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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2020 15:07:31 GMT -5
That Keith Law snippet is pretty embarrassing. He's "almost certain" Yorke would have been available in the third. Does that mean he would lay 20-1 odds? Because he talked to four people still employed by MLB? Okay, sure. The history of Mississippi position players is irrelevant. The last two pitchers were consensus reasonable picks and he dismisses them by picking the worst factoids he can find, which everyone already knew about. It also completely misses the point that Yorke wouldn't have been signable in the 3rd. To do so, we would have needed to find another wildly underslot pick in the 1st to afford Yorke in the 3rd....even then, the math probably doesn't add up.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 12, 2020 15:34:37 GMT -5
The team played their hand - a very light one what with the lost #2 and the 5-round limit - very well I thought. Go cryptic in the first round, then pick and choose candidates that fit into the expanded budget with an emphasis on upside. Not bad, all in all.
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Post by philarhody on Jun 12, 2020 16:01:52 GMT -5
If they really wanted Jordan, they still could’ve picked Mitchell, or Bitsko, or PCA and then signed a couple nobodies from Durfee high school for 30 grand each in the 4th and 5th round. The fact that they didn’t go this route, means either 1. they really thought yorke was worth using a 1st on, 2. they thought there’d be more talent available In 4th and 5th round, 3. they really like Drohan and Wu- Yelland (lefties throwing mid-90’s with some stuff ain’t bad) or 4. Some combo of each. Vermont literally just detailed how this probably isn't true with Mitchell or PCA, it is DEFINITELY not true with Bitsko. So Jordan won’t sign for 2 million? Seems unlikely
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Post by Coreno on Jun 12, 2020 16:34:31 GMT -5
Vermont literally just detailed how this probably isn't true with Mitchell or PCA, it is DEFINITELY not true with Bitsko. So Jordan won’t sign for 2 million? Seems unlikely If you sign a guy at or above slot at 17, you don't have 2 mill left...
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Post by Guidas on Jun 12, 2020 16:37:41 GMT -5
That Keith Law snippet is pretty embarrassing. He's "almost certain" Yorke would have been available in the third. Does that mean he would lay 20-1 odds? Because he talked to four people still employed by MLB? Okay, sure. The history of Mississippi position players is irrelevant. The last two pitchers were consensus reasonable picks and he dismisses them by picking the worst factoids he can find, which everyone already knew about. It also completely misses the point that Yorke wouldn't have been signable in the 3rd. To do so, we would have needed to find another wildly underslot pick in the 1st to afford Yorke in the 3rd....even then, the math probably doesn't add up. Or they could’ve just grabbed Crow-Armstrong in the first, who has an identical (actually higher-rated) hit tool, 60-70 speed, plus defensive ability and plays a higher value position. But yeah, OK.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 12, 2020 16:44:18 GMT -5
I stand by my assessment that this draft will yield as many MLB regulars as the 2009 draft, if not fewer. Getting 1 MLB regular out of a 4-person draft would be a huge win lmao Who’s the regular in that class? I see a sub-1 fWAR reliever (which I believe is replacement level or less) but I may be missing someone.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 12, 2020 16:45:08 GMT -5
I do not expect any publication to praise the draft the Red Sox had given they went against the grain it was a given.
I would 1000% rather the team trust the views of their scouts if not then why even have them? Just pay Keith Law to crowd source our draft board and tell us who to draft.
I think it has been lost in this is that the Red Sox really think this guy is worth the 17th pick, that they could save money is secondary in their evaluation, it’s not the driving force. We gonna find out if they were right.
The criticism is fine I’m sure Bloom and company can handle it.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 12, 2020 16:46:47 GMT -5
It also completely misses the point that Yorke wouldn't have been signable in the 3rd. To do so, we would have needed to find another wildly underslot pick in the 1st to afford Yorke in the 3rd....even then, the math probably doesn't add up. Or they could’ve just grabbed Crow-Armstrong in the first, who has an identical (actually higher-rated) hit tool, 60-70 speed, plus defensive ability and plays a higher value position. But yeah, OK. Do you think Red Sox scouts never saw PCA?
