guys I'd be interested in that as well
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 18, 2021 15:47:25 GMT -5
Was talking about this with Addam603 at FXBG during the rain delay the other night. It's certainly interesting, as they don't usually move guys like Jimenez around so much if they're truly premium prospects. That said, the fact they brought him in to MLB spring training does suggest they think he's a premium guy in their system.
Rafaela has played the corner OF just once, so in his case, part of it might be that they're exposing him to CF first before moving him into the corners. They've done similarly with Ryan Fitzgerald this year. This is like a "way it comes off the bat" sort of thing - I recall Wily Mo Pena of all people was arguably a better defensive CF than COF because he could read the ball better there.
Maita has gotten 4 starts in CF. Jimenez was in the lineup for 1. I think that's just a matter of getting him a few games out there, mostly in games with the B lineup.
It's different but I've come off of thinking that it's a thing.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Aug 18, 2021 20:39:37 GMT -5
Jimenez faced Hill Cats left handed reliever Randy Labaut tonight: He swung at 5 pitchs and missed 3 times for the K which is in line with his season numbers as he struck out 36.9% of the time vs LHP entering tonight with a 67.4% contact rate.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 18, 2021 20:51:15 GMT -5
I’ll cut him some slack when he gives us 2 triples. It is weird though- isn’t the right side his natural side?
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Aug 18, 2021 21:25:15 GMT -5
Triples vs the Hill cats should be considered doubles lol their OF defense, CFer Corey Holland in particular, is atrocious. But yeah, the point of comment was about the degradation of his hitting from his natural side (He started hitting lefty in the DSL in 2018). You'd like to see progress from prospects: Less errors on defense, more contact, better discipline numbers etc etc but in the case of Jimenez he's basically the same hitter from the left side, the same mediocre fielder and base stealer (12 SB, 8 CS) and he's regressing in terms of his strengths. Maybe those added pounds of muscles are hurting his game a la Benintendi?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2021 16:40:19 GMT -5
Since 6/15: .319/.364/.430, 20.5% k rate, just 8/14 on steals. Better, at least.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Aug 23, 2021 17:05:04 GMT -5
Since 6/15: .319/.364/.430, 20.5% k rate, just 8/14 on steals. Better, at least. .111 IsoP with a 20.5% K rate for a 21 yo COF in Low-A ball? Color me unimpressed.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 8, 2021 20:51:05 GMT -5
Gilberto was drafted 21st overall in the LIDOM draft by Gigantes del Cibao.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 27, 2021 21:09:02 GMT -5
It's a really interesting dilemma.
Hitting RH, his "natural" side (sure looks more natural in the video above), he was terrible this season in 81 PA: .211/.222/.316 with 2 walks and 29 K.
Hitting LH, in 327 PA, he slashed .330/.377/.428 with 17 BB (plus 8 HBP) and 57 K.
Obviously he'll never be a power hitter but that .377 OBP as a strong-side platoon is tantalizing, even as a corner OF and especially with his speed (assuming someone can teach him how to read pitchers' moves).
But do you pull the plug on his "natural" batting side and tell him to bat LH full-time? He'd be a step closer to first base, at least.
He's still young (turned 21 mid-season) but assuming he moves on up to Greenville next year, what makes anyone think he'll improve significantly from the right side as opposing pitchers get better?
You're already selling kind of low on him but I think you have to listen if someone includes him in a trade request. For a kid from the DR, he doesn't seem to be a natural at baseball...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 28, 2021 1:08:33 GMT -5
Given that it doesn't cost a team much ($50,000?) to pick a guy, give their coaches a closer look at him, and then return him later if they're not overwhelmed, I think Chaim either trades Jimenez before the roster deadline or protects him and continues to gauge his market, rather than possibly giving him up for nothing.
Teams also can trade a Rule 5 pick to a third team, as long as he stays on the new team's 26-man roster. Also, if a Rule 5 pick gets hurt, it shaves off some of the time that he needs to be on the active roster (i.e. the time that he's on the IL and then his rehab time in the minors -- and why not at his appropriate minor league level?).
Because of all the ways that a player could be lost for nothing via the Rule 5 draft, I think a guy who's been a system top-10 guy for a while like Gilberto will either be gone already in a trade or won't be exposed when the time comes.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 28, 2021 7:21:43 GMT -5
I have a hard time believing a team will put Jimenez on their roster for a full season. It's not like they can stash him there and have him develop on his days off and give some game action here and there like a pitcher. He's a position player who needs regular playing time to develop and the jump from low A to the majors is pretty big.
