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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 13, 2020 9:57:06 GMT -5
But don’t take it from us, take it from CB
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 13, 2020 10:30:46 GMT -5
Meanwhile, a day and a half has passed and the deal is still just a rumor. I think Pillar's agent leaked it to try to get an MLB deal and/or more bucks out of the Sox.
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Post by dmaineah on Feb 13, 2020 10:34:10 GMT -5
Meanwhile, a day and a half has passed and the deal is still just a rumor. I think Pillar's agent leaked it to try to get an MLB deal and/or more bucks out of the Sox. Hopefully Bloom is realizing the obvious and is having second thoughts (again)
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 13, 2020 10:45:28 GMT -5
I'd love to see the Sox pivot and sign Puig. I doubt it happens though.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Feb 13, 2020 10:58:24 GMT -5
Pretty sure Pillar just needs to report to camp and get a physical
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Post by manfred on Feb 13, 2020 11:02:34 GMT -5
I'd love to see the Sox pivot and sign Puig. I doubt it happens though. I remain confused by the Puig thing: where does he play? Their OF is full, DH is definitely full, Puig is not going to platoon, and Moreland is not likely going to be signed not to play. I am guessing at least to start the year, the lineup is pretty set but for some internal battles (2B, can Dalbec play some at 1B etc).
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Post by Smittyw on Feb 13, 2020 11:24:09 GMT -5
I'm surprised there aren't half a dozen "Sox found something wrong with his medicals" jokes already.
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Post by dmaineah on Feb 13, 2020 11:25:24 GMT -5
I'd love to see the Sox pivot and sign Puig. I doubt it happens though. I remain confused by the Puig thing: where does he play? Their OF is full, DH is definitely full, Puig is not going to platoon, and Moreland is not likely going to be signed not to play. I am guessing at least to start the year, the lineup is pretty set but for some internal battles (2B, can Dalbec play some at 1B etc). Verdugo plays CF, Puig plays RF, JBJ is the 4th OF
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Feb 13, 2020 11:29:56 GMT -5
Right, the $11M 4th OF'er. And of course Puig wants to sign here where there's legitimate competition in the OF and he might not be guaranteed everyday at bats. Plus he's been a "clubhouse issue" multiple times, so perfect for a team that just lost 2 of it's leaders. Maybe they can sign him as the closer?
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Post by soxcentral on Feb 13, 2020 11:59:39 GMT -5
Right, the $11M 4th OF'er. And of course Puig wants to sign here where there's legitimate competition in the OF and he might not be guaranteed everyday at bats. Plus he's been a "clubhouse issue" multiple times, so perfect for a team that just lost 2 of it's leaders. Maybe they can sign him as the closer?They already have one, Eovaldi. You must be new here.
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Post by ortiz on Feb 13, 2020 12:36:31 GMT -5
I really don't understand why anyone would want Puig and his attitude around a bunch of young impressionable guys.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 13, 2020 12:52:44 GMT -5
I really don't understand why anyone would want Puig and his attitude around a bunch of young impressionable guys. Welcome ortiz. Love your avatar
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 13, 2020 12:55:03 GMT -5
Both Pillar and Puig fit, they both hit lefties better than Bradley. I kinda get why Pillar is still available, yet I bet Puig wants big money. I don't see him signing for the likely $3 million Pillar gets. Nevermind after trading Price yeah they likely don't want another guy just like him, that could cause some issues in that clubhouse.