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2020 16:46:49 GMT -5
It also completely misses the point that Yorke wouldn't have been signable in the 3rd. To do so, we would have needed to find another wildly underslot pick in the 1st to afford Yorke in the 3rd....even then, the math probably doesn't add up. Or they could’ve just grabbed Crow-Armstrong in the first, who has an identical (actually higher-rated) hit tool, 60-70 speed, plus defensive ability and plays a higher value position. But yeah, OK. I'm not advocating for what the Sox did....to be honest, I'd prefer a draft that had PCA as our first pick. I'm just pointing out that Keith Law's logic is silly here.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 12, 2020 17:05:03 GMT -5
Or they could’ve just grabbed Crow-Armstrong in the first, who has an identical (actually higher-rated) hit tool, 60-70 speed, plus defensive ability and plays a higher value position. But yeah, OK. Do you think Red Sox scouts never saw PCA? I believe they did, but they somehow think they’re smarter than all MLB front offices, all the hired guns (BA, Law, etc.), and the two college coaches I know - one D1 One DIII. Time will tell, but my confidence of this is very, very low. On the flip-side, I think the Red Sox had the most 2020 draft conceivable, so there’s that...
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 12, 2020 17:53:51 GMT -5
Do you think Red Sox scouts never saw PCA? I believe they did, but they somehow think they’re smarter than all MLB front offices, all the hired guns (BA, Law, etc.), and the two college coaches I know - one D1 One DIII.Time will tell, but my confidence of this is very, very low. On the flip-side, I think the Red Sox had the most 2020 draft conceivable, so there’s that... If you are not ok with that then why even have a scouting department. Just pay someone to crowd source a board and tell them who to draft. Let the record show they should have drafted Tyler Sordestrom.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2020 18:30:14 GMT -5
If they'd drafted Crow-Armstrong they'd have gotten a much worse player in the third round. It's not simply whether they liked Yorke more than Crow-Armstrong (maybe they did, but they probably didn't), it's that they liked what they could get with the savings more than the difference between the two. It's like an auction-style fantasy draft - you might think Mike Trout is better than Mookie Betts, but also if the bidding gets too high for Mike Trout decide to buy Mookie Betts and use that savings for a huge upgrade with the next guy.
------
This is a little bit off-topic, but I do wish there was draft pick trading. In football, if there's no one at #17 you value and your next pick isn't until #89, you trade down X number of spots and the team that loves the NFL equivalent of PCA gets him. And that's more fun for fans too, right?
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Post by kman22 on Jun 12, 2020 18:59:07 GMT -5
I believe they did, but they somehow think they’re smarter than all MLB front offices, all the hired guns (BA, Law, etc.), and the two college coaches I know - one D1 One DIII.Time will tell, but my confidence of this is very, very low. On the flip-side, I think the Red Sox had the most 2020 draft conceivable, so there’s that... If you are not ok with that then why even have a scouting department. Just pay someone to crowd source a board and tell them who to draft. Let the record show they should have drafted Tyler Sordestrom. I thought I saw that Soderstrom agreed to a deal with the A's that was well overslot?
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Post by Guidas on Jun 12, 2020 20:10:00 GMT -5
If they'd drafted Crow-Armstrong they'd have gotten a much worse player in the third round. It's not simply whether they liked Yorke more than Crow-Armstrong (maybe they did, but they probably didn't), it's that they liked what they could get with the savings more than the difference between the two. It's like an auction-style fantasy draft - you might think Mike Trout is better than Mookie Betts, but also if the bidding gets too high for Mike Trout decide to buy Mookie Betts and use that savings for a huge upgrade with the next guy. ------ This is a little bit off-topic, but I do wish there was draft pick trading. In football, if there's no one at #17 you value and your next pick isn't until #89, you trade down X number of spots and the team that loves the NFL equivalent of PCA gets him. And that's more fun for fans too, right? I was truly hoping for draft pick trading as a salve to the whole situation. It would be one way for bad teams to get better quickly by acquiring MLB or MLB-ready players. And it would add real excitement to the draft I think the whole draft is a mess, anyway. If it were up to me the top 10 teams would go into a lottery for the top 10 positions, but every team would get the exact same cash allotment and trades in the first 4 rounds would be allowed. That would keep teams from tanking and still give them the ability to pay over slot on a few players and trade picks no matter where they draft. But that’s just me.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 12, 2020 21:28:30 GMT -5
Yeah, you always know a college coach or two. Maybe you should get to know the Vanderbilt coach who recruited the hell out of Yorke and said he had the best hit tool of all the high school prospects. I feel good about that.