That doesn't mean he isn't traded or added, I'm just not sure they need to.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 28, 2021 7:42:13 GMT -5
26 man roster changes some things a bit, you can almost look at it as a stash spot. It’s not like teams had a ton of trouble getting by with a 25 man roster before
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Post by incandenza on Sept 28, 2021 8:46:55 GMT -5
I have a hard time believing a team will put Jimenez on their roster for a full season. It's not like they can stash him there and have him develop on his days off and give some game action here and there like a pitcher. He's a position player who needs regular playing time to develop and the jump from low A to the majors is pretty big. That doesn't mean he isn't traded or added, I'm just not sure they need to. Yeah, maybe I'm wrong about this, but this scenario seems pretty fantastical to me. Who's going to use a roster spot for a full year on a guy who isn't remotely close to ready for the big leagues? Has any team actually done something like that before?
If we were talking about a player at AA or above, or a true Wander Franco-grade blue-chipper, then I could see it. But Jimenez is neither of those things.
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Post by jmei on Sept 28, 2021 9:23:39 GMT -5
I have a hard time believing a team will put Jimenez on their roster for a full season. It's not like they can stash him there and have him develop on his days off and give some game action here and there like a pitcher. He's a position player who needs regular playing time to develop and the jump from low A to the majors is pretty big. That doesn't mean he isn't traded or added, I'm just not sure they need to. Yeah, maybe I'm wrong about this, but this scenario seems pretty fantastical to me. Who's going to use a roster spot for a full year on a guy who isn't remotely close to ready for the big leagues? Has any team actually done something like that before? If we were talking about a player at AA or above, or a true Wander Franco-grade blue-chipper, then I could see it. But Jimenez is neither of those things.
It’s pretty uncommon, but does happen. For instance, in the 2016 Rule 5 draft, the Padres took SS and former IFA signee Allen Cordoba out of rookie-level Appalachian League ball (!!!), kept him on the roster for all of 2017 as a 21 year old (getting 227 PAs over 100 games (42 starts) mostly at SS and LF), putting up with a gross .208/.282/.297 (55 wRC+ and -1.1 fWAR) line while going 71-91, and sent him to high-A Lake Elsinore in 2018. ADD: doesn’t look like Cordoba was a top 100 ranked prospect when he got popped in Rule 5. Looks like he was DFAed (and went unclaimed) in 2018 and is still kicking around the Padres farm system (put up a pretty good line in AA this year as a 25-year old, albeit at 3B). ADD2: old friend Oscar Hernandez is another example of another former IFA who got popped in Rule 5 out of single-A Bowling Green by the Diamondbacks in the 2014 as a 21 year old, stuck on the MLB roster in 2015 despite a 25 wRC+ (!!!!!) with the assistance of an extended IL stay, and was optioned to high-A to start the next season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2021 9:46:22 GMT -5
It seems to me that while Jimenez probably doesn't have a huge ceiling he could still be taken in the draft. He has two tools that could be of use to a cellar dweller. He has a ton of speed and he can play defense. And he's young enough that a wasted year of not playing a lot would hurt his development but not necessarily kill it.
He also has a bit of a hit tool as well, so while that one probably won't play immediately, he could go back to AA at age 23 and still be viable to be a legit major leaguer by age 25. Maybe by then he could have himself a Manny Margot type career?
So I think there's a chance he's taken if not protected.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 28, 2021 9:46:28 GMT -5
I'm not sure that it's especially easy to stash a guy now. The 26th roster spot was added as the burden on bullpens has gotten significantly heavier.
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Post by jmei on Sept 28, 2021 10:55:16 GMT -5
I definitely think a team could find a way to take Jimenez and stash him as a fourth/fifth outfielder all year. What I don’t have a good sense of is how likely that is.
As Chris alluded to, in part because of the lost minor league season last year, a lot of other teams have a 40-man roster crunch, which both means a surplus of other compelling Rule 5 picks and a lack of open 40-man spots. I have to think that there will be other unprotected guys who have better present-day MLB value (experience in the high minors, more MLB-ready skills) and comparable long-term upside. Are there enough of those guys where you take the risk with leaving him unprotected? I haven’t done that work, but I could see a scenario where you come to the conclusion that he’s so far down the list that you get comfortable leaving him unprotected (which would have been hard to imagine a few months ago).
