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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 9, 2020 11:32:02 GMT -5
It seems like there has been buzz around pretty much every Red Sox target (Hassell, Abel, PCA, Cavalli, Crochet) being gone by 17 but if that happens, someone has to fall, right? Maybe Mitchell? Just seems unlikely they all go so high, especially with teams likely to be more conservative.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 9, 2020 11:35:31 GMT -5
That has to be the Angels given how they’ve operated so far. Let’s hope whichever team it is doesn’t take a player other teams want to genuinely sign. MLB should do something if they are doing it deliberately. I don't feel bad for other teams that may want to sign the kids, I feel bad for the kids if they genuinely wanted to play pro baseball right away.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 9, 2020 11:38:50 GMT -5
The Red Sox should be thinking; Starting Pitcher, Starting Pitcher, Starting Pitcher, Starting Pitcher, Starting Pitcher If they consider two talents to be about equal, then yeah. But if they pass up say a highly regarded outfielder for a questionable pitcher (in their evaluations) then they would be foolish. You draft the best talent available, not by need. If the two talents are equal, then you pick the need. Say Abel is the guy they want and he's gone and Crochet is their best option but they don't like him anywhere near as much as PCA, then they'd be fools to select Crochet, just because he's a pitcher.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 9, 2020 11:53:53 GMT -5
Unless the Sox do something wildly off-board, I don't really feel like I'll be disappointed with anything that has been mentioned as a possibility. I'll be fine with whichever college pitcher they like, or if they decide to go with one of the hyped prep arms. More intrigued with Hendrick than PCA, but I'd be fine with them or Hassell or even Soderstrom. Mitchell and Howard would probably be my least favorite path, but would obviously be fine with having them.
Someone I haven't seen mentioned as a possibility that I have a major crush on right now is Aaron Sabato. Also I'd be fine pulling the trigger on Garrett Crochet.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 9, 2020 12:00:39 GMT -5
Unless the Sox do something wildly off-board, I don't really feel like I'll be disappointed with anything that has been mentioned as a possibility. I'll be fine with whichever college pitcher they like, or if they decide to go with one of the hyped prep arms. More intrigued with Hendrick than PCA, but I'd be fine with them or Hassell or even Soderstrom. Mitchell and Howard would probably be my least favorite path, but would obviously be fine with having them. Someone I haven't seen mentioned as a possibility that I have a major crush on right now is Aaron Sabato. Also I'd be fine pulling the trigger on Garrett Crochet. Sabato would be my first target if the Sox were looking to go heavy underslot at that position to target some high school guys late.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 9, 2020 12:09:25 GMT -5
That has to be the Angels given how they’ve operated so far. Let’s hope whichever team it is doesn’t take a player other teams want to genuinely sign. MLB should do something if they are doing it deliberately. I don't feel bad for other teams that may want to sign the kid, I feel bad for the kids if he genuinely wanted to play pro baseball right away. Absolutely. Let's hope if this happens, then the selection is for a player who was already set on not signing (e.g., Dylan Crews). Otherwise, what an awful thing to do.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 9, 2020 12:22:53 GMT -5
From the BA chat today (still going on):
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Post by ramireja on Jun 9, 2020 12:26:23 GMT -5
Even though the pick is in line with a lot of other outlets, the logic strikes me as strange, considering the rest of those guys were taken out of college. If they go PCA, I hope they punt and offer him the minimum in order to recoup a pick next year. Curious as to why you feel this way? He's a potential plus defensive CFer with a track record of hitting, elite makeup, and elite bat speed (diamond kinetics) metrics. His upside is very high.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 9, 2020 12:36:08 GMT -5
A name I haven’t seen mentioned for the Red Sox that I will throw out there is Dillon Dingler. Sounds like he might have been a big mover in this draft with a full spring but is still trending toward the middle of the 1st round.