I have no idea about any of these guys, but I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the Sox scouts over the BA's, BP's FG's of the world. They might be right, they might be wrong. But so many seem to think the rankings are the be all end all. Maybe not.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 12, 2020 21:46:44 GMT -5
Yeah, you always know a college coach or two. Maybe you should get to know the Vanderbilt coach who recruited the hell out of Yorke and said he had the best hit tool of all the high school prospects. I feel good about that. I have no idea about any of these guys, but I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the Sox scouts over the BA's, BP's FG's of the world. They might be right, they might be wrong. But so many seem to think the rankings are the be all end all. Maybe not. Well, I've worked at four universities and a med school over the last 25 years so I know more than two, but the two baseball coaches I know and have stayed in touch with are great resources for me. I don't know the Vandy coach, but if that's my next stop, I'll make sure to look him up.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 12, 2020 21:48:24 GMT -5
I have no idea about any of these guys, but I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the Sox scouts over the BA's, BP's FG's of the world. They might be right, they might be wrong. But so many seem to think the rankings are the be all end all. Maybe not. I don’t believe anyone here is questioning the quality of Sox Scouting Department or trying to hold up any of the publications perspectives on these players as being superior (but they do great work on what resources that they have, so please refrain from beating down on them) to that of any Major League Front Office. It just looks like the Front Office decided that taking two 2nd round quality guys was a better strategy than getting a legit 1st rounder and a possibly under-slot 3rd rounder. I think that being skeptical of that decision is a fair position. The hit rate may be low on consensus 1st round types, but they are still significantly higher than for players taken afterwards.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 12, 2020 22:28:44 GMT -5
Getting 1 MLB regular out of a 4-person draft would be a huge win lmao Who’s the regular in that class? I see a sub-1 fWAR reliever (which I believe is replacement level or less) but I may be missing someone. In which class? 2009 or this current one? I didn't even look at the 2009 class you were referring to because it's irrelevant and I don't care. You don't know that there won't be any regulars from this class because you didn't know a single thing about any of these guys before they were picked. Just say you don't like the pick and leave it at that, you can't say with any certainty that you know the outcome of their careers because of one bad draft 10 years ago.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 13, 2020 7:58:46 GMT -5
Yeah, you always know a college coach or two. Maybe you should get to know the Vanderbilt coach who recruited the hell out of Yorke and said he had the best hit tool of all the high school prospects. I feel good about that. I have no idea about any of these guys, but I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the Sox scouts over the BA's, BP's FG's of the world. They might be right, they might be wrong. But so many seem to think the rankings are the be all end all. Maybe not. Well, I've worked at four universities and a med school over the last 25 years so I know more than two, but the two baseball coaches I know and have stayed in touch with are great resources for me. I don't know the Vandy coach, but if that's my next stop, I'll make sure to look him up. Should have added italics to the first part - I know you have a legit college coach source or four. Good luck with that Vanderbilt job, we need someone there. Honestly, as Toboni said, it appears the Sox scouts were more diligent with Yorke. They've seen him in person far more often and more recently than any of the outlets. We'll see if they were right.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 13, 2020 9:33:14 GMT -5
OK Yorke was listed at 139 in this year's draft following shoulder surgery and little opportunity to see him play this year...But where would he have ranked had the injury/surgery not occurred? Is the injury fully recoverable?
If he would have ranked higher but for and the injury will heal, and he will sign significantly under slot, so that we can sign Jordan, well then...