The other side of the coin is what you gain from that extra 40-man spot. If it’s to protect, say, Kaleb Ort or Ryan Fitzgerald instead, eh, I’d rather not take a chance that Jimenez gets popped (remember, even if he ultimately gets returned, it’s disruptive to his development to loan him out to another franchise). But if it’s because you can steal someone else’s compelling player in Rule 5, maybe that’s worth it.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 28, 2021 11:35:00 GMT -5
Another factor is that Gilberto is worth more as a prospect if the Red Sox manage to sneak him through the offseason without adding him to the 40 man. So if you kinda like him as a player, and you think the risk is low, but you also don't really care about the last 2-3 guys on the 40 man, you still might want to leave him unprotected.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 28, 2021 14:19:46 GMT -5
It's a really interesting dilemma. Hitting RH, his "natural" side (sure looks more natural in the video above), he was terrible this season in 81 PA: .211/.222/.316 with 2 walks and 29 K. Hitting LH, in 327 PA, he slashed .330/.377/.428 with 17 BB (plus 8 HBP) and 57 K. Obviously he'll never be a power hitter but that .377 OBP as a strong-side platoon is tantalizing, even as a corner OF and especially with his speed (assuming someone can teach him how to read pitchers' moves). But do you pull the plug on his "natural" batting side and tell him to bat LH full-time? He'd be a step closer to first base, at least. He's still young (turned 21 mid-season) but assuming he moves on up to Greenville next year, what makes anyone think he'll improve significantly from the right side as opposing pitchers get better? You're already selling kind of low on him but I think you have to listen if someone includes him in a trade request. For a kid from the DR, he doesn't seem to be a natural at baseball... Note that the ISO from the right side is higher. I'm a long way from thinking they should pull the plug on him from the right side at this point (although it's not like I've seen him daily). --- The other interesting thing is that, if my memory serves, Groome (who had extenuating injury circumstances before the lost 2020 season) is the only guy they've protected who hadn't played above Low-A since I've started doing this. I believe there have only been a handful who topped out in High-A (Argenis Diaz, Denyi Reyes maybe, perhaps 1 or 2 more). Jimenez not only hasn't made it to High-A, but hasn't made it to 2021 High-A, for which the bar is lower. Now, there are extenuating circumstances again here - if there's a 2021 season he would've been in High-A this year - so it's more of an oddity than anything.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 28, 2021 16:22:53 GMT -5
It's a really interesting dilemma. Hitting RH, his "natural" side (sure looks more natural in the video above), he was terrible this season in 81 PA: .211/.222/.316 with 2 walks and 29 K. Hitting LH, in 327 PA, he slashed .330/.377/.428 with 17 BB (plus 8 HBP) and 57 K. Obviously he'll never be a power hitter but that .377 OBP as a strong-side platoon is tantalizing, even as a corner OF and especially with his speed (assuming someone can teach him how to read pitchers' moves). But do you pull the plug on his "natural" batting side and tell him to bat LH full-time? He'd be a step closer to first base, at least. He's still young (turned 21 mid-season) but assuming he moves on up to Greenville next year, what makes anyone think he'll improve significantly from the right side as opposing pitchers get better? You're already selling kind of low on him but I think you have to listen if someone includes him in a trade request. For a kid from the DR, he doesn't seem to be a natural at baseball... Note that the ISO from the right side is higher. I'm a long way from thinking they should pull the plug on him from the right side at this point (although it's not like I've seen him daily). --- The other interesting thing is that, if my memory serves, Groome (who had extenuating injury circumstances before the lost 2020 season) is the only guy they've protected who hadn't played above Low-A since I've started doing this. I believe there have only been a handful who topped out in High-A (Argenis Diaz, Denyi Reyes maybe, perhaps 1 or 2 more). Jimenez not only hasn't made it to High-A, but hasn't made it to 2021 High-A, for which the bar is lower. Now, there are extenuating circumstances again here - if there's a 2021 season he would've been in High-A this year - so it's more of an oddity than anything. ISO of .105 as RH vs. .098 as LH? Seems like a wash to me and doesn't make up for the .155 difference in OBP. I don't think anyone's counting on him for much power going forward anyway. But he's still young and if they ever do pull the plug on the RH batting, it's not like that'll be a big adjustment -- just hit LH vs. LHP and if he's terrible, he's still a strong-side platoon guy. It's also a pretty SSS (particularly from the right side) but it's just so odd that he makes so much less contact with his "natural" swing. The more I think about it, the more I think I would try to trade him even if he didn't need to be protected. He can clearly do some things well, like get on base as a LH batter (again, strong side platoon), but he's so "unnatural" as a ballplayer -- fast but can't steal bases; speed gives him good range but has below-average fielding instincts; hits better from his "learned" side than from his "natural" side. It's like he's the opposite of the unassuming kid who steps between the lines and makes you say "that's a ballplayer" (reminds me of Joe Castig's favorite story about Pedroia, who was stopped at the players' entrance at Coors Field in the 2007 WS and asked who he was, to which he replied "Go ask Jeff Fucking Francis who I am.")