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Post by borisman on Jun 9, 2020 12:53:21 GMT -5
A name I haven’t seen mentioned for the Red Sox that I will throw out there is Dillon Dingler. Sounds like he might have been a big mover in this draft with a full spring but is still trending toward the middle of the 1st round. There's nothing wrong with picking Dingler in the first round. I just think the Sox will have better options/talent being available to them at 17. I guess what I'm trying to say is Dingler's ceiling isn't nearly as high as some other prospects.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 9, 2020 13:25:30 GMT -5
If they go PCA, I hope they punt and offer him the minimum in order to recoup a pick next year. Curious as to why you feel this way? He's a potential plus defensive CFer with a track record of hitting, elite makeup, and elite bat speed (diamond kinetics) metrics. His upside is very high. From what I've read, I don't have confidence in the power ever coming. You can sign toolsy outfielders in free agency, I'd rather swing for the fences with a pitcher who could develop into a 1 or a 2.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 9, 2020 13:45:01 GMT -5
Curious as to why you feel this way? He's a potential plus defensive CFer with a track record of hitting, elite makeup, and elite bat speed (diamond kinetics) metrics. His upside is very high. From what I've read, I don't have confidence in the power ever coming. You can sign toolsy outfielders in free agency, I'd rather swing for the fences with a pitcher who could develop into a 1 or a 2. On Keith Law's podcast yesterday, Keith and Jonathan Mayo agreed that PCA was probably hurt the most (along with Crochet) by things getting shutdown. Apparently he put on a lot of muscle in the off season and was starting to hit for more power in the early portions of his season. What gives you a lack of confidence in the power showing up?
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Post by ramireja on Jun 9, 2020 14:38:20 GMT -5
Unless the Sox do something wildly off-board, I don't really feel like I'll be disappointed with anything that has been mentioned as a possibility. I'll be fine with whichever college pitcher they like, or if they decide to go with one of the hyped prep arms. More intrigued with Hendrick than PCA, but I'd be fine with them or Hassell or even Soderstrom. Mitchell and Howard would probably be my least favorite path, but would obviously be fine with having them. Someone I haven't seen mentioned as a possibility that I have a major crush on right now is Aaron Sabato. Also I'd be fine pulling the trigger on Garrett Crochet. Sabato is just a particularly tough follow w/out a 2nd round pick. I don't think you can take a guy with that 1B/DB profile (plus there's a little swing and miss) at #17 and he's highly unlikely to be there in Round 3.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 9, 2020 15:22:21 GMT -5
Some draft strategy thoughts: First, I think the Red Sox will take the “best player available” given that player is available at or near the slot amount of $3.6M. That said, I think the BPA approach quite honestly comes off better in theory than in practice. How often are you in a situation in which there is a clear best player available when taking into account 1) college vs. HS, 2) position player vs. pitcher (not to mention comparing different positions), and 3) differing opinions among the decision-makers? I think the earlier you are in the draft, the easier it is to operate this way. For example, someone’s board may clearly have Torkelson in a tier of his own as say a FV60 player, with guys like Austin Martin and Asa Lacy in a next FV55 tier. How much further do you have to go though, before you’re picking between a number of guys all in the same space? The middle of the 1st round? 2nd round?
So to be clear, at pick #17, it’s very possible the Sox identify a clear BPA available (PCA? Bitsko?), and they should go get that guy. If this isn’t the case though, I want to consider the possibility of selecting the guy in the available tier who creates the most savings to spend on later picks. So for example, let’s pretend it’s our turn to pick, there are a handful of players on the same FV45+ tier according to the internal evaluations, and the Red Sox have knowledge that one of these guys is willing to sign underslot at $3.0M (i.e., the signing bonus that falls between picks #22 and #23). Consider that if our 1st round pick were to sign for $3.0M, we could pull off the following scenarios:
- Sign our 3nd rounder for ~$1.5M and our 4th & 5th rounders at slot. - Sign our 3nd and 4th rounders for ~1.0M each and our 5th rounder at slot. - Sign our 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders for ~$800K each.
If the Red Sox are anticipating that HS players are more likely to drop in this draft compared to previous drafts, AND they have some knowledge that a number of guys they like are signable for the above figures, then this could be a nice strategy to implement. I wouldn’t be mad at a draft that used that strategy and then went after some more upside in Rounds 3-5. In particular, I’m really interested in the following HS guys who could be available when we pick in Round 3, although I won’t pretend to know who is signable:
Kevin Parada David Calabrese Petey Halpin Kala’i Rosario Coby Mayo Harold Coll
I would be pretty excited about a draft that netted us a high-floor, medium-upside college pitcher in Round 1 (think Tanner Burns), with a couple of HS upside options in Rounds 3-4 (let's say Parada + Halpin).
