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2019-20 Red Sox offseason
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Post by telson13 on Dec 2, 2019 14:38:42 GMT -5
They're absolutely a contender right now unless you really think that they'll only get one good starting pitcher again. It's still basically the same team that won in 2018. That 2018 team had Sale at his best, Price having the most dominate stretch in four years, Porcello and ERod pitching well, along with Eovaldi best stretch of his career. Add in Kimbrel for the bullpen. The team had so many starters they barely used ERod in the playoffs coming off a 3 bwar season. What are the chances you get Sale, Price, and Eovaldi pitching well and staying healthy? Even if you do, you still don't have Porcello and Kimbrel. Where's your pitching depth? Thinking this is the same team as 2018 basically means you think everything goes 100% right with our pitching. If your being 100% honest with yourself, what are the chances that happens? Except Sale and Rodriguez only pitched about 2/3 of a season, Porcello was his average self, while Eovaldi was very good he only pitched 1/3 of a season with the Sox (preceded by an absolute disaster in the 5 spot, including Pomeranz’s 6+ ERA), and Price wasn’t demonstrably better than last year beyond being healthier. They definitely didn’t have everything go right with the rotation in ‘18...it was a very mixed bag. Everything but Rodriguez went wrong last year. I think there’s substantial upside and relatively little downside for ‘20 as compared with ‘19. Certainly, Sale and Price and Eovaldi are concerning, and there’s an issue of innings and depth subject to health, but there’s also quite a bit of room to be better (even much so) than ‘18. I’m not sure how the likelihood breaks down, but I look at ‘18 as something like 50th-60th %ile outcome, and 2019 as more like 25th %ile. I think the real question (and probably the second-most important behind top-4 health) will be internal depth and the performance/development of Houck, Darwinzon, Mata, and maybe even Ward.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 2, 2019 14:42:22 GMT -5
The Sox, even if they keep Betts, don't really plan on spending money this off-season. I think that's what this luxury tax plan tells us (when they plan to get under).
They plan on cutting more players while adding virtually nothing if they keep Betts.
That means you have a hole in CF or RF, no 5th starter, a hole at 2nd base with your 36 year old (virtually finished Pedrioa) is out until at least June, a undurable rotation, a still shaky bullpen, while having no money to fix any of this.
One projection that have them winning 95 games is one glass half full positive projection. There's probably a thousand models beyond that showing them going way under that projection quite easily. Read into any one of these projections all you want, there's nothing sure of this team being anything more than a wild card team (maybe) next year. Look at the division the Sox play in. That's not changing next season. Put the Sox in the NL Central and then you can convince me otherwise.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 2, 2019 15:03:02 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 2, 2019 15:04:59 GMT -5
They're absolutely a contender right now unless you really think that they'll only get one good starting pitcher again. It's still basically the same team that won in 2018. That 2018 team had Sale at his best, Price having the most dominate stretch in four years, Porcello and ERod pitching well, along with Eovaldi best stretch of his career. Add in Kimbrel for the bullpen. The team had so many starters they barely used ERod in the playoffs coming off a 3 bwar season. What are the chances you get Sale, Price, and Eovaldi pitching well and staying healthy? Even if you do, you still don't have Porcello and Kimbrel. Where's your pitching depth? Thinking this is the same team as 2018 basically means you think everything goes 100% right with our pitching. If your being 100% honest with yourself, what are the chances that happens? If you got a Sale for 150 innings without giving up a 19.5% HR/FB, you got Price like he was pitching last season before he got the cyst for 150 innings, and Eovaldi pitching effective at all for any innings, that would be far better than last season and they'd be over 90 wins already. There's a 24 game swing between 84 and 108 wins. Half of that brings them to 96 wins.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 2, 2019 15:07:10 GMT -5
