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2019-20 Red Sox offseason
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 6, 2019 14:39:59 GMT -5
"probably"
fin
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2019 15:24:58 GMT -5
Definitely seems worth punting the 2020 season for.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 6, 2019 16:36:02 GMT -5
I mean, a 99.9999% probability is still a probability, I suppose?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 6, 2019 17:06:44 GMT -5
It's poorly worded in the article. What is meant is that he would probably be their best defensive OFer which would lead to a move to CF and allow their other OFers to play the corners where they would be stronger defensively.
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Post by seadogs34 on Dec 6, 2019 17:28:18 GMT -5
Dustin come on man, just retire and take a golden parachute team job please. The Sox have the team and the window to go after it this year, forget about the cap for the most part and just do it. If at the midway point they aren't looking good because the rotation is a mess due to injuries or poor performance then do what you need to do, blow it up. Thing is with all the question marks the team could go either way. Isn't there a direct coorelation between a healthy starting rotation and winning the WS? If the Sox rotation stays healthy and pitches to their ability isn't it one of the best in baseball? Give it a chance don't hamstring it by getting under the cap, it's not like they are losing money either way.
I mean really how many teams go into the season with 3 or 4 guys who could be top 5 in MVP voting along with a potentially great rotation? The timing to get under the cap is terrible but it is what it is. Just go for it as the alternative at this point in time doesn't make sense. Here's the thing, even if money is the ONLY concern... you could shed so much more payroll by letting Price/Sale re-establish their value a little. There's no "trade these aging pitchers before they get hurt and their value tanks" play here; they both ended their seasons hurt and their value is currently tanked. And if you are going to bring those guys back, it means you're probably not going to have a super active off-season in general, at least not in terms of big money moving around. It sure isnt Pedrioa's fault that Dombrowski blew the 'budget' out of the water on guys that have not aged well in their deals. We shouldn't be looking for him to save the Red Sox from tax implications.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2019 18:27:30 GMT -5
Um no. Baseball is as far away from basketball as it gets. More likely, he'd be what Mike Trout is for the Angels.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 6, 2019 18:45:50 GMT -5
Definitely seems worth punting the 2020 season for. I don't think those are massive offers but they aren't chopped liver either. Lodol would likely become our #1 prospect and Richardson has a big arm. Two very good high upside pitchers. Yet Winker looks like a guy who should be part of a platoon at 1B or DH. Lopez looks like a Porcello type guy that will give you innings but have up and down seasons. Dunning looked very good till he had TJ surgery in 2018. If you trust that Dunning is healthy you could have two starters by 2021. Not thrilled with Basbe but he has upside. I'm not big on Winker or Basbe and trading for pitching is risky. Yet there is some rather good upside with both trades.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 6, 2019 19:06:50 GMT -5
Would like to encourage folks to post in topic-specific threads whenever possible, and not be afraid to start new ones! Things easily get lost in these mega-threads (they're pet peeves of several of us on the staff). Don't worry about something being too mundane for its own thread or something.
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Post by lennsakata on Dec 7, 2019 0:30:52 GMT -5
Possibly dumb question...Does the luxury tax toll at the end of the season or the beginning as a pro rated hit? In theory could the sox stay where they are or get their total salary down A little closer to the 208 mil or whatever the amount is they need to avoid, then if they decide to bail on the season in July, save that amount by dealing players? Essentially go for it, then if they are 6-7 games out Or more in July, deal a potential bounce back candidate like Eavoldi And/or Price with theoretical value gain or cut bait with Sale/Mookie/JDM and avoid the luxury tax by the end Of the year based on total spend being under 208 mil and getting under that amount and resetting?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 7, 2019 1:01:07 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats · At a charity event tonight Chris Sale said he's been playing catch for the last few weeks and he's about to ramp up, start long toss and throwing off the mound. Said he's had a really good rehab and will no doubt be ready for spring training. (@thenewspress)
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Post by orion09 on Dec 7, 2019 2:22:20 GMT -5