All that said, I think Gilberto checks enough boxes: blazing speed, big arm, high OBP, still young; that he'll be protected from the Rule 5 -- either by the Red Sox or by someone who trades for him. Just too much risk of losing him for nothing to someone like the Pirates or D-Backs or Orioles (remember when they used to pick a Sox kid every year?) or another team that can afford to waste a big-league roster spot in a year with no expectations. Didn't the Padres pick like 4 or 5 Rule 5 kids one year during their rebuild?
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 15, 2022 19:12:27 GMT -5
Whiff% leaderboard in the South Atlantic League :1- Gilberto Jimenez: 22.2% . . 3- Nicholas Northcut: 21.0% Jimenez had a 33.3% K rate in April and he's cut it to 22.2% in May. He walked one time in April (1.6%) and has already done so six times (13.3%) in May. Northcut had a 31.3% K rate in April and it's jumped to 43.8% in May. He walked three times in April (4.5%) in has walked twice (4.2%) in May. Jimenez, for some reason, had a stretch where he swung at everything. Like, absolutely everything. He's stopped doing that and has been playing really well. Throw in the fact that Jimenez has other tools and your getting-compulsive "compare everyone with Jimenez" tic doesn't hold. I prefer using whiff% and swing% , when I can have access to those, than using K rate or BB rate because they are more stable and predictive indicators. He leads his league in swing and miss percentage, that’s more reflective of his toolset than his k% over 43 at bat. He’s an extremely agressive hitter, always was ( He swung at over 60% of the pitches he saw last year in Low A, 60.5% to be exact, 2nd in the Low A East) and I’ll need more than an 11 games in May sample to think that maybe something has clicked for him. And when you say that “Jimenez has other tools”, what tools are you referring to? - Defense? He’s already a COF who made just 3 starts in CF this year, they even preferred starting Tyler Esplin over him in center in a game this week. Even at the corners he’s not very good defensively as Chris and Ian mentioned in one of this year podcasts. - Power? He has hit the ball on the ground for over 50% of the time in every single level he played in. You can’t tap into any type of power if you can’t lift the ball. - Speed? He has a long track record of being an inefficient base stealer while playing against pitchers who are at a stage where holding the runner is not a priority…Yes, he’s been good so far this year but I need to see more to be convinced that progress has been made. Regarding my “compulsive tic”: I like making fun of his hilariously bad plate discipline. I also think that he’s overrated by this website and a large portion of the fan base who follows prospects. When he was ranked in the Top 10 here, I’ve argumented that I don’t think that the FO does value him as highly when they pulled the plug on the “Jimenez in CF experience” quickly and they didn’t protect him in the rule 5 draft as I expected.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 16, 2022 9:39:06 GMT -5
There are concerns with Jimenez, but I'd suggest that given that we're fully aware he's using completely retooled swing mechanics from the left side, there's reason to be patient. The swinging strike rate is definitely concerning, but as James has pointed out in another thread, there is good reason to think that hasn't been consistent throughout the month-and-a-half.
The new stance and mechanics are precisely made to address the power issue. Will they work? Dunno. I'm gonna give it time before I bury him. FWIW, his .190 ISOp is miles above what he's done previously. But I do think he had some maturing to do in understanding that hitting .300 in A-ball isn't necessarily good when paired with a sub-.100 ISO and the other various issues - all legit! - you raise.
For whatever it's worth, on the CF thing, I think he's not playing it right now because he's on the same team as probably the two best defensive CF in the system. But the concerns about his defense are noted and I don't necessarily disagree. And as for "how the team has valued him" piece, it's fair to say, I think, that inviting him to MLB camp (late) last spring to get him in early said something, and I think not protecting him in Rule 5 was a calculated decision based on the fact that he hadn't even played in High-A yet and didn't have a great 2021. They didn't protect the guy you have constantly compared him to, Rafaela, either (who we agree was a greater risk to leave unprotected with his skillset), as well as other guys they were in danger of losing like Fitzgerald, Kelly, and German.
(And for whatever it's worth, you do tend to fixate on things, Jimenez chief among them. Like you can talk about Rafaela or Northcut without having to compare them to Jimenez. You do it on Twitter all the time too.)
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