Good. I can't imagine him having to face 3 batters minimum and face LHB.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 2, 2019 16:34:29 GMT -5
Why is Ryan Weber still on the roster? He’s out of options. At least Kelly still had 2 options
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 3, 2019 11:52:57 GMT -5
Can’t wait to be able to say “Business is Bloomin” and actually mean it
Crickets so far for us
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Post by texs31 on Dec 3, 2019 12:30:13 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2019 12:37:46 GMT -5
That 2018 team had Sale at his best, Price having the most dominate stretch in four years, Porcello and ERod pitching well, along with Eovaldi best stretch of his career. Add in Kimbrel for the bullpen. The team had so many starters they barely used ERod in the playoffs coming off a 3 bwar season. What are the chances you get Sale, Price, and Eovaldi pitching well and staying healthy? Even if you do, you still don't have Porcello and Kimbrel. Where's your pitching depth? Thinking this is the same team as 2018 basically means you think everything goes 100% right with our pitching. If your being 100% honest with yourself, what are the chances that happens? Except Sale and Rodriguez only pitched about 2/3 of a season, Porcello was his average self, while Eovaldi was very good he only pitched 1/3 of a season with the Sox (preceded by an absolute disaster in the 5 spot, including Pomeranz’s 6+ ERA), and Price wasn’t demonstrably better than last year beyond being healthier. They definitely didn’t have everything go right with the rotation in ‘18...it was a very mixed bag. Everything but Rodriguez went wrong last year. I think there’s substantial upside and relatively little downside for ‘20 as compared with ‘19. Certainly, Sale and Price and Eovaldi are concerning, and there’s an issue of innings and depth subject to health, but there’s also quite a bit of room to be better (even much so) than ‘18. I’m not sure how the likelihood breaks down, but I look at ‘18 as something like 50th-60th %ile outcome, and 2019 as more like 25th %ile. I think the real question (and probably the second-most important behind top-4 health) will be internal depth and the performance/development of Houck, Darwinzon, Mata, and maybe even Ward. Our top four made 33, 30, 27, and 23 starts. They had bwar of 6.8, 4.4, 3.3, and 3.0. Yes Pomeranz was bad, but he only made 11 starts. Eovaldi, Johnson, Velazquez, and Wright made 36 starts and they were very good posting 5.6 bwar on the season combined. Really that is 50-60% for you? What is 90% all four starters start 30 plus games and give you over 25 bwar? Just my two cents, but almost every team will deal with injuries. Like it's crazy rare to get four guys making 30 starts, while they are all pitching crazy well. Given that groups overall talent level that is like 90% in my book. Best bwar ever for Sale, Prices best in 5 years, was ERods best to date, best for Johnson and Velazquez, while Eovaldi had the most dominate stretch of his career. I agree there is some upside there, but I wouldn't predict anywhere near 11.2 bwar for Sale and Price. It could happen, but seems very unlikely. They could easily give you the 4.2 bwar they gave you last year or less. What does Eovaldi give you? No more Porcello and ERod likely won't be anywhere near 6 bwar. If our depth is Houck, Hernandez, Mata, and Ward that doesn't make me feel any better. Given the question marks with Sale, Price, and Eovaldi we need great depth. Hernandez doesn't seem close to ready to start given his walks, I've always seen Houck as a reliever, Mata is crazy young and seems a year away from truly helping and Ward seems a year away also. If we are going to not trade Betts to win next year I want less question marks. Like I don't want my season to be over in Spring training because Sale isn't healthy and can't pitch or Price gets injured or Eovaldi is just Eovaldi. Right now I only see a true contender if everything goes just right. I will rethink everything after our new GM builds the team. Maybe he can be creative and fill our pitching depth.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 3, 2019 13:33:12 GMT -5