Possibly dumb question...Does the luxury tax toll at the end of the season or the beginning as a pro rated hit? In theory could the sox stay where they are or get their total salary down A little closer to the 208 mil or whatever the amount is they need to avoid, then if they decide to bail on the season in July, save that amount by dealing players? Essentially go for it, then if they are 6-7 games out Or more in July, deal a potential bounce back candidate like Eavoldi And/or Price with theoretical value gain or cut bait with Sale/Mookie/JDM and avoid the luxury tax by the end Of the year based on total spend being under 208 mil and getting under that amount and resetting? It’s calculated cumulatively at the end of the season. So yeah, if the Sox trade a player at the deadline, only the prorated amount applies to the cap. That’s probably the best move tbh, because that will give Price and Eovaldi time to build their stock back up. And if the Sox come blazing out of the gate, maybe you don’t sell at all.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 7, 2019 5:36:22 GMT -5
Possibly dumb question...Does the luxury tax toll at the end of the season or the beginning as a pro rated hit? In theory could the sox stay where they are or get their total salary down A little closer to the 208 mil or whatever the amount is they need to avoid, then if they decide to bail on the season in July, save that amount by dealing players? Essentially go for it, then if they are 6-7 games out Or more in July, deal a potential bounce back candidate like Eavoldi And/or Price with theoretical value gain or cut bait with Sale/Mookie/JDM and avoid the luxury tax by the end Of the year based on total spend being under 208 mil and getting under that amount and resetting? It’s calculated cumulatively at the end of the season. So yeah, if the Sox trade a player at the deadline, only the prorated amount applies to the cap. That’s probably the best move tbh, because that will give Price and Eovaldi time to build their stock back up. And if the Sox come blazing out of the gate, maybe you don’t sell at all. That’s right, you don’t need to be under the cap to start the season, only at the end of the season. That’s what I’ve been advocating for all along. The only problem is that with Chavis at 2B & Travis at 1B you really need to replace JBJ in the lineup because the team would not be able to survive with him hitting 190. Even if Sale, Price, Eovaldi, E. Rod & the Bullpen all pitch up to their capabilities & they all stay healthy & the prospects all produce, the team will be out of contention come July if he is not replaced. Of course you could trade prospects for someone like Mancini to play 1B & Villar to play 2B (or others), sign or trade for a #5 SP & a Closer and keep JBJ in CF but, if the Pitching Staff doesn’t pitch up to their capabilities or has injuries, then come July the team would probably be to far over the cap without a massive overhaul to get under. So the way I see it the team has 3 options; 1) Keep the roster as is & go for it. Not really giving them a chance to contend & hope they do. Hope everybody stays healthy (especially the pitching staff) and hope that JBJ somehow, miraculously hits 260 consistently and not 190 for the first half of the season ( or even worst yet the second half after thinking that he could keep it going) and hope that prospects like Chavis, Travis, Lin, Hernandez, Dalbec & others produce, then at the deadline not trade away some pieces to get under the cap or do trade away some pieces to get under the cap & hope the fans believe that they really gave it a shot. 2) Trade JBJ & replace his spot in the lineup with a hitter. Either by trading prospects or a free agent signing. Go with Chavis at 2B & Travis at 1B with Lin & Hernandez on the bench & the pitching staff the way it is & give the team a legitimate shot to contend while preserving the ability to get under the cap if they are out of it at the trade deadline. 3) Trade Betts & others & start the rebuild now. To me option #2 seems like the obvious choice
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 7, 2019 13:19:08 GMT -5
You think they should trade Bradley? You don't say?
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 7, 2019 13:26:32 GMT -5
If the Yankees nab Cole, wouldn't be the best course of action be a reset?
Winning the division would seem like a mountain to climb instead of a hill. The Yankees rotation, lineup, and probably their bullpen will be deeper than the Sox. They have better depth up and down their entire organization right now.
This is one of the best reasons why I can come up with trading Betts. Unless the entire Yankees roster comes down with injuries, that team is going to win 100 games yet again for the third straight year in a row.
It makes sense to reload, while they're up and you're partially down.
Include Benintendi in the package with Betts. Make it a trade where you gut some team's entire farm system away. Include Workman if you want even more value. Think blockbuster trade.
Trade Price for a contract with shorter term or a contract that has less AAV attached with some value/some prospects (Shin Soo Choo? Will Myers?).
Trade the relievers who have 2-3 or less years of control left (Barnes, Workman, Hembree).
Yeah it would hurt 2020, but you would have future money. You could even make a play for Betts next off-season if you do all of this with precision and smarts.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,770
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Post by mobaz on Dec 7, 2019 13:36:35 GMT -5
I'm glad you all weren't in charge ahead of 2018 when the Yankees and Astros were unbeatable. Think of the return we could have gotten for Mookie then!