BTW, did Jordan, he of prodigious power, slide to the third round because of presumed contract demands, ability concerns...Both?
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Post by outofleftfield on Jun 13, 2020 9:48:44 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Jun 13, 2020 19:52:24 GMT -5
Well, I've worked at four universities and a med school over the last 25 years so I know more than two, but the two baseball coaches I know and have stayed in touch with are great resources for me. I don't know the Vandy coach, but if that's my next stop, I'll make sure to look him up. Should have added italics to the first part - I know you have a legit college coach source or four. Good luck with that Vanderbilt job, we need someone there. Honestly, as Toboni said, it appears the Sox scouts were more diligent with Yorke. They've seen him in person far more often and more recently than any of the outlets. We'll see if they were right. Vandy wouldn’t be bad! I’ve yet to work for an SEC school, but that one, Georgia, or Tennessee would be the prime candidates! We can only hope for Yorke. I genuinely hope I’m wrong on him.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 13, 2020 23:31:43 GMT -5
Should have added italics to the first part - I know you have a legit college coach source or four. Good luck with that Vanderbilt job, we need someone there. Honestly, as Toboni said, it appears the Sox scouts were more diligent with Yorke. They've seen him in person far more often and more recently than any of the outlets. We'll see if they were right. Vandy wouldn’t be bad! I’ve yet to work for an SEC school, but that one, Georgia, or Tennessee would be the prime candidates! We can only hope for Yorke. I genuinely hope I’m wrong on him. We all do....
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 15, 2020 11:05:37 GMT -5
If they'd drafted Crow-Armstrong they'd have gotten a much worse player in the third round. It's not simply whether they liked Yorke more than Crow-Armstrong (maybe they did, but they probably didn't), it's that they liked what they could get with the savings more than the difference between the two. It's like an auction-style fantasy draft - you might think Mike Trout is better than Mookie Betts, but also if the bidding gets too high for Mike Trout decide to buy Mookie Betts and use that savings for a huge upgrade with the next guy. ------ This is a little bit off-topic, but I do wish there was draft pick trading. In football, if there's no one at #17 you value and your next pick isn't until #89, you trade down X number of spots and the team that loves the NFL equivalent of PCA gets him. And that's more fun for fans too, right? I was truly hoping for draft pick trading as a salve to the whole situation. It would be one way for bad teams to get better quickly by acquiring MLB or MLB-ready players. And it would add real excitement to the draft I think the whole draft is a mess, anyway. If it were up to me the top 10 teams would go into a lottery for the top 10 positions, but every team would get the exact same cash allotment and trades in the first 4 rounds would be allowed. That would keep teams from tanking and still give them the ability to pay over slot on a few players and trade picks no matter where they draft. But that’s just me. Only issue with draft pick trading would be the whole slot value thing if they kept that. Yes, trading back you'd acquire more picks, but you'd also have to acquire more slot value money in doing so to account for now having more guys to sign.
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Post by kman22 on Jun 15, 2020 11:31:44 GMT -5
I was truly hoping for draft pick trading as a salve to the whole situation. It would be one way for bad teams to get better quickly by acquiring MLB or MLB-ready players. And it would add real excitement to the draft I think the whole draft is a mess, anyway. If it were up to me the top 10 teams would go into a lottery for the top 10 positions, but every team would get the exact same cash allotment and trades in the first 4 rounds would be allowed. That would keep teams from tanking and still give them the ability to pay over slot on a few players and trade picks no matter where they draft. But that’s just me. Only issue with draft pick trading would be the whole slot value thing if they kept that. Yes, trading back you'd acquire more picks, but you'd also have to acquire more slot value money in doing so to account for now having more guys to sign. Would think the solution to that would be you acquire the slot with the draft picks. For example, you trade a 1st for a 2nd and a 3rd. You lose the slot money associated with the 1st (similar to if you fail to sign the player), and then you gain the slot money associated with the 2nd and 3rd round picks. I suppose it's more complicated in the budgeting department and with planning your draft pool spending, but the basic idea feels simple enough.
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