Except Sale and Rodriguez only pitched about 2/3 of a season, Porcello was his average self, while Eovaldi was very good he only pitched 1/3 of a season with the Sox (preceded by an absolute disaster in the 5 spot, including Pomeranz’s 6+ ERA), and Price wasn’t demonstrably better than last year beyond being healthier. They definitely didn’t have everything go right with the rotation in ‘18...it was a very mixed bag. Everything but Rodriguez went wrong last year. I think there’s substantial upside and relatively little downside for ‘20 as compared with ‘19. Certainly, Sale and Price and Eovaldi are concerning, and there’s an issue of innings and depth subject to health, but there’s also quite a bit of room to be better (even much so) than ‘18. I’m not sure how the likelihood breaks down, but I look at ‘18 as something like 50th-60th %ile outcome, and 2019 as more like 25th %ile. I think the real question (and probably the second-most important behind top-4 health) will be internal depth and the performance/development of Houck, Darwinzon, Mata, and maybe even Ward. Our top four made 33, 30, 27, and 23 starts. They had bwar of 6.8, 4.4, 3.3, and 3.0. Yes Pomeranz was bad, but he only made 11 starts. Eovaldi, Johnson, Velazquez, and Wright made 36 starts and they were very good posting 5.6 bwar on the season combined. Really that is 50-60% for you? What is 90% all four starters start 30 plus games and give you over 25 bwar? Just my two cents, but almost every team will deal with injuries. Like it's crazy rare to get four guys making 30 starts, while they are all pitching crazy well. Given that groups overall talent level that is like 90% in my book. Best bwar ever for Sale, Prices best in 5 years, was ERods best to date, best for Johnson and Velazquez, while Eovaldi had the most dominate stretch of his career. I agree there is some upside there, but I wouldn't predict anywhere near 11.2 bwar for Sale and Price. It could happen, but seems very unlikely. They could easily give you the 4.2 bwar they gave you last year or less. What does Eovaldi give you? No more Porcello and ERod likely won't be anywhere near 6 bwar. If our depth is Houck, Hernandez, Mata, and Ward that doesn't make me feel any better. Given the question marks with Sale, Price, and Eovaldi we need great depth. Hernandez doesn't seem close to ready to start given his walks, I've always seen Houck as a reliever, Mata is crazy young and seems a year away from truly helping and Ward seems a year away also. If we are going to not trade Betts to win next year I want less question marks. Like I don't want my season to be over in Spring training because Sale isn't healthy and can't pitch or Price gets injured or Eovaldi is just Eovaldi. Right now I only see a true contender if everything goes just right. I will rethink everything after our new GM builds the team. Maybe he can be creative and fill our pitching depth. I agree and I'll say what others won't - there really is a chance the Yankees come away with Cole or Strasburg (I would figure on Cole). What does that do to the gap between Boston and New York? Look I get that a lot went right for NY last year and a lot went wrong for the Red Sox, but that was a 19 game difference, even if perhaps in another year that might have only been about 10. The Yankees' biggest weak spot is their rotation. If they finally decide to spend the big bucks - and they should have Severino coming back, that makes it all that much harder to win the division, so you are more likely looking at a wild card spot. Doesn't mean that you can't win as a Wild Card - the Washington Nationals say hello. It just makes it even harder. I think Umass' point is spot on. If the Red Sox are to make a big run with Mookie they should not be cutting their payroll, at least beyond the obvious. I mean, letting go of Sandy Leon to save a few bucks, sure. If they can come up with a creative way to dump JBJ and get somebody in his place that can provide as much value (I'd anticipate a defensive dropoff and an offensive gain) for less money, sure, I'm for that too. But I do think there's only so many bargain basement pickups you can make if your farm system really isn't ready to step in and help and expect success. I mean, unless Chaim Bloom hits the way Theo Epstein did the winter of 2002-2003 with his bargain basement pickups, it's hard to see how they lessen the amount of question marks they have. That said, it'll be interesting. There's a ton of lefty hitting 1b out there from Travis Shaw to Greg Bird to others. There are some interesting starters out their like Walker or Nelson and Treinen, whom the Yankees are look at, is a big bullpen target. But I would imagine in some of these