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Post by soxfaninnj on Dec 7, 2019 13:49:11 GMT -5
The calm before the storm. Enjoy this version of the Red Sox cause things are about to change big time in the next few weeks.. I’m hoping we keep our rf and our lf long term
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 7, 2019 14:02:59 GMT -5
I'm glad you all weren't in charge ahead of 2018 when the Yankees and Astros were unbeatable. Think of the return we could have gotten for Mookie then! The Sox weren't down in 2018. They were as strong as ever and as deep as ever. Just like in 2004. That's when things got fun. This 2020 team already has serious holes, with questionable at best fits to replace them. Chavis at 2nd base? Dalbec at first base? JBJ soon to be gone and no replacement? No 5th starter? Like this isn't even ontop of the depth the Sox don't have. The Sox don't have one rotation arm in AAA not named Kyle Hart, who's probably the next (more durable) Brian Johnson clone.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 7, 2019 14:03:06 GMT -5
It amazes me that no one in the media talks about trading JDM. Ian Browne is the latest guy to mention Betts, JBJ, and the starting pitchers, but not him.
This is all the more puzzling given that when JDM turned down his opt-out, folks did mention the possibility of trading him. It seems like everyone has forgotten about that option but us here.
So let's review that ...
It would be fairly easy to trade JDM, reinvest his salary, and make the team better. Not as good as going over the tax limit by keeping him and signing the same guys (minus the new DH), but this is a net plus:
Holt instead of Chavis starting at 2B Marcus Thames (e.g.) instead of Dalbec starting at 1B
Chavis replacing Travis on the bench, and Dalbec upping his trade value playing 3B for Pawtucket
A better JBJ replacement A better 4th OF / platoon 1B type
Better pitching acquisitions (2 to 4 guys)
- Downgrade from JDM to a new DH
I haven't re-checked the figures to see if they can sneak under the tax limit by trading JBJ and Hembree and going dirt-cheap in CF and with pitching acquisitions, and going in-house at 1B and 2B as I have it above (once you get to May or June; Marco Hernandez would be in the mix before then). I suspect they can. But I'm not going to re-run the numbers because also trading JDM makes the team better, and you get some prospects, too. And you have a solid chance of bringing JDM back a year from now for essentially the same AAV.
Mookie is projected to cost you about $6M extra, and that money could of course buy you even better upgrades in CF, 1B, etc. But he provides $20M or $30M more value than JDM, when you factor in their situational hitting. Mookie at $29M is still a big bargain, while JDM at $23.6M is simply a fair salary.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 7, 2019 14:11:16 GMT -5
It amazes me that no one in the media talks about trading JDM. Ian Browne is the latest guy to mention Betts, JBJ, and the starting pitchers, but not him.
This is all the more puzzling given that when JDM turned down his opt-out, folks did mention the possibility of trading him. It seems like everyone has forgotten about that option but us here. Who is taking a aging DH only with a enormous one year salary/crazy contract with a bunch of opt outs? JDM can block up to three teams that he can pick out in any off-season too (don't know when he gets to chose these three teams however). No one talks about it because I think it's next to impossible. Half the league can't trade for him because he's a DH only. There's only so many competitive teams in the AL who can even afford/want JDM (practically no AL teams like that out there). Add- There's a reason why JDM didn't opt out. He probably had no market.
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Post by kevfc89 on Dec 7, 2019 14:30:27 GMT -5
I'm glad you all weren't in charge ahead of 2018 when the Yankees and Astros were unbeatable. Think of the return we could have gotten for Mookie then! The Sox weren't down in 2018. They were as strong as ever and as deep as ever. Just like in 2004. That's when things got fun. This 2020 team already has serious holes, with questionable at best fits to replace them. Chavis at 2nd base? Dalbec at first base? JBJ soon to be gone and no replacement? No 5th starter? Like this isn't even ontop of the depth the Sox don't have. The Sox don't have one rotation arm in AAA not named Kyle Hart, who's probably the next (more durable) Brian Johnson clone. i think i agree. unless Bloom somehow pulls off a magical offseason (seems unlikely given the issues noted above), once the Yankees officially add Cole it's hard to see a path to the 2020 Sox being near that Yankee team's win projection.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 7, 2019 15:12:52 GMT -5
Key word there being "projection".
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 7, 2019 15:42:23 GMT -5
Think positive everyone on all this Cole to NY so give up the Ghost on 2020. Not all have been able to handle that town.. Randy Johnson, Grey and then throw in with Boras let's hope Cole costs NY something along 35M annually for 7-8Y which will get those guys into a predicament quickly ina cpl years when their own kids begin needing extensions, or facing the idea of being traded away.