I don't get the issues with making Bradley a 4th OF. He's a guy that could be more valuable if he plays less. Limit his ABs against lefties and give him more time off when he's ice cold. I like the pairing of Bradley and Pillar.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 13, 2020 13:07:09 GMT -5
Sure. But if you don't have current depth, trading future depth is the smart way to do it. I like everyone they traded, I think Espinal in particular is an under-the-radar guy. That was part of the problem though, right? He wasn't finding those guys on the open market in the offseason, so he had to trade depth to get them. All of the trades were individually decent, but he had to make so many of those over the year that the depth of the system was really depleted. But he did a good job identifying the right pieces in-season, which is a credit to him. Dombrowski's strength was "We need X, go find the best player to fill Need X." The in-season acquisitions listed (Nunez, Pearce, Eovaldi) were all that. Dombrowski was very bad at finding creative solutions to anything, which is probably why he was never good at building a bullpen, an area where that is necessary. That's the kind of skill that lends to building the fringes of the roster well - the other 15 spots on the 40-man and those who are lurking just off of it, for example. He rarely made transactions based on opportunity arising (in other words, like the numerous waiver moves Bloom has already made). Even Colten Brewer was a single player they tried multiple times to acquire, likely at the behest of Bannister I bet. He never made moves that were an opportunity to marginally upgrade spot 28 on the 40-man roster and the like. I mean that figuratively because I don't have time to do the research, but also wouldn't be surprised if it were literally true. I think the number of players who have cleared waivers off the 40-man this offseason is telling on this score. If you read Homegrown, this becomes even clearer. We all kinds of figured this out watching him because it was pretty obvious, and the book confirms it. The big difference is DD just signed minor league free agents and didn't move them on the 40 till they proved their worth. I just had to say something, are we really going to trash DD over building a bullpen and having depth for it? That seems to be what he did best in his time here. He signed Walden and Braiser as free agents, while trading for Taylor and Brewer. Maybe Bloom will be better overall, time will tell. Yet I don't get bashing DD for the bullpen. It's the one position that has a ton of depth and a big part of it is those four guys he brought in.
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 13, 2020 14:40:18 GMT -5
Alex Speier is reporting that the deal is in the $4 million range and could be completed as soon as he shows up for a physical.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 13, 2020 16:06:32 GMT -5
Speier made a mistake on his tweet. It's Pillar's deal, not Verdugo's.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Feb 13, 2020 19:00:03 GMT -5
I really don't understand why anyone would want Puig and his attitude around a bunch of young impressionable guys. Welcome Ortiz! You said it perfectly...I don't get why most teams would want Puig where he's been a cancer for the most part. Not the right kind of player to bring in with a younger roster in the works. Although, I would enjoy the inevitable battle between Puig and Eckersley haha. Him and Price always offered entertainment so we do need a replacement.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Feb 13, 2020 19:45:43 GMT -5
I agree. I'd rather have good character guys in the clubhouse than a royal pain any day of the week - especially during the post Mookie & Price transition. When you have great leadership (a guy like Papi or even Pedey) it makes it easier to keep guys in line. I wonder with both DP & MB gone now, who is going to step up and keep the guys in line. As much talent as a guy like Verdugo has, I wonder why the Dodgers move on so easily from him, especially since they had ample opportunity to trade him before. He's young, and I know young guys do stupid things, but I hope the core group will show him the Red Sox way of doing things. This is where veteran leadership is so important. Puig on the other hand has never seemed to get his act together. This trip through free agency is proof that people don't want to deal with the headache of all that comes with him - as talented as he is.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Feb 13, 2020 20:18:10 GMT -5
I agree. I'd rather have good character guys in the clubhouse than a royal pain any day of the week - especially during the post Mookie & Price transition. When you have great leadership (a guy like Papi or even Pedey) it makes it easier to keep guys in line. I wonder with both DP & MB gone now, who is going to step up and keep the guys in line. As much talent as a guy like Verdugo has, I wonder why the Dodgers move on so easily from him, especially since they had ample opportunity to trade him before. He's young, and I know young guys do stupid things, but I hope the core group will show him the Red Sox way of doing things. This is where veteran leadership is so important. Puig on the other hand has never seemed to get his act together. This trip through free agency is proof that people don't want to deal with the headache of all that comes with him - as talented as he is. I definitely agree but see the Verdugo stuff a little differently. I would think they traded him more for being the lesser of evils. He was a good OF that was expendable where they have so many available. Ultimately they traded one for one there so it was easy to cough up Verdugo for a Mookie Betts. I would certainly not look to him as a clubhouse leader..that's for sure. In time maybe, but for now he needs to listen to the vets, and not ruffle any feathers. Puig would probably not be able to do that lol. Good thought on the club leaders. I have an idea of who the alpha will be in the clubhouse, but it could be a lot of guys. The Sox made a smart manager hiring for this season. He is the right choice for a team that will be frustrated some, will be dealing with some new players, deal with losing more guys than normal, and so on. It seems like the players really respect him, and have nothing but good things to say.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 13, 2020 23:58:18 GMT -5
Since the simplest numbers show Puello as better than Pillar, I decided to dig a bit deeper and try to figure out what they're seeing in Pillar that I'm not.
This is very interesting, in an age where teams are trying to tweak the swings of even veteran hitters:
.224 / .250 / .370 (254 PA) to June 17
.263 / .291 / .449 (175 PA) June 18 to August 5 .300 / .332 / .500 (202 PA) August 6 to end
And now I'm looking up the Statcast data for the three time periods. That's a first approximation (the right way is to get a game log and find out where Statcast rather than the results says there's a change in performance, if any).