scenarios they're not going to get into some kind of smaller scale bidding war, so maybe that article that Texs31 mentioned means (I don't have access) that the Sox are going to wait and see who's left over in the bargain basement instead of pouncing on their first choice? All of that aside, I agree with Umass regarding the question of what the Sox will get out of their rotation and their rotation depth, plus I do think that Workman might be in for a major regression this year and I wonder who they can get who will pick up the slack. And if they're not going to get a ton out of their youngsters - perhaps Hernandez gets his control to the point he can help or perhaps Houck can help in relief, it's hard to see how the Sox get far with their staff for cheap unless Bloom strikes gold in the bargain basement bin.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2019 14:08:25 GMT -5
That 2018 team had Sale at his best, Price having the most dominate stretch in four years, Porcello and ERod pitching well, along with Eovaldi best stretch of his career. Add in Kimbrel for the bullpen. The team had so many starters they barely used ERod in the playoffs coming off a 3 bwar season. What are the chances you get Sale, Price, and Eovaldi pitching well and staying healthy? Even if you do, you still don't have Porcello and Kimbrel. Where's your pitching depth? Thinking this is the same team as 2018 basically means you think everything goes 100% right with our pitching. If your being 100% honest with yourself, what are the chances that happens? If you got a Sale for 150 innings without giving up a 19.5% HR/FB, you got Price like he was pitching last season before he got the cyst for 150 innings, and Eovaldi pitching effective at all for any innings, that would be far better than last season and they'd be over 90 wins already. There's a 24 game swing between 84 and 108 wins. Half of that brings them to 96 wins. That's the thing about last year Sale didn't pitch horrible and made 25 starts. Take out his first few starts and he was rather good. So you want vintage Sale. Price made 22 starts and 107 innings, so you want 30 starts and you want Eovaldi to pitch well. What are the chances that happens? We had Sale, Price, and ERod pitching well last year and we're out of it by the deadline. That was with Porcello pitching innings and giving you 1.1bwar. He's gone now. ERod likely isn't a 6 bwar pitcher next year. Where is the rest of the pitching depth? Are they going to spend money? There is going to be a huge amount of players leaving that were on that 2018 team. Right now for me they aren't true contenders till they add two starters that can give them innings, get a guy for 1B, get 2B depth, get a veteran bullpen arm, and a backup catcher. They do that and I can see a true contender. A team that doesn't need everything to go just right with starting pitching.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 3, 2019 14:18:23 GMT -5
I know Harold Reynolds is not one of the favorite voices here, but I actually agree with his reasoning on trading Mookie Betts. The front office is possibly about to make a final push to sign Mookie, and I sure hope they can. But if their offer is really fair and strong, and Betts decides to go to free agency, you trade the guy. Has Harold "the Wise" said.....it is not that difficult. If an excellent offer is turned down, you trade the man. Trade the guy to a contending team that could use one year of Mookie? Such as the Red Sox!!!!! I'm not sure what is so hard to figure out about this. One year of Mookie playing for the Red Sox has possibly more value to the Red Sox than for any other team. If you don't trade Mookie, you are not getting nothing for him. You're getting one more full season in a year they should be able to contend for another World Series, in a park where he is much more valuable than in other parks, and when the team has literally no prospects to play CF, when they need two of them. I would absolutely not trade Mookie unless blown away. And I highly doubt they'll get blown away. We're on the same page here.
Harold Reynolds has the reasoning capacity of a head of cabbage.
He's reasoning that if Mookie turns down an extension offer now, then he wouldn't re-sign with the team a year from now. But it doesn't work that way. If it worked that way, no one would have ever become a FA and then re-signed with his team. And it would have been a good idea for every team with a guy in his walk year to have traded that guy.