There is a lining here not bad and Cole isn't, nor hasn't the past pedigree of Sale, if Sale is healthy.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 7, 2019 16:15:47 GMT -5
It amazes me that no one in the media talks about trading JDM. Ian Browne is the latest guy to mention Betts, JBJ, and the starting pitchers, but not him.
This is all the more puzzling given that when JDM turned down his opt-out, folks did mention the possibility of trading him. It seems like everyone has forgotten about that option but us here. Who is taking a aging DH only with a enormous one year salary/crazy contract with a bunch of opt outs? JDM can block up to three teams that he can pick out in any off-season too (don't know when he gets to chose these three teams however). No one talks about it because I think it's next to impossible. Half the league can't trade for him because he's a DH only. There's only so many competitive teams in the AL who can even afford/want JDM (practically no AL teams like that out there). Add- There's a reason why JDM didn't opt out. He probably had no market. I agree if he had a market he opts out. Plus after reading that ESPN article about Betts and looking at a guy like Jesse Winker. He's the perfect DH type, platoon him with a guy that kills lefties and you could get close to Martinez production for pennies on the dollar. There are a bunch of guys like him. Martinez made sense for us, but he only makes sense for a few AL teams, most can spend their money in better ways. I think we can agree we aren't trading him to the Yankees and they likely pass anyways. If he picks the next three highest revenue teams, he's basically untradable unless you pay down his salary or some rebuilding team is stupid. Even if you find a team, you won't get much.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 7, 2019 18:52:09 GMT -5
Possibly dumb question...Does the luxury tax toll at the end of the season or the beginning as a pro rated hit? In theory could the sox stay where they are or get their total salary down A little closer to the 208 mil or whatever the amount is they need to avoid, then if they decide to bail on the season in July, save that amount by dealing players? Essentially go for it, then if they are 6-7 games out Or more in July, deal a potential bounce back candidate like Eavoldi And/or Price with theoretical value gain or cut bait with Sale/Mookie/JDM and avoid the luxury tax by the end Of the year based on total spend being under 208 mil and getting under that amount and resetting? It’s calculated cumulatively at the end of the season. So yeah, if the Sox trade a player at the deadline, only the prorated amount applies to the cap. That’s probably the best move tbh, because that will give Price and Eovaldi time to build their stock back up. And if the Sox come blazing out of the gate, maybe you don’t sell at all. For us fans this is a great move and business as usual. You start the season and if you're good, you buy or stand pat at the deadline; if you're bad, you sell and get prospects while saving costs. The problem is, if the team is good (or just OK) now it becomes a PR nightmare if the Red Sox sell to to get under the tax, which means that selling is off the table. Assuming we take John Henry at his word, your plan above is NOT an option. We would all like it, but it isn't our money and we aren't making the calls.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 7, 2019 21:21:12 GMT -5
Who is taking a aging DH only with a enormous one year salary/crazy contract with a bunch of opt outs? JDM can block up to three teams that he can pick out in any off-season too (don't know when he gets to chose these three teams however). No one talks about it because I think it's next to impossible. Half the league can't trade for him because he's a DH only. There's only so many competitive teams in the AL who can even afford/want JDM (practically no AL teams like that out there). Add- There's a reason why JDM didn't opt out. He probably had no market. I agree if he had a market he opts out.Plus after reading that ESPN article about Betts and looking at a guy like Jesse Winker. He's the perfect DH type, platoon him with a guy that kills lefties and you could get close to Martinez production for pennies on the dollar. There are a bunch of guys like him. Martinez made sense for us, but he only makes sense for a few AL teams, most can spend their money in better ways. I think we can agree we aren't trading him to the Yankees and they likely pass anyways. If he picks the next three highest revenue teams, he's basically untradable unless you pay down his salary or some rebuilding team is stupid. Even if you find a team, you won't get much. No. No. A free-agent market for a player who's already at his free-agent salary level bears no resemblance at all to a trade market.
In order to opt out, there must be two teams that will offer him a contract that's significantly better than the one he's getting (to offset the downside of a change of scenery from an excellent situation), and at least one of those teams needs to be one that he would be perfectly comfortable / happy playing for, all things considered (including their competitiveness). If there's only one interested team, there's no incentive offer him any more money than he's currently getting.
In order to trade him, there needs to be one team not on his three-team block list (or willing to buy out the clause) that thinks a one-year rental plus a draft pick if he opts out is worth a small prospect package. In reality, as long as they give us a prospect equivalent to the draft pick we'll lose re-signing him, we're 100% happy. Even as an OF, JDM represents a potential upgrade for most clubs.
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