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 9, 2020 15:23:56 GMT -5
Some guys who interest me for 3rd to 5th rounds: Hudson Haskins - Mason Erla Landon Knack Jacob Misiorowski Jordan Nwogu - Isaiah Greene Like a lot of those names as well.
One of my favorite 3-5 round options is RHP Nick Frasso from Loyola Maramount. Good frame, delivery, not a ton of innings, but good track record of results, pitched for Collegiate National Team, like the arm reached 97 w a really good curve, change flashes, and someone I think w more starts this spring would be gone by the Sox' 3rd rounder.
Zavier Warren SS from Central Michigan is a guy I saw on the Cape last year after watching him on TV in the NCAA post season (he helped turn CM into a really good team two straight years). He'll prob need to move off SS, but he's even caught some games. Like his swing, and I think power will come for him.
I really liked Trei Cruz last year as a day 3 guy, and was surprised teams weren't more aggressive with him. Switch-hitter with obvious pedigree, I just like his fit/floor with the org that has some rawness up the middle.
And to continue with the theme, Hayden Cantrelle is another switching hitting college SS and Cape league standout, from Louisiana Lafayette. Prob the best chance to stick at SS of this trio. Got off to a rough start this spring, but someone I would say has a similar, if not slightly better profiles to Yankees '19 second rounder Josh Smith, who went 67th overall, or Beau Phillip, who went 60th overall to the Braves,.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 9, 2020 16:03:04 GMT -5
Some draft strategy thoughts: First, I think the Red Sox will take the “best player available” given that player is available at or near the slot amount of $3.6M. That said, I think the BPA approach quite honestly comes off better in theory than in practice. How often are you in a situation in which there is a clear best player available when taking into account 1) college vs. HS, 2) position player vs. pitcher (not to mention comparing different positions), and 3) differing opinions among the decision-makers? I think the earlier you are in the draft, the easier it is to operate this way. For example, someone’s board may clearly have Torkelson in a tier of his own as say a FV60 player, with guys like Austin Martin and Asa Lacy in a next FV55 tier. How much further do you have to go though, before you’re picking between a number of guys all in the same space? The middle of the 1st round? 2nd round? So to be clear, at pick #17, it’s very possible the Sox identify a clear BPA available (PCA? Bitsko?), and they should go get that guy. If this isn’t the case though, I want to consider the possibility of selecting the guy in the available tier who creates the most savings to spend on later picks. So for example, let’s pretend it’s our turn to pick, there are a handful of players on the same FV45+ tier according to the internal evaluations, and the Red Sox have knowledge that one of these guys is willing to sign underslot at $3.0M (i.e., the signing bonus that falls between picks #22 and #23). Consider that if our 1st round pick were to sign for $3.0M, we could pull off the following scenarios: - Sign our 3nd rounder for ~$1.5M and our 4th & 5th rounders at slot. - Sign our 3nd and 4th rounders for ~1.0M each and our 5th rounder at slot. - Sign our 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders for ~$800K each. If the Red Sox are anticipating that HS players are more likely to drop in this draft compared to previous drafts, AND they have some knowledge that a number of guys they like are signable for the above figures, then this could be a nice strategy to implement. I wouldn’t be mad at a draft that used that strategy and then went after some more upside in Rounds 3-5. In particular, I’m really interested in the following HS guys who could be available when we pick in Round 3, although I won’t pretend to know who is signable: Kevin Parada David Calabrese Petey Halpin Kala’i Rosario Coby Mayo Harold Coll I would be pretty excited about a draft that netted us a high-floor, medium-upside college pitcher in Round 1 (think Tanner Burns), with a couple of HS upside options in Rounds 3-4 (let's say Parada + Halpin). That sounds good in theory but wether I would feel good about it depends on who the guy they are saving money on is and who is on the board available. If the guy still has upside i’d prolly be ok. Looking over that BA list there are a few guys in the 23-40 range that have upside. A guy that if the Red Sox were picking late 1st I would have been really interested is Masyn Wynn, guy sounds like an absolute tool shed. The fact that they would have to wait all the way to the 3rd round to spend the savings is the problem here, too many variable at play here. I think this would be something were their preferences get completely demolish in front of them, which could happen. I still remember when they selected Ball there was video of their draft room and Cherington was saying “he’s BPA” but not that enthusiastically. They need to be prepared for that and at that point this strategy makes sense. Another I’ve seen thrown around is saving in the 3-5 slot to pump your 2nd pick basically making it a two man draft. In the Red Sox case they would save in rounds 4 and 5 to bump up their 3rd round pick I can get behind that too.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 9, 2020 16:39:24 GMT -5