Here's xwOBA / wOBA:
.275 / .260 .299 / .310 .317 / .349
Keep in mind that some of Statcast "luck" is pulling the ball. All fly balls that are pulled exceed their xwOBA by a good margin, all flies hit to CF underperform, those hit oppo are average. Let me check that ...
Bingo. High-stakes bingo, if that exists. Here are batted ball breakdowns for the three time periods.
First is LD / OF-FB / GB / IF-FB. Next is Pull / Cent / Oppo.
19 / 38 / 39 / 4, 39 / 33 / 28 25 / 27 / 43 / 5, 51 / 29 / 20 16 / 26 / 51 / 7, 57 / 26/ 17
Note that the percentage of undesirable outcomes -- ground balls and popups -- actually goes up. That's apparently a price he was paying willingly for pulling the ball much more, and with power.
He was a 40% pull guy his entire career until last mid-June. This is a pretty dramatic change.
He had a .389 Pull rate on June 17. Had he kept that up, he would have ranked 95th among 135 qualifiers.
From June 18 on he had a .543. Had he done that all year, he would have ranked ... first in MLB. (As it was, he finished 14th.)
I could go much deeper with the Statcast data, but all of that can be summed up with one data point: the $4M they signed him for after looking at the same data I'd be looking at, plus tons I have no access to.
Is Fenway park a good fit for a RHB who is one of the most extreme pull hitters in MLB?
I like this. And I really liked Puello as a 4th OFer; I love him as a guy in AAA as depth.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Feb 14, 2020 2:22:22 GMT -5
Since the simplest numbers show Puello as better than Pillar, I decided to dig a bit deeper and try to figure out what they're seeing.
This is very interesting, in an age where teams are trying to tweak the swings of even veteran hitters:
.224 / .250 / .370 (254 PA) to June 17
.263 / .291 / .449 (175 PA) June 18 to August 5 .300 / .332 / .500 (202 PA) August 6 to end
And now I'm looking up the Statcast data for the three time periods. That's a first approximation (the right way is to get a game log and find out where Statcast rather than the results says there's a change in performance, if any).
Here's xwOBA / wOBA:
.275 / .260 .299 / .310 .317 / .349
Keep in mind that some of Statcast "luck" is pulling the ball. All fly balls that are pulled exceed their xwOBA by a good margin, all flies hit to CF underperform, those hit oppo are average. Let me check that ...
Bingo. High-stakes bingo, if that exists. Here are batted ball breakdowns for the three time periods.
First is LD / OF-FB / GB / IF-FB. Next is Pull / Cent / Oppo.
19 / 38 / 39 / 4, 39 / 33 / 28 25 / 27 / 43 / 5, 51 / 29 / 20 16 / 26 / 51 / 7, 57 / 26/ 17
Note that the percentage of undesirable outcomes -- ground balls and popups -- actually goes up. That's apparently a price he was paying willingly for pulling the ball much more, and with power.
He was a 40% pull guy his entire career until last mid-June. This is a pretty dramatic change.
He had a .389 Pull rate on June 17. Had he kept that up, he would have ranked 95th among 135 qualifiers.
From June 18 on he had a .543. Had he done that all year, he would have ranked ... first in MLB. (As it was, he finished 14th.)
I could go much deeper with the Statcast data, but all of that can be summed up with one data point: the $4M they signed him for after looking at the same data I'd be looking at, plus tons I have no access to.
Is Fenway park a good fit for a RHB who is one of the most extreme pull hitters in MLB?
I like this. And I really liked Puello as a 4th OFer; I love him as a guy in AAA as depth.
This is really impressive. Thank you. Its interesting that pulling the ball can be an advantage to some. I can imagine it would take very particular hitters to make it so. Most likely an upgrade for a player with fringy patience, very good contact and bat speed, and underwhelming power. On the other end of the spectrum we saw what happened to Michael Chavis when he got pull heavy vs what he became using the entire field. I already really liked Puello for a lot of reasons, and I like him more now. Fenway Park should be his friend for sure. I can't believe that he would rank #1 after June 18th (if kept up all year). 14th is still exceptional.
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 14, 2020 7:07:17 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 14, 2020 7:23:29 GMT -5
Since the simplest numbers show Puello as better than Pillar, I decided to dig a bit deeper and try to figure out what they're seeing.