Players routinely turn down contract extension offers when they believe they can increase their value by having a better season than their last one. They'll even do that when it's wishful thinking. In Mookie's case, he's very likely correct.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2019 14:20:11 GMT -5
Sale had a 4.40 ERA last year and a 2.93 xFIP. The results were terrible, but he really didn't pitch that badly. He pitched the same way he always does except giving up a ridiculous # of home runs. Hopefully the ball is de-juiced and he pitches like he always does and gets the results to match. Price had a great run in the middle of the season until he got the cyst. He tried to pitch through it and had a few clunkers at the end. That seems like a fluke injury that shouldn't affect him next season.
Plus, we cannot overlook at their overuse in 2018. Only ERod had a good season and he was the one guy who didn't pitch much at all in the playoffs. Not a coincidence. This year, they will have gotten plenty of rest and have a regular offseason and be ready to go in spring training instead of in May.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2019 14:33:51 GMT -5
Trade the guy to a contending team that could use one year of Mookie? Such as the Red Sox!!!!! I'm not sure what is so hard to figure out about this. One year of Mookie playing for the Red Sox has possibly more value to the Red Sox than for any other team. If you don't trade Mookie, you are not getting nothing for him. You're getting one more full season in a year they should be able to contend for another World Series, in a park where he is much more valuable than in other parks, and when the team has literally no prospects to play CF, when they need two of them. I would absolutely not trade Mookie unless blown away. And I highly doubt they'll get blown away. We're on the same page here.
Harold Reynolds has the reasoning capacity of a head of cabbage.
He's reasoning that if Mookie turns down an extension offer now, then he wouldn't re-sign with the team a year from now. But it doesn't work that way. If it worked that way, no one would have ever become a FA and then re-signed with his team. And it would have been a good idea for every team with a guy in his walk year to have traded that guy.
Players routinely turn down contract extension offers when they believe they can increase their value by having a better season than their last one. They'll even do that when it's wishful thinking. In Mookie's case, he's very likely correct.
If the Red Sox should trade Mookie instead of losing him for nothing, then that same reasoning would make it so that no team should trade for him. Because you can't keep a player for the last year of control? Stupid. And again, people are valuing Mookie's 2020 season as meaning nothing for the Red Sox. I'm so sick of "you can't let Mookie leave for nothing". It's not nothing. It's another full season of his contributions, which has a ton of value for the Red Sox. If the Red Sox trade Mookie, they should trade everyone of value and do a proper rebuild. Contending teams do not make themselves worse on purpose. And there's no way around the Red Sox being worse in 2020 without Mookie than with him. And if anyone has learned anything about baseball in recent years, you're either contending or rebuilding. In between is the worst decision. I cannot imagine that John Henry and Chaim Bloom won't understand this. What I really want them to do is what the Dodgers did when Friedman got there and used their financial muscle to rebuild while contending. They made several trades where they gave up next to nothing for guys with huge salaries and then flipped them along with a lot of money for prospects. That's how they've gotten to where they are now. That seems to be the best blueprint if John Henry doesn't want a normal rebuild. For instance, you could get a haul of prospects if you sent $80 million with David Price, but next to nothing if you sent $10 million. This is how a team could ultimately buy prospects. I will continue to expect Mookie to re-sign with the Red Sox until the day it doesn't happen.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 3, 2019 15:15:54 GMT -5
We're on the same page here.
Harold Reynolds has the reasoning capacity of a head of cabbage.
He's reasoning that if Mookie turns down an extension offer now, then he wouldn't re-sign with the team a year from now. But it doesn't work that way. If it worked that way, no one would have ever become a FA and then re-signed with his team. And it would have been a good idea for every team with a guy in his walk year to have traded that guy.
Players routinely turn down contract extension offers when they believe they can increase their value by having a better season than their last one. They'll even do that when it's wishful thinking. In Mookie's case, he's very likely correct.
If the Red Sox should trade Mookie instead of losing him for nothing, then that same reasoning would make it so that no team should trade for him. Because you can't keep a player for the last year of control? Stupid. And again, people are valuing Mookie's 2020 season as meaning nothing for the Red Sox. I'm so sick of "you can't let Mookie leave for nothing". It's not nothing. It's another full season of his contributions, which has a ton of value for the Red Sox. If the Red Sox trade Mookie, they should trade everyone of value and do a proper rebuild. Contending teams do not make themselves worse on purpose. And there's no way around the Red Sox being worse in 2020 without Mookie than with him. And if anyone has learned anything about baseball in recent years, you're either contending or rebuilding. In between is the worst decision. I cannot imagine that John Henry and Chaim Bloom won't understand this. What I really want them to do is what the Dodgers did when Friedman got there and used their financial muscle to rebuild while contending. They made several trades where they gave up next to nothing for guys with huge salaries and then flipped them along with a lot of money for prospects. That's how they've gotten to where they are now. That seems to be the best blueprint if John Henry doesn't want a normal rebuild. For instance, you could get a haul of prospects if you sent $80 million with David Price, but next to nothing if you sent $10 million. This is how a team could ultimately buy prospects. I will continue to expect Mookie to re-sign with the Red Sox until the day it doesn't happen. Plus, for reasons I don't understand everyone overlooks the possibility of trading him mid-season. Keeping him for 2020 means you keep him in 100% of scenarios where the team ends up needing him because they're a playoff contender, but still have the ability to trade him in most of the scenarios where it turns out they don't need him because the team stinks anyways. Whereas if you trade him before the season you keep him in 0% of scenarios where the team could have used him. Perhaps Bloom is working out some complex plan that involves trading Mookie to balance short-term and long-term interests, along with the team's financial situation, in which case, okay. But I agree totally that the argument that he needs to be traded just because otherwise you lose him for nothing makes no sense.
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 3, 2019 21:33:54 GMT -5
Robert Murray @byrobertmurray Source: #RedSox in agreement with free-agent infielder Marco Hernandez. They non-tendered him on Monday. 9:09 PM · Dec 3, 2019
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 3, 2019 23:11:46 GMT -5
Good news on Marco. With Pedroia's status for 2020 uncertain it's refreshing to have Hernandez' bat available to fill the void at 2B. Still hoping the Pedey can reclaim his spot in the Spring.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 3, 2019 23:44:43 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on Dec 3, 2019 23:51:39 GMT -5
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Post by swingingbunt on Dec 4, 2019 1:12:55 GMT -5
Doesn't a split deal mean he gets an opt out as well?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 4, 2019 9:32:10 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 4, 2019 9:58:31 GMT -5
I don't really see much in Osich's stats and pitch data that makes me believe he is anything other than a LOOGY, when they should be extinct now. Will be interesting to see what they do with him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 4, 2019 10:07:53 GMT -5
Doesn't a split deal mean he gets an opt out as well? Doubt it. Opt outs and upward mobility clauses are usually in minor league deals. Split contracts mean there are separate salaries for if they're in the majors or in AAA.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 4, 2019 10:11:58 GMT -5
Dustin come on man, just retire and take a golden parachute team job please.
The Sox have the team and the window to go after it this year, forget about the cap for the most part and just do it. If at the midway point they aren't looking good because the rotation is a mess due to injuries or poor performance then do what you need to do, blow it up. Thing is with all the question marks the team could go either way.
Isn't there a direct coorelation between a healthy starting rotation and winning the WS? If the Sox rotation stays healthy and pitches to their ability isn't it one of the best in baseball? Give it a chance don't hamstring it by getting under the cap, it's not like they are losing money either way.
I mean really how many teams go into the season with 3 or 4 guys who could be top 5 in MVP voting along with a potentially great rotation? The timing to get under the cap is terrible but it is what it is. Just go for it as the alternative at this point in time doesn't make sense.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 4, 2019 10:14:17 GMT -5
I don't really see much in Osich's stats and pitch data that makes me believe he is anything other than a LOOGY, when they should be extinct now. Will be interesting to see what they do with him. Liam Hendricks was about as fringy as Osich coming into 2019 so, truly, who knows?
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