Tyler (San Diego): Are you able to speak about Cavalli’s fastball. I’ve heard it has movement and there is some deception and high end velocity so there is a little puzzlement in the industry as to why it’s currently a little hittable. I’m just regurgitating Law and others so do you have any thoughts? PS Great job on Soxprospects the other day much appreciated:)
Carlos Collazo: I've heard mixed reports on his fastball. I think the data on the fastball is good and lately I've heard analytical departments are excited about the pitch. However I saw him last summer and the pitch was pretty flat and got hit around at high velocities. I don't see a ton of deception and that's the feedback that I got from scouts as well... It could be a case where analytics people see some underlying trait that they like, and teams think they can create more movement or help him take another step with the pitch at the next level. Personally, I didn't see a pitch with a lot of movement and I think his arm action is so clean it hurts his deception instead of helping it.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 9, 2020 16:47:47 GMT -5
Wonder if this was a hint as to what to expect in round 5. You cut a deal for $3M in the 1st round, pencil in 150K in round 5, and you have just about $2M to play with between your 3rd and 4th rounders. Kind of like that distribution.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 9, 2020 20:04:42 GMT -5
Not Tyler (San Diego): Do you have a Comp for PCA if the power he showed this spring is legit and he hits his ceiling? I’ve heard JBJ whom I love but I thought if it all broke right PCA would probably show a higher average and steal total than my man JBJ.
Kyle Glaser: I'm going to stay away from comps for now. Crow-Armstrong projects to be a better hitter than Jackie Bradley for sure though, somewhere in the .270 range who will surpass that in his best years.
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Post by soxfan101 on Jun 9, 2020 20:50:32 GMT -5
Not Tyler (San Diego): Do you have a Comp for PCA if the power he showed this spring is legit and he hits his ceiling? I’ve heard JBJ whom I love but I thought if it all broke right PCA would probably show a higher average and steal total than my man JBJ. Kyle Glaser: I'm going to stay away from comps for now. Crow-Armstrong projects to be a better hitter than Jackie Bradley for sure though, somewhere in the .270 range who will surpass that in his best years. Sean Casey is Bradford's article mentioned Scott Posednik and Adam Easton. I like the Posednik comp
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 9, 2020 21:11:33 GMT -5
Much appreciated big man
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 10, 2020 1:08:23 GMT -5
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jun 10, 2020 9:55:52 GMT -5
It seems like there has been buzz around pretty much every Red Sox target (Hassell, Abel, PCA, Cavalli, Crochet) being gone by 17 but if that happens, someone has to fall, right? Maybe Mitchell? Just seems unlikely they all go so high, especially with teams likely to be more conservative. PCA will be available. Bitsco!!!! Ed Howard and Jared Kelley I really like as well. I could tolerate a catching prospect as well. Our 3rd round pick may be as good as our first two 2nd round picks last year.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 11, 2020 18:41:33 GMT -5
I was watching some 2020 prospect footage this morning, and the though of Blaze Jordan smashing windshields in the parking lot behind the monster made me forget all about Sale. Can we please talk this into fruition? We did it!
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 11, 2020 21:54:34 GMT -5
I was watching some 2020 prospect footage this morning, and the though of Blaze Jordan smashing windshields in the parking lot behind the monster made me forget all about Sale. Can we please talk this into fruition? We did it! So many surprises in a tiny 4 round draft. A middle infielder with good glove and plus bat (best HS bat in the draft?). A good bat, huge power DH/1B. Both of them young, excited and exciting. Two successful but not fully formed college pitchers with upside. Now for the UDFA. IMO this strange draft necessitated what may be considered a strange strategy, with the overall result stronger than the sum of its parts; it holds lots of promise, which is all that can be expected from prospects and drafts. The lower levels of the Sox system just got even better.
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