This is very interesting, in an age where teams are trying to tweak the swings of even veteran hitters: .224 / .250 / .370 (254 PA) to June 17
.263 / .291 / .449 (175 PA) June 18 to August 5 .300 / .332 / .500 (202 PA) August 6 to end And now I'm looking up the Statcast data for the three time periods. That's a first approximation (the right way is to get a game log and find out where Statcast rather than the results says there's a change in performance, if any). Here's xwOBA / wOBA: .275 / .260 .299 / .310 .317 / .349 Keep in mind that some of Statcast "luck" is pulling the ball. All fly balls that are pulled exceed their xwOBA by a good margin, all flies hit to CF underperform, those hit oppo are average. Let me check that ...
Bingo. High-stakes bingo, if that exists. Here are batted ball breakdowns for the three time periods. First is LD / OF-FB / GB / IF-FB. Next is Pull / Cent / Oppo. 19 / 38 / 39 / 4, 39 / 33 / 28 25 / 27 / 43 / 5, 51 / 29 / 20 16 / 26 / 51 / 7, 57 / 26/ 17 Note that the percentage of undesirable outcomes -- ground balls and popups -- actually goes up. That's apparently a price he was paying willingly for pulling the ball much more, and with power.
He was a 40% pull guy his entire career until last mid-June. This is a pretty dramatic change. He had a .389 Pull rate on June 17. Had he kept that up, he would have ranked 95th among 135 qualifiers. From June 18 on he had a .543. Had he done that all year, he would have ranked ... first in MLB. (As it was, he finished 14th.)
I could go much deeper with the Statcast data, but all of that can be summed up with one data point: the $4M they signed him for after looking at the same data I'd be looking at, plus tons I have no access to. Is Fenway park a good fit for a RHB who is one of the most extreme pull hitters in MLB?
I like this. And I really liked Puello as a 4th OFer; I love him as a guy in AAA as depth.
This is really impressive. Thank you. Its interesting that pulling the ball can be an advantage to some. I can imagine it would take very particular hitters to make it so. Most likely an upgrade for a player with fringy patience, very good contact and bat speed, and underwhelming power. On the other end of the spectrum we saw what happened to Michael Chavis when he got pull heavy vs what he became using the entire field. I already really liked Puello for a lot of reasons, and I like him more now. Fenway Park should be his friend for sure. I can't believe that he would rank #1 after June 18th (if kept up all year). 14th is still exceptional. Now you have me confused. Those are Pillar's numbers.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 14, 2020 7:52:14 GMT -5
This is really impressive. Thank you. Its interesting that pulling the ball can be an advantage to some. I can imagine it would take very particular hitters to make it so. Most likely an upgrade for a player with fringy patience, very good contact and bat speed, and underwhelming power. On the other end of the spectrum we saw what happened to Michael Chavis when he got pull heavy vs what he became using the entire field. I already really liked Puello for a lot of reasons, and I like him more now. Fenway Park should be his friend for sure. I can't believe that he would rank #1 after June 18th (if kept up all year). 14th is still exceptional. Now you have me confused. Those are Pillar's numbers. I thought that was clear, since Puello's not a veteran, didn't have 600 PA last year ... and this isn't his thread, it's Pillar's. (But tweaked the first line to make it explicit, anyway.)
Re his pull hitting, he did finish 14th of 135 guys for pulling the ball. But there was no point in the season where he was that hitter. He ranked 103 of 157 qualifiers on June 17. From then on, he ranked 3rd of 143 qualifiers, after Kole Calhoun and Miguel Sano. (Calhoun finished 5th on the season, while Sano didn't qualify.)
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 14, 2020 8:22:29 GMT -5
Pillar had a 91 wRC+ vs. RHP after he switched to pull hitting, 77 at home and 104 on the road.
Giants RHB on balls they pulled had a .392 wOBA at home, .422 on the road, so some of that split is real.
Sox had a .538 at home and .497 on the road.
He can start some games over JBJ vs. RHP, especially at Fenway.
(He had a 144 wRC+ vs. LHP, 141 at home and 145 on the road.)
Very good question: who play's where?
1) You want to keep Verdugo in one position, since both CF and RF at Fenway have a leaning curve.
2) In terms of defense, Bradley -> Verdugo -> Pillar.
3) Pillar will be platooning with all 3 guys at times, but mostly with JBJ.
I think you keep in CF, but it's not